The Matchup Index
Each week at Field Vision, we put together The Matchup Index: our proprietary tool that rates every player in the NFL’s matchup on a scale of -100 to 100. We’re partnering with Footballguys to bring the best of our Matchup Index to you weekly. In our Matchups of the Week article, we’ll look at Footballguys' top three players at each major position group and tell you who has the best and worst matchups for the week. Then, we’ll throw in our Field Vision bonus pick for each position: a player not ranked at the top who might be worth a start based on a favorable matchup that week.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 QBs
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Josh Allen enters week 8 with a Matchup Index of +6, the best among Footballguys top 3 quarterbacks. The Seattle defense has given up at least 246 passing yards in four straight games since a three-week stretch at the start of the season that saw them face Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and the combination of Tim Boyle and Skylar Thompson for the Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins. Allen has an advantage in the short and intermediate part of the field, which could carry over to one of his favorite targets, Khalil Shakir, if you’re looking for a deep start at wide receiver. We also project Allen for 32.8 rushing yards, slightly higher than the Footballguys 30.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Lamar Jackson has a Matchup Index of -4 this week against the Cleveland Browns. It’s not an overly great matchup for Jackson in the passing game, but we still project him for 61 rushing yards, 4 greater than the Footballguys projection. Jackson looked unstoppable against the Buccaneers on Monday Night, but one thing should give you a little pause in this matchup. Cleveland has yet to give up a rushing touchdown to a quarterback this season despite having already faced running quarterbacks in Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts. Look for a big game from Jackson, as usual, but don’t be surprised if he fails to find the end zone with his legs.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Jalen Hurts faces the Cincinnati Bengals with a Matchup Index of -6 in week 8. We see advantages for the Cincinnati defense in the short and intermediate areas of the field, but with all his weapons back, Hurts will be looking down the field to A.J. Brown in this one. Hurts and the Eagles offense will be a tougher test for Cincinnati than a hapless Browns team was last week, and the Bengals have given up over 40 yards on the ground to quarterbacks in each of the last three weeks. We project Jalen Hurts to be 1.5 percent over his Vegas rushing total, and it could get a lot worse if the Bengals don’t shore up their quarterback run defense.
Bonus QB - Bo Nix, Denver
Bo Nix has a Matchup of Index of +12 heading into week 8 against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers defense started the year serviceable but has gone downhill as the season progresses. They gave up 84 yards on the ground to the combination of Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota last week, and Bo Nix has also shown the ability to use his legs. The Footballguys project Nix for 35 yards on the ground while we’re at just 26.3. Either way, he has a chance to do damage with his legs, and we both project him over 200 passing yards.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 RBs
Joe Mixon, Houston
Joe Mixon enters week 8 with a Matchup Index of +13. Mixon has been a revelation in the Houston offense, going for over 100 yards on the ground in every game he’s started and finished this season. He had 159 and a touchdown in week 1 against the Colts, who have given up 100 yards on the ground in every game except two this season. We see a personnel advantage against the Colts defensive line as well as a point-of-attack advantage in the middle for Mixon against the Colts defense. Look for Mixon to have another strong fantasy game in week 8.
Breece Hall, NY Jets
Breece Hall has an exactly neutral Matchup Index of 0 in week 8. We don’t see any major matchup advantages one way or the other against the Patriots, but Hall has really only had two exceptional fantasy games this season. The good thing for Hall owners is they’ve been the last two weeks against the Bills and the Steelers. The Footballguys has him as their No. 1 running back this week with a projection of 104 yards from scrimmage and 0.8 touchdowns. We are slightly lower, projecting 99 yards from Hall this week, mostly due to our 25.5 receiving yards projected compared to Footballguys' 38.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit
Jahmyr Gibbs has a Matchup Index of -3 against the Titans this weekend. The Titans have been relatively solid against the run this season, giving up only three rushing touchdowns to backs on the year, and Breece Hall had the biggest rushing day of the season against them with 62 yards. However, Tennessee has given up another four touchdowns through the air to running backs in just six games. This is where Gibbs could do his damage in this one. We have him projected for 2 percent over his receiving total with 26 yards through the air in week 8 giving him a reasonable chance to find the end zone that way.
Bonus RB - J.K. Dobbins, LA Chargers
J.K. Dobbins has a Matchup Index of +23 in week 8, projected 6.2 percent over his rushing total against the Saints. New Orleans has given up three 100-yard rushers this season, including to the likes of Kareem Hunt and Sean Tucker, in recent weeks. After a blistering first two weeks, Dobbins has come back down to earth a bit, but we think this could be a game for him to get back on track, projecting him for 95.2 yards from scrimmage, 80.2 of them on the ground.
The Matchup Index for the Top 3 WRs
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia
A.J. Brown leads our top receivers this week with a Matchup Index of -7. As you can tell, we did not love the Matchups of any of the Footballguys top 3 this week. To be fair, their WR1, Justin Jefferson, had a good number from us, but he played on Thursday Night so we did not include him in this article. Despite a slightly below 0 number, Brown is facing a team that has given up 100-yard games this season to Zay Flowers and Terry McLaurin. Look for him to do some damage over the top, but he may struggle in the short/intermediate game against Cincinnati.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati
Ja'Marr Chase enters week 8 with a Matchup Index of -8 against the Eagles. Chase shows a negative field area advantage in the intermediate and deep parts of the field. In week 1, the Eagles were beaten badly with yards after the catch by Jayden Reed, but they were able to control Malik Nabers last week. We project Chase for 72.2 receiving yards, 2 percent below his over/under in Vegas. If Chase can break a big one, he could still have a big day, but Tee Higgins has been eating up a large percentage of the target share as of late, with Chase only at 22.3 percent on the season.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas
CeeDee Lamb, the Footballguys No. 4 receiver this week, has a Matchup Index of -42 this week, projected 8.6 percent below his Vegas receiving total. Footballguys project Lamb for 83 receiving yards this week compared to just 69 in our projections. The 49ers defense shows a strong advantage against the Cowboys in the intermediate part of the field. The 49ers have given up just one 100-yard receiver this season. That was Justin Jefferson in week 2, who was aided by a 97-yard reception. Lamb is obviously still a start in any redraft league, but we might be careful taking him in DFS.
Bonus WR - George Pickens, Pittsburgh
If you look down the Footballguys rankings to No. 13, you’ll find George Pickens with a Matchup Index of +29, projected 6.4 percent over his receiving total. With Russell Wilson inserted as the Steeler quarterback, moonballs will continue to come the way of Pickens. He is one of the best contested-catch receivers in the league. With a whopping 29.7 percent target share this year, we like his chances to pull in a few of those deep balls and have a big fantasy day for managers.
That’s it for now. Be sure to check out the Field Vision App for our view on every player in every game via the Matchup Index, and check out our proprietary Threat and Havoc ratings that rank offensive (Threat) and defensive (Havoc) players relative to their position groups. Until next time, enjoy week 8.
