IDP: The Guru and the Godfather, Week 3

John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

Two weeks into the 2024 IDP season, we're being reminded that in fantasy football, you should expect the unexpected. For every player who has followed the script, there are five who have not, whether it's players no one expected to be fantasy-relevant blowing up or big names that have disappointed in the early-going.

Knowing which of those are temporary blips and which will stay their early course is a big deal for IDP managers. So, before the Guru and the Godfather look ahead to Week 3, it's the surprise players that open this week's column.

IDP Mirages and Slow Starters

Two weeks is still a small sample size. But there's no denying that there are IDPs who have destroyed their expectations and others who have just destroyed hopes and dreams. Which early star will turn out to be a flash in the pan, and which slumping star will have the last laugh at season's end?

Guru: It's not that I think Henry To'oto'o of the Houston Texans will suddenly stop producing. It's that his playing time will evaporate when Christian Harris returns. To'oto'o is giving us good numbers and looks better in coverage than last season, so there is a chance he could impress the coaching staff enough to keep the near every snap role, but it a slim one.

Yes, Lavonte David of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is getting old in football years at age 34. Yes, he is nearing the end of a stellar career. But there is still gas in the tank. He currently ranks in the mid to high 40s in most formats. I just don't see that lasting. He's still a top-20 linebacker.  

Godfather: First, a caveat. There are no guarantees with defensive backs. So, The Godfather can't guarantee that Indianapolis Colts safety Nick Cross can't continue racking up stats and finish as one of this season's surprise stars in the secondary. It's an annual occurrence.

But two weeks into the season, Cross isn't just third in fantasy points among defensive backs after two games—he's leading the league in tackles. Fair or not, Cross gives off something of a Jonathan Owens vibe—and Owens cooled way off after a molten start to the season a few years back.

There is a fistful of edge rushers who could be pointed to as potential rebound candidates after slow starts—that's another annual occurrence in IDP leagues. But IDP managers should also take a breath with Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Patrick Queen. Six total tackles is a bad stat line for one week, let alone two. But Queen has also played every one of Pittsburgh's 117 defensive snaps for the season. So long as those snaps hold. His production will get better—a lot better.

Week 3 Defensive Line Calls

Let's get some wins in Week 3. On the defensive line, which player is about to rack up a two-sack bonanza, and who is going to be all but invisible in the box score?

Guru: The low-hanging fruit here would be Maxx Crosby of the Las Vegas Raiders versus the Panthers, but that's too easy, so I'll pick Cincinnati's Trey Hendrickson. The Commanders have problems on both sides of the ball, and the Bengals are already behind the eight ball at 0-2. It's the third season in a row that Cincinnati has found itself in this position. The first two times, they came out hot in Week 3. I see the Bengals getting up early and Hendrickson pinning his ears back against a mediocre, at best, offensive line.

Under normal circumstances, a matchup of Myles Garrett against the Giants would make him the answer to the first part of this question. The circumstances in Cleveland, however, are not normal. Garrett is fighting through a foot injury that has kept him out of practice through at least Thursday. Garrett has a long history of playing through injuries and is expected to do so again with this one. He also has a long history of greatly reduced production in those situations. 

Godfather: Gotta disagree with the Guru here. After New York allowed a staggering 85 sacks in 2023 (a stat I will repeat ad nauseam until the end of time), 70 percent of Myles Garrett is going to wreak havoc Sunday.

So will Rashan Gary of the Green Bay Packers. After logging a sack in Week 1, Gary posted the dreaded IDP donut last week against the Colts. Sunday the Packers face a Tennessee Titans team that surrendered 64 sacks last year. A quarterback in Will Levis who has already been sacked seven times this year. And a right tackle in Nicholas Petit-Frere, who allowed 13 pressures on 35 pass-blocking snaps last week against the New York Jets per Next Gen Stats.

On the flip side of the matchup scale is the Buffalo Bills. No quarterback in the NFL was sacked fewer times a year ago than Josh Allen, and two games into the season, he has been dropped just twice. That doesn't bode especially well for the IDP prospects of Josh Hines-Allen of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who got into the sack column for the first time in 2024 in last week's loss to the Cleveland Browns.