The Matchup Index
Each week at Field Vision, we put together The Matchup Index: our proprietary tool that rates every player in the NFL’s matchup on a scale of -100 to 100. We’re partnering with Footballguys to bring the best of our Matchup Index to you weekly. In our Matchups of the Week article, we’ll look at Footballguys' top three players at each major position group and tell you who has the best and worst matchups for the week. Then, we’ll throw in our Field Vision bonus pick for each position: a player not ranked at the top who might be worth a start based on a favorable matchup that week.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 QBs
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Jalen Hurts enters Week 12 with a Matchup Index of +20, projected 5 percent over his expectation for total yards. The Rams defense has yet to give up a rushing touchdown to a quarterback this season, but here comes the tush push, so there’s a good chance that changes. We project Hurts for 229.6 pass yards and 40.3 rushing yards, both very much in line with Footballguys projections. The only true rushing threat the Rams have faced at the quarterback position this season is Kyler Murray, who ran for 49 yards against them while also throwing for 266 on an efficient 17-for-21. Hurts will be looking for a similar line in this matchup.
Jayden Daniels, Washington
Jayden Daniels goes into Week 12 with a Matchup Index of +10 against a reeling Dallas Cowboys team. We project Daniels for 230.6 pass yards and 38.6 rushing yards, both slightly over Vegas expectations. The Cowboys have given up a grotesque five rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks on the ground this season, including the likes of Derek Carr and Brock Purdy. When they faced other top Fantasy quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson had 87 rushing yards and a touchdown, and Hurts went for 56 and two touchdowns on the ground against them. Expect a Commanders’ win and the opportunity for a big fantasy day from Jayden Daniels in this contest.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Lamar Jackson goes into Monday Night Football against the Chargers with a Matchup Index of +6. We project him for 248.6 pass yards and a whopping 58 rushing yards, 15.1 percent above Vegas expectations. The Chargers have faced two dual-threat quarterbacks this season in Justin Fields and Kyler Murray, and both found the end zone on the ground. However, the Chargers are sixth in our Adjusted Rush EPA/play on the season. Jackson has a chance to shine on Monday Night, but Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will no doubt have a plan to slow him down on the ground. That said, like Jackson always says, the Ravens offense is pick your poison, and it helps to have Derrick Henry standing next to him in the backfield.
Bonus QB - Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis
Anthony Richardson has a Matchup Index of +18 against the Lions on Sunday. We have him projected for 177.8 pass yards and 45.5 rush yards. The Lions have played some of the best defense in the League against the pass and run this season, ranking second against the pass and tenth against the run in our Adjusted EPA/play metric. That said, this could be more of a question of game script from a fantasy perspective for Richardson. The Lions offense is explosive, and the Colts will have to score to keep up. Also, if the Lions jump out to a big lead (something they’ve done a lot of), the Colts may be forced into some up-tempo and give Richardson a chance to rack up numbers in Week 12.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 RBs
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco
Christian McCaffrey enters Week 12 with a Matchup Index of +4 against Green Bay. In two weeks back from injury, McCaffrey has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage both times and we project him for 107.1 combined rushing and receiving yards this week. The Packers have given up four 100-yard rushing games to backs this season. In their last four games, they’ve relinquished five rushing touchdowns to running backs. Green Bay is middle of the pack, ranking 13th in our Adjusted Rush EPA/play. McCaffrey’s matchup is relatively neutral here, but as always, when he’s on the field, expect a big day from CMC.
Joe Mixon, Houston
Joe Mixon has a Matchup Index of +2 against the Titans on Sunday. Mixon has been on an all-time heater. In seven games that he’s started and finished this season, he’s scored ten touchdowns, including at least one in every contest, and rushed for over 100 yards in all but one of those games, with the lone exception in Week 10 against the Lions. It’s no wonder he’s Footballguys top top-ranked back this week. However, Tennessee is eighth in our Adjusted Rush EPA/play this season. The Titans have only given up a 100-yard rusher once this season (Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 8), but they’ve relinquished six rushing touchdowns to running backs in the last five weeks. There’s a good chance Mixon finds the endzone in this one, but it may be difficult for him to crack the century mark yet again.
De'Von Achane, Miami
De'Von Achane has a Matchup Index of -2 against the Patriots on Sunday. We project him for 68.3 rush yards and 32.2 yards receiving in this contest. New England has not given up a touchdown to a running back in the last three weeks, so it could be difficult for Achane to find the end zone, but New England is just 27th in Adjusted Rush EPA/play. Achane should have a chance to churn out some yards from scrimmage, but to live up to his Footballguys RB3 on the week, he’ll need to find the end zone in Week 12.
Bonus RB - James Conner, Arizona
James Conner faces the Seahawks on Sunday with a Matchup Index of +13, projected 5.3 percent over his Vegas rushing total. Conner has gone over 100 yards four times this year, and Seattle is 25th in Adjusted Rush EPA/play this season. Arizona will try to control this game on the ground, and Conner shows advantages in Point of Attack, light box, and personnel against the Seahawk defense. As Footballguys RB10 running back in Week 12, Conner is a good option for a DFS RB1 play this week.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 WRs
Nico Collins, Houston
Nico Collins has a Matchup Index of +21 against Tennessee on Sunday, projected 5.1 percent over his receiving total. The Texans worked him back in slowly in his first week back against the Cowboys, although he still caught four passes for 54 yards and had a long touchdown called back on the first play of the game. Collins is poised to return to his All-Pro early season form, but the Titans have only given up a single 100-yard receiving game this season (Keon Coleman in Week 7). That said, Collins may be the most explosive receiver in the game right now. Look for him to do major damage in Week 12.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota
Justin Jefferson enters Week 12 with a Matchup Index of -12 against the Bears, projected 1.3 percent below his Vegas total for receiving yards. Chicago, as a team, has struggled recently, but their defense is still ranked fourth against the pass in Adjusted dropback EPA/play. Even with that in consideration, Jefferson is still pulling in a whopping 31.6 percent target share for Minnesota this year and is more likely than not to go off in any Vikings game. As always, Jefferson is plug-and-play, but you might avoid spending up in DFS in this matchup.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit
Amon-Ra St. Brown has a Matchup Index of -16 against the Colts on Sunday, projected 2.7 percent below expectation for receiving yards. The Colts have only given up nine touchdowns to wide receivers on the season. St. Brown had his biggest game of the season last week against the Jags, catching all 11 of his targets for 161 yards and two touchdowns, continuing a streak of eight straight games finding the end zone. St. Brown is one of the most consistent performers in fantasy and always gives a strong baseline. We’re unsure if this will be one of his most explosive games.
Bonus WR - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle
Go down the list to Footballguys WR12, and you’ll find Jaxon Smith-Njigba with a Matchup Index of +17, projected at 3.7 percent over his total for receiving yards. Arizona is 18th in Adjusted Dropback EPA/play and may not have the pieces to match up with the Seahawks' weapons on the outside. Smith-Njigba has 17 receptions for 290 yards over his last two games and found the end zone twice against the Rams two games ago. With a strong matchup this weekend, look for him to ride the wave and continue the hot streak for a third straight game in Week 12.
That’s it for now. Be sure to check out the Field Vision App for our view on every player in every game via the Matchup Index, and check out our proprietary Threat and Havoc ratings that rank offensive (Threat) and defensive (Havoc) players relative to their position groups. Until next time, enjoy week 12.
