How to Draft from Pick 1.07

Photo: Imagn Images

Draft season is here, and you've landed the 1.07 pick. Now comes the big question: Do you take a top wide receiver like Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, or Amon-Ra St. Brown?  Or do you go with one of the two running backs in Tier 2: Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson?

Draft positions in this series:
1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12

In this article, we'll explore both strategies, helping you make the most informed decision possible. To do that, we'll leverage two powerful tools that are essential for preparing and dominating on draft night.

First, we'll dive into the Draft Dominator, our supercharged tool for mock drafts and expert recommendations. This tool allows you to simulate different draft scenarios, refining your strategy based on league size, scoring, and starting lineup requirements. With these insights, you'll be ready to outmaneuver your competition when it matters most.

Next, we'll review the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) data, sourced from hundreds of recent drafts exclusively populated by Footballguys subscribers. This up-to-the-minute ADP information will help you map out the likely pool of players available at each draft stage—from the critical second-round decision point to the mid-round picks that can make or break your draft.

By combining the strategic foresight offered by the Draft Dominator with real-world ADP trends, you'll be equipped to execute a winning draft plan.

We are going to dive deep into two different roster approaches from the 1.07, exploring how your draft is impacted if you decide to go with a running back instead of a wide receiver at 1.07.

First, let's talk about who is likely to be available when you are on the clock at 1.07. Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill have virtually no chance of falling to 1.07. If one of these top three unexpectedly slides, taking him is a no-brainer. But assuming the top three are off the board as expected, here’s how the Draft Dominator ranks the top options for pick 1.07 and their likelihood of being available based on recent draft data from the Footballguys Bowl:

• Ja'Marr Chase: 17% chance of being available
• Breece Hall: 35% chance of being available
• Justin Jefferson: 38% chance of being available
• Bijan Robinson: 47% chance of being available
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 52% chance of being available

Of the above five options, only two will be available at 1.07, leaving you at the mercy of the drafters at 1.04, 1.05, and 1.06. Here’s who made it through to us at 1.07 in our Draft Dominator mock:

In addition to ranking the available options, the Draft Dominator also features a star system akin to Olympic medals. A gold star signals a slam-dunk pick, a silver star denotes an excellent option, and a bronze star marks a solid choice. This system simplifies decision-making by visually highlighting the strength of each pick, helping you stay focused and avoid overthinking in the heat of the draft.

I’ve included the Value-Based Drafting (VBD) column in the Draft Dominator screenshot above because it provides essential context when comparing across positions in your league. VBD ensures that you capitalize on the most valuable players at each draft stage, preventing you from reaching for a position when better options are available. 

So, what should we do with the 1.07? The VBD column shows a fairly sizable gap between the top two options, Jefferson and Robinson, and the next tier of players.

Let's explore these two separate and distinct paths of attack and see which road leads to a better overall roster. 

Path 1: Draft Justin Jefferson at 1.07

Drafting Justin Jefferson at 1.07 provides a reliable WR1 with elite production, ensuring a strong foundation in PPR formats where his high target volume and consistency make him a top-tier option. With Jefferson, you secure a cornerstone player capable of delivering week-winning performances throughout the season. Even Sam Darnold is unlikely to slow him down.

Here are our top options in the Draft Dominator for our second pick:

2.06 Drake London

Drake London, still exceptionally young for a third-year wide receiver, enters the 2024 season poised for a breakout with a massive quarterback upgrade in Kirk Cousins. With Cousins' accurate passing and London's proven talent, the stage is set for London to elevate his game and become a dominant force in the Falcons' offense.

3.07 Malik Nabers

Malik Nabers is a freaky talent. His elite athleticism and playmaking ability consistently set him apart on the field. His speed, agility, and precise route-running make him a game-changing wide receiver who can dominate at any level. His run-after-catch ability should make him a PPR monster. He remains our go-to option in the third round of most drafts. 

Rounds 4 Through 11

In this build, we will lean in hard on a WR-heavy approach targeting two more high-upside young wide receivers in Tank Dell and Tee Higgins in the fourth and fifth rounds. We will have to make the most of our running back picks, but if we get lucky with one or two of our backs, this sort of build can dominate.

Starting with Justin Jefferson at 1.07, this draft focuses on building a strong foundation at wide receiver with top talents like Drake London, Malik Nabers, and Tee Higgins. The roster is balanced with reliable running back options like James Conner and Zamir White, while David Njoku provides stability at tight end. Kirk Cousins, paired with Drake London, adds a potential high-upside quarterback option late, ensuring consistent production across the board.