How to Draft from Pick 1.03

Photo: Imagn Images

Draft season is here, and you've landed the 1.03 pick. Now comes the big question: Do you take a top wide receiver like Tyreek Hill, or do you reach slightly for a running back like Breece Hall?

Draft positions in this series:
1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12

In this article, we'll explore both strategies, helping you make the most informed decision possible. To do that, we'll leverage two powerful tools that are essential for preparing and dominating on draft night.

First, we'll dive into the Draft Dominator, our supercharged tool for mock drafts and expert recommendations. This tool allows you to simulate different draft scenarios, refining your strategy based on league size, scoring, and starting lineup requirements. With these insights, you'll be ready to outmaneuver your competition when it matters most.

Next, we'll review the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) data, sourced from hundreds of recent drafts exclusively populated by Footballguys subscribers. This up-to-the-minute ADP information will help you map out the likely pool of players available at each draft stage—from the critical second-round decision point to the mid-round picks that can make or break your draft.

By combining the strategic foresight offered by the Draft Dominator with real-world ADP trends, you'll be equipped to execute a winning draft plan.

We are going go deep on two different roster approaches from the 1.03, exploring how your draft is impacted if you decide to go with a running back instead of a wide receiver at 1.03.

Based upon a large sample of recent PPR drafts, we know that Christian McCaffrey will make it to the 1.03 less than 5% of the time. If McCaffrey unexpcectedly falls to you, feel free to adjust your approach. We also know that CeeDee Lamb is falling to the 1.03 less than half of the time, especially in drafts since he officially signed his extension. We are doing a PPR League mock draft with normal scoring and roster settings for this exercise. With McCaffrey and CeeDee Lamb off the board after two picks, here are the top recommendations in the Draft Dominator for 1.03:

In addition to ranking the available options, the Draft Dominator also features a star system akin to Olympic medals. A gold star signals a slam-dunk pick, a silver star denotes an excellent option, and a bronze star marks a solid choice. This system simplifies decision-making by visually highlighting the strength of each pick, helping you stay focused and avoid overthinking in the heat of the draft.

I've included the Value-Based Drafting (VBD) column in the Draft Dominator screenshot above because it provides essential context when comparing across positions in your league. VBD ensures that you're capitalizing on the most valuable players at each draft stage, preventing you from reaching for a position when better options are available. 

Path 1: Draft Tyreek Hill

There are few safer picks in the draft than investing a premium selection in Tyreek Hill. Over his past seven seasons, his per 17-game average production is 103 catches for 1,503 yards and 10 touchdowns. He only seems to be getting better. He has posted back-to-back seasons of 119 catches and more than 1,700 receiving yards since arriving in Miami. Drafting Hill virtually guarantees you will have a high-end WR1 with a realistic chance of having the overall WR1.

The 2-3 Turn

With the safe pick in Hill made, our focus shifts to the all-important pair of picks near the 2-3 turn at 2.10 and 3.03. The first big decision is whether to target running back or wide receiver at the 2.10. Here are our options in this mock draft exercise:

In this mock, the goal is to come away with both a wide receiver and a running back to allow maximum flexibility in future rounds. The question becomes whether we would rather have Derrick Henry here in the second and then come back with somebody like Malik Nabers in the third or whether it makes more sense to grab Drake London or Cooper Kupp and then target Josh Jacobs in the third round. Personally, I am in love with either Jacobs or Nabers in Round 3. However, it feels riskier to gamble that Jacobs will make it back around to 3.03. Thus, it probably makes sense to lock in one of our top running back targets, Derrick Henry. He is the gold star choice in Draft Dominator, and I agree with the logic.

Somewhat surprisingly, Cooper Kupp fell to the 3.03. He topped the list of Draft Dominator options. However, given the age of Hill and Henry, I am a bit leery of becoming too over-invested in older players. This is a personal preference, but I do believe drafting a team with a mix of different experience profiles is generall beneficial. Thus, I am adding my favorite upside rookie, Malik Nabers to this team with the 3.03 pick. 

With permission from the family of Giants legend Ray Flaherty, Malik Nabers will wear No. 1.

Flaherty's number was the first to be retired in Pro Football History. #Giants100 pic.twitter.com/9I5BKSkIVK

— New York Giants (@Giants) August 28, 2024

The 4-5 Turn

Let's look ahead to The 4-5 Turn. Here are the top options as ranked by the Draft Dominator sorted by VBD:

Cooper Kupp at 4.10 feels a bit too good to be true, so I will ignore that option and go with Ken Walker III. I see a solid tier drop after Walker and Alvin Kamara and if I want to get a strong RB2 option within the first five rounds, I likely have to do it here. I would not expect Kamar or Walker to make it back around to 5.03.

In Round 5, let's lean into an upside pick and target Kyle Pitts. 

Kyle Pitts is gonna go nuclear this year. pic.twitter.com/3pnUma44dr

— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) August 21, 2024

This team is built upon the rock-solid veteran WR-RB duo of Tyreek Hill and Derrick Henry. The safe weekly floor provided by the duo allows us to get aggressive in hunting upside the rest of the way. In completing the full 11 rounds of this mock draft, the strategy of going all in on talented young prospects to round out the starting lineup took shape. This balanced team with Tyreek Hill drafted at 1.03 is an example of how you can draft some older players early but still leave your draft with an insane amount of young talent.