The Matchup Index
Each week at Field Vision, we put together The Matchup Index: our proprietary tool that rates every player in the NFL’s matchup on a scale of -100 to 100. We’re partnering with Footballguys to bring the best of our Matchup Index to you weekly. In our Matchups of the Week article, we’ll look at Footballguys' top three players at each major position group and tell you who has the best and worst matchups for the week. Then, we’ll throw in our Field Vision bonus pick for each position: a player not ranked at the top who might be worth a start based on a favorable matchup that week.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 QBs
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Jalen Hurts has a week 9 Matchup Index of +47, projected to go over his Vegas Totals in passing and rushing. He shows advantages in the passing game in field area, scheme, blitz, and personnel against the Jacksonville defense and also gets a bump for being at home. This Jaguars defense has been carved up for over 300 yards passing three times this year, which does not include a four-touchdown first half that Josh Allen put up on them in Week 3. We also project Hurts 5.6 percent over his rushing total at over 40 yards on the ground. All signs point to a good day for the Eagles QB.
Jayden Daniels, Washington
Coming off the high of the Hail Mary against Chicago, Daniels enters Week 9 with a Matchup Index of +15. He’s projected slightly over his passing total but a whopping 16 percent above expected in rushing yards at 53.4. The last time the Commanders played the Giants, they settled for seven field goals and got the win. For Daniels to have the fantasy day managers are looking for, they’ll need to punch it in the endzone this week. It could be difficult, as New York has only given up nine passing touchdowns in eight games. However, they did relinquish two on the ground to Jalen Hurts in Week 7. Expect Daniels to move the ball in this one, but it will all come down to the touchdown production.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Lamar Jackson enters the contest against Denver with a Matchup Index of +7. We see his matchup as relatively neutral against the Broncos. Denver has not given up more than 237 pass yards to any single quarterback in a game this year, and their high mark for yards given up on the ground was Spencer Rattler with 34 in Week 7. None of those numbers bode well for Jackson on Sunday, but he is also the best quarterback they’ve faced and we project him for 219.2 yards through the air and 60.6 yards on the ground, both over his Vegas totals. He’s No. 1 in Footballguys rankings, but if I’m spending up in DFS, I’d probably lean more towards Hurts.
Bonus QB - Daniel Jones, NY Giants
Daniel Jones has a Matchup Index of +11 in Week 9. After the top three listed here and Josh Allen at No. 4, there’s a steep drop off of quarterback options this week. If you go way down the list in DFS and save money at this position, you could go to Footballguys #16 quarterback in Jones. Washington’s defense has looked better as of late, but Jones threw for two touchdowns and rushed for 32 yards in Week 2 against the Commanders. We have him project 2.3 percent over his passing total and 5.9 percent over his rushing total.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 RBs
Kyren Williams, LA Rams
Kyren Williams enters week 9 with a Matchup Index of +22, projected for 96.9 yards- 7% over his expected total. There’s good reason to be optimistic about Williams in this one. Seattle has given up a 100-yard rusher in thre of the last four games. The one exception was against the 49ers, where Jordan Mason was well on his way to 100, then got hurt, and Isaac Guerendo came in a ripped off 99 yards on only 10 carries. They’ve also given up four touchdowns on the ground to running backs over the last three games. In this one, we show a point-of-attack advantage, a light box advantage, and a personnel advantage for Williams. As Footballguys #3 running back this week, we think Williams could be worth paying up for in DFS.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota
Aaron Jones has a Matchup Index of +11 in Week 9 against the Colts. Jones is Footballguys #2 running back on the week. Indianapolis has given up four 100-yard rushers this season, including a pair to Joe Mixon of the Texans, who coincidentally is Footballguys #1 entering the week but played on Thursday Night, so he doesn’t make this article. We project Jones over his expected rushing and receiving totals slightly this week at 72.2 rushing yards and 21.2 receiving yards. He has a point of attack and personnel advantage against the Colts. Jones is a potential pay-up in DFS, but not a home run pick.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
Alvin Kamara has a Matchup Index of 0 against the Panthers, projected to be in an exactly neutral matchup. He checks in as Footballguys #4 this week but makes this list based on Mixon having already played. We project Kamara for 65.8 rushing yards slightly higher than Footballguys' projection, but we have him checking in at 30.1 receiving yards compared to Footballguys 35. Carolina has given up 14 touchdowns to running backs this season, so there’s definitely room for Kamara to have a big game.
Bonus RB - James Conner, Arizona
Look down Footballguys' list to No. 17, and you’ll find James Conner with a Matchup Index of +28. We project Conner 4.6 percent over his rushing total and 16.3 percent over his receiving total. The Bears defense has also given up six touchdowns on the ground to running backs this season. Conner could be a good option if you’re looking for a deeper play or to save some money on running back in DFS.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 WRs
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota
Justin Jefferson appears on this list about every week and he’s always a good play in fantasy, but he also tops our list of elite receivers this week with a Matchup Index of +8. It’s a modest number to be the top guy, but we still like his matchup better than CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase. Jefferson is still hauling in a massive 34.9 percent target share for the Vikings this season. The Colts have given up a 100-yard receiver four times this season but none since week 5. Look for that to change against the Vikings and Jefferson on Sunday.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas
CeeDee Lamb comes into week 9 with a Matchup Index of -4 against the Falcons defense. Atlanta has only relinquished 100 yards to a receiver once this season. That was Rashee Rice in Week 2. Like a healthy Rice on the Chiefs, Lamb is just about the only reliable receiver weapon for the Cowboys, so similar results could be in store. If you’re a Lamb manager, the hope is this turns into a shootout, and the Cowboys are playing catch-up late, as was the case last week against the 49ers. Lamb is still always a great play, but the Falcons' secondary doesn’t match up badly.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati
Ja'Marr Chase has a Matchup Index of -8 in week 9 against the Raiders. We see disadvantages for the Bengals passing attack in the intermediate and deep parts of the field against Las Vegas. The Raiders secondary hasn’t given up more than 57 yards to a receiver since week 4. Diontae Johnson had the biggest receiving game of the year against them with 122 yards in week 3. Chase is still a monster with an average of 6 receptions for 84.4 yards per game, but be careful spending big on him in DFS formats with this matchup.
Bonus WR - Puka Nacua, LA Rams
Look at Footballguys' rankings to No. 6, and you’ll find Puka Nacua with a Matchup Index of +36 against the Seattle defense. We see a huge advantage underneath in the short part of the field for Nacua and project him 7.7 percent above his expected total for receiving yards. Nacua came back last week and showed no ill effects from his injury, so we’re expecting him to pick up where he left off. Khalil Shakir took advantage of the Seahawks' underneath coverage to the tune of 107 yards last week. Nacua should be a great player to spend up on in DFS.
That’s it for now. Be sure to check out the Field Vision App for our view on every player in every game via the Matchup Index, and check out our proprietary Threat and Havoc ratings that rank offensive (Threat) and defensive (Havoc) players relative to their position groups. Until next time, enjoy Week 9.
