How to Draft from Pick 1.04

Photo: Imagn Images

Draft season is here, and you've landed the 1.04 pick. Now comes the big question: Do you take a top wide receiver like Justin Jefferson, or do you reach slightly for a running back like Breece Hall?

Draft positions in this series:
1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12

In this article, we'll explore both strategies, helping you make the most informed decision possible. To do that, we'll leverage two powerful tools that are essential for preparing and dominating on draft night.

First, we'll dive into the Draft Dominator, our supercharged tool for mock drafts and expert recommendations. This tool allows you to simulate different draft scenarios, refining your strategy based on league size, scoring, and starting lineup requirements. With these insights, you'll be ready to outmaneuver your competition when it matters most.

Next, we'll review the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) data, sourced from hundreds of recent drafts exclusively populated by Footballguys subscribers. This up-to-the-minute ADP information will help you map out the likely pool of players available at each draft stage—from the critical second-round decision point to the mid-round picks that can make or break your draft.

By combining the strategic foresight offered by the Draft Dominator with real-world ADP trends, you'll be equipped to execute a winning draft plan.

We are going go deep on two different roster approaches from the 1.04, exploring how your draft is impacted if you decide to go with a running back instead of a wide receiver at 1.04.

First, let's talk about who is likely to be available when you are on the clock at 1.04. Christian McCaffrey has less than a 1% chance of making it to 1.04. CeeDee Lamb has a roughly 16% chance of being available and Tyreek Hill is slightly higher, at 17%. If one of the top three unexpectedly slides, taking him is a no-brainer. But what if the top three are off the board as expected? Here is how the Draft Dominator ranks the top options for pick 1.04:

In addition to ranking the available options, the Draft Dominator also features a star system akin to Olympic medals. A gold star signals a slam-dunk pick, a silver star denotes an excellent option, and a bronze star marks a solid choice. This system simplifies decision-making by visually highlighting the strength of each pick, helping you stay focused and avoid overthinking in the heat of the draft.

I've included the Value-Based Drafting (VBD) column in the Draft Dominator screenshot above because it provides essential context when comparing across positions in your league. VBD ensures that you're capitalizing on the most valuable players at each draft stage, preventing you from reaching for a position when better options are available. 

When looking at the options at 1.04, here is what stands out:

• There is a clear five-man tier of players in play at 1.04. It includes two running backs, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson. There is a notable drop off in terms of projected PPG and VBD between these two backs and Jonathan Taylor. At wide receiver, there is a similar dynamic with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown each projecting to score almost 2.0 PPG more than A.J. Brown at the top of the next tier.
• It is hard to draft Ja'Marr Chase at 1.04 as of today given his contract uncertainty. You may not need to drop him out of this tier, but it is fair to at least move him towards the bottom of this five-man tier.

So, what should we do? Let's explore two separate and distinct paths of attack and see which road leads to a better overall roster.

Path 1: Draft Justin Jefferson

Based on the data from 160 recent Footballguys Bowl drafts, there is a 93% chance Justin Jefferson will still be available when you are on the clock with the 1.04. He profiles as the top option with the 1.04 pick, narrowly beating out Amon-Ra St. Brown. If you are worried enough about Sam Darnold that you would prefer to select St. Brown instead, that is a totally reasonable stance. Realistically, you cannot go wrong with either player. Both are very likely to top 100 catches and 1,500 yards as long as they stay healthy. Both are top talents in excellent offensive systems that will feed them consistently high target volume. 

In our first path, we happily select Justin Jefferson and move on to see what our options look like at 2.09.

Round 2

The Draft Dominator likes Travis Etienne Jr. He is certainly a solid option if he falls to 2.09. However, I am going to roll the dice on the upside of De'Von Achane at the 1.09. Achane was insanely efficient on relatively low volume last season. He averaged 0.67 fantasy points per snap on the season. If he is on the field for over half the snaps in 2024, which feels likely, and can maintain anywhere near his per-snap and per-touch pace of last season, Achane can break fantasy football. 

Round 3

We are spoiled with excellent options at 3.04. Having a balanced build gives us the freedom to do whatever we want here. In the end, the allure of pairing Travis Etienne Jr. with De'Von Achane well below ADP is too good an opportunity to pass. If things had played out more along with ADP, Malik Nabers would have been the target.

The 4-5 Turn

With two running backs already in the fold, it makes sense to double up at wide receiver near the 4-5 turn. Luckily, this section of the draft is stacked with solid WR2 options. Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, and Terry McLaurin are each going off the board in this range. In this mock, we nab Flowers and McLaurin.

Rounds 6-11

We ended up landing one of the more exciting low-cost QB-WR stacks with Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin. We know Daniels will put up big rushing numbers if he can stay healthy. If he has success throwing it, we will have something for fantasy. It is hard to see Daniels succeeding as a passer without a huge chunk of the volume going to McLaurin. There are no other high-volume targets in this offense. In this mock, the tight end value did not fall in a way where the position ever felt like best player available. While the preference is to land one of the Top 10 tight ends in every draft, waiting and rolling the dice on Taysom Hill is a viable Plan B. Expect him to be heavily involved in the Saints offense early in the season.