How to Draft from Pick 1.09

Photo: Imagn Images

Draft season is here, and you've landed the 1.09 pick. There is a top tier of eight players that includes Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. If your draft goes according to script, none of those players will fall to 1.09. You will face the difficult decision of which player from the big secondary tier that extends from 1.09 deep into the second round to target. Should you target a top running back or employ a WR-focused approach early?

Draft positions in this series:
1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12

In this article, we'll explore both strategies, helping you make the most informed decision possible. To do that, we'll leverage two powerful tools essential for preparing and dominating on draft night.

First, we'll dive into the Draft Dominator, our supercharged tool for mock drafts and expert recommendations. This tool allows you to simulate different draft scenarios, refining your strategy based on league size, scoring, and starting lineup requirements. With these insights, you'll be ready to outmaneuver your competition when it matters most.

Next, we'll review the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) data, sourced from hundreds of recent drafts exclusively populated by Footballguys subscribers. This up-to-the-minute ADP information will help you map out the likely pool of players available at each draft stage—from the critical second-round decision point to the mid-round picks that can make or break your draft.

By combining the strategic foresight offered by the Draft Dominator with real-world ADP trends, you'll be equipped to execute a winning draft plan.

We are going to dive deep into two different roster approaches from the 1.09, exploring how your draft is impacted if you decide to go with a running back instead of a wide receiver at 1.09.

First, let's talk about who is likely to be available when you are on the clock at 1.09. Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill have no chance of falling to 1.09. If one of these top three unexpectedly slides, taking him is a no-brainer. But assuming the top three are off the board as expected, here’s how the Draft Dominator ranks the top options for pick 1.09 and their likelihood of being available based on recent draft data from the Footballguys Bowl:

• Ja'Marr Chase: 2% chance of being available
• Breece Hall: 3% chance of being available
• Justin Jefferson: 6% chance of being available
• Bijan Robinson: 7% chance of being available
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 4% chance of being available

Of the above five options, there is a roughly 20% chance one will be available at 1.09. Let's see who falls to us in the Draft Dominator mock draft:

We got luck that A.J. Brown went at 1.08 and allowed Bijan Robinson to fall into our laps at 1.09.

In addition to ranking the available options, the Draft Dominator also features a star system akin to Olympic medals. A gold star signals a slam-dunk pick, a silver star denotes an excellent option, and a bronze star marks a solid choice. This system simplifies decision-making by visually highlighting the strength of each pick, helping you stay focused and avoid overthinking in the heat of the draft.

I’ve included the Value-Based Drafting (VBD) column in the Draft Dominator screenshot above because it provides essential context when comparing across positions in your league. VBD ensures that you're capitalizing on the most valuable players at each draft stage, preventing you from reaching for a position when better options are available. 

The two distinct paths here are:

1. Selecting a running back like Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs or, if you get lucky, Bijan Robinson.
2. Selecting a top wide receiver like A.J. Brown or Garrett Wilson.

Let's explore these two separate and distinct paths of attack and see which road leads to a better overall roster. 

Path 1: Draft Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley at 1.09

Bijan Robinson at 1.09 offers a dynamic RB1 with the potential to dominate, combining explosive playmaking with what we hope will be a high usage rate in the Falcons' offense. Drafting Robinson gives you a powerful backfield anchor with both a high floor and ceiling, making him an ideal pick at this spot. We got lucky that Robinson fell to us in this mock. The analysis and draft strategy would be very similar if Robinson did not fall, and we went with our next highest-ranked running back, Saquon Barkley.

Here are our top options in the Draft Dominator for our second pick:

2.04 Derrick Henry

The addition of Derrick Henry to Baltimore's backfield was one of the NFL's biggest offseason moves, and it has significant fantasy implications. Henry, with five 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, now joins forces with Lamar Jackson, creating a backfield that's both powerful and versatile. From a fantasy perspective, Henry's role as the primary workhorse combined with Jackson's ability to keep defenses off balance makes him an even more valuable asset, as Baltimore's offense is set to be one of the most difficult to stop this season. 

3.09 Josh Jacobs

In a recent article titled 12 Bold Takes at Running Back, I opined that Josh Jacobs is the best running back value at ADP:

How can you not be excited about the Packers offense? Jordan Love looks like an emerging star. The wide receiver and tight end room are both deep and talented. The offensive line is solid, and the scheme is running back-friendly. The Packers finished Top 10 in running back targets, and there has been a consistently positive buzz from Packers camp about how much usage Jacobs will get as a pass catcher. We also know he will dominate goal-line touches in what the Vegas linemakers expect to be a Top 10 scoring offense. 

Rounding out the Roster

One of my favorite roster-building strategies in recent weeks has been to build around proven running backs with the potential for massive volume in the early rounds. This strategy works especially well from the back part of the first round, given that Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry are each going off the board in this range. The strategy makes sense for multiple reasons. First, we are getting these backs at a discount compared to previous seasons. Josh Jacobs has an ADP of 31st overall. A player with his profile would have been inside the Top 20 as recently as two years ago. Second, it feels like wide receiver is deeper than ever. The ability to get players the caliber of Stefon Diggs, Tee Higgins, and Calvin Ridley outside of the first three rounds means we do not have to settle for mediocre wide receiver play just because we loaded up at running back.