High-Leverage Opportunities, Running Backs: Week 4

Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.

• Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
• Prev: Overall Ranking from Last Week
• HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
• GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
• TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets

The Good

Jets

After a clunky Week 1 on offense overall, the Jets have rebounded with Mike Williams ramping up in route share and Braelon Allen providing an early impact. The Jets have been No.11 or better weekly in HLO and are No.2 in running back targets on the season. Breece Hall has receded into more of a committee than most would have projected in August, but the HLO optimization still has RB1 overall within the range of outcomes for Hall. The bigger takeaway from the first three weeks is the league-changing upside of Braelon Allen if clarified starts present themselves later in the season.

Dolphins

Miami is the No.1 HLO offense and No.1 in running back targets, and they were still elite despite the dumpster fire output in Week 3. Skylar Thompson was battered, prompting Tim Boyle in relief this week, and Tyler Huntley could be the next pinch hitter under center. The running backs have largely been unaffected beyond touchdown opportunities. De'Von Achane is an auto-start option even once Raheem Mostert returns. One notable point from Week 3 was the even split between Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jaylen Wright in the RB2/3 roles behind Achane. Wright has been vice-gripped by fantasy teams, but Wilson is available in plenty of leagues.

Broncos

Bo Nix improved in Week 3 with select downfield throws and using his mobility. Denver also had their best HLO finish of the young season with a top-5 result. Sean Payton has a long-standing history of finishing well in elite, including the No.3 finish in 2023 on an underwhelming Denver offense. This is a 'monitor' backfield for later in the season. HLO creates the opportunity for upside should clarity present itself with enough talent. Javonte Williams has been disappointing, making Jaleel McLaughlin an intriguing option if Williams were to miss time. Tyler Badie was mainly in the garbage time portion of the Week 3 win. Do not overreact to Badie as a potential rising player based on the last game. Audric Estime is a wildcard once he returns from injury.

Buccaneers

Rachaad White was working through a groin injury in Week 3 but still ran 60% of the team routes. The major development is Bucky Irving rising by his superior play as a runner with dynamic movement and more upside than White. Tampa Bay has two strong HLO weekly finishes in the opening three games. If Irving rises (or White misses time), this has explosive potential for upside.