The Matchup Index
Each week at Field Vision, we put together The Matchup Index: our proprietary tool that rates every player in the NFL’s matchup on a scale of -100 to 100. We’re partnering with Footballguys to bring the best of our Matchup Index to you weekly. In our weekly Matchup Index article, we’ll look at Footballguys' top three players at each major position group and tell you who has the best and worst matchups for the week. Then, we’ll throw in our Field Vision bonus pick for each position: a player not ranked at the top who might be worth a start based on a favorable matchup that week.
The Field Vision Matchup Index for the Top 3 QBs
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Josh Allen is ranked fourth by Footballguys this week, but with Lamar Jackson on Thursday Night, we’ll spotlight him here. He enters week 10 with a Matchup Index of +5, which is actually tops among the premium quarterbacks this week. We project him with a deep area field advantage against the Colts defense and have him over his Vegas passing total of 245.5. The Colts have allowed 285 yards or more to 5 different quarterbacks this season and allowed Sam Darnold to throw for 3 scores in week 9. We do, however, project Allen 7.9 percent under his Vegas rushing total, which could be a drawback for Fantasy Managers.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Jalen Hurts has a Matchup Index of -1 in week 10. He is Footballguys third-ranked quarterback on the week. We don’t see strong signals, positively or negatively, in this game against the Cowboys in terms of yardage, but the Cowboys have given up three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, which is always a huge part of the Hurts arsenal. Both Footballguys and Field Vision project him at approximately 217 pass yards, but we are slightly lower on rushing yards with Footballguys projecting 40 yards to our 36. One spot we do see an advantage for Hurts is in the short/intermediate passing game, with a 14.2 yards over expected projection in that area.
Jayden Daniels, Washington
Jayden Daniels goes into his game against the Steelers with a Matchup Index of -4 in Week 10. He is Footballguys' second-ranked quarterback this week, behind only Lamar Jackson. The Steelers come off their bye having not given up a rushing touchdown to a quarterback all season. They’ve also only given up an average of one passing touchdown per game across their eight contests. We see Daniels with disadvantages throwing deep against the Steelers defense and project him for approximately 220 passing yards, 23 yards less than Footballguys projections. We also expect 42.4 rushing yards, 12 yards less than Footballguys expectations.
Bonus QB - Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
Tua Tagovailoa is probably not on a ton of radars in redraft leagues right now, but if you’re looking for a spot start due to a bye or a potential DFS cheap play, he has a Matchup Index of +24 despite being ranked only QB19 in Footballguys weekly rankings. The downside of Tua is there is absolutely no rushing upside, but we have him projected to throw for 265.3 yards in the matchup with the Rams. LA has also given up multiple touchdown passes to the quarterback in five of their eight games this season. Tagovailoa could have a big game through the air if this turns into a shootout.
The Field Vision Matchup Index for the Top 3 RBs
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
Alvin Kamara has a Matchup Index of +7 in week 10 against the Falcons. Kamara is averaging 73.3 yards on the ground and another 40.8 through the air this season and has 16 explosive plays (over 10-yard carries). His target share of 23.2 percent is enormous for a running back. He is Footballguys No. 1 ranked running back on the week, and there is good reason for it. Atlanta has given up a touchdown through the air to a running back in each of the last three weeks. With the Falcons offense humming, the Saints will have to score to keep up, and who knows, maybe they get the proverbial new coach bump in their first game without Dennis Allen.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta
Another dual-threat running back clocks in as Footballguys No. 2 back for Week 10. Bijan Robinson has a Matchup Index of +4. We project Robinson for 111.9 yards from scrimmage, slightly less than Footballguys 115. The Saints have given up multiple rushing touchdowns to backs four times this season, but you always have to watch for Tyler Allgeir cutting into Robinson’s opportunity to score. He only has a single 100-yard rushing game this season, but at the rate the Saints have been giving up gash plays on the ground, look for Robinson to potentially change that in this one. New Orleans is 27th in Field Vision’s adjusted rush EPA/play this season.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia
Saquon Barkley has a Matchup Index of -11 against the Cowboys in week 10. We have him projected for 93 yards on the ground to Footballguys even 100, but we are slightly higher on receiving yards for Barkley at 19.3. The Cowboys defense has given up 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs on the season and Barkley has already found the end zone eight times this year. As Field Vision’s first-half offensive player of the year, Barkley’s matchup isn’t as good as you might think against the Cowboys, but we still like him to have a good game and continue his monster season.
Bonus RB - Chuba Hubbard, Carolina
Look further down the Footballguys rankings to RB25, and you’ll find Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard has a Matchup Index of +30 against the Giants, tops among running backs in the Field Vision app. We project Hubbard for 74 yards on the ground, 8.1 percent over his Vegas total, and 10 yards over Footballguys projection. One thing to watch for will be his ability to find the endzone, as the Giants have only given up four rushing touchdowns to running backs this year, but Hubbard has found paydirt 6 times himself this season.
The Field Vision Matchup Index for the Top 3 WRs
Malik Nabers, NY Giants
Malik Nabers checks in as Footballguys' fourth receiver but makes our list with Ja’Marr Chase playing on Thursday Night Football. Nabers leads the elite pass catchers with a Matchup Index of +7 against the Panthers. We project him for 72.8 yards, about three yards less than Footballguys 76. Carolina has not given up a receiving touchdown to a wide receiver in the last three games, so that’s something to watch for in this one. But Nabers is still hauling an insane 28.5 percent target share for the Giants. He’s only found the endzone three times this year, so a trend will have to change if he’s going to score in Germany.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota
Justin Jefferson plays Jacksonville on Sunday and has a Matchup Index of -8. We project Jefferson for 93.5 yards, slightly less than the 100 for Footballguys. There is still a lot to like about Jefferson in this one, though. He’s pulling in a 33.3 percent target share for Minnesota, and the Jaguars have the worst adjusted dropback EPA/play in the league, according to Field Vision. Jefferson has found the end zone 5 times this season, but the Jaguars have only given up two touchdowns to wide receivers over the last three games, including contests against Green Bay and Philadelphia.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit
Amon-Ra St. Brown enters Week 10 with a Matchup Index of -22. The Lions are on fire right now, but it has been largely through the run game with mixed in play action passing. St. Brown is averaging only 58 yards per game, but he has found the end zone seven times and is still getting a 28.4 percent target share. Houston has the 12th-best adjusted dropback EPA/Play according to Field Vision, but they’ve given up most of their touchdowns through the air with 14 scores going to wide receiver against them this year, including three for the Jets last week. St. Brown might not put up huge yards in this one, but he definitely has a chance to find the endzone.
Bonus WR - Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville
Brian Thomas Jr. is 18th in Footballguys Week 10 rankings. He has a Matchup Index of +15. Thomas has been somewhat up and down in his rookie campaign, but he is still the Jaguars' main deep threat, and he’s another week removed from a chest injury that knocked him out early two weeks ago. We project him for 66 yards, 3.8 percent over expectation. Also, the Minnesota defense is tough, but before not allowing Colts receivers into the endzone, they had given up multiple touchdowns to the position each of the 4 weeks before that. Thomas Jr. could outperform expectations in this one.
That’s it for now. Be sure to check out the Field Vision App for our view on every player in every game via the Matchup Index, and check out our proprietary Threat and Havoc ratings that rank offensive (Threat) and defensive (Havoc) players relative to their position groups. Until next time, enjoy week 10.
