In Week 4 there are signals that some marquee fantasy players could be returning to the gridiron. While I tend to be optimistic when it comes to good players post-injury, I think there are some specific situations that are murky and for that reason, I am suggesting managers proceed with caution. Recently the NFL has been good and timely about letting us know when a player is going to sit out, but make sure you have a backup plan in situations that might not have such a grace period.
Understanding the NFL's Injury Report
(per Dr. Bramel)
"The injury report released by the NFL is [made up of] two reports. The first is the Practice Participation report, which lists which injured players practiced and their participation level. It also includes players who rested or missed practice for non-injury-related reasons. The second is the Game Status Report, which gives the probability a player will play, i.e., Questionable, Doubtful, Out. The Practice Participation Report is released every day of the week (Monday through Saturday). The Game Status Report is released with the Friday participation report (Wednesday for Thursday games, Saturday for Monday games). In this feature, I'll include the Game Status Listing and my expectations of their likelihood of playing."
If you are reading this article on Saturday, make sure to come back on Sunday morning as more updates trickle in within the next 24 hours.
Current Status on High-Impact Injured Players
Gameday Decision
- QB Jordan Love
- RB Alvin Kamara
- WR Chris Olave
- WR A.J. Brown
- RB Joe Mixon
- WR Deebo Samuel Sr.
- RB Ken Walker III
Trending Doubtful (Likely Inactive)
Trending Probable (Expected to Play)
Ruled Out
- WR Davante Adams (hamstring)
- TE Michael Mayer (personal reasons)
- WR Tank Dell (chest/ribs)
- WR DeVonta Smith (concussion)
- RB Jaylen Warren (knee)
- TE Trey McBride (concussion)
- TE David Njoku (ankle)
- RB Austin Ekeler (concussion)
- WR Adam Thielen (hamstring - placed on IR)
- WR Cooper Kupp (ankle)
Key: Player | Injury | Game Status Listing | Playing Expectation
Sunday 1:00 PM EST Games
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay | MCL Sprain (knee) | Questionable | Likely Active
After being limited in practice for two consecutive weeks, it would appear that Jordan Love is on track to return in Week 4. I said from the start that when it comes to MCL sprains QBs are typically able to return to game action sooner than skill position players.
I think Love is under center on Sunday.
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Hip/Ribs | Questionable | Likely Active
After Not practicing to start the week, Kamara was listed as limited in two consecutive practices on Thursday and Friday. The Saints have him listed officially as "Questionable."
The vagueness of the hip injury makes me feel like it is a minor issue. Typically if a player is dealing with something more serious or a soft tissue injury like a groin/hip flexor strain we are given some specifics. In this situation, I think the rib injury would be more limiting for Kamara's chances to play.
Kamara did miss 2 weeks in 2022 with a rib injury but in that situation, he was specifically dealing with a fracture. Assuming both rib and hip injuries are minor, I think Kamara could play in Week 4.
WR Chris Olave, New Orleans | Hamstring | Questionable | 50/50
Chris Olave was a very late addition to the injury report. On Friday, the Saints listed Olave "day-to-day" with a hamstring strain.
We have seen this trend before with A.J. Brown and others. It seems unlikely that Olave is able to play on Sunday. Hamstring strains typically result in multiple weeks missed with nearly 80% of players missing at least 1 week.
Update: Olave is traveling with the Saints to Atlanta and it sounds like there is a real chance he could play. Playing Olave does come with risk. WRs who play through hamstring or injuries see a 20% decline in fantasy points compared to their healthy average. For Olave this would mean his 12.2 PPR points per game would dip to 9.8
WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia | Hamstring | Questionable | 50/50
The development of A.J. Brown's recovery from his hamstring injury has been surprising. After not practicing all week, Brown returned to action Friday but was limited (LP). There are certainly reasons why Brown could/should sit in Week 4. The Eagles have a bye in Week 5, and an LP suggests that Brown is still not 100%.
However, in the NFL, your best ability is availability, and time is money. Whether a player should play and whether they can play are two very different questions.
Since 2017, 62% of players coming off hamstring injuries who log an LP in the final practice end up playing. Drilling down to WRs, that number dips slightly to 60%. I have mentioned this before: Brown is a WR who typically plays through injury. When he is able to practice, it translates to playing on Sundays.
I appear to be in the minority but I think there is a good possibility that Brown is active come game time. But as mentioned above, there are certainly reasons he could miss another week.
RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay | Hamstring | Questionable | Likely Active
Rookie RB Bucky Irving started the week limited in practice (LP) before not practicing at all on Thursday and then logging another LP on Friday. Irving told reporters that he will be ready to go Sunday, and although we cannot always take a player's word for their game-time status, it would seem there is not a whole lot of concern around Irving's injury. For now, I expect him to be available Sunday.
WR Diontae Johnson, Carolina | Groin | Questionable | Likely Active
Diontae Johnson gave Carolina fans and fantasy managers alike a scare Thursday when he did not practice due to a groin injury.
Afterward, Johnson told reporters that he did not practice "due to field conditions" but he would be ready come Sunday.
Friday Johnson did practice on a limited basis. It does not seem like his groin injury will result in time missed. Expect another healthy target share since, earlier this week, the Panthers placed Adam Theilen on Injured Reserve (IR).
RB Joe Mixon, Houston | Ankle | Questionable | 50/50
Similar to the aforementioned A.J. Brown, Joe Mixon was another player who did not practice all week but surprisingly returned to practice on Friday and logged an LP.
The timeline for high ankle sprains is three weeks, and Mixon has only missed one. Mixon is a player who typically misses less time than expected. In fact, while dealing with a high ankle sprain in 2021, he did not miss any time. Obviously, every injury is different, and Mixon is three years older since his first high ankle sprain.
If Mixon does end up starting, he still might be better off on your bench. On average, RBs returning from high ankle sprains see their fantasy points drop by 17%. It's possible Mixon shares the backfield with Cam Akers in his first game back.
TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville | Hamstring | Doubtiful | Likely Inactive
Evan Engram's hamstring injury is still giving him issues, and it would appear that he is unlikely to play in Week 4. Fewer than 5% of players listed as "Doubtful" end up playing that week.
WR Keenan Allen, Chicago | Heel | Questionable | Likely Active
Keenan Allen is trending in the right direction after missing two weeks with his heel injury. I expect Allen to play and not be limited by this injury.
Allen's slow start has likely made some managers weary of playing him, but in 12+ team leagues, he is a fine flex play.
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