John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and The Godfather will come together to offer guidance for the week to come.
It's Week 12, and just a few weeks remain in the fantasy regular season. For more than a few IDP managers, that means the postseason has effectively started. They can't afford any more losses if they want to move on to the playoffs.
Unfortunately, it's also a six-team bye week. So, the Guru and the Godfather are going to kick off this week's column with some potential fill-ins for managers with holes in their starting lineups.
Filling the Gaps
With six teams on a bye this week, we're flipping the script—it's sleeper time right off the bat. There is no shortage of IDP managers who need a spot starter in what may well be a must-win week—give them one on the defensive line, at linebacker, and at defensive back.
Guru: When in doubt, look to whoever plays the Giants for help at the edge position. Yaya Diaby of the Buccaneers was slowed by an ankle injury for the first several games and has not put up the kind of numbers some of us expected based on his strong run late last season. Still, there is potential for an explosion in any given week. With an average of 10.5 combined stops, 2.1 sacks, and .8 turnovers per game, the Giants have allowed the most fantasy points to the edge position thus far. The change at quarterback could have an impact, but Tommy DeVito will be lining up behind the same offensive line.
There is a difference between a sleeper on a normal week and a sleeper on a week with six teams off. This one goes out to those in deep leagues with 14 or more teams and/or big rosters. Devin White has seen a few snaps for the Texans in every game since week eight and has looked pretty good. Last week, White saw his biggest play share with the team when he out-snapped Henry To'oTo'o 50 to 26. That on its own would not be enough to move the needle, but a matchup with the Titans is enough to tip the scale, at least if you're desperate enough. Even after a disappointing week eleven, Tennessee is still the third-best matchup for linebackers in terms of points allowed. For what it's worth, I'll be riding with anyone who gambles on White this week. I'm starting him in the Kings Classic Butkus division, where I am short three linebackers.
Kamren Kinchens of the Rams was not playing much until week nine. Now, the Rams are finding it difficult to take him off the field. Over the last three weeks, Kinchens is 10-3 with 3 interceptions, a forced fumble, and a score. With their situation at linebacker (they don't have any), the coaching staff is turning to their depth at safety to plug the hole. Kinchens is still not playing full-time, but he's getting about 40 snaps per game. What the snap counts don't tell us is that when he is on the field, Kinchens is lining up in prime position to make plays and allowed to be aggressive. It's a "swing for the fence" call, but I like Kinchens' chances of making another splash play or two against the Eagles. It doesn't hurt that he made 8 tackles last week, either.
Godfather: So, it's going to be that kind of week, eh? Diaby would have been my pick as well.
Dante Fowler Jr of the Washington Commanders isn't the player he was back in, say, 2019, but his 8.5 sacks this season are the second-most of his long career. Fowler has multiple sacks in three games this year, including twice in three weeks. He could make it four times this week against a Dallas Cowboys team allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to defensive ends in 2024.
Christian Rozeboom of the Philadelphia Eagles hasn't been the full-time linebacker of late that he was when Troy Reeder first went down—his snap count hasn't eclipsed 65 percent since Week 9. However, Rozeboom turned that 60-ish percent snap share into 11 total tackles last week—and the Eagles have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points per game to linebackers in 2024.
Green Bay Packers safety Evan Williams hasn't posted huge numbers this season, but he's had his moments here and there when the matchup was right. This week's tilt with the San Francisco 49ers certainly qualifies in that regard—the San Francisco 49ers have spent much of 2024 leading the league in fantasy points per game allowed to safeties.
Defensive Line Breakdown
Okay, let's get back on script. In this critical week for many IDP managers, point out one defensive lineman who will blow past his ranking for the season and have a big game and another who will pick a terrible time for a vanishing act.
Guru: He started slowly, but over the last six games, Danielle Hunter of the Texans has come to life. He's coming off a second multi-sack game in four weeks and has a juicy matchup. The Titans allow nearly two sacks per game to edge defenders and the third most points to the position. That's a recipe for a big game by Hunter.
It's not Christmas yet, but this one makes me feel like the Grinch. Maxx Crosby has not recorded a sack or reached double-digit points in a game since week seven. The Raiders have no one to help him, thus offenses have plenty of bodies to throw into the blocking scheme against him. As if that were not bad enough, Crosby faces a stingy Denver offense that gives up less than eight combined tackles and six-tenths of a sack per game to the edge position.
Godfather: I'd love to argue with the Crosby call—but he's my Week 12 IDP Dud of the Week.
The Denver Broncos lead the NFL this season with 39 sacks, and edge-rusher Nik Bonitto has paced the team with nine in his breakout season. However, Jonathon Cooper's 6.5 is nothing to sneeze at, and this week, the league's most prolific pass rush takes on a Las Vegas Raiders team that has given up 33 sacks this season—fifth-most in the league.
At the opposite end of that spectrum, only two teams in the league have allowed fewer sacks than the 15 given up by the Baltimore Ravens. Tuli Tuipulotu of the Los Angeles Chargers has been the highest-scoring edge rusher in fantasy football over the past month, but keeping that hot streak going on Monday night ain't gonna be easy.
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