Our preseason assumptions were quickly put to the test during the Kansas City Chiefs 27-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens in Thursday night's season opener. For fantasy football purposes, no development was more significant than the emergence of Isaiah Likely, who posted 22.6 fantasy points (12-9-111-1) compared to 2.4 (2-2-14) for Mark Andrews.
It's easy to overreact to Week 1 performances, especially in the first primetime game of the season. But Likely looked terrific and Andrews looked like...2023 Zach Ertz, to put it kindly.
Our Joe Bryant kicked off a staff discussion on the topic this morning, which led to a mixed bag of reactions and some measured takeaways to help you make sense of Baltimore's tight end situation. Take a peek behind the curtain.
How worried are we about Mark Andrews? Or a better way of asking it, for a redraft league today (not allowed to use yesterday's stats), where would you rank Likely and Andrews?
Sam Wagman: I would still rank Andrews as a TE1 even after yesterday. He's seeing a high-level route participation (over 70%, a TE1 number), but he's clearly not quite 100% healthy yet. Whether it is the after-effects from the summer car crash or his offseason ankle surgery, he's not all the way back, but I believe he'll get there.
Likely, on the other hand, is a bona fide TE1 whether Andrews is on the field or not. The Ravens tipped their hand by including him on the pre-kickoff poster and said this offseason they have him running wide receiver routes. I think he slots in as their WR2 most weeks behind Zay Flowers and could be the legit version of WR/TE hybrid we thought Kyle Pitts might be.
In rest of season ranks, I'd have them back-to-back as TE6 and TE7, given that we've seen the Ravens hyperfixate on targeting TEs plenty.
Julia Papworth: I was in a panic near the end of the game, but I've since thought about a couple of things:
- After targeting Likely a few times, it was clear that it worked. Why would you stop that?
- Andrews isn’t that far off from a bad car accident. I wouldn’t be surprised if they wanted to ease him in slowly, and instead use a weapon that the Chiefs didn't see coming.
Jason Wood: I updated my full-season projections for each guy for the rest of the season. I knocked Andrews down from 102 targets to 90 targets and bumped Likely up to 92 targets. That would make them TE7 (Likely) and TE10 (Andrews), respectively.
Likely grabs targets I had allocated to the likes of Agholor, Devontez Walker (who was a game day inactive), and a few from Derrick Henry (the Ravens didn't even pretend to want him on the field in passing situations).
To Sam's point, Likely ran fewer routes (24) than Andrews (28), and good offenses go with what's working. One concern I have that hasn't been discussed yet is that the Ravens' line looks problematic, particularly on the interior. The Ravens have kept Andrews in as a blocker at other points of his career when needed, and with Likely clearly being up to the task as a receiver, I could see Andrews running less routes. But that wasn't the case this week.
Matt Montgomery: I have a rule that I don’t overreact to early September. I think if we continue this trend it’s devastating to Andrews' value, but I’d rather be late moving him than early and wrong.
Phil Alexander: Likely is not going anywhere. 70% of snaps, 24 routes, 52% of snaps from the slot, and this route chart.
So now the question becomes can the Ravens passing offense support Zay Flowers (who they clearly want to get the ball to), Likely, and Andrews? I'd say probably not.
If Jason's projections are accurate, they're both TE1s moving forward. But the bar for TE10 is pretty low. It puts Andrews at the top of the same tier as guys like Dallas Goedert and Dalton Schultz from week to week.
If you drafted Andrews as a top-4 TE, and now you have a guy you don't feel great about starting, I'd say now is a fine time to panic.
Bob Henry: It's probably not a major surprise, but my updated projections are similar to Jason's. However, I've been bullish on Likely all summer and drafted accordingly. I had him roughly as a mid-TE2 depending on raw fantasy points, or points per game.
Likely is now at the back end of TE1s...and I'm not sure if that's still too low honestly.
It also moves Mark Andrews back to the same realm - back end of TE1s.
I am sure both of these guys will get to eat. Both are elite in the red zone and not all weeks will slant so heavily to Likely as teams adjust to him.
Like Jason, I moved Andrews down slightly to 91 targets, 60 catches, and 7.5 TDs. I then moved Likely up to 80 targets, 53 catches, and 6 TDs. Likely's catches are more valuable, and both average a healthy YPC, but Likely's body of work is growing larger and it's becoming increasingly clear that he's a difference maker for the Ravens.
Sam Wagman: I think Andy Holloway is viewing the Andrews situation through the right lens.
Re-watched every snap that Mark Andrews was on the field last night. I was the lowest on our show on Andrews coming into the year so I could take a pretend victory lap, but instead, I have a message after watching the film. DO NOT PANIC...here's why:
— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway) September 6, 2024
I added up every… pic.twitter.com/8lOUmbnBf2
Zareh Kantzabedian: There’s a lot of noise about how detrimental Likely will be to Andrews’ value. The bigger cause for concern is that Zay Flowers may lead the team in targets this year. Couple that with the low passing volume, and it will be even more difficult for Andrews to finish as 1st tier tight end.
Summation
We'll close this out by reminding you of the obvious: This was a single game against an opponent focused on locking down Andrews.
In his previous five meetings with Kansas City, Andrews averaged 21.8 yards receiving and scored no touchdowns.
Fantasy managers shouldn't make season-long decisions based on a single outcome. You should, however, aggressively pursue Likely, who, even if he doesn't have finishes as strong as he did in Kanas City every week, will have a more robust role than expected.
But also expect Andrews' role and production to normalize over time, meaning hard decisions will only come if you've rostered a second tight end capable of producing starter numbers. As always, check the Footballguys Rankings and Projections each week as a starting point in making those decisions.