Each week at Field Vision, we put together The Matchup Index: our proprietary tool that rates every player in the NFL’s matchup on a scale of -100 to 100. We’re partnering with Footballguys to bring the best of our Matchup Index to you weekly. In our Matchups of the Week article, we’ll look at Footballguys' top three players at each major position group and tell you who has the best and worst matchups for the week. Then, we’ll throw in our Field Vision bonus pick for each position: a player not ranked at the top who might be worth a start based on a favorable matchup that week.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 QBs
QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels enters Week 15 with a Matchup Index of +15 against the Saints on Sunday, projected for 261.6 total yards, 3.8 percent over his Vegas expectation. The yardage expectations for Daniels are good, but New Orleans has only given up one rushing touchdown to a quarterback this season. Couple that with the fact that they’ve relinquished only four multiple-passing touchdown performances to quarterbacks, and Daniels will have to break some trends to have a huge fantasy day. New Orleans is 23rd in Adjusted Dropback EPA/play and 29th in Adjusted Rush EPA/play this season, which should leave the door open for a solid yardage output in both passing and rushing for Daniels.
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson has a Matchup Index of +14 against the Giants in Week 15. He is projected by Field Vision for 223.6 pass yards and 47.5 rush yards, both slightly below Footballguys projections but above his Vegas over-unders. The Giants are 24th in Adjusted EPA/play this season. They’ve also relinquished four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, giving Jackson an opportunity there. It could be a big day early for Jackson, but as 16-point favorites, you’ll need to watch for the game script in this matchup. If the Ravens jump out early, it could be a heavy dose of handoffs to Derrick Henry and Justice Hill in the second half.
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen faces the Lions in Week 15 with a Matchup Index of +5. This game has "shootout" written all over it, with an over-under of 54.5. If it follows that script, it could be a big day for Allen, who will face a Lions defense riddled with injuries. Allen had three rushing touchdowns last week and six in his last four games, but the Lions have only given up two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. Despite the injuries, the Lions still rank fourth in Adjusted EPA/play on the season, so it will be a test for Allen against the Aaron Glenn-led defense. That said, Footballguys have Allen ranked first this week, and it makes sense with the heater he has been on.
Bonus QB - QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold goes into Week 15 with a Matchup Index of +16. Darnold threw for five touchdown passes last week and is poised for another strong performance against the Bears defense. We project him for 261.2 pass yards, 4.3 percent above his Vegas expectation. Field Vision is right in line with Footballguys projections there. Footballguys also projects Darnold for two passing touchdowns and has him ranked seventh this week. Chicago has given up multiple passing touchdowns in each of the last three weeks, giving Darnold a good chance to add to his total of 28 passing scores this season.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 RBs
RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley heads into Week 15 with a Matchup Index of +19. Field Vision projects him for 116.2 total yards from scrimmage, 4.7 percent over his Vegas projection, but well below Footballguys projection of 134 yards rushing and receiving. Barkley faces the Pittsburgh defense, which is sixth in Adjusted EPA/play but slightly worse at 11th against the run. The Steelers have given up just a single 100-yard rusher this season: Tyrone Tracy Jr. in Week 8. However, they’ve given up 11 touchdowns to running backs in their last ten games. Footballguys has Barkley ranked 2nd on the week, and betting against him in any matchup is probably fool's gold as he goes for the all-time single-season rushing record.
RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon enters Week 15 with a Matchup Index of +11 against Miami. Footballguys RB1 for the week has quietly had a monster season. It has been less noticed in the shadows of Barkley and Derrick Henry, most likely because he left Week 2 early with an ankle injury and missed Weeks 3-5. However, on a per-game basis, Mixon has been close to being unstoppable. He has rushed for 100 yards in all but two games that he started and finished this season and has 12 touchdowns in just ten games this year. He was only held out of the end zone in Week 2 and Week 12. Miami is 17th in Adjusted Rush EPA/play this season. If form holds, expect Mixon to have a big day on the ground and find the end zone in this matchup.
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson has a Matchup Index of -4 on Sunday against the Raiders, projected by Field Vision for 80 yards on the ground and 30.3 receiving yards, both slightly lower than his Vegas expectations. Footballguys projects him for 84 on the ground and 27 receiving yards. Robinson is coming off consecutive games with over 90 rushing yards and a touchdown for the Falcons. The Raiders are not incredibly stout against the run, ranking 23rd in Adjusted Rush EPA/play, but they’ve given up only one touchdown on the ground to running backs in the last three games. However, Rachaad White, who does damage in both the rushing and receiving game like Robinson, did manage to score a rushing and receiving touchdown last week.
Bonus RB - RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs plays the Bills on Sunday with a Matchup Index of +26, projected for 94.4 yards per scrimmage or six percent over his Vegas over-under. The Bills defense has been sliding over the last few weeks, falling the 12th Adjusted EPA/play and 19th against the run. Gibbs has been nearly unstoppable for the Lions this season, limited only by his counterpart David Montgomery and his equal production. We could have taken Sonic (Gibbs) or Knuckles (Montgomery) as our bonus pick in this spot but went with Gibbs due to his explosive play ability. He’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season and has ten touchdowns on the ground to go with two through the air. If this game becomes the shootout it’s expected to be with a 54.5 over-under, Gibbs's explosive ability could be unleashed.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 WRs
WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb heads into Week 15 with a Matchup Index of +15 against Carolina on Sunday. Field Vision projects him for 66.2 receiving yards, 2.7 percent over Vegas expectations. The Panthers have played better in their last three games but still rank 31st in Adjusted EPA/play on defense. They had a four-game stretch from Weeks 7-10 without giving up a receiving touchdown to a wide receiver, but have snapped that with three straight games allowing a touchdown to a wideout. Lamb is pulling in an impressive 26.2 percent target share for the Cowboys this season and should have plenty of opportunities in a game that Vegas expects to be close.
WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Nico Collins has a Matchup Index of +12 against the Dolphins this weekend. Collins' elite production has largely been overlooked lately, due in large part to his early season stint on the IR and the Texan's struggles as of late, but he still leads all receivers in yards per game at 104 and has a Threat Rating of 90.5, also top among receivers. Miami is 21st in Adjusted Dropback EPA/play this season and gave up a pair of 100-yard efforts last week to Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson. Collins has dominated on scramble plays this year, ranking at the top of the league in EPA generated on Scramble routes, so if Stroud can break contain against the Miami defense, it could be a big day for Nico.
WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase heads into a game against the Titans with a Matchup Index of -15, projected by Field Vision for 84.2 receiving yards, 2.7 percent below his Vegas total. Footballguys, who rank Chase at WR1 this week, project him for 92 yards receiving. Although a struggle overall this season, the Tennessee defense has been solid, ranking 10th in Adjusted EPA/play this season. The Titans have given up just a single 100-yard receiving game this season to Keon Coleman in Week 7. They’ve also only relinquished ten receiving touchdowns to receivers in 13 games. Chase has been on a heater, and he could go off again in Week 15, especially chasing the Receiving Triple Crown, but the matchup isn’t great for him.
Bonus WR - WR Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Addison has a Matchup Index of +60 against Chicago on Sunday. Presuming the Chicago secondary allocates resources to slow down Justin Jefferson, they won’t have enough to keep Addison at bay, who’s quietly putting together a strong second season after the Vikings used a first-round pick on him last year. Addison has a nearly 18 percent target share and eight touchdowns this season. It took some time to get going, but he has over 50 yards in each of his last four games with five of his eight touchdowns. He also has 100+ in two out of the last three. We expect Addison to stay hot and outperform his Footballguys projection of 25th this weekend.
That’s it for now. Be sure to check out the Field Vision App for our view on every player in every game via the Matchup Index, and check out our proprietary Threat and Havoc ratings that rank offensive (Threat) and defensive (Havoc) players relative to their position groups. Until next time, enjoy Week 15.
