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Draft season is here, and you've landed the coveted 1.01 pick. Now comes the big question: Do you stick with the consensus and take Christian McCaffrey, or do you break the mold and select a wide receiver like CeeDee Lamb at 1.01?

Draft positions in this series:
1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12

In this article, we'll explore both strategies, helping you make the most informed decision possible. We'll also leverage two powerful tools to guide our preparation and ensure we're ready to dominate draft night.

First, we'll analyze the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) data drawn from hundreds of recent drafts exclusively populated by Footballguys subscribers. This up-to-the-minute ADP information is crucial in mapping out the likely pool of players available at each draft stage—from the critical 2-3 turn to the pivotal 4-5 swing.

Next, we'll turn to our supercharged Draft Dominator tool for mock drafts and expert recommendations, allowing us to refine our strategy and approach. With this preparation, you'll be equipped to execute a winning draft plan and outmaneuver your competition when it matters most. 

You may even be inspired to fire up some mock drafts of your own in the Draft Dominator to see recommendations specific to your league size, scoring, and starting lineup requirements. 

The Go-To Approach: Draft Christian McCaffrey 1.01

We are through 100s of real Footballguys Bowl drafts over the last few days, and Christian McCaffrey's ADP is 1.2. He has been the 1.01 in well over 80% of drafts. There is a strong consensus among the community that drafting McCaffrey is the right way to approach drafting from the top slot. It is not hard to understand why. Last season, McCaffrey averaged 24.7 fantasy points per game (PPR). Only one other running back averaged more than 18 fantasy PPG. If McCaffrey stays healthy, the weekly edge he gives you over your competition is gigantic.

Drafting McCaffrey also takes the pressure off of you to feel like you may need to reach for a running back later in the draft. You put yourself in a position to let the draft come to you. Let's dive into a Draft Dominator mock draft and put together a sample team led by McCaffrey.

What might the board look like at the top of the second round?

The combination of the run on running backs in the late second round and the need to start building our wide receiver depth make going WR-WR at the 2-3 Turn a very appealing prospect. Given how the board fell, the top recommendations in the Draft Dominator are all wide receivers. It makes sense, and there are players to be excited about here. Let's draft the top two recommendations. We know Cooper Kupp has serious upside, given that he is not so far removed from putting up WR1 overall numbers.

Let's also talk about Malik Nabers. I love that the Draft Dominator and the sharp minds powering it with the most up-to-date recommendations align with my biases here. Nabers is my top 3rd round target no matter what pick I have. His current ADP (37th overall) may make him look like a reach. However, this tier of wide receivers is tightly grouped together, and it makes sense to ignore ADP and get your guy. Here is a quick taste of why Nabers is my guy:

Malik Nabers preseason breakdown:

31.6% - Target share when on the field
43.7% - Air yardage share when on the field

13.3 - Average depth of target

(Data per @TruMediaSports)

Nabers has been used as the pre-snap motion man five times and targeted on two of those five routes.… pic.twitter.com/mA8nr57Q7Q

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 20, 2024

Let's lock in Kupp and Nabers and run the mock to see who makes it back around to us at the 4-5 Turn.

Here are the top recommendations per the Draft Dominator:

In this scenario, Cook is too strong a value to pass up here. He is my pick at 4.12 and gives this roster an outstanding one-two punch at running back. With a pair of top backs rostered, we have locked in a scoring advantage at one of the most important fantasy positions. We are now free to aggressively target the bevy of attractive wide receiver options in mid-rounds.

The Draft Dominator favors taking Amari Cooper at 5.01 in this mock, but I will go in a different direction to set up the potential for a fun QB-WR stack and take Terry McLaurin. The more I look at Washington, the more I like McLaurin. Jayden Daniels is going to take his shots. The rookie is a gunslinger. McLaurin could be this year's DJ Moore. He has an excellent combination of a safe floor (annual 1,000-yard receiver) and a high ceiling in a potentially explosive offense.

The plan from here is to attack rounds 6 through 11 with a clear strategy: lock in a Top 10 tight end and take a series of calculated shots on young wide receivers with upside. These mid-round wideouts often hold the key to unlocking a championship roster, and by targeting players with breakout potential, we increase our chances of hitting on this year’s fantasy stars.

After solidifying the receiving corps, we will take a big swing on one of the rookie quarterbacks with extreme fantasy upside. In the current fantasy landscape, waiting on QBs can pay off big, especially when you can grab solid options with high weekly ceilings in the later rounds (Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, etc.) as your Plan B. Here is a sample roster through 11 rounds capable of winning a fantasy championship if a couple of things break right. 

Sample Roster: CMC at the 1.01

Drafting McCaffrey at 1.01 allows us to go light on running backs with our other premium picks, focusing instead on building depth at other positions. We can then round out the bottom of our RB roster with high-upside handcuffs like his backup, Jordan Mason, and Cook's backup, Ray Davis, maximizing the potential of this McCaffrey-centric strategy. We do not need every single one of the young wide receivers we drafted to hit. We have made room for a miss or two by taking such a shotgun approach.