How to Draft from Pick 1.05

Photo: Imagn Images

Draft season is here, and you've landed the 1.05 pick. Now comes the big question: Do you take a top wide receiver like Justin Jefferson or Amon-Ra St. Brown, or do you reach slightly for a running back like Bijan Robinson?

Draft positions in this series:
1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12

In this article, we'll explore both strategies, helping you make the most informed decision possible. To do that, we'll leverage two powerful tools that are essential for preparing and dominating on draft night.

First, we'll dive into the Draft Dominator, our supercharged tool for mock drafts and expert recommendations. This tool allows you to simulate different draft scenarios, refining your strategy based on league size, scoring, and starting lineup requirements. With these insights, you'll be ready to outmaneuver your competition when it matters most.

Next, we'll review the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) data, sourced from hundreds of recent drafts exclusively populated by Footballguys subscribers. This up-to-the-minute ADP information will help you map out the likely pool of players available at each draft stage—from the critical second-round decision point to the mid-round picks that can make or break your draft.

By combining the strategic foresight offered by the Draft Dominator with real-world ADP trends, you'll be equipped to execute a winning draft plan.

We are going go deep on two different roster approaches from the 1.05, exploring how your draft is impacted if you decide to go with a running back instead of a wide receiver at 1.05.

First, let's talk about who is likely to be available when you are on the clock at 1.05. Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill have virtually no shot of falling to 1.05. If one of the top three unexpectedly slides, taking him is a no-brainer. But what if the top three are off the board as expected? Here is how the Draft Dominator ranks the top options for pick 1.05:

In addition to ranking the available options, the Draft Dominator also features a star system akin to Olympic medals. A gold star signals a slam-dunk pick, a silver star denotes an excellent option, and a bronze star marks a solid choice. This system simplifies decision-making by visually highlighting the strength of each pick, helping you stay focused and avoid overthinking in the heat of the draft.

I’ve included the Value-Based Drafting (VBD) column in the Draft Dominator screenshot above because it provides essential context when comparing across positions in your league. VBD ensures that you're capitalizing on the most valuable players at each draft stage, preventing you from reaching for a position when better options are available. 

When looking at the options at 1.05, here is what stands out:

• There is a clear five-man tier of players in play at 1.05. It includes two running backs, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson. In this mock draft, Hall went 1.04 so we are left with just one running back option in the tier. There is a notable drop off in terms of projected PPG and VBD between these Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor. At wide receiver, there is a similar dynamic with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown each projecting to score almost 2.0 PPG more than A.J. Brown at the top of the next tier.
• It is hard to draft Ja'Marr Chase at 1.05 as of today given his contract uncertainty. You may not need to drop him out of this tier, but it is fair to at least move him towards the bottom of this five-man tier. Our realistic options here are Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Bijan Robinson.

So, what should we do? Let's explore two separate and distinct paths of attack and see which road leads to a better overall roster. 

Path 1: Draft Justin Jefferson

Based upon the data in 160 recent Footballguys Bowl drafts, there is a 75% chance Justin Jefferson will still be available when you are on the clock with the 1.05. He profiles as the top option with the 1.05 pick, narrowly beating out Amon-Ra St. Brown. If you are worried enough about Sam Darnold that you would prefer to select St. Brown instead, that is a totally reasonable stance. Plus, there is the 25% chance that Jefferson goes in the Top 4. St. Brown is a heck of a consolation prize after he put up 119 catches for 1,515 yards, and 10 touchdowns last season. Realistically, you cannot go wrong with either player. Both are very likely to top 100 catches and 1,500 yards as long as they stay healthy. Both are top talents in excellent offensive systems that will feed them consistently high target volume. 

In our first path, we happily select Justin Jefferson and move on to see what our options look like at 2.08.

Round 2

The Draft Dominator likes Travis Etienne Jr. He is certainly a solid option if he falls this far. However, I am going to roll the dice on the upside of De'Von Achane at the 2.08. Achane was insanely efficient on relatively low volume last season. He averaged 0.67 fantasy points per snap on the season. If he is on the field for over half the snaps in 2024, which feels likely, and can maintain anywhere near his per-snap and per-touch pace of last season, Achane can break fantasy football. 

Round 3

We are spoiled with excellent options at 3.05. Having a balanced build gives us the freedom to do whatever we want here. Let's go with our second LSU wide receiver, pairing Malik Nabers with Justin Jefferson to give ourselves an insanely talented 1-2 punch at the position. The key to wrapping your mind around Nabers as a top target in the third round is understanding that from a pure talent perspective, he is in the same elite tier as Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. He looks like a budding superstar who should see eight-plus targets every single week.

The 4-5 Turn

Kenneth Walker is the main running back target in Round 4. There seems to be a quiet confidence coming out of Seattle when it comes to the state of the offense and it is clear Walker will be featured heavily. "Ken's in a great spot," head coach Mike Macdonald said. "He just picked that offense up really quickly, everybody's excited, coaches, players. I think he's in a great spot mentally. He's been a fun guy who's just been a joy to be around. I'm excited for him, he's worked his tail off. He's got a great opportunity in front of him. I just can't wait for him to suit up for the first time. It'll be fun."

Keenan Allen is a high-floor veteran worth targeting at 5.05.

Rounds 6-11

Let's have some fun with a theme. It felt fortuitous to see Rome Odunze fall into our laps at 6.08. With two Bears wide receivers on the roster, adding Caleb Williams became a priority. We were able to complete our stack. This strategy brings with it massive upside. If Williams is an instant superstar, then we should also have at least one very high-level starting wide receiver between Allen and Odunze, and we did not invest significant draft capital on this stack. It was mostly coincidence, but this build also did end up with three of the top young LSU wide receiver prospects in Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers, and Brian Thomas.