The Matchup Index
Each week at Field Vision, we put together The Matchup Index: our proprietary tool that rates every player in the NFL's matchup on a scale of -100 to 100. We're partnering with Footballguys to bring the best of our Matchup Index to you weekly. In our Matchups of the Week article, we'll look at Footballguys' top three players at each major position group and tell you who has the best and worst matchups for the week. Then, we'll throw in our Field Vision bonus pick for each position: a player not ranked at the top who might be worth a start based on a favorable matchup that week.
Note: All Matchups this week are for games on Sunday or Monday.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 QBs
Jayden Daniels, Washington
Jayden Daniels goes into Week 13 with a Matchup Index of +11 against the Tennessee Titans. We project him for 221.5 passing yards and 48.2 rushing yards, both slightly higher than Footballguys. Daniels has 17 total touchdowns on the season, five of them coming on the ground. Tennessee's defense has been better than you think this year, with an adjusted EPA/play that is eighth in the league, but they have given up four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. They've also given up over 40 QB rushing yards three separate times this season. Washington needs to get back on track in this game after consecutive divisional losses, and Daniels will be the key to doing that.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Jalen Hurts faces the Baltimore defense with a Matchup Index of +3 in Eeek 13. We project him for 219.7 pass yards and 39.5 rush yards against the Ravens defense. Baltimore is third in adjusted rush EPA/play this season but only 18th against the pass. Something will have to give with an Eagles team that would prefer to do its damage on the ground. It could be a big day for Hurts through the air as the Ravens defense has given up over 260 passing yards in seven of their 12 games this season. However, they have only relinquished two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in 2024. This game has an over/under of 51.5, so a shootout could be in the cards.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
In the same matchup, Lamar Jackson has a Matchup Index of -8, projected 5.1 percent under his Vegas passing total but 12.9 percent over his rushing total. Philadelphia's defense is third in Adjusted EPA/play this season and has been stout against the run and pass recently. The Eagles defense has not given up more than two passing touchdowns in any game this season. Jackson is basically matchup-proof, but this could be one of his toughest tests of the year against a defense that is ranked highly and trending in the right direction as of late.
Bonus QB - C.J. Stroud, Houston
C.J. Stroud has a Matchup Index of +35 against the Jaguars defense on Sunday. After a less-than-stellar performance against the Titans last week, the Texans will try to get right against another reeling division foe. We have Stroud projected for 259.4 passing yards and 17 yards on the ground. The Jaguars have given up at least three passing touchdowns in a game four times this season and over 200 yards through the air in all but one game. They rank dead last in adjusted passing EPA/play on defense. Stroud and the Texans have a great opportunity to get back on track in this one.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 RBs
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta
Bijan Robinson has a Matchup Index of +31 against the Chargers on Sunday, projected for 73.4 rushing yards and 34.6 receiving yards, both over his Vegas expectations. From a yardage perspective, Robinson is set up for a good game, but the Chargers have only given up two rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. They are tenth in adjust rush EPA/play through 12 weeks. Robinson has only gone over 100 yards rushing once this season but is averaging 4.7 yards per carry on the season. We like Bijan in this game, but he'll need to find the end zone to pay off for a big fantasy day.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
Alvin Kamara enters Week 13 with a Matchup Index of +10. The Rams defense is 26th in Adjusted Rush EPA/play. They gave up three rushing touchdowns to running backs last week against the Eagles but had not relinquished a TD on the ground to a running back since Week 5 until that Sunday Night game. Kamara has two breakout games this season in Week 2 against Dallas and Week 9 against Carolina, but has been largely pedestrian on the ground otherwise. That said, his receiving baseline always gives a good fantasy floor. He has multiple receptions in every game this season.
Joe Mixon, Houston
Joe Mixon has a Matchup Index of -8 against the Jaguars on Sunday. Mixon had his first real dud of the season last week against Tennessee, rushing 14 times for only 22 yards. He partially salvaged his day by catching five passes but did not find the end zone for the first time all year when he started and finished the game. Jacksonville is 21st in adjusted Rush EPA/play on the season. They have given up 15 total touchdowns to running backs this season. This is a prime spot for Mixon to get back on track and continue his monster season.
Bonus RB - Tony Pollard, Tennessee
Tony Pollard faces the Commanders this weekend with a Matchup Index of +20. Pollard is projected for 73.6 rush yards, 6.9 percent over his Vegas total. Washington has given up a rushing touchdown to a running back in all but four games this season. The Commanders are 30th against the run in adjusted rush EPA/play this season. Pollard had his second 100-yard game of the season last week against Houston, and we expect him to continue to roll in Week 13.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 WRs
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati
Ja'Marr Chase heads into Week 13 with a Matchup Index of +45. We project him for 78.4 receiving yards, 8.1 percent over expectation. The yardage projection for Chase is strong, but the Steelers have only given up four touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Pittsburgh has the fifth-best defense in the league by adjusted EPA/play and is 10th against the pass. Chase leads the NFL with 1056 receiving yards but has only gone over 100 yards three times this season. If the Cincinnati defense allows Russell Wilson to cook and the Bengals have to keep up on offense, it could be a big game for Chase.
Nico Collins, Houston
Nico Collins has a Matchup Index of -16 against the Jaguars on Sunday, projected for 82.9 receiving yards. Collins has been a monster when on the field this season. He's been getting back into form since missing five games with a hamstring injury, and last week had five receptions for 92 yards and a touchdown. As noted above, Jacksonville's defense is dead last in adjusted EPA/play against the pass. The Jaguars have given up six 100-yard receiving games this season, so Collins has a chance to get fully back to the form he showed in the first four weeks of the season.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia
A.J. Brown has a Matchup Index of -40 this week against the Baltimore Ravens. We project Brown for 87.3 yards which is still very good, but 7.6 percent lower than his Vegas expectation. Baltimore has given up zero touchdown passes to receivers in three of the last four weeks, with the lone exception being Ja'Marr Chase's blow-up for 264 and three touchdowns in Week 10. If Baltimore can corral the Eagles rushing game and force them to pass that could be the ticket for Brown to have a big day, but that hasn't happened often as of late.
Bonus WR - Garrett Wilson, NY Jets
Garrett Wilson, Footballguys 13th ranked receiver in Week 13, has a Matchup Index of +16 against the Seahawks on Sunday. Wilson is still pulling in a 29.3 percent target share on the season. The Seahawks have given up four 100-yard receiving games this season and are in the middle of the pack against the pass this year, ranking 16th in adjusted dropback EPA/play. Wilson had just four receptions for 18 yards last week against Indianapolis, so he'll be looking for a bounce-back game this week.
That's it for now. Be sure to check out the Field Vision App for our view on every player in every game via the Matchup Index, and check out our proprietary Threat and Havoc ratings that rank offensive (Threat) and defensive (Havoc) players relative to their position groups. Until next time, enjoy Week 13.
