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A Lightning Rod Situation

The Chargers are one of the most discussed teams this NFL preseason, as NFL analysts, fans, and fantasy prognosticators are all speculating about what to expect in Jim Harbaugh's return to the NFL. We've written extensively about the situation already:

• What to Expect from the New 2024 Play-Callers
• Justin Herbert: Should You Limit Your Expectations? 
• Ladd McConkey: No. 1 Chargers' Receiver or Fantasy Bust?
• Reading the New Defense: Los Angeles Chargers
• Ladd McConkey: All In? The Gut Check No. 618
• Team Vibes: Los Angeles Chargers
• Sleepers: Los Angeles Chargers
• Busts: Los Angeles Chargers
• Eyes on the Guru IDP Information: Los Angeles Chargers

But we would be remiss not to articulate the opportunity that Gus Edwards has in 2024.

1. He's the Chargers lead back
2. The Harbaugh/Greg Roman system is an ideal fit
3. There's no credible competition to steal the job
4. The offensive line should be much better in 2024

But before we argue for drafting Edwards, let's acknowledge that there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical.

Edwards does not fit the traditional profile of a fantasy sleeper. 

• Undrafted out of Rutgers way back in 2018
• He's 29 years old
• His injury history is robust
• He's never had 200 carries in a season
• He's never caught more than 12 passes in a season
• The Chargers only gave him $3.4 million in guarantees

Gus Edwards College Stats (2013-2017)

After spending four seasons at the University of Miami in a backup role, he transferred as a graduate assistant to Rutgers, where he led the team in carries (164), rushing yards (713), and touchdowns (7). At 6-foot-1 and 234 pounds, Edwards was a pure power back, which dimmed his NFL prospects at a time when the league coveted multi-dimensional players at the position. He latched onto the Ravens and bounced on and off the practice squad until he got a call to the 53-man roster. He was a fixture from that point forward, although he wasn't given a star turn until last season, and that was an unexpected turn of events after J.K. Dobbins tore his Achilles. 

Gus Edwards NFL Stats (2018-2023)

You'll notice that he missed all of 2021 with a torn ACL and didn't return until Week 7 of the 2022 season. Most had given up on Edwards every breaking out of the Ravens committee, particularly with J.K. Dobbins looking like the new lead dogs. But Dobbins' injury forced the Ravens' hand, and Edwards rose to the occasion--finishing as the No. 14 fantasy running back. 

Now, let's get back to the reasons for enthusiasm...

1) He's the Chargers lead back

Everyone knew the Chargers needed to reload the running back room after letting Austin Ekeler depart in free agency. But in a bumper crop of available veteran tailbacks, Chargers GM Joe Hortiz wasted no time making Edwards a priority. Hortiz was the Ravens' Director of Player Personnel and knew Edwards intimately. But take a look at how Hortiz described the signing:

"He's the bell cow, the goal line [guy], the finisher," Hortiz said. "The right mentality for what we're looking to do here. I told you we wanted to be bigger, play a physical style of football on both sides of the ball and he helps us do that."

Bell cow.

Finisher.

Goal line guy.

Those sound like ways to describe a fantasy asset, don't they?

2) The Harbaugh/Greg Roman system is an ideal fit

Greg Roman was Edwards' offensive coordinator for most of his career in Baltimore. Edwards knows the system inside and out, and Roman knows what Edwards can (and can't) do. On top of that, both Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh are DEVOTED to running the ball.

Harbaugh in the NFL, as 49ers head coach:

• 2011 -- 451 pass attempts (31st), 498 rushes (3rd)
• 2012 -- 436 pass attempts (31st), 492 rushes (7th)
• 2013 -- 417 pass attempts (32nd), 505 rushes (3rd)
• 2014 -- 487 pass attempts (29th), 470 rushes (9th)

Michigan's run % on their 2023 national championship team: 40.4%

• They had the 117th-lowest pass rate of 133 qualifying teams

Greg Roman as the Bills OC:

• 2015 -- 465 pass attempts (31st), 509 rushes (2nd)
• 2016 -- 474 pass attempts (32nd), 492 rushes (2nd)

Greg Roman as the Ravens OC:

• 2019 -- 440 pass attempts (32nd), 596 rushes (1st)
• 2020 -- 406 pass attempts (32nd), 555 rushes (1st)
• 2021 -- 611 pass attempts (9th), 517 rushes (3rd)
• 2022 -- 488 pass attempts (28th), 526 rushes (7th)

3) There's no credible competition to steal the job

I know what you're thinking: how can there be no credible competition for Edwards' job when J.K. Dobbins is listed as the co-starter on the first unofficial team depth chart? It all comes down to injury history. Edwards has missed plenty of games, but it's nothing compared to what J.K. Dobbins has dealt with:

• 2021 -- Injured Reserve (Knee-ACL)
• 2022 -- Injured Reserve (Knee)
• 2023 -- Injured Reserve (Achilles)

Landing on IR for three straight seasons, with the last being a torn Achilles, is devastating. Yes, Dobbins worked hard and is back on the field practicing. But show me the NFL running back who's returned from a torn Achilles to sustained success. I'll wait...

Is it POSSIBLE Dobbins bucks the trend? Sure, but are you going to bet on it? 

Looking beyond Dobbins, the rest of the depth chart leaves much to be desired:

• Isaiah Spiller -- Incumbent with a whopping 55 carries in two seasons. The new regime hasn't said much to indicate they see Spiller as a key part of the offensive revamp.
• Jaret Patterson -- 85 carries in three seasons for a bad Commanders team desperate for playmakers.
• Elijah Dotson -- Another incumbent who carried the ball four times as a rookie in 2023.
• Kimani Vidal -- A rookie sixth-rounder, Vidal is a dynasty sleeper in some circles, but after two-plus weeks, he's listed dead last on the six-man depth chart.

4) The offensive line should be much better in 2024

The offensive line was in rough shape last year, as an early season-ending injury to center Corey Linsley led to a cascading collapse. Starting guards Zion Johnson (64th-ranked guard, per PFF), Jamaree Salyer (54th-ranked), and starting right tackle Trey Pipkins (57th-ranked) were near the bottom of the league standings. But we should expect marked improvement this year:

• Jim Harbaugh prioritizes offensive line play
• Greg Roman prioritizes offensive line play
• The Chargers drafted Joe Alt with the No. 5 pick in the NFL draft
• Left tackle Rashawn Slater is elite (No. 6-ranked tackle last season)
• Bradley Bozeman left Carolina to sign with the Chargers as Linsley's replacement

The new offensive line:

• LT -- Rashawn Slater (elite, incumbent)
• LG -- Zion Johnson (2023 starter, needs to improve)
• C -- Bradley Bozeman (new starter, experienced in Carolina)
• RG -- Trey Pipkins (moving Pipkins inside should be a major boost)
• RT -- Joe Alt (the consensus No. 1 tackle in the 2024 draft)

Edwards' Fantasy Value = The Price is Right

Let's be clear: Gus Edwards isn't going to be a top-10 fantasy running back. No one is saying that. He's a complete non-factor as a receiver, and it's exceedingly hard to vault into the elite at the position without being a multi-dimensional contributor. He's also--even as the No. 1--likely to share carries as Greg Roman has always split the workload. But where it gets exciting is that Edwards will be the offensive engine of a ground attack that will be unyielding. I keep hearing count opinions that say Justin Herbert will be allowed to throw the ball a lot. Yet, we have OVERWHELMING historical evidence that shows Harbaugh and Roman run the ball more than anyone else and stay committed to the run/pass ratio regardless of the game script or score. It's in their core DNA.

And right now, Edwards' price (ADP) is so low that you have plenty of margin for error built in. He's currently the 37th running back drafted, on average. For context, here are the comparable year-end numbers for the last five seasons:

It's hard to see a scenario where Edwards doesn't get 8 to 10 rushing touchdowns this season if he stays healthy. That alone sets him up to significantly exceed the average RB37 value proposition. If he can also get 200-plus carries, we're looking at someone who can push for top-24 numbers, even though he's a non-factor in the passing attack.

Gus Edwards 2024 Projections

Final Thoughts

Not every player needs to be a potential first-rounder in hiding. We spend a disproportionate amount of time fixating on the players atop the rankings and poring over our analytical exercises to find those other gems who might morph into elite players in the upcoming season. But fantasy football is a game of attrition. It's a game of small edges that collectively add up to weekly wins. Gus Edwards personifies that kind of edge this year. Given his age, injury history, and one-dimensional skill set, he's not your typical sleeper pick. But we saw last year that he could deliver top-15 fantasy value in that role, and now he joins a team with an even greater need for a pounding, straight-ahead runner. Unlike in Baltimore, Edwards isn't competing against his quarterback for rushing yards and touchdowns. He was signed to be their goal-line back, finisher, and bell cow. Even if J.K. Dobbins starts the season in a committee with Edwards, we should still expect Edwards to get the most valuable fantasy touches—goal-line plunges. As long as he stays healthy and scores 8+ touchdowns, he will be a valuable piece of a well-balanced, well-drafted fantasy roster.

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