How to Draft from Pick 1.02

Photo: Imagn Images

Draft season is here, and you've landed the 1.02 pick. CeeDee Lamb stands out as the top option likely to be available. Now comes the big question: Do you press your advantage at wide receiver and build a Zero-RB roster or do you double up at Running Back in the 2nd and 3rd rounds?

Draft positions in this series:
1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12

In this article, we'll explore both strategies, helping you make the most informed decision possible. To do that, we'll leverage two tools that are essential for preparing and dominating on draft night.

First, we'll dive into the Draft Dominator, our supercharged tool for mock drafts and expert recommendations. This tool allows you to simulate different draft scenarios, refining your strategy based on league size, scoring, and starting lineup requirements. With these insights, you'll be ready to outmaneuver your competition when it matters most.

Next, we'll review the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) data, sourced from hundreds of recent drafts exclusively populated by Footballguys subscribers. This up-to-the-minute ADP information will help you map out the likely pool of players available at each draft stage—from the critical 2-3 turn to the pivotal 4-5 swing.

By combining the strategic foresight offered by the Draft Dominator with real-world ADP trends, you'll be equipped to execute a winning draft plan.

We are going deep on two different roster approaches from the 1.02, both featuring the selection of CeeDee Lamb.

The preferred approach: Draft CeeDee Lamb at 1.02

Based upon a large sample of recent PPR drafts, we know that Christian McCaffrey is going 1.01 in over 85% of drafts. If McCaffrey unexpectedly falls to you, feel free to adjust your approach. Otherwise, your decision comes down to CeeDee Lamb versus Tyreek Hill (unless your league scoring drastically favors running backs). Understanding whether your league fits that description or not is why a tool like the Draft Dominator exists. Import your league, get pick recommendations, and draft with confidence knowing all of the math is taken care of for you. 

We are doing a PPR League mock draft with normal scoring and roster settings for this exercise. With McCaffrey off the board at 1.01, here are the top recommendations in the Draft Dominator:

In addition to ranking the available options, the Draft Dominator also features a star system akin to Olympic medals. A gold star signals a slam-dunk pick, a silver star denotes an excellent option, and a bronze star marks a solid choice. This system simplifies decision-making by visually highlighting the strength of each pick, helping you stay focused and avoid overthinking in the heat of the draft.

In this scenario, CeeDee Lamb stands out from the pack. Our team of projection experts anticipates that Lamb will outscore Tyreek Hill by more than a full point per game, with the added benefit of being at less risk for age-related decline.

I've included the Value-Based Drafting (VBD) column in the Draft Dominator screenshot above because it provides essential context when comparing across positions in your league. VBD ensures that you're capitalizing on the most valuable players at each draft stage, preventing you from reaching for a position when better options are available. In this case, the gap between the top wide receiver (Lamb at 191 VBD) and the top running back (Breece Hall at 149 VBD) underscores that choosing a running back other than Christian McCaffrey at this spot would be a reach.

We're going to draft CeeDee Lamb at 1.02. Next, we'll explore two separate paths to attempt to dominate our league.

Path 1: Zero-RB

The 2-3 Turn

We are entering our draft from the 1.02 spot locked in on CeeDee Lamb. Our first huge decision is what to do with picks 2.11 and 3.02. Let's look at two aspects of the Draft Dominator mock draft tool which can help us. First, we see the results of the mock draft and predictions on which players will be picked in between our picks at 2.11 and 3.02:

We just missed out on De'Von Achane who went 2.10 and the Draft Dominator believes if we do not take Chris Olave or Derrick Henry, neither will make it back to us at 3.02. We also see a list of the top players still available:

The Draft Dominator will default to recommending a balanced approach, which pushes running backs up our recommended list slightly. However, we are going to push forward with our Zero-RB strategy and have multiple strong wide receiver options at our disposal. We will go with the top wide receiver on the board, Cooper Kupp at 2.11.

With Chris Olave selected at 2.12, the top remaining receiver, according to both Draft Dominator and my personal rankings, is Malik Nabers. He is the pick here. Why the love for Nabers?

Malik Nabers preseason breakdown:

31.6% - Target share when on the field
43.7% - Air yardage share when on the field

13.3 - Average depth of target

(Data per @TruMediaSports)

Nabers has been used as the pre-snap motion man five times and targeted on two of those five routes.… pic.twitter.com/mA8nr57Q7Q

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 20, 2024

Nabers just moves differently than all but a handful of pass catchers in the NFL. It is hard to imagine his skill not translating into an impact role immediately. He will be a third-round mainstay in many of the different draft strategies explored in this series.

The 4-5 Turn

Let's look ahead to The 4-5 Turn. Here are the top options as ranked by the Draft Dominator sorted by VBD:sc

The plan for this mock draft was to aggressively build a strong advantage at the non-running back positions. When Alvin Kamara fell to us at 4.11, he presented a solid option, but the opportunity to add DJ Moore as our WR4 was too tempting to pass up. DJ Moore is our pick at 4.11. Fortunately, Kamara made it back to us at 5.02, and we happily locked him in as our RB1 in the fifth round. Drafting a running back at the 4-5 turn makes this more of a modified Zero-RB approach as opposed to an extreme Zero-RB, but it will give us a good idea of how our roster might shape up if we draft four straight wide receivers from the 1.02.

Next, I'm going to complete the following six rounds of this mock draft and showcase an example of an 11-man team. Drafting wide receiver-heavy early not only strengthens our lineup but also allows us to take advantage of mid-round values at quarterback and running back. Here are the full results of our 11-round mock draft when starting with four straight wide receiver picks: