An easy way to gain an edge over your competition is to take advantage of the differences in the pre-draft automatic player rankings across the sites. There is a natural tendency for most drafters to be heavily influenced by the pre-draft rankings they see when they enter the ESPN draft room. In today's article, we will compare the ESPN ADP to the Footballguys Consensus to identify which players we could potentially steal later in ESPN drafts than we might be able to on a different platform.
Stealing these players is how you beat ESPN Fantasy Football.
ADP Values on ESPN
The 10 players are drafted significantly later on ESPN than on other sites. This allows you to get extreme draft value if others in your league stick too closely to the ESPN automated rankings.
Players to Target on ESPN
The trend here is obvious -- wide receivers are falling further in ESPN drafts than on other platforms. A few players on the above list stand out as tremendous targets if you are drafting on ESPN and want to take advantage of the ADP discount.
WR Drake London, Atlanta
London is one of the most popular breakout candidates in all of fantasy football. He is going in the early second round of Underdog drafts and the second round of drafts everywhere -- except ESPN. You have a great chance to land London in the third round if you draft on ESPN. Drafters are understandably enamored with London's upside after the Falcons made a massive upgrade at quarterback with the addition of Kirk Cousins. London does not turn 23 until late July, making him younger than many of the top rookie wide receivers. Cousins helped Justin Jefferson emerge as a fantasy superstar. New Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson comes from the Rams, where Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have taken terms dominating fantasy production. Consider London in the second round and make him your top target in the third round of your upcoming ESPN drafts.
WR Terry McLaurin, Washington
One of the top takeaways from training camp has been the quick emergence of Jayden Daniels. The Commanders offense should be fun this year. There has been a surprisingly large amount of negative vibes regarding Jahan Dotson, which leaves McLaurin as the clear-cut top option in the Washington passing attack.
Is Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin in for a big year? pic.twitter.com/UCzRHy8cRM
— Footballguys Fantasy Football (@Footballguys) August 19, 2024
RBs to Target
Knowing there will likely be great value at wide receiver throughout your ESPN draft is helpful. We highlighted some top players to target at the position above. Wide receivers are popping as top values largely because running backs are going off the board quicker in ESPN drafts than elsewhere. But we still need to "get in where we fit in" at running back and try to do so without reaching. Thus, it makes sense to highlight the few spots where we can find some modicum of value at the running back position on ESPN.
RB De'Von Achane, Miami
The list of players going way earlier on ESPN than on other platforms is littered with running backs. For some reason, De'Von Achane is the rare exception. He is a consensus second-round pick heading into 2024, but he shows up in the ESPN pre-draft listings down at 32nd overall. Achane may not be the safest pick. He is undersized and will share snaps with Raheem Mostert. However, his upside more than makes up for the modest risk in Round 3. Miami's running backs combined to score 472.8 fantasy points (PPR) last season. For context, Detroit was second with 411.3. Only three running back groups topped 345 total fantasy points. The Dolphins lapped the field. This pie is big enough that Achane can make good on his ESPN ADP even without dominating backfield touches. If he does step into a true lead role, he has overall RB1 upside within his realistic range of outcomes.
RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay
Jacobs is only going one pick later on ESPN than in the Consensus ADP. While that may not seem like much, the context here is key. Other running backs like Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, and James Cook are being drafted ahead of Jacobs on ESPN. He projects to be a safer and higher upside option than each. The Packers offense should be one of the best in the NFL. Rookie third-rounder MarShawn Lloyd has not been able to mount a serious challenge for early playing time, which means Jacobs should operate as a true workhorse back
Players Going Too Early on ESPN
If you want any of the 10 players listed below, you will likely have to draft them earlier on ESPN than on most other sites.
Beware old and injured RBs
- Alvin Kamara is 29, a scary number for an NFL running back. It may be worth the risk if you want to roll the dice on him in the 5th or 6th round. However, his ESPN ADP of 36th overall makes him an easy fade.
- Joe Mixon is 28 and entering his eighth NFL season. On paper, his situation looks solid in Houston. However, if you draft anywhere other than ESPN, he is a better target.
- Jonathon Brooks is an exciting rookie and made the list as a player to target on Yahoo! (where his ADP is 105) and stash on your bench until he can make a fantasy impact for your team down the stretch. An ADP of 67 on ESPN is too rich for a player who will not be on the field to start the season.
Late-Round Sleeper Values
In addition to the potential value options going early in your draft, here are 10 players going late in ESPN drafts who are more highly valued in the Footballguys Consensus.
- While Adonai Mitchell is a talented new addition, Josh Downs is still the favorite to be the WR2 in Indianapolis. He is falling WAY too far in ESPN drafts. Downs has a high-ankle sprain that could cause him to miss a game or two, but he will be back early in the season and should be highly productive in his second season.
- Joshua Palmer is the top outside wide receiver for the Chargers. He is a solid depth option anywhere near his current ESPN ADP.
- The pecking order for targets in Green Bay is very up in the air. The best option may be to target the cheapest of the top options: Dontayvion Wicks and Luke Musgrave. The two flashed major upside as rookies last season.
- Ray Davis will have a role right away in the Buffalo backfield. He can quickly emerge as the short-yardage back for the Bills. Plus, his upside is through the roof should anything happen to James Cook. You will have to scroll way down the ESPN pre-draft rankings to find him, so do not forget about him.
