The Matchup Index
Each week at Field Vision, we put together The Matchup Index: our proprietary tool that rates every player in the NFL’s matchup on a scale of -100 to 100. We’re partnering with Footballguys to bring the best of our Matchup Index to you weekly. In our Matchups of the Week article, we’ll look at Footballguys' top three players at each major position group and tell you who has the best and worst matchups for the week. Then, we’ll throw in our Field Vision bonus pick for each position: a player not ranked at the top who might be worth a start based on a favorable matchup that week.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 QBs
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen heads into Week 14 with a Matchup Index of +4, projected by Field Vision for 268.6 total yards, about one percent over Vegas expectations. The Rams defense has only given up one 300-yard passer this season and has yet to give up a rushing touchdown to a quarterback, including matchups against Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts. However, the Rams have not been overly stout overall ranking 23 against the run and 25th against the pass in Adjusted EPA/play. The Bills have tried to control games with the run and let Josh Allen be Superman when he needs to. The bigger key for Allen in this game might be the Rams offense. If they can score with the Bills, Superman might have to come out a little more and create a big fantasy day for Allen.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow has a Matchup Index of -7 against the Cowboys on Monday night football. Despite the Rams' anemic record, Burrow has been putting up huge numbers all season long. Field Vision projects him to 269.8 passing yards, slightly fewer than Footballguys projection of 284. Dallas is 26th against the pass in Adjusted EPA/play so the opportunities will be there for Burrow. Another point in his favor is the Cowboys' propensity to relinquish rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. It’s not generally a huge part of Burrow’s game, but Dallas has given up a whopping seven rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks on the season. If he can get one on the ground and couple that with the expected prolific passing output, Footballguys QB2 ranking of Burrow could hold up this week.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts faces the Carolina Panthers on Sunday with a Matchup Index of -10, projected 2.8 percent under his Vegas passing total. With Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson on bye, Hurts takes the top spot in Footballguys rankings in week 14. Carolina has only given up two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year, but Hurts (more specifically, the Tush Push) is a different animal when it comes to quarterbacks scoring on the ground. Outside of a Week 7 Matchup against Washington and Mahomes going for 60 rush yards in Week 12, Carolina has generally limited quarterback rushing yards. We project Hurts for 39.3 yards on the ground, just slightly lower than Footballguys projection of 43 yards. It could be a good day for Hurts, but it all depends on how big the lead could grow for Philadelphia and if they just settle for handing it off most of the second half.
Bonus QB - Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Russell Wilson has a whopping Matchup Index of +59 against the Browns on Sunday, projected for 255.2 passing yards, 12.4 percent over his Vegas total. The Browns have been playing mostly shootouts since Jameis Winston entered as the starter. And their great defense from last year has fallen all the way to 22nd against the pass in 2024 Adjusted EPA/play. They have given up at least 248 passing yards to every quarterback in the last five games and have only held three quarterbacks this season under 200 yards. In a week with lots of key fantasy options (especially quarterbacks) on bye, Wilson could be a good pivot option in Week 14. Let’s hope you thought of this a few weeks back because it may be too late now.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 RBs
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley enters Week 14 with a Matchup Index of +20 against the Panthers, projected by Field Vision for a whopping 117.8 rushing yards, 4.7 percent over his Vegas expectation. He leads all players, including QBs, in Footballguys' fantasy points projection with an expected 23.09 points. Carolina is 31st in the league in Adjusted Rush EPA/play, leading only Dallas in that category. The Panthers have given up five individual 100-yard rushers this season, letting a back eclipse that mark in nearly half of their games. The only way they’ve been able to hold any backs under 100 has been largely committee situations for the other team. We know that won’t be the case for Philly, so expect Barkley to go for triple digits and have another huge fantasy day.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara has a Matchup Index of +5 against the Giants on Sunday, projected by Field Vision for 84.1 rushing yards and 36.4 receiving yards. In the last three contests, the Giants have given up 153 to Chuba Hubbard, 87 to Bucky Irving, and 112 to Rico Dowdle on the ground. New York is middle-of-the-pack in Adjusted Rush EPA/play, but they’ve been largely playing from behind and getting a lot of rushing attempts against them. With Taysom Hill no longer available, Kamara may also get some more goal-line opportunities, setting him up for a chance at a very strong fantasy day this week.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown goes into Week 14 with a Matchup Index of -11, projected by Field Vision for 72 rushing yards, six less than Footballguys projection of 78. Despite having a porous run defense on a per-play basis, Dallas hasn’t given up many huge days on the ground. They’ve only allowed one 100-yard rushing since after Week 3, which was Joe Mixon going 109 in Week 11. Kamara and Derrick Henry both gashed them for big games early in the season as well. Dallas has, however, allowed 14 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. Couple that with the seven to quarterbacks we referenced earlier, and that’s a lot of people running their way into the endzone against this defense. From a yardage perspective, it may not be the most favorable matchup for Brown, but he definitely has more than a fighter's chance to score a touchdown, if not multiple,e justifying his Footballguys RB3 ranking.
Bonus RB - Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams plays the Bills on Sunday with a Matchup Index of +39, projected for 77.1 rushing yards, 9.4 percent over his Vegas total. Footballguys, who have Williams ranked ninth for the week, project him for 83 yards on the ground and 12 receiving yards. The Bills have allowed a running back to find the end zone in exactly half of their games this year and have given up another six receiving touchdowns to running backs. Williams has 12 touchdowns of his own on the season, so he’s positioned to take advantage of his ability to hit paydirt and do the same against Buffalo.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 WRs
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua enters Week 14 with a Matchup Index of +15 against the Bills, projected for 79.2 receiving yards, just slightly above his season average of 78. Footballguys, who have Nacua ranked third for the week, projecting him for 82 yards in this game. The Bills have only given up two 100-yard receivers this season and those were both in the same game against the Jets in Week 6. Buffalo’s defense has performed well, but they are just 12th in Adjusted Dropback EPA/play this season, just barely above the middle of the pack. Nacua averages nearly 40 yards after the catch per game for the Rams, who could be playing from behind and need to throw the ball.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown has a Matchup Index of +14 against the Panthers in Week 14. Brown is having another formidable season, but these days, it seems to just come down to how much the Eagles need him in a given game. When Barkley is ripping off 50-yard runs and Philly is in control of the game, they don’t tend to throw it down the field as much and try to just limit turnovers. It makes sense, but Carolina is 28th against the pass in Adjusted EPA/play, so maybe he rips off some big plays early before the game is in hand. Also, Carolina has been playing more inspired as of late, taking the Chiefs and the Bucs to the wire the last two weeks, so this game could be closer than we think. If this game stays tight, expect big production from Brown.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase goes into the week with a Matchup Index of -12, projected 1.4 percent under his Vegas expectation. Chase is the ultimate boom-or-bust fantasy player, but it’s been a lot more boom than bust as of late, with touchdowns in five of his last six games and six touchdowns in the last three games. Chase is pulling in a 25.5 percent target share on the season. Chase can tend to struggle against man coverage, which Dallas likes to employ. It will be interesting to see how they split their corners up between Higgins and Chase and who draws which assignment. The Dallas defense has looked better since Micah Parsons returned, but with Chase on the field, there’s always a chance for a huge day.
Bonus WR - DeAndre Hopkins, Kansas City
DeAndre Hopkins has a Matchup Index of +14 against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs offense has quietly looked better since acquiring Hopkins in a trade from the Titans, even though it hasn’t translated into any huge fantasy days for him. Hopkins and Mahomes are building chemistry each week. Mahomes is looking for someone to step up as his No. 1 target, and this could be the week Hopkins steps into that role.
That’s it for now. Be sure to check out the Field Vision App for our view on every player in every game via the Matchup Index, and check out our proprietary Threat and Havoc ratings that rank offensive (Threat) and defensive (Havoc) players relative to their position groups. Until next time, enjoy Week 14.