How to Draft from Pick 1.10

Photo: Imagn Images

Draft season is here, and you've landed the 1.10 pick. You know your options at the 1-2 Turn will include A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Puka Nacua, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Marvin Harrison Jr., and others. Which two players from this group should you target and in which order?

Draft positions in this series:
1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12

In this article, we'll explore both strategies, helping you make the most informed decision possible. To do that, we'll leverage two powerful tools essential for preparing and dominating on draft night.

First, we'll dive into the Draft Dominator, our supercharged tool for mock drafts and expert recommendations. This tool allows you to simulate different draft scenarios, refining your strategy based on league size, scoring, and starting lineup requirements. With these insights, you'll be ready to outmaneuver your competition when it matters most.

Next, we'll review the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) data, sourced from hundreds of recent drafts exclusively populated by Footballguys subscribers. This up-to-the-minute ADP information will help you map out the likely pool of players available at each draft stage—from the critical second-round decision point to the mid-round picks that can make or break your draft.

By combining the strategic foresight offered by the Draft Dominator with real-world ADP trends, you'll be equipped to execute a winning draft plan.

We are going to dive deep into two different roster approaches from the 1.10, exploring how your draft is impacted if you decide to go with a running back instead of a wide receiver at 1.10.

First, let's talk about who will likely be available when you are on the clock at 1.10. There is a general consensus when it comes to the Top 8 players: Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson. You should assume none of these eight players will be available when you are on the clock at 1.10. 

Who will be available when you are on the clock at 1.10? Here is what the data from 160 recent drafts says about your chances of drafting the following players at 1.10:

• A.J. Brown: 53% chance of being available
• Garrett Wilson: 72% chance of being available
• Jonathan Taylor: 89% chance of being available
• Saquon Barkley: 87% chance of being available
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 97% chance of being available
• Puka Nacua: 100% chance of being available

Let's see who falls to us in the Draft Dominator mock draft:

Of the six top options listed above, we know five of them should be available at 1.10. This mock went according to ADP, and A.J. Brown is the one of the six who is unavailable. 

In addition to ranking the available options, the Draft Dominator also features a star system akin to Olympic medals. A gold star signals a slam-dunk pick, a silver star denotes an excellent option, and a bronze star marks a solid choice. This system simplifies decision-making by visually highlighting the strength of each pick, helping you stay focused and avoid overthinking in the heat of the draft. 

I’ve included the Value-Based Drafting (VBD) column in the Draft Dominator screenshot above because it provides essential context when comparing across positions in your league. VBD ensures that you capitalize on the most valuable players at each draft stage, preventing you from reaching for a position when better options are available. 

The two distinct paths here are:

1. Selecting Garrett Wilson, who earns the gold star from the Draft Dominator.
2. Drafting our favorite running back and trying to build up a big advantage at the position.

Let's explore these two separate and distinct paths of attack and see which road leads to a better overall roster. 

Path 1: Draft Garrett Wilson at 1.10

Drafting Garrett Wilson at 1.10 gives us an elite pass-catching talent to build around. The significant boost he’ll receive from playing with Aaron Rodgers, who has a history of producing multiple WR1 overall seasons from his top receiver, builds in plenty of upside. In Rodgers' last two years with Davante Adams, Adams' 17-game average pace was an astounding 135 catches, 1,659 yards, and 16 touchdowns, setting the stage for Wilson to potentially reach similar heights in 2024.

Here are our top options in the Draft Dominator for our second pick:

2.03 Saquon Barkley (or another top running back)

According to our ADP data, there is only a 19% chance that Barkley will make it back around to us at 2.03. He made it to us in this mock and will be our selection. However, the good news is that even if Barkley does not make it to 2.03, a strong running back option could still be available. Jahmyr Gibbs (21%) and Jonathan Taylor (8%) are both realistic possibilities. Cumulatively, there is a roughly 50% chance that one of these top-tier backs will make it back to us if we select Wilson in the first round. If this tier of running backs all go off the board in the Top 14 picks, we can either pivot to wide receiver or drop down to the next tier at running back and select Derrick Henry or De'Von Achane.

3.10 Malik Nabers

Nabers is a favorite target in the third round. According to recent draft data, there is a 77% chance he will be available at 3.10 and a 46% chance he is still there at 4.03. It may be worth gambling he makes it back around to you at 4.03 if you like someone else available in the third. This is also where knowledge of your leaguemates and their tendencies can play a big role. Are your opponents drafting from the 11 and 12 spots the type to target the hot rookies? Or are they more likely to go with veteran names they know?

Rounding out the Roster

This draft strategy emphasizes building a strong, versatile receiving corps with elite talents like Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, and Calvin Ridley, paired with rising stars like Malik Nabers and Jordan Addison. Saquon Barkley provides a stable RB1 foundation, while Anthony Richardson adds a high-upside dual-threat quarterback option. The roster is rounded out with potential breakout players like J.K. Dobbins and young playmakers like Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers, offering depth and significant upside across the board.