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Gut Feelings: Honor or Ignore?

Gut feelings -- be it intuition, emotional intelligence, or for some of you, misdiagnosed gas pains -- can have a powerful influence on the course of our lives. 

After my first call with Alicia, I knew I had just met my wife. I've had gut feelings about several important life events. When I listened, they worked out. When I ignored them, it was at my peril.   

It's more problematic with football, but it happens.

In January 2016, I walked into my office to begin a film session on a 2016 NFL Draft prospect. On my office television was the Texas Tech-LSU bowl game. I saw the Tech quarterback make two throws, and my gut reaction was to immediately shut off the TV. 

I knew I had just seen a better iteration of Brett Favre and the best quarterback I would ever scout at that point in my career. I knew in my soul that if I watched any more of Patrick Mahomes II, I would not stop until I saw every Tech game on my hard drives, and I didn't have time to study a quarterback who was at least a year away from declaring for the NFL Draft. 

I'm not claiming to be Nostradamus. I'm not delusional -- I miss a lot, and you don't live your life solely on gut feeling. Yet, I've heard that Nostradamus reference from subscribers after revisiting Mahomes' RSP pre-draft scouting report. The same has been true with Nick Chubb, Lamar Jackson, and several others.

I only have gut feelings occasionally and it doesn't change that I am methodical with my scouting of football players, or big decisions in my life for that matter. Alicia would tell you my decision-making style as someone daring enough to jump off a cliff. 

In the next breath, she'll tell you that first, I would run up to the edge of the cliff, inspect the drop, the runway of grass leading to the cliff, the stones and branches on the runway, the wind, and how I'm feeling in that moment. Only after that considerable time spent ruminating on the risks do I decide to jump. 

It's true of my scouting. I have hundreds of defined criteria that I use to break down players' games into details that can dispel the magical sway of singular moments, highlight packages, Combines, and Pro Days. 

I run players through this process to eliminate every drop of superficial conclusions or gut feelings from the equation. If the player still excels, it's validation. If not, it either mitigates or cancels it. 

After all, some theorize that strong and accurate gut feelings are the result of 10,000-plus hours of life experience, observation, and study percolating to the surface of our consciousness. I can roll with that.  

It's okay to honor your gut feelings if you have them. It doesn't mean you act on all of them. It's more often sensible not to. I've learned when to act on them in certain life situations. In my career, I still honor a rigorous process to test them. 

This week isn't one of those times. This week is entertainment combined with film study and, in most cases, a dash of gut feeling. If any of these thoughts about the 2024 fantasy season resonate in my gut stronger than stated above, I'll let you know. 

Or, I'll consider laying off the bean salads. 

2024 Gut Checks

I have a gut feeling...

I'm Too Low on Caleb Williams This Year

In dynasty leagues, he's my No.1 overall prospect. In re-draft, he's QB18, and I'm tempted to flip-flop him straight up with Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield for the 12th or 13th spot on my QB board. This is a moderately strong gut feeling. 

Williams' offensive line concerns me enough that I think it could impact his 2024 production, but the talent will shine through even if the results aren't always consistent. Still, Williams' skill weapons are excellent and he has the elite tools to make throws we only see from a handful of quarterbacks. 

My Gut Is Wrong About Najee Harris, but Ride or Die, Baby

Harris is my No.10 fantasy RB. It's a bold call for a player who could split significant time with an impressive backfield mate in Jaylen Warren. My gut feeling is that I'm too high on Harris, but I'm standing firm. 

The general public places too much value on Harris' low yards per carry outputs and not enough emphasis on flagging offensive line and quarterback performances. They also see that the Steelers didn't pick up Harris' option and concluded that they would pay ahead for 2025 if Harris were good enough. 

It's easy to forget about the punishing nature of the position and the wealth of talent available around the league. It's not economically sensible if the player hasn't demonstrated rare greatness. The fan mentality often views players in two boxes: great or terrible. 

Harris is a good running back in an Arthur Smith offense that should favor him in the red zone and with overall volume. My gut feeling is that Warren is too good to ignore. But I believe Russell Wilson will be the Steelers' quarterback, Pittsburgh will run the ball a lot, and they will play good enough defense that Harris delivers as a top-12 option, again, and Warren manages top-25 production. 

My Gut Is Right About Stefon Diggs, but I'm Not High Enough on Him

My gut feeling is that Diggs hasn't lost anything but a quarterback who he didn't think was doing enough of the prep work to maximize his greatness for January football. Josh Allen is an awesome talent who leans hard on his physical skills and there were moments where Diggs lost his temper and, eventually his patience, because he believed Allen failed on a handful of plays that could have made a difference in the playoffs.

Plays that Patrick Mahomes II and Joe Burrow would have made. Plays that he hopes C.J. Stroud will make. 

Diggs' decline in production last year came after the Bills switched to Joe Brady from Ken Dorsey. Brady was charged with creating a scheme to spread the ball around and not lean on one superstar option. The Bills knew Diggs' tenure in Buffalo was coming to an end and were preparing for it. 

The characterizations of losing a step are among the most baffling I see in this space. Maybe I just have trouble seeing it, but as someone who puts in as much time and detail as I do, I'm often missing what others claim to see. Identifying players who lose a step is harder for me than identifying actionable gut feelings. 

At the same time, we've also heard players tell media in training camp things like, "Julio Jones [in practice right now] looks like the same guy who dominated defensive backs for all these years."

The Texas are promoting Diggs as a player who hasn't lost a step. Even if he has, he's far and away the best route runner on the team. Tank Dell is the most explosive but not as proven at the catch point as Diggs. Collins makes the tough plays but he's not in Diggs' class with timing routes. 

My gut tells me Diggs should be a top-20 receiver on my re-draft board. There's a moderate feeling that I should flip-flop Diggs at No.28 with No.18 Drake London or, safer yet, No.21 Zay Flowers. If you see that in my rankings, you'll know I acted on my gut feeling. 

I also have a gut feeling I'm watching...

Jayden Daniels Teasing Most of the Football Public

Daniels has a big arm and excellent foot speed -- an irresistible pair of traits that can lead people to ruin. A big arm is only valuable if the brain processes information fast enough to use it wisely, and foot speed is only helpful if the player can navigate traffic. 

My gut feeling is people are letting their desires get the best of them. 

Daniels has the promise to develop into a quality starter at some point during his career. From what I saw on film, it's unlikely he's doing it at a level better than we saw at LSU -- or preseason football, which is essentially closer to playing college football than what he's about to see in September. 

These are the scenarios where Jayden Daniels is currently leaving yards on the field.

If he can be a beat more patient as a passer, he could become even more dangerous of a player. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/jXEHol78Zg

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) January 21, 2024

Excellent run by Jayden Daniels.

Again, he had a clear opportunity to throw and get at least the same yardage.

As he develops, if you begin to see him wait a bit longer in the pocket and find that third option, LOOK OUT. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/gt2nW1J2Ck

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) January 21, 2024

One of those plays that the top throwers/anticipators at the position make in the NFL.

Jayden Daniels isn’t there yet.

If he does, he’ll be on his way toward becoming a top option. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/yXexYPLmV0

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) January 21, 2024

Sometimes, your gut makes connections that keep you out of danger, such as the lowlights of Daniels smacking into defenders like a Telsa smacking into a wall due to a software error. Daniels shares this unfortunate tendency with Commanders quarterbacks past and present -- Robert Griffin III and Marcus Mariota. 

Both had strong fantasy seasons as rookies. Neither had a good NFL career as a starter. 

The fact that Austin Ekeler called out Daniels' lack of compass as a runner this month during an interview validates the concern. It also indicates that there's only so much bandwidth a rookie quarterback can possess.

Daniels is learning the new offense, adjusting to a new town, and adjusting to new teammates. As is the case with most rookie starters, that's likely all the bandwidth he currently has.

Improvement will come with trial and error on the field and, most of all, a full offseason dedicated to his craft rather than performing to the pre-draft test to elevate his draft capital. If changing a running style is going to take time, let's not even get to processing the field and calibrating the pocket clock. 

There are respected film analysts who believe Daniels is a better processor than I think, but I know the community is split on this subject. 

Perhaps Daniels will earn enough yardage as a runner and big-play passer to meet expectations as a startable rookie in fantasy leagues. If Ekeler is firing off warning shots through the media about Daniels' potential to get hurt as a runner and his processing is a beat slow, that has my gut telling me to get out of those waters. 

If they got the RSP, they woudn't have needed a bigger boat. Be the shark. The 2016 RSP. https://t.co/MULLXOZgyi pic.twitter.com/qhQqVTNeUk

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) January 10, 2016

My gut feeling is that Daniels will have big games, but they won't translate into fantasy value unless you choose the right 4-5 weeks.

I may be hesitant on Daniels, but I have a gut feeling...

Geno Smith Will Rebound

The consensus on Smith's 2023 campaign was that opposing defenses found him out. It's possible. We often don't know how good a quarterback will be until we've seen 18-30 games from him. 

Considering that Smith the Seahawk of 2022 waited a long time to play football since his 2013 NFL debut as a Jet, my gut says we should consider 2022 as his first season as a starter and we should use 2023 as the year he got tested. Injuries to his tackles in Week 1 didn't help. 

This year will be the season we'll see if Smith can overcome the new challenges posed to him. 

We should also consider how much Pete Carroll's philosophy hindered his offensive coordinators. With Carroll gone, it's all gas for a pass-centric scheme that intends to spread the field, move key personnel around the field, and give Smith the freedom he didn't have in the past to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage. 

Another gut feeling I have is that I may be overthinking this in Smith's favor. That's the problem with some gut checks. The initial thought is often the best. Or is that a rationalization? 

You see how little confidence I truly have in this take, but we're fortunately considering Smith late enough that we don't need that certainty to make the call. 

I have more certainty in my gut about the next player. 

Tyrone Tracy Jr. Is A Training Camp False Positive

Now that we know that Tracy's air cast and carting off the Giants' practice field were precautionary and concern about a season-ending injury is a false negative. That's great for Tracy, but if my gut feeling about the camp hype for him is true, it may keep unwitting fantasy GMs in danger of making an unproductive pick. 

Tracy's camp and preseason resemble what we saw from Tank Bigsby's. Camp reports are strong on athletic ability and weak on decision-making and technical skills. 

Perhaps Tracy has made radical improvements from his college tape. It happens. Not often, but we've seen it. I prefer proof because in between displays of NFL athletic ability were issues that usually ground rookie running backs until they learn their lessons -- ask Bigsby. 

Tyrone Tracy reminds of a Bama RB who recently played in the NFL#NFLDraft2024 pic.twitter.com/fCAOjzdRNj

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) February 8, 2024

Probably best not to cutback on a gap play backed up in your own end zone. Tyrone Tracy decision making and game management. #NFLDraft2024 pic.twitter.com/Ty3mFr172o

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) February 8, 2024

You want to see Tyrone Tracy remain downhill focused after dealing with the initial penetration here. At worst, he would have lost less than bouncing this. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/5eTpTVbr1i

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) February 7, 2024

Maybe he's more Tevin Coleman short-term, but his best three seasons were as a mid-to-low fantasy RB2. Injuries mattered, but so did the decision-making he lacked. 

I feel as certain about Tracy's learning curve as Tank Bigsby's.

On the other hand, my gut tells me...

Dylan Laube's Camp Hype Is Legit

Raiders Wire reporter Levi Damien reported Wednesday that Maxx Crosby nicknamed Laube "Cheddar Bob" from the movie 8-Mile. Naming a teammate after a guy who shoots himself in the nuts may not sound like a great indication of an assignment-sound running back who produces when fed the ball, but nicknames are often ironic. 

My podcast partner, Brandon Angelo, told me this winter that he knows players who worked out with Laube. They all said that the league won't know how good Laube is but they're about to find out when he gets an extended opportunity. 

I'm taking him at the end of most 20-round drafts. 

The film is a good indication, but my gut feeling is that most of the NFL wrote off too much of the tape because he played at a small school. This bias seeps in when a process lacks detail. Many NFL scouts have great knowledge of detail. 

Fewer possess great detail in their process to keep track and then appropriately value what they see. Most are relying on the NFL teams to provide that framework. Good luck...

Speaking of luck in the opposite direction, my gut says...

Rashod Bateman's Career Arc Will Find A Way to Let Us Down

I'm trying to reverse-Bloom Bateman, an excellent talent who hasn't been able to stay healthy. I love that the Ravens committed to him this year with a three-year extension. He's a big-play weapon with contested-catch skills and excellent yards-after-the-catch prowess. 

He has the luck of a hen that wandered into a Pilgrim's Pride facility. I'm rooting for him from afar, but I can only imagine 2 or 3 games of amazing work before the gut quakes at the idea of having nice things. 

J.K. Dobbins Will Find A Way to Cheer Us Up

Bateman's injury woes go back to college football. Dobbins was healthy and a load carrier in college. Dobbins was every bit as talented as Jonathan Taylor as a prospect in the same draft class. 

My gut feeling on Dobbins for real: He had nice things in college and the NFL only teases him with the prospect of a nice career.  

Since he's a dart-throw late in drafts, I'm willing to see it to the bitter end. 

The Bemoaning of Kyle Pitts Fantasy Value Will Finally End

Okay, this isn't a gut feeling as much as it is my desire for people to shut up about him as a bust. If Atlanta gets enough from Kirk Cousins and/or Michael Penix Jr., it will happen. 

Good luck with your drafts. My 2024 Fantasy List of Lists -- Version 2.0 will be available later this month. So will the All-Gut Check Waiver-Wire Squad and Bold Predictions. 

Follow @MattWaldman