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Good Hands: The Obvious and Not So Obvious
Good hands. Tyreek Hill has them. CeeDee Lamb has them. DeAndre Hopkins has great hands. If basing a wide receiver's hands solely on outcome, so does Terry McLaurin.
Good hands--the ability to catch the ball--is the most obvious skill required to play wide receiver. If you can't catch, it's unlikely you will begin playing the position in the first place.
Good hands in high school and college are a lot different than good hands in the NFL. When you consider the talent gap from high school to professional ball by the numbers, only 1.6 percent of NCAA players make the NFL, and only 0.8 percent of them last four years in the league.
This means that the way we define good hands for a receiver depends on the level of football. The top high school football players are in the 93.5 percentile of all football players. The top NFL prospects are in the 98.4 percentile. The NFL players who make it are in the 99th percentile.
As the level of football rises, the acceptable margin for error narrows significantly, especially in how we judge good hands. Theoretically, if we were to attribute these percentiles of 93.5, 98.4, and 99 to a receiver's skill as a pass catcher and had them run 1,000 routes, we'd see a huge difference in error rates when measuring good hands based on what appears to be a small difference in percentile of skill:
Good Hands? Depends on the Standard of the Competition
- Top high school WR (93.5 percentile): 65 drops per 1,000 targets.
- Top college WR/NFL prospect (98.4 percentile): 16 drops per 1,000 targets.
- Four-year NFL veteran (99 percentile): 9.4 drops per 1,000 targets.
When assessing NFL-caliber traits and skills like good hands, we must have a reasonable standard to project how well a player will perform at the highest level of football. That's what we're doing in Gut Check No.621.
Good Hands: Marrying Film and Data
In the world of football analysis, especially fantasy football, we lean on data. Most football data is heavy on results and light on process. The downside of results-heavy data is that it often doesn't do a good job of projecting techniques like good hands. Results-heavy data doesn't help us pinpoint whether these technique flaws are correctable, something a team can live with, or will become a significant developmental obstacle.
This is where film study has immense value. When structured and executed effectively, the act of film study is the acquisition of process-heavy data. Suddenly, the idea of good hands is not whether a receiver made the catch, but whether the techniques they use meet an NFL standard.
Good film study also helps us identify why the techniques fail to meet an NFL standard and what can be done about it. Good coaches, scouts, and trainers know football techniques and concepts.
They can tell you what good hands are when they see them. They can't tell you why it's valuable to define this in writing and how it fits within the scope of a scouting report. They aren't trained in developing methods that reduce unnecessary variation among scouts or encourage ways to continue building on the effectiveness of the process they use.
Scouting is still seen as subjective, and analytics as objective. This can be a fallacy, especially when you have a team of entry-level employees at a stats website charting catches and drops. The process used for measuring things like good hands, yards after contact, and passing accuracy is not a best-practice methodology based on the wide variation I have seen in how they define these concepts.
While the Rookie Scouting Portfolio's (RSP) evaluation process is far from perfect, it is built on best practices for evaluating performance. I have a background in operations management and quality management, and I earned a certification for developing and implementing best practices for performance evaluation and reporting. I used those practices to create the RSP's scouting process.
So when I study whether a receiver has good hands, I'm using the RSP's process for studying film to collect and generate data. The RSP is defining the data in a context that helps us understand not only if the player is getting results, but also gives us insights into whether those results will translate to a higher level of competition.
What Are Good Hands for Fantasy Football?
The RSP defines good hands with these points of criteria:
- The receiver uses the correct technique based on the trajectory of the target.
- The receiver executes the correct techniques with uniform and tight hands to attack the ball.
- The receiver attacks the ball at the earliest window of arrival when possible.
The RSP measures other techniques and concepts for good hands, but I'm going to separate those for other articles. These three techniques and concepts are interrelated and give us a solid understanding of who has good hands in the NFL and fantasy football.
Good Hands: Lapses and Serial Flaws
Are mistakes a production killer? They can be but they are more often a limiter of production potential.
Players with good hands can have lapses with technique. I define lapses as a small minority of targets where there is improper execution of the three techniques listed above (regardless of whether the player catches or drops the ball). Lapses can also be improper execution in isolated scenarios that happen repeatedly.
For example, CeeDee Lamb's RSP pre-NFL Draft scouting report noted a lapse in technique in this isolated scenario that happened repeatedly on tape:
"If there's any potential concern with Lamb as a pass catcher, it will occur when he frames his hands with a low-target [attack] technique for a target [arriving] at chest level or above. When I observed it [for] 11 games, Lamb didn't drop passes due to this choice of hand position. However, it is a more difficult position to use with high targets against physical coverage. Lamb doesn't use this position on every high target, but it shows up when he's working the fade or a chest-high target with a break across the field against tight coverage."
Lamb was the RSP's top-ranked receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft class.
Lapses are minor technique issues that can hurt performance. I define more significant flaws as serial issues. When a receiver has serial issues with technique, it means he's using bad habits on a higher number of targets. This ranges from a significant minority of opportunities that can potentially cap on-field production to almost every target that could keep a player on the bench.
Good Hands: Correlating It to Fantasy Production
To determine what good hands are for fantasy receivers, I looked at six seasons of rankings -- the top 75 options in 12-team PPR formats:
- WRs 1-3: Elite tier.
- WRs 1-12: WR1s -- top starters.
- WRs 13-24: WR2s -- weekly starters.
- WRs 25-36: WR3s -- flex-plays and/or low-end starters.
- WRs 37-48: WR4s -- flex and/or match-up plays.
- WRs 49-60: WR5s -- flex, match-up plays, and/or reserves.
- WRs 61-75: WR6s -- I rolled with 15 in this tier since it's usually a cast of reserves/rotating free agents.
For each player ranked in the top 75 for that year, I noted if his pre-NFL Draft RSP scouting report contained lapses and/or serial flaws with the three receiving techniques listed above in the section "What Are Good Hands for Fantasy Football."
As you would expect, there is a correlation between what the RSP defines as good hands and fantasy production.
Good Hands and Fantasy Production 2018-2023
| Tier | Good Hands | Lapses | Serial |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 3 | 94% | 6% | 0% |
| WR 1 (12) | 82% | 18% | 0% |
| WR 2 (24) | 58% | 42% | 8% |
| WR 3 (36) | 58% | 42% | 17% |
| WR 4 (48) | 50% | 50% | 14% |
| WR 5 (60) | 54% | 46% | 22% |
| WR 6 (75) | 42% | 51% | 19% |
The elite receivers have the lowest incidences of lapses on film and no serial issues. CeeDee Lamb was the only player among the 18 elite producers during a 6-year period with lapses in his profile.
The WR1 tier also had no receivers with serial flaws among the 72 tracked in 6 years, but there's a 12 percent rise in lapses between the elite and WR1 tiers.
As we get into WR2s and WR3s—startable receivers who aren't true primary options—they have identical percentages for Good Hands and Lapses. The WR3s have twice the number of serial lapses.
While the percentage changes aren't as neat for WR4s-WR6s, they are worse than the top four tiers, which is expected. I believe the reason the "good hands" data isn't as uniform as we see with the elite through WR3 tiers is that many of the players in the WR4-WR6 tiers have performances that fall into these two contexts:
- High performers who got injured.
- Young players who haven't earned a starting role but have performed well with limited volume.
Mix these future starters with good hands into a pool with more mediocre and/or limited producers and the WR4-WR6 tiers are lower than the first four tiers but not as uniform.
Good Hands Fantasy Insights
What does this all mean? How does this help us?
If you are an RSP subscriber, you can use these reports -- at least early in the player's career -- to forecast their likely ceiling of value if they earn early playing time.
Players do develop, so it's important to note when they do. As they develop, you can also update your notes on these players with the help of my rankings commentary at Footballguys, articles that I write during the season, or others' work if they define good hands in a similar way as I do.
Guidelines I'd recommend for applying good hands to fantasy rankings and draft prep:
- It's safest to forecast elite production only from receivers with no lapses or serial flaws.
- If a WR1 candidate has lapses with good hands, he's safer if he's earned WR1 production before.
- WR2s rarely have serial flaws. Unless he has been a WR2 before, cap him at WR3 value.
- WR3s are similar to WR2s, so if a candidate has flaws, project him close to the end of the tier.
- WRs with multiple serial flaws should probably be capped at a WR4 ceiling.
Good Hands in 2024: Notable Fantasy WRs
As mentioned at the top of the article, Terry McLaurin has good hands in terms of results. His process for catching the ball is not ideal, but it works. He is one of the exceptions that prove the rule.
McLaurin has also never ranked higher than 16th in a given season. Other factors likely have a stronger correlation to his capped production than his catching technique, but it's an influence worth noting.
Courtland Sutton has one season as a top-20 fantasy receiver. Injuries and poor surrounding talent have been factors, but so have Sutton's serial flaws with attacking the football. For a starting NFL receiver, Sutton does not have good hands.
Brandon Aiyuk earned top-13 production last year and has been a top-15 option in consecutive seasons. He entered the league with serial flaws as a pass catcher, but he has made notable improvement during his four years in the pros. He now has good hands.
So has DJ Moore. He has done a much better job winning targets at the boundary against tight coverage where his technique used to be a mess at Maryland. Still, I'd value him no more than high-end WR2 territory. Right now, the wisdom of the crowds has him as a mid-range WR2, and that's wise.
Gabe Davis remains a player you should cap at a WR3 ceiling -- if you're even going that high. The same is true with Quentin Johnston -- even if he has an improved camp, it's probably best to wait until you see him in regular-season action. He does not have good hands if judging him to the standard of NFL starters.
Jahan Dotson is in the same range as Davis. Although often regarded with more optimism as a technician, he has lapses and serial flaws. He's not an option worth reaching for.
Romeo Doubs may seem a little low for some as WR53, considering that he finished as WR36 last year. He has corrected some of his flaws with his attack of the ball but I'm not sure I'm ready to proclaim that he has eliminated his flaws. There are also still lapses. Considering the three other talents with starter potential in Green Bay, Doubs WR53 ADP looks fair.
Christian Watson's WR41 ADP also looks fair. He has more upside as a route runner than Doubs, and I classified his Good Hands Tactics as having lapses but no serial flaws. All four of the Packers receivers at least had lapses in the pre-draft scouting reports.
Doubs had the worst marks with Good Hands Tactics. Watson had more incidents of lapses than Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed. Considering that Reed performed as a high-end WR3 and WR1 for a long stretch of his rookie year, Reed is the safest of the quartet.
Van Jefferson has lapses and serial flaws in his scouting report and I haven't seen enough to change the assessment in L.A. or Atlanta. Considering how much chatter Steelers' beat reporters have about the search for a second starter, Jefferson may not be a bargain -- even as an option outside the top 100 receivers on draft boards. Josh Reynolds is a better relative bargain with good hands if you're seeking a proven reserve who can deliver starter weeks.
Tyler Lockett has lapses in his pre-draft profile that I think have been addressed, but you could also say that the Seahawks have also worked to his strengths. Because of his age and last year's offensive performance, no one considers Lockett a WR1 candidate. Still, he has done it once and has come within a spot of it two other times. Consider mid-to-high WR2 territory his ceiling if the Seahawks' offense experiences a major rebound.
Are you thinking Curtis Samuel is a sleeper who will finally reach his ceiling that friend of the program, Matt Harmon has wish-casted thanks to strong Reception Perception scores? The routes may be good, but the hands have just enough lapses that mid-range WR2 is the most aggressive dream you can dream for him.
Garrett Wilson may be sliding down my rankings soon. I had WR1 optimism for him thanks to his pairing with Aaron Rodgers. However, I haven't seen Wilson earn the volume of targets in scenarios that Rodgers will likely place him, and those will show us whether he has improved upon his lapses at Ohio State.
The same can be said for George Pickens with Russell Wilson in town. Pickens will earn a chance to show he has improved his attack of targets that a QB like Wilson will throw, but odds are likely that Pickens and Wilson are low-end WR1s this year, at best. They are safer bets as WR2s.
Rookies
Malik Nabers has good hands, and despite his surrounding talent, he's the safest bet in this receiver class.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has atmospheric highs as a pass catcher. He also has lapses on his college tape that could lead to more drops/missed targets than the buzz is projecting.
If DJ Moore and/or Keenan Allen get hurt, Rome Odunze has the Good Hands Tactics to deliver WR1 production if the volume comes his way.
If you don't know what I think of Ladd McConkey, check out why I think he is in a situation where he could become the most productive rookie fantasy receiver in 2024.
Brian Thomas Jr., Keon Coleman, and Ricky Pearsall have the Good Hands Tactics to deliver starter production if the volume is there and they show enough as route runners.
Jermaine Burton has been my priority dynasty pick at the position and could deliver this year if called upon enough.
In the coming weeks, I'll be doing more of these examinations of film details that matter for fantasy football with RSP film and data for the WR position as well as RB, QB, and TE.
Good luck!
