The Gut Check No.627: All-Waiver-Wire Sleeper Team

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The All-Waiver-Wire Team? I Dominated My Draft

Sure you did. We're all champions just for participating. 

Most of you dominators of the fantasy gridiron don't need to scour the waiver wire right now. Most of you don't need your car insurance to kick in at this very moment, either. 

Just for kicks, let's embrace the concept of forethought and planning. It might just heighten your chances of making good calls as a fantasy manager.

This week's Gut Check profiles my list of waiver-wire sleepers. Most of these free agents will be on your waiver wire for the first 3-5 weeks of the season. 

It's a squad of underrated and lesser-known options who may have your competition laughing now but with the right opportunities, these sleepers could be a reason your league is congratulating you later.

These are players with Average Draft Positions no higher than the 17th round in 12-team formats.

Here's the list of 21 players broken down by position and advice on when to take action. 

The Quarterbacks

Except for one passer on this list, the pervasive theme for these quarterbacks is a passing game loaded with veteran skill talent. If you're old enough to remember the one-year fantasy values of Matt Cassel, Scott Mitchell, or Nick Foles, you know surrounding talent can buoy quarterback performance.

The High-Ceiling Pick: Michael Penix Jr.

What You Should Know: I've shared in great detail why Penix is one of the most talented passers in this draft. Penix is a strong fit for Atlanta's passing attack because of his mobility, skill with off-platform placement, and bold vertical game. 

With Penix, Atlanta will finally have a quarterback with the superpowers of confidence and placement with vertical targets. This complements Drake London's and Kyle Pitts' superpowers: skill at winning the football in contested scenarios--something that has been dormant in their games. 

Expect big plays and big weeks from Penix if he's on the field this year. It may not translate to consistent top-12 fantasy production, but he should at least provide bye-week value. 

When to Act: You may not see Kirk Cousins favoring his lower leg, but if routes that require him to drive the ball lack accuracy and/or timing, preemptively add Penix if Cousins is your QB1 or if there's an injury to roster depth that frees up a spot. 

The Future Starter You Don't Know: Tyson Bagent

What You Should Know: A small-school star, Bagent's rookie season in relief of Justin Fields was more impressive than meets the eye. Bagent only had one good starting receiver last year. Caleb Williams will begin the year with two excellent veterans and a great rookie prospect. 

A promising pocket manager with good athletic ability, Bagent has the physical tools and pass placement to become a second-contract NFL starter. During the offseason, several teams called the Bears inquiring about a potential deal. 

Although the Bears' offensive line is still the weak link of this unit, Keenan Allen can act as a second coach on the field who can spot mismatches for his young quarterbacks. If Bagent is forced into the lineup, this receiving corps has the star power to generate quick answers that could lead to big plays. 

D'Andre Swift is another strong weapon in space. Look for all three receivers and Swift to earn schemed plays that use misdirection to generate mismatches in the open field. There are a lot of avenues for Bagent to deliver no worse than top-15 production if his supporting cast stays healthy. 

When to Act: A good preemptive indicator to consider Bagent is after any game where Williams is sacked more than four times. Another is the week that Williams faces a team with an excellent pass rush.

A third indicator is any week after Williams takes a massive hit and the Bears say he's fine. As we know, players lie about their injuries--to themselves and/or their staff--or the adrenaline is flowing enough that they don't feel the severity until the muscles cool. 

The Career Revival Candidate: Drew Lock

What You Should Know: The Giants lack the caliber of surrounding talent for its quarterbacks that the other candidates have. But there is another theme that at least three of the four passers share (Lock, Penix, and Thompson): an aggressive vertical game. Lock throws a beautiful deep ball and has a beautiful deep threat in Malik Nabers. 

Nabers is the key component of the Giants' passing game. Before Nabers, New York's receiving corps was filled with options with specific talents but no one with enough versatility to tie the room together. Nabers is that option who can do it all, and that allows the rest of the corps opportunities for more favorable matchups. 

If Daniel Jones falters, Lock has the skills and experience to deliver strong outings that could lead to big weeks. If Lock has learned to work at his craft behind the scenes since Denver dumped him, this could be the makings of a beautiful career rebound.  

When to Act: The preemptive indicators for adding Lock are similar to Bagent's...

• Coming off a game where Jones takes at least five sacks or a lot of hits. 
• Heading into a game against an opponent with a strong pass rush. 
• After an injury moment where Jones is eventually categorized as "okay," but it's suspect. 
• If Jones has an error-ridden game that costs the team a win. 

The Bears will ride out Williams' errors, the Giants will have less patience with Jones.

The Coach's Pet Project: Skylar Thompson

What You Need to Know: You long-time readers didn't think I was going to leave him off this list, did you? The Dolphins' speed at the skill positions gives any veteran quarterback a puncher's chance at fantasy success. 

When Thompson saw the field as a rookie, this was the Dolphins' first year running the scheme. Thompson lacked the confidence and knowledge of a veteran to play his best football despite a strong preseason. 

Even so, there were a lot of plays his veteran receivers left on the field during Thompson's starts, and the coaching staff called the most conservative games with the rookie in the lineup. 

Hindsight validates that Mike McDaniel saw Thompson as a true talent. He kept Thompson despite signing Mike White last year because he wanted to give Thompson a year to learn without the potential pressure of playing. Without question, Thompson beat White for the backup role in 2024. 

Thompson is more athletic than Tua Tagovailoa and has a better arm. He's a strong pocket manager with the confidence to fit the ball into tight windows in the vertical passing game. 

If there's a player who could deliver a complete 180-degree difference with the standing perception of his game since the last time we saw him, Thompson is that candidate. 

When to Act: You can probably get Thompson in a lot of leagues after the media confirms Tagovailoa will miss games because of his current perception in fantasy leagues. Still, it never hurts to be preemptive if you have a free roster spot. Follow the directions for Tyson Bagent's preemptive checklist in this case. 

Inheriting a Full Cupboard: Davis Mills

What You Should Know: Mills has previous experience as a starter and showed some promise with a worse offensive unit than what C.J. Stroud had. If Stroud gets hurt, Mills has the weaponry to become a weekly fantasy option, much like Tyson Bagent, but with a better offensive line. 

When to Act: Follow the directions for Tyson Bagent's preemptive checklist in this case. 

The Running Backs

The pervasive theme for these candidates is versatility in the passing game. Another commonality among most of these options is the size to perform as the lead back in a committee.