IDP The Guru and the Godfather: Week 11

John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and The Godfather will come together to offer guidance for the week to come.

We're already 10 weeks into the 2024 IDP season, which means the time has come for the stretch run to the fantasy playoffs. Some IDP managers are angling for a first-round bye in the second season. Others still need a win in Week 11 just to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Guru and the Godfather are here to help with both—some stretch run recommendations and a breakdown of Week 11.

Stretch-Run Stars

We'll keep question No. 1 short and to the point—kind of. With the stretch run upon us, IDP managers are looking hard for a player who can turn the next month into a playoff appearance.

One defensive lineman. One linebacker. One defensive back—ranked outside the top 30 in fantasy points for the season to date.

Who are your stretch-run stars?

Guru: It was about this time last year when Tuli Tuipulotu of the Chargers started showing up. He was not on our radar this season until posting his first sack in week eight. Over the last three weeks, however, Tuipulotu is 10-4-5.5 with a batted pass. This week's matchup with the Bengals is not a strong one but after that, the only game the Chargers have against an opponent not in the top half of the league in points allowed to edge defenders, is in week 16 against the Broncos. Yes, Tuipulotu is technically a backup. He was a backup at this time last season as well. Khalil Mack is nursing a sore groin while Joey Bosa has been injury prone over the last couple of seasons and is nursing a hip issue that's had him on a pitch count over the last two games.  

It seems like every year there is a late season injury at linebacker that give us a short term standout who carries managers to championships. This year's potential golden pickup was not the result of an injury but rather a trade. When the Titans shipped Ernest Jones IV to Seattle, many of us were scratching our heads. Now it looks like the team had a plan in place. Jerome Baker came back to them in the trade, but he is picking splinters from the bench. Instead, it has become the Jack Gibbens show. Not only has Gibbens moved into the lead/every-down role, he's racked up 37 combined stops and half a sack over three games. There is one horrible matchup for linebackers on the remaining schedule, That comes in week 16 against the Colts. All the rest are mediocre or better with this weeks' game against a Vikings squad that has given up the most points to linebackers on the season.   

The only reason Tykee Smith of the Buccaneers ranks outside the top-30 is that he missed three of the last four games with a sore knee. He's been somewhat inconsistent week-to-week. That has a lot to do with all the injuries Tampa Bay has dealt with in the secondary, which has caused his role to change at times. What catches my eye about him is versatility, tenacity, aggressiveness, and most importantly, his normal role. Smith sees most of his work in the slot and is used much like some of the exceptionally productive players we have seen at that position in recent years. The bye week will help Smith get past the sore knee and I expect some big games from him down the stretch.   

Godfather: This might be low-hanging fruit, but whatever—he ranks outside the top 30 right now. Danielle Hunter of the Houston Texans hasn't had the 2024 season most expected. But 6.5 sacks also isn't terrible, Hunter has eclipsed 14 sacks in a season three times, including 16.5 a season ago. The 30-year-old is the kind of player capable of a multi-week tear that will vault him up the rankings—and IDP managers into the playoffs.

I might as well hang around Houston for my linebacker pick. Had Azeez Al-Shaair not missed multiple games with a knee injury, he wouldn't qualify for this list—even if he hasn't been as productive as some expected in 2024. The 27-year-old was back in the lineup last week against the Detroit Lions, and he posted a solid line—eight total tackles, two tackles for loss and a forced fumble. He's going to be the guy down the stretch we thought he'd be all season long.

Better late than never.

There are a gaggle of defensive backs who maybe might be could be huge down the stretch—it's
the nature of the position. Kyle Dugger of the New England Patriots has missed time with an ankle injury, but he appears headed toward a Week 11 return after limited practices to open the week. Assuming he's out there, Dugger's a proven offense on a team whose defense spends a lot of time on the field.

Week 11 Up Front

That's enough long-term thinking—time to get a win this week. Which defensive lineman is fixing to wreck Week 11, and which will break playoff aspirations by having a bad week at an even worse time?

Guru: Everyone keeps saying that Kobie Turner of the Rams is no Aaron Donald. All I can say is that if you look at the production Turner is putting up without his name attached, and compare it to what Donald had ten weeks into one of his seasons, it is virtually impossible to tell them apart. His average points per game ranks third among tackles and he could slip into first after this weeks' game. Only the Seahawks have given up more points to tackles than New England. 

As a huge Myles Garrett fan, the Godfather will give me some grief about this one. I have to call it the way I see it though. We put a lot of emphasis on sacks when projecting the value of edge defenders. If we drill in on the numbers, we find that New Orleans is not particularly stingy when it comes to sacks in general. They have given up 22 on the season. Drilling further reveals that the Saints allowed no sacks to edge defenders in five games, and one sack to the position in two other contests. The only time they have allowed two or more was against the Chargers in week eight. New Orleans is a Scrooge to edge defenders in every other category as well. The edge position averages fewer than four solo tackles against them and no opposing edge defender has produced a turnover. The bottom line is that the Saints have surrendered the fourth fewest points to the edge position. There are few managers in a position to sit Garrett but understand that he has a tough assignment in this one.  

Godfather: He's just doing the Garrett thing to hurt me. Some people. Sheesh.

Every year there's a giant bulls-eye matchup for pass rushers. In 2023, it was the New York Giants and their 85 sacks allowed. This year, it's the Cleveland Browns, who have surrendered 43 to date this season. Twice in the next month T.J. Watt of the Steelers will Godzilla that Tokyo, but this week the honors go to Carl Granderson of the New Orleans Saints.

George Karlaftis of the Kansas City Chiefs has worked his way into quite a few starting IDP lineups in recent weeks—before last week's dud he had sacks in three straight games. But his Week 10 clunker came in a bad matchup for defensive ends, and this week the former Purdue star gets an even worse one. No quarterback in the NFL has been sacked less this year than Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills.