Our friends at Field Vision have created a state-of-the-art app and website with a data-based approach to weekly NFL matchups. They use predictive analytics to spot mismatches, exploit odds, and find an edge to win. Their goal is to level the playing field for all football fans. In our new weekly feature, Field VIsion will look at our top players at each position each week, using their Matchup Index to provide valuable additional context.
Matchup-Proof?
Are some players matchup-proof? When you look at fantasy rankings week in and week out, it’s always the same players rising to the top, and with good reason. It sounds simple, but based on probabilities, the best players are generally the most likely to produce big numbers each week. That said, fantasy is about gaining an edge. Any edge. And if you can pinpoint who has the best and worst matchups on a week-to-week basis, it makes your life a lot easier. This is especially applicable in DFS, where you can take any player you want within the constraints of your salary cap. With that as a backdrop, you need to know which studs to take and which position it makes the most sense to spend up on. But don’t worry. Just like Footballguys, we here at Field Vision are here to make your football lives a little bit easier this weekend.
How?
The Matchup Index
Each week at Field Vision, we put together The Matchup Index: our proprietary tool that rates every player in the NFL’s matchup on a scale of -100 to 100. We’re partnering with Footballguys to bring the best of our Matchup Index to you weekly. In our Matchups of the Week article, we’ll look at Footballguys' top three players at each major position group and tell you who has the best and worst matchups for the week. Then, we’ll throw in our Field Vision bonus pick for each position: a player not ranked at the top who might be worth a start based on a favorable matchup that week.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 QBs
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
We like Lamar Jackson the most out of the three this week. Jackson has the best Matchup Index of +9, expected to produce ~2.5% over his passing and rushing expected totals. The Commanders defense is improving, but we expect a high-scoring affair in this one. We have Jackson projected for 286.6 total yards, with 59.2 on the ground. If the Commanders continue getting gashed on the ground, Jackson will get a share of that and produce big fantasy numbers in this one.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Jalen Hurts has a slightly worse Matchup Index of -2 going into his showdown with the Browns, but once again rushing yards are king and we have Hurts projected 7.8 percent over his Vegas O/U with 45.7 rushing yards in this game, slightly higher than the 42 that Footballguys currently projects. If Hurts can get a few tush-pushes into the end zone against the Cleveland front, it should be another big fantasy week for him.
Jayden Daniels, Washington
Finally, we like Jayden Daniels the least of the top 3. Against the Ravens defense, he has a Matchup Index of -4. It’s not an extremely bad number, but again, in QB fantasy play, rushing yards are king, and we see that as neutral for Daniels, with an expected total of 51.5 yards. This will be the toughest test yet of Daniels' young career as he goes on the road to Baltimore to face a defense that was able to corral Josh Allen just a few weeks ago. Sure, Joe Burrow went off last week, but we’ll assume Daniels' style of play is closer to Allen’s than Burrow’s.
Bonus QB - Dak Prescott, Dallas
If you’re playing DFS and don’t want to spend all the way up on quarterback, Prescott is a good choice this week with a Matchup Index of +33, expected to produce +7% yards over expectation. We have him projected for 313.4 total yards on the week, going up against a Lions secondary that has already given up big pass games to pocket quarterbacks in Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith this year. This game will likely be a shootout, and Prescott is primed to take advantage.
A Look at the Field Vision App
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 RBs
Derrick Henry, Baltimore
All three of these running backs have plus matchups this week in our Matchup Index, but Derrick Henry is a no-brainer for us with the best running back matchup in our entire model this week. He has a Matchup Index of +34 with a projection of 87.8 rushing yards, +8% over expectation. The Commanders are giving up 130 yards per game on the ground. Some of that will go to Lamar Jackson, but Henry will get his fair share with a Point of Attack Advantage on the left side and in the middle of the Commanders defense. He will have multiple opportunities to rip off one of his patented long runs if he can punch through the interior of a less-than-stout Washington run defense.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia
This week, Saquon Barkley has a Matchup Index of +9 against the Browns defense. Coming off a bye, we have Barkley projected for 105.3 yards from scrimmage. The Eagles will be getting their outside weapons back this week, but that should only be a good thing for Barkley, taking attention away from the running game and giving Philadelphia a fighting chance to score points. If Barkley can get in the endzone, he should give you the fantasy production you want.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
We see Alvin Kamara with the smallest matchup advantage of these three running backs, with a Matchup Index of +3. We have him projected with slightly fewer (62.8) rush yards and slightly more (36.2) receiving yards than Footballguys this week. Kamara is getting a whopping 22.2% target share in the Saints offense, which can only be good for fantasy, but Derek Carr is slated to miss the game this week. Sometimes, that’s not bad for a running back relying on dump-offs, but if the Saints offense struggles to move the ball against Tampa Bay, it could spell doom for Kamara.
Bonus RB - Josh Jacobs, Green Bay
If you look further down Footballguys rankings to No. 12, you’ll find Jacobs. He has a Matchup Index of +27 against the Cardinals defense, projecting for 84 yards from scrimmage by our model, +6% over expectation. We see personnel and point-of-attack advantages for the Green Bay offense against the Arizona defense, and Jacobs is still getting the majority of the work with 18 carries per game. He’s struggled to find the end zone, but if he rectifies that, he could be a great DFS play this week.
A Look at the Field Vision App
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 WRs
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas
Of the 3 top receivers, we’ll take CeeDee Lamb as our top pick. Not only is Lamb a week-in and week-out elite option, but we see him as the best wide receiver matchup in the league this week. He has a Matchup Index of +68, meaning we project him to have 93.6 receiving yards, 12.8% over his Vegas O/U. The Detroit at Dallas game has the highest projected point total of the week at 52, and we see a shootout on the horizon. The Cowboys are desperate to have Lamb more involved, and this should be the week they make it happen.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati
Ja'Marr Chase’s matchup is relatively neutral with a Matchup Index of -3, but he’s Ja'Marr Chase, so we understand the rankings. We're just not sure if he’d be worth spending up for in DFS. The Giants defense has been good in the intermediate and deep part of the field, limiting big plays. There’s always the possibility that Chase goes off (like Lamb did against them two weeks ago), but we still see Lamb as your Best Bet this weekend.
Stefon Diggs, Houston
Stefon Diggs is our biggest "buyer beware" here. Diggs has a Matchup Index of -10 against the Patriots defense. We know that Nico Collins just went on Injured Reserve, but the Patriots defense has held their own against some good passing attacks. (The Bengals in Week 1 come to mind.) Diggs may break out in this one, but even without Collins, Stroud still has other options. Field Vision has Diggs projected for 59.9 receiving yards, more than 13 full yards fewer than Footballguys consensus.
Bonus WR - Jayden Reed, Green Bay
Reed has a Matchup Index of +17, and he’s been a monster with Jordan Love in the lineup this season. Against a Cardinals defense that has been susceptible to the pass and the big play, Reed should be able to make a few explosive plays this week. Footballguys rightfully have him at No. 7 in their rankings, and we don’t think he’ll disappoint you as a DFS option this week.
A Look at the Field Vision App
That’s it for now. Be sure to check out the Field Vision App for our view on every player in every game via the Matchup Index, and check out our proprietary Threat and Havoc ratings that rank offensive (Threat) and defensive (Havoc) players relative to their position groups. Until next time, enjoy week 6.
