The Matchup Index
Each week at Field Vision, we put together The Matchup Index: our proprietary tool that rates every player in the NFL’s matchup on a scale of -100 to 100. We’re partnering with Footballguys to bring the best of our Matchup Index to you weekly. In our Matchups of the Week article, we’ll look at Footballguys' top three players at each major position group and tell you who has the best and worst matchups for the week. Then, we’ll throw in our Field Vision bonus pick for each position: a player not ranked at the top who might be worth a start based on a favorable matchup that week.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 QBs
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson enters Week 16 with a Matchup Index of +17 against the Steelers, projected for 280.7 total yards. Jackson’s total yards projection is 4.4 percent over his Vegas totals but lower than Footballguys projection of 296 total yards rushing and passing. The Steelers have given up only two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, with one coming last week to Jalen Hurts and one by Jameis Winston in Week 12. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks seventh in Adjusted EPA/play for the season. In their first meeting, Jackson threw for 207 yards and one touchdown while rushing for 46. It is a good matchup for Jackson relative to Vegas expectations, but not an ideal spot overall.
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen has a Matchup Index of 0 against New England, which is exactly neutral to Vegas' expectations. Field Vision projects him for 242.2 pass yards and 36.8 rush yards, slightly lower than Footballguys 246 and 50, respectively. Anthony Richardson is the only quarterback to find the end zone on the ground against the Patriots so far this year. It’s the Bills' first matchup with the Patriots this season as they’ll face them twice in the last three weeks. New England is 30th in Adjusted EPA/play this season, and the Bills, specifically Allen, have been on an unprecedented heater the last two weeks, with Allen accounting for 10 touchdowns in the two contests. It will be unlikely that the Patriots can slow Buffalo down this week, but it’s equally unlikely that they’ll be able to score with the Bills and keep the points tallying like they have the last two weeks. It’s a good opportunity for Allen, but watch the game script in this matchup.
QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts also enters Week 16 with a Matchup Index of 0 against the Washington Commanders, projected for 195.2 passing yards and 41.1 rushing yards, both within two percent of his Vegas expectations. Footballguys is in line with the Field Vision projection on rushing at 42 yards but are higher in passing yards at 217. In Hurts’ first matchup with Washington, he threw for 221 yards and rushed for another 39 yards, also scoring a touchdown on the ground, but he failed to record a passing touchdown. The Commanders have given up 39 or more rushing yards to quarterbacks four separate times this season. They rank 27th in Adjusted EPA/play in 2024. It should be a decent yardage game for Hurts, but he’ll need to find the end zone through the air for a huge fantasy performance, which is certainly possible as the Commanders have relinquished 20 passing touchdowns so far this season.
Bonus QB - Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love plays the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night with a Matchup Index of +15. Field Vision projects Love for 246.9 passing yards, 3.9 percent over Vegas expectation. Footballguys have Love as their QB11 and projects him for 241 yards and 1.9 touchdowns through the air. The Saints have given up multiple passing touchdowns five times this season and in three out of the last four games. New Orleans is 23rd in Adjusted EPA/play and ranks 23rd in Adjusted Dropback EPA/play, having allowed five 300+ yard passing games so far this season. Love should be able to do damage through the air in this contest and could be a good DFS option if you’re not looking to spend up at quarterback.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 RBs
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson has a Matchup Index of +23 against the Giants on Sunday, projected for 96.2 rush yards in the contest. The Falcons have newly minted Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, and conventional wisdom would tell you they’ll try to take pressure off the rookie QB and lean on the run game. But will it translate into a huge fantasy day for Robinson? Against the Giants' run defense, probably so. New York is 26th in Adjusted EPA/play. They are better against the run, ranking in the top half, but with Bijan’s dual-threat ability, it shouldn’t slow him down too much. Field Vision projects 120.1 yards from scrimmage, slightly higher than Footballguys 117. Robinson is second in Field Vision’s running back Threat Ratings on the season and we expect another big performance on the field and for fantasy this weekend.
RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Josh Jacobs enters Week 16 with a Matchup Index of +15 against the Saints defense. It's another solid matchup for a running back who has been ultra-productive all season. Field Vision projects Jacobs for 82.3 rushing yards and 27.5 receiving yards in this contest. New Orleans is 23rd in Adjusted Rush EPA/play and has relinquished 14 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. They have also allowed five separate running backs to rush for over 100 yards this season. Jacobs is seventh this year in Field Vision’s Threat Ratings with 82.3 mark. Expect a good day for him against the New Orleans defense as Green Bay continues to rely on the run.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs goes into a game against the Bears with a Matchup Index of -1. Gibbs is likely to get a bump with David Montgomery now out. But remember, the Index is relative to Vegas' expectations, and they know Gibbs will get the majority of the work now, too. Don’t fear, though; we still project Gibbs for 93 rushing yards and 29.3 receiving yards against Chicago. His 122.2 yards from scrimmage projection is the highest for running backs this week. Gibbs has consistently been in the top 10, but not the top three in Footballguys rankings. But now, with Montgomery out, he’s catapulted all the way to the RB1 spot. Chicago has given up five rushing touchdowns to running backs in the last two weeks, including one-a-piece from Aaron Jones and Cam Akers against the Vikings last week. Chicago is 26th in Adjusted Rush EPA/play for the season. Gibbs' managers have been wondering all year what it could look like if he got the entire workload. Thankfully, if you’re one of them, this should be the week you find out.
Bonus RB - Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard has a Matchup Index of +29 in a game against Arizona, projected for 75.1 rushing yards and 14.5 receiving yards by Field Vision. The 89.6 total yards from scrimmage is 6.5 percent higher than his Vegas expectation. Footballguys, who have Chuba ranked RB9, project him for 76 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards. The Cardinals defense is 23rd in Adjusted Rush EPA/play this season. Two weeks ago, they allowed Zach Charbonnet to go for 134 yards and two touchdowns while adding 59 receiving yards. They also allowed 47 yards receiving to backs for the Patriots last week. Hubbard should be able to find creases against the Arizona defense with advantages at the point of attack on the left and middle and will likely do some damage in the passing game as well.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 WRs
WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase has a Matchup Index of +14 against the Browns on Sunday. Field Vision projects him for 90.1 receiving yards, 1.8 percent over his Vegas line. Footballguys, who have Chase at WR1 this weekend, project him for 99 yards and 0.9 touchdowns against Cleveland. The Bengals team over in this game is 27 points, leaving a significant opportunity for their offensive weapons. The Browns have relinquished six 100-plus yard receiving games this season, all since Week 5. Chase, who’s chasing a triple crown, has actually only been over 100 yards four times this season. But when he booms, he goes big with three games over 177 yards in 2024. This kind of performance could win you a playoff week if you’re lucky enough to have Chase on the roster in week 16.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown plays Chicago on Sunday with a Matchup Index of +11, projected for 70.7 yards, just one percent over his Vegas total. Footballguys is slightly more bullish with a 79-yard projection for St. Brown, ranking him at WR3. Chicago ranks sixth against the pass in Adjusted Dropback EPA/play, but the game script could be a huge factor in this one. With all of the injuries on defense, Detroit has found itself in higher scoring affairs as of late, and this contest has an over/under of 48, with Field Vision projecting the Lions for 28.2 points. If that’s the case, St. Brown is likely to get his.
WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua has a Matchup Index of -18 against the Jets on Sunday. Field Vision projects him for 85 receiving yards, four percent below his Vegas total. Footballguys, who have Nacua as their WR2 on the week, project Nacua for seven receptions and 92 yards in the contest. The vaunted Jets defense is only 25th in Adjusted EPA/play this season and 26th against the pass, but they still have the personnel to roll coverage to Nacua if they choose to do so. It’s likely they will, as he’s become the clear-cut No. 1 option in Los Angeles. Despite their struggles, the Jets have only given up 10 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Puka is capable of a big day, but depending on the Jets’ coverage choices, he could be held below expectations.
Bonus WR - Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
Keenan Allen has a Matchup Index of +43 against the Lions this weekend, projected 7.9 percent above his Vegas line. It’s no secret that the Lions defense has been banged up on the front line for a while now. Still, those injuries are starting to extend into the secondary with Carlton Davis going out and now Brian Branch questionable with a calf injury. Detroit has now fallen to 7th in Adjusted Dropback EPA/play down from the top three just a few weeks ago. As Footballguys WR31 this week, Allen is definitely worth starting consideration if you have him, and could be a very valuable DFS play this weekend.
That’s it for now. Be sure to check out the Field Vision App for our view on every player in every game via the Matchup Index, and check out our proprietary Threat and Havoc ratings that rank offensive (Threat) and defensive (Havoc) players relative to their position groups. Until next time, enjoy Week 16.
