The Matchup Index
Each week at Field Vision, we put together The Matchup Index: our proprietary tool that rates every player in the NFL's matchup on a scale of -100 to 100. We're partnering with Footballguys to bring the best of our Matchup Index to you weekly. In our Matchups of the Week article, we'll look at Footballguys' top three players at each major position group and tell you who has the best and worst matchups for the week. Then, we'll throw in our Field Vision bonus pick for each position: a player not ranked at the top who might be worth a start based on a favorable matchup that week.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 QBs
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Josh Allen enters week 11 with a Matchup Index of -3 against the Chiefs. With Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts both playing on Thursday night, we have a chance for some new blood in the QB section this week. We project Allen for 227.7 passing yards, 2.3 percent below his Vegas expectation, but we do see an opportunity in the run game. We project him for 38 rushing yards, 10 percent over expectation, and a full 10 yards over Footballguys projection of 28. Through the air, the Chiefs have given up at least 2 passing touchdowns to each of the last 3 quarterbacks they've faced, and they gave up two on the ground to Brock Purdy in Week 7. The Matchup isn't great for Allen, but there are still opportunities for Allen to shine in Week 11.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco
Brock Purdy has a Matchup Index of -3 as well in week 11, facing the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is 22nd in adjusted dropback EPA/play this season. We project Purdy for 255.7 pass yards and 18.2 yards on the ground, which is slightly lower than Footballguys projections in both categories. Purdy is averaging 272.7 pass yards per game with 15 touchdowns this season. The Seahawks have given up 246 pass yards or more to quarterbacks every game since Week 4, a stretch that has had them losing five-of-six games. They also gave up multiple passing touchdowns in all but one of those games. There is definitely an opportunity for Purdy to do damage through the air in Week 11.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Lamar Jackson plays the Steelers with a Matchup Index of -15. We project Jackson for 228.3 passing yards, 3.5 percent below Vegas expectations and 20 yards under Footballguys number of 248. We also show a disadvantage in the run game, projecting him for 41.3 yards, five percent under expectation and lower than Footballguys number of 50. Despite reputation, the Steelers are only 14th in adjusted dropback EPA/play this season but rank third against the run. One major problem for Jackson in this one is that the Steelers have not given up a rushing touchdown to a quarterback so far this season. Could Jackson buck this trend? Of course, he could, but the odds are against him. You're obviously starting Jackson every week, but you might temper expectations against the Steelers in Week 11.
Bonus QB - Jared Goff, Lions
If you're looking for streaming options, you can go down the list to Footballguys' QB12 for the week, Jared Goff. Goff has a Matchup Index of +36 in Week 11 against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is 32nd, otherwise known as dead last, in our adjusted dropback EPA/play after 10 weeks. We project Goff for 238.1 passing yards, 7.7 percent over his Vegas over/under. Since Week 3, the Jags have given up multiple passing touchdowns to the quarterback in all but one week. No doubt, Goff is looking to bounce back from his five-interception game last week, and he has just the opponent to do it.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 RBs
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco
Christan McCaffrey, Footballguys number 1 ranked running back this week, has a Matchup Index of +47 against the Seahawks in Week 11. Notably, the 49ers rushed for 228 yards without McCaffrey in a Week 6 win in Seattle. We show the point of attack, box, and personnel advantages for him in this one. Seattle is 28th in our adjusted rush EPA/play on defense. All of that without even mentioning McCaffrey's impact in the receiving game where the 49ers show an advantage in the short part of the field. McCaffrey is not only a good start this week( duh), but could be worth spending up on in DFS formats in Week 11.
De'Von Achane, Miami
De'Von Achane enters Week 11 with a Matchup Index of -8 against the Raiders on Sunday. We project Achane for 62.6 yards, slightly (0.2 percent) higher than his Vegas Over/Under compared to Footballguys projection of 65 yards. Achane's matchup gets hairy in the receiving game, where we project him for 33.4 yards, which is 5.8 percent under expectation. In order to have the week you want, Achane will need to find the end zone. The Raiders have given up 10 touchdowns to running backs through nine games this season. Will it be Achane who finds the endzone out of the Dolphins backfield? If so, it could salvage his fantasy value.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
Alvin Kamara has a Matchup Index of -15 in Week 11 against the Browns. Save for a 155-yard game against the Panthers, Kamara has been fairly pedestrian over the last six weeks, capping out with his second-highest total at 67 against the Chargers in Week 8. We project Kamara for 69.6 rushing yards, four percent under his Vegas total, and 37.9 receiving yards, 1.6 percent under expectation. The Browns run defense is middle of the pack. They have yet to give up more than 85 yards on the ground to a single running back this season but have given up nine rushing touchdowns to running backs on the year. However, Kamara is always a receiving threat, and the Browns have not given up any touchdowns to running backs through the air this season. You'll obviously start Kamara if you have him, but I wouldn't go looking for him in DFS formats.
Bonus RB - Nick Chubb, Cleveland
For our bonus pick, we'll go to the same game and Footballguys 24th ranked running back, Nick Chubb, who has a Matchup Index of +26 in Week 11. New Orleans' rush defense is surprisingly bad at 29th in adjusted rush EPA/play through 10 weeks. Chubb is slowly getting back into the groove, and the Browns will continue to use him more as the season goes along. We project Chubb for 63.6 rushing yards, 5.2 percent over his Vegas total. Also, New Orleans has given up multiple rushing touchdowns to individual running backs in three out of the last four weeks. If you seek him out in DFS, Chubb could pay off for you in Week 11.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 WRs
Nico Collins, Houston
Nico Collins heads into Week 11 with a Matchup Index of +3. It's not much above neutral, but it is the best of Footballguys top three receivers this week. Collins was on fire before he pulled up with a lame hamstring in Week 5 after catching another bomb from C.J. Stroud. He may be just what the doctor ordered for this Texans offense to get back on track against the Cowboys. Dallas is ranked 30th in adjusted EPA/play on dropbacks defensively this year. One drawback is that Dallas has not given up a multi-touchdown game to any receiver this season. If you've been waiting for Collins to return, you probably don't care what I say. You're just pumped to get to insert him into your starting lineup.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit
Amon-Ra St. Browns goes into Week 11 with a Matchup Index of -13 against the Jags defense. We project him for 74.5 yards, 3.2 percent under his Vegas total. The Jaguars show an advantage in the short and intermediate part of the field, where St. Brown likes to operate. The Jags were able to hold Justin Jefferson to just 48 yards in Week 10. We would never say not to start St. Brown, but you might not want to seek him in DFS formats or trades this week.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati
Ja'Marr Chase, Footballguys' WR1 this week, has Matchup Index of -27 against the Chargers defense this week. If you're a Chase manager, you are riding high off of last week's performance against the Ravens, and rightfully so, but it could be a different story against the Chargers. Chase has often been a boom or bust type of player, and the Chargers have the 7th best adjusted EPA/play against dropbacks this season. Field Vision projects Chase for 74.6 yards, 6.2 percent under his Vegas total. In fact, we are confident enough about it to make his under one of our best bets in Week 11. Do what you want with that information. If you have him, you're obviously going to throw him in and hope for another boom week, but we don't recommend going out and trying to acquire Chase at his current price before this week. He might be a lot cheaper come next week.
Bonus WR - DJ Moore, Chicago
D.J. Moore, Footballguys number 31 receiver this week, has a Matchup Index of +67 in Week 11, projected 12.8 percent above his Vegas total. It doesn't translate to a huge week, but if you can get him on the cheap, Moore could be a good option to start this week with a projection of 50.2 receiving yards. The Green Bay defense has given up at least a touchdown to a wide receiver in all but one game this season. Chicago switched out offensive coordinators this week, and we've seen the one-week bump in performance from coaching changes often this week. If you're trying to go cheap at wide receiver and need a DFS option, Moore is a good pick.
That's it for now. Be sure to check out the Field Vision App for our view on every player in every game via the Matchup Index, and check out our proprietary Threat and Havoc ratings that rank offensive (Threat) and defensive (Havoc) players relative to their position groups. Until next time, enjoy week 11.
