John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and The Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.
We have entered the second half of the 2024 fantasy football season. The speeches have been given. Stock Taken. Good team or bad so far, we’re at the point where every week’s games become that much more important. Where every loss could be the one that ends championship hopes. Where every win could keep then alive. Where any and every edge matters.
The Guru and the Godfather have more edges for Week 8 than a rhombicosidodecahedron.
Here they come. After a little first-half accountability.
Um…Oops?
Now that the 2024 fantasy regular season is halfway over, it’s time for the two best (and most humble) IDP analysts in fantasy football to do their favorite thing—admit they are completely wrong. Looking back at the long-ago days of August, what’s your worst whiff of the year?
Not that kinda whiff. That’s always White Castle.
GURU: I think every IDP prognosticator whiffed on New York Giants linebacker Bobby Okereke, so I don’t feel too horrible about it. The guy put up 90+ solo tackles and was a top-15 LB for three straight years. We’re going into week eight and I still can’t put a finger on why he’s on track for 54 and hasn’t reached double-digit points in a game since week two. Heck, he was the LB7 in 2023 but is currently sitting outside the top-50.
GODFATHER: I have never been more certain in my life that the Guru would do something than him mentioning Okereke. He’s right. 90-plus percent of IDP pundits had him inside the top 10 to open the season—with good reason. And there’s no reasonable explanation why the same guy in the same scheme on the same team went careening off a cliff.
At least Patrick Queen switched teams from the Ravens to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the offseason. But I expected a lot more than LB44 numbers to date this year. First-round talent. Lightbulb season in Baltimore in 2023. All the ingredients were there for a breakout. But his best stat lines have been OK, and his worst have been non-existent. Will freely admit I didn’t see it coming.
Also, nothing beats a 3 AM Belly Bomb run. Ah, to be young and stupid again.
Week 8 On the Defensive Line
Now comes the opportunity for redemption, with some slam-dunk can’t-miss 100 percent guaranteed to be accurate predictions for Week 8. One defensive lineman who will exceed expectations and this week’s biggest bust.
Go.
Guru: I’ve been at this for over 30 years. If there is one thing I’ve learned, it’s that there is no such thing as a 100% sure thing. That said, if I were a betting man, I would put a chunk on Buffalo’s Ed Oliver to have a big game in week eight. He came back last week after spending three games on the shelf, so the rust has been knocked off just in time for the matchup with a Seattle team that allows good tackle numbers and almost two sacks per game to the tackle position. Oliver is one of the game’s best inside pass rushers and it never hurts to have fresh legs at mid-season.
I’m going to stick with the defensive tackle theme for this week and go with Denver’s Zach Allen as my bust. It’s hard to sit a guy that is currently second at a position that is already thin but the matchup is that bad, at least if you have another decent option. Interior linemen are putting up average tackle numbers against the Panthers. On the other hand, Carolina has allowed just two and a half sacks to the interior line positions on the season, and two of those were in one game against the Bears.
Godfather: I’ve been doing this less time but can say with absolute sincerity that the only pick I have ever missed is one I was wrong about. But those don’t count.
What does count? Sacks—and the Cleveland Browns are on pace to match last year’s Giants with a staggering 85 sacks allowed. Jameis Winston is a new variable at quarterback, but he’s not exactly Randall Cunningham and Cleveland’s line play has been abysmal this year. Whether it’s Kyle Van Noy, where he has DL eligibility, or Odafe Oweh (who quietly has 4.5 sacks of his own), both Ravens edge-rushers are going to eat in Week 8—and I say that as a Clowns fan.
Back to Clowns. Sigh. Not even like scary Pennywise clowns. Just…clowns.
So far this season, Danielle Hunter has been outshined by Will Anderson Jr. with the Houston Texans. Hunter’s been fine—just not the top-five IDP force some idiot expected. Both farce and force (Anderson has been lights out) could be in for a slow day against the Indianapolis Colts this week—the team has allowed just 10 sacks and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to defensive ends.
Linebackers Sit-Rep
IDP weeks are more often than not won and lost at the linebacker position. Identify one linebacker who is a sure path to victory, and another who will doom teams to defeat.
No pressure.
GURU: There are good reasons to be optimistic about DeMarvion Overshown of the Dallas Cowboys this week. Coming out of the bye week, he is rested. His main competition for tackles (Eric Kendricks) is questionable with a sore shoulder that could be a factor even if he plays. Then there is the matchup with a San Francisco offense that has been a solid matchup for linebackers in the tackle columns and a plus matchup for the position in terms of splash plays. Add up averages in sacks, picks, fumbles forced and recovered, and the lineback position averages 1.2 splash plays per game against them.
Zack Baun of the Philadelphia Eagles came out of the gate like gangbusters, but the adrenalin has worn off. His numbers have gone down steadily, is nursing a shoulder injury and has a matchup with a Bengals offense that is a bottom-third matchup for his position. On top of that, Nakobe Dean has come on strong in recent weeks.
GODFATHER: Someone talked up Overshown a fair amount as a late-round gem over the summer. Can’t remember his name. Handsome fella. Modest, too.
T.J. Edwards of the Chicago Bears is another high-end linebacker who hasn’t met expectations relative to draft slot, although it hasn’t been as bad as with some others. But this week against the Washington Commanders, IDP managers will get the top-10 player they drafted.
The Commanders are among the league leaders in both tackle opportunities allowed (if you aren’t downloading Aaron Rudnicki’s Excel Tool every week, you don’t really I-D-P) and fantasy points per game allowed to linebackers. If Jayden Daniels sits, they’ll lean that much harder on Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler. Giddyup.
Lavonte David is a Hall of Fame-caliber linebacker—I rocked his jersey at last year’s Kings Classic IDP draft. He’s been fantastic for IDP managers this year, too—top-five in many scoring systems. But the Atlanta Falcons have spent most of this season dead last in fantasy points per game surrendered to linebackers. You gotta start him. But prepare the rest of your lineup for the down week that’s coming.
Defensive Backs Stuff
Defensive backs are crazier than a party co-hosted by The Joker and Aaron Rodgers. But fantasy managers need starters anyway, because. Use your infallible IDP prowess to select one defensive back slated for stardom, and another who will be a massive disappointment in Week 8.
Again, keeping this week easy.
GURU: Jessie Bates III of the Atlanta Falcons has been rather inconsistent thus far. He’s reached double-digit points just twice this season. The last time was in week five, so he’s due. It just so happens that week five game was against the Buccaneers, who are this week’s opponent as well. The Tampa Bay team Bates faces this week will be different, though. There will be no Mike Evans or Chris Godwin but that doesn’t mean Baker Mayfield will be passing less. He is already prone to throwing picks and has five over the last two weeks. I think Bates gets at least one splash play in this one and possibly more.
Kyle Hamilton of the Baltimore Ravens is a little banged up, but that’s not why I am avoiding him this week. It is purely because the Browns have been such a horrible matchup for safeties. Cleveland’s offense has been stagnant. They rarely get the ball to the third level, and their best pass catcher is now playing for Buffalo. I just don’t see much opportunity for Hamilton in this one.
GODFATHER: The Guru is right about Bates. Just saying.
Nick Cross and Julian Blackmon of the Indianapolis Colts rank among the top-20 safeties in fantasy points per game this year, although the former has been the surprise smash in the secondary over the past seven weeks.
Both should be locked into fantasy lineups in Week 8—the Texans are a plus fantasy matchup, and Houston will be looking to get the passing game untracked after last week’s stinker in Green Bay.
Tre'von Moehrig of the Raiders has thrived in a more aggressive role closer to the line of scrimmage—a bright spot in another dark season in Las Vegas. But the Kansas City Chiefs have been a rotten fantasy matchup for safeties for essentially the entire Patrick Mahomes II era. It’s possible Moehrig will make enough run stops to earn a decent line, but if his over/under on tackles was 6.5, I’d take the under.
I hate taking the under. Rooting for failure is bad karma.
Week-Winning Sleeper Plays (Maybe)
Finally, hop on a Purple and grab your Luxome because it’s time to go nighty-night. Even with no byes this week, plenty of IDP managers need a spot-starter. A “sleeper.”
A defensive lineman. A linebacker. A defensive back. More Terrific Trio and less Three Stooges.
Don’t be wrong.
GURU: Sticking with the DT theme, I like Nnamdi Madubuike of the Ravens a lot this week. He’s been way too quiet for most of the season, which means he is ripe for a breakout. There is no better matchup to make that happen than the Browns. As I mentioned, Cleveland struggles to get the ball past the front seven. It shows on the stat sheet where they are the fantasy game’s best matchup for interior linemen. The tackle position averages a solid (for the position) 8.5 combined stops against them. Where I expect Madubuike to make hay, however, is in the sack column. Cleveland is giving up a whopping five sacks per game, including seven to interior linemen over the last four games. Madubuike has just two on the season but he led the tackle position in sacks last year with 13.
When Terrell Bernard of the Bills missed three games early in the season, Baylon Spector stepped up nicely, posting more than 12 points in two of them. As of Thursday, Bernard had not practiced this week due to an ankle injury. So Spector is in line for another start. The Seahawks have been a mediocre matchup overall but they are better when Ken Walker III is in the lineup. Unless Bernard makes an unexpected recovery, Spector should be at least a solid LB3 for us this week.
The Bills are not a particularly strong matchup for safeties, but Coby Bryant may not need them to be. With Rayshawn Jenkins landing on IR, Bryant made his first start since moving to safety last week. He played well on the field and was a stat sheet standout at 7-4 with a pick. The adrenalin has not yet worn off. Call it a gut feeling, but I like the chances of another strong outing from him.
GODFATHER: New York Giants edge rusher Azeez Ojulari has excelled since Kayvon Thibodeaux went down—so much so that he may well be traded before the deadline. The Steelers aren’t as attractive of a pass-rush matchup now (Justin Fields holds the ball too long—always has), but the Steelers offensive line also isn’t particularly good. Ojulari gets a sack this week—and then a new team.
If you actually know who Eric Wilson is, you’re either related to him or an IDP degenerate like us. For eight years, Wilson has been a depth/special teams guy who would make a few starts here and there and post enough big games to be, well, memorable.
He did last week wearing the green dot for the Green Bay Packers, and with Quay Walker missing practice Thursday after a limited Wednesday, his odds of clearing the concussion protocol aren’t good. Gotta love an older guy who just hangs around and then steps up when called upon.
Carolina Panthers safety Xavier Woods is another eighth-year veteran who has spent most of his career on the IDP fringes—even as a full-time starter. But Woods is averaging over eight stops a game over the last month, and the Denver Broncos have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to safeties in 2024.
Fringe guys for the win!
John Norton (The Guru) and Gary Davenport (The Godfather of IDP) have over 45 combined years of IDP experience. Follow John on Twitter (still not calling it X, so there) at @JohnPNorton and Gary at @IDPSharks.
