How to Draft from Pick 1.11

Photo: Imagn Images

Draft season is here, and you've landed the 1.11 pick. You know your options at the 1-2 Turn will include at least some of the following players: A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Puka Nacua, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Marvin Harrison Jr. Which two players from this group should you target and in which order?

Draft positions in this series:
1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12

In this article, we'll explore two different strategies, helping you make the most informed decision possible. To do that, we'll leverage two powerful tools that are essential for preparing and dominating on draft night.

First, we'll dive into the Draft Dominator, our supercharged tool for mock drafts and expert recommendations. This tool allows you to simulate different draft scenarios, refining your strategy based on league size, scoring, and starting lineup requirements. With these insights, you'll be ready to outmaneuver your competition when it matters most.

Next, we'll review the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) data, sourced from hundreds of recent drafts exclusively populated by Footballguys subscribers. This up-to-the-minute ADP information will help you map out the likely pool of players available at each draft stage—from the critical second-round decision point to the mid-round picks that can make or break your draft.

By combining the strategic foresight offered by the Draft Dominator with real-world ADP trends, you'll be equipped to execute a winning draft plan.

We are going to dive deep into two different roster approaches from the 1.11, exploring how your draft is impacted if you decide to go with a running back instead of a wide receiver at 1.11.

First, let's talk about who is likely to be available when you are on the clock at 1.11. There is a general consensus when it comes to the Top 8 players: Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson. You should assume none of these eight players will be available when you are on the clock at 1.11. 

Who will be available when you are on the clock at 1.11? Here is what the data from 160 recent drafts says about your chances to draft the following players at 1.11:

• A.J. Brown: 24% chance of being available
• Garrett Wilson: 33% chance of being available
• Jonathan Taylor: 77% chance of being available
• Saquon Barkley: 77% chance of being available
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 89% chance of being available
• Puka Nacua: 99% chance of being available

Let's see who falls to us in the Draft Dominator mock draft:

Of the six top options listed above, we know four of them should be available at 1.11. This mock went according to ADP and both A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson went off of the board in the Top 10. 

In addition to ranking the available options, the Draft Dominator also features a star system akin to Olympic medals. A gold star signals a slam-dunk pick, a silver star denotes an excellent option, and a bronze star marks a solid choice. This system simplifies decision-making by visually highlighting the strength of each pick, helping you stay focused and avoid overthinking in the heat of the draft. 

I’ve included the Value-Based Drafting (VBD) column in the Draft Dominator screenshot above because it provides essential context when comparing across positions in your league. VBD ensures that you're capitalizing on the most valuable players at each draft stage, preventing you from reaching for a position when better options are available. 

The two distinct paths here are:

1. Selecting Jonathan Taylor, who earns the gold star from the Draft Dominator.
2. Drafting Puka Nacua and being happy with whichever of the top three remaining running backs (Taylor, Barkley, and Gibbs) makes it back to us at 2.02.

Let's explore these two separate and distinct paths of attack and see which road leads to a better overall roster. 

Path 1: Draft Jonathan Taylor at 1.11

If I am drafting 1.11, my fingers and toes are crossed that someone in the Top 10 picks takes Taylor and lets A.J. Brown or Garrett Wilson fall to me at 1.11. If that does not happen, we have to move on to Plan B: best available running back. As the Draft Dominator screenshot above shows, the three running backs in this tier are Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Each has nearly identical PPR projections and VBDs, according to the consensus of the Footballguys projection experts. It all comes down to your personal preference between the trio. 

Here are our top options in the Draft Dominator for our second pick:

2.02 Saquon Barkley

According to our ADP data, there is a 32% chance that Barkley will make it back around to us at 2.02. In this mock, he made it to us and will be our selection. However, the good news is that even if Barkley does not make it to 2.02, there could still be a strong running back option available. Jahmyr Gibbs (35%) is also a realistic possibility. Cumulatively, there is a roughly 67% chance that one of these top-tier backs will make it back to us at 2.02. If this tier of running backs all go off the board in the Top 13 picks, we can either pivot to wide receiver or drop down to the next tier at running back and select Derrick Henry or De'Von Achane.

The 3-4 Turn

At the 3-4 turn, the running back options are notably less appealing—unless a player like Josh Jacobs unexpectedly falls, which is unlikely. This scarcity of attractive RB choices is a key reason to consider doubling up on running backs at the 1-2 turn, ensuring you're not left scrambling for a solid RB2 later. The silver lining is that the wide receiver pool at this stage is deep and filled with quality options. With players like Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith, Brandon Aiyuk, DJ Moore, and DK Metcalf available, you can confidently build a strong receiving corps. In this mock, DK Metcalf was selected at 3.11, followed by DJ Moore at 4.02, securing two high-upside wideouts to balance the roster.

Rounding out the Roster

This draft strategy focuses on securing a strong, balanced roster early with Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley anchoring the backfield, followed by high-upside wide receivers DK Metcalf and DJ Moore at the 3-4 turn. The mid-round picks emphasize continued depth at wide receiver with Calvin Ridley and Rome Odunze, while also taking a shot on the high-potential quarterback Caleb Williams. You have to at least consider a fun Bears passing-game stack in one of your 2024 drafts. The later rounds round out the team with depth and potential breakout players like J.K. Dobbins and Jameson Williams, creating a roster with a mix of proven veterans and emerging talents.