An easy way to gain an edge over your competition is to take advantage of the differences in the pre-draft automatic player rankings across the sites. There is a natural tendency for most drafters to be heavily influenced by the pre-draft rankings they see when they enter the NFL.com draft room. In today's article, we will compare the NFL.com ADP to the Footballguys Consensus to identify which players we can steal later in NFL.com drafts than we might be able to on a different platform.
Stealing these players is how you beat NFL.com Fantasy Football.
ADP Values on NFL.com
These 10 players are drafted significantly later on NFL.com than on other sites. Awareness of these ADP outliers allows you to get extreme draft value when others in your league stick too closely to the NFL.com automated rankings.
Players to Target
Where to start? The real answer on who to target is all of the above. There is wide receiver value across the board on NFL.com, and some of my favorite targets are featured on the above list. Here are the four that stand out the most based upon ADP.
WR Malik Nabers, NY Giants
I am not an expert at breaking down film or analyzing the intricacies of wide receiver play. However, I can spot a player who moves differently than all but a handful of the truly elite wide receivers. Nabers stands out like a sore thumb.
Malik Nabers had a really fun half of football. Here were his three best catches. pic.twitter.com/j4MfG0BLLC
— Justin Penik (@JustinPenik) August 17, 2024
WR Terry McLaurin, Commanders
McLaurin has posted four straight seasons with at least 77 catches and 1,000 receiving yards. His floor is incredibly high for a player whose CBS ADP is down at 79th overall. In addition to his safety, take into account his upside in 2024. The Commanders will have an entirely new offensive system under new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who has added exciting rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. He was high on my list before the trade of Jahan Dotson. He only moves higher with even less target competition. How does this offense operate if McLaurin doesn't see 10+ targets in most games?
WR Rashee Rice, Chiefs
With Marquise Brown nursing a sore shoulder, Rice and rookie Xavier Worthy are set to open the season as the starting wide receivers for the Chiefs. Rice was a consensus third-round pick before legal troubles sent his ADP tumbling. Footballguys legal expert Drew Davenport thinks the fantasy community has overreacted and believes Rice is a strong value in your drafts. In a recent X thread, Drew concludes, "Remember we are dealing in probabilities. Nothing is certain but you follow me for opinion and my opinion is that every day increases the chances that I'm correct and he plays all year."
WR Calvin Ridley, Titans
We saw Ridley as the top target in a pass-heavy offense back in 2020, and he produced elite numbers: 90 catches for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns. Ridley could be among the league leaders in targets as the Titans transition to a more aggressive offensive approach under new head coach Brian Callahan. His NFL.com ADP of 83 overall is an extreme bargain. Ridley makes a fantastic target as your WR3 or even WR4.
Players Going Too Early on NFL.com
If you want any of the 10 players listed below, you will likely have to draft them earlier on NFL.com than on most other sites.
Nothing is wrong with the quarterbacks on this list, but they are going earlier in NFL.com drafts than elsewhere. I will not try to talk anyone out of drafting an elite quarterback with upside like Patrick Mahomes II, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, or Dak Prescott. Just know that doing so on NFL.com will likely require more draft capital. Waiting at quarterback is an especially viable strategy in 2024, especially if you buy into the top rookies' upside.
Rachaad White is not a target for me at his NFL.com ADP. It is easy to look at White's 2023 Top 5 fantasy finish last year, see that there have not been any especially obvious changes, and assume he is due for a repeat. Maybe it is that simple. However, this has the feel of a trap. In 2021, Najee Harris and Antonio Gibson were second-year breakouts who finished as Top 10 fantasy backs. Harris topped 300 fantasy points and finished as RB3. Volume is king. Numbers accumulate even if you are banging out 3.9 yards per carry. Or 3.6 yards per carry, as White did last season. The talent gap between Rachaad White and rookie Bucky Irving may not be as wide as some believe. If the new offensive staff likes Irving as much as it seems they do, White is not getting 336 touches again.
Late-Round Sleeper Values
In addition to the potential value options going early in your draft, here are 10 players going late in NFL.com drafts who are more highly valued in the Footballguys Consensus.
Rookie WR Value
One of the noticeable trends when comparing ADP across different drafting platforms is that drafters on traditional league hosts like NFL.com tend to draft older, more established players more frequently. This impacts player ADP and creates a significant young player discount, particularly among rookie wide receivers.
There is immense value in targeting rookie wide receivers in your NFL.com drafts. The 2024 NFL Draft wide receiver class has been universally lauded as one of the best in recent memory. Seven wide receivers were selected in the first round, and another three were taken within the first five picks of the second round. A whopping 10 wide receivers went off the board within the first 37 draft picks. Remarkably, all but one of these players is being drafted later on NFL.com compared to consensus.
We have seen rookies finish as Top 7 wide receivers three times in the last four seasons (Justin Jefferson in 2020, Ja'Marr Chase in 2021, and Puka Nacua in 2023). The 2023 wide receiver class was considered well below average, but it still gave us a league-winner in Nacua. Plus, Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers, and Tank Dell ended up being excellent values and players we were able to trust in our starting lineups for long stretches of the season. We should expect a much more significant impact from the vaunted 2024 rookie wide receiver class.
Aside from Marvin Harrison Jr., I firmly believe every rookie wide receiver listed in the table above is going at least one full round later on NFL.com than he should be. 80% of them are going at least ten picks later on NFL.com than in the Footballguys Consensus. The cheat code to dominate your NFL.com draft is to know the rookie wide receivers are universally underrated in the pre-draft rankings. Do not forget these top prospects from a historically loaded class just because they are buried in the NFL.com pre-draft rankings.
