Fantasy Overview: Week 4

We are three weeks into the season, and the fantasy landscape is starting to take shape. This week I examine the quarterback position and share my thoughts on which players are safe, on the rise, and declining.

QUARTERBACK

2024 Quarterback Stats

The top quarterbacks are taking shape

The current top 3 after three games

1. Josh Allen BUF, 73.9 FP
2. Jayden Daniels WAS, 69.7 FP
3. Lamar Jackson BAL, 69.5 FP

Last year, the top 3 after three games were

1. Kirk Cousins (MIN) 76.7 FP - finished 24th in 8 gms
2. Justin Herbert LAC, 70.4 FP - finished 18th in 17 gms
3. Tua Tagovailoa MIA, 69.8 FP - finished 10th in 13 gms

What does that tell us? Injuries are always a big factor. The final top 3 from 2023 all played 17 games. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott. No quarterback in the final top 10 missed more than two games. Justin Fields finished the highest of any quarterback who missed more than two games. He played in 13 games and finished 17th. The moral of the story is to stay healthy. Derek Carr was the lowest-ranked quarterback of anyone who played 17 games. He finished 15th. Even Bryce Young, who played in 16 games, finished 23rd. In 2022 and 2021, Lamar Jackson finished 14th and 16th, respectively, despite playing in only 12 games in both seasons. This is great information, but if he can't play any given week, especially in the fantasy playoffs, what good is he?

Which quarterbacks tend to stay healthy? Games played by quarterbacks since 2020

• Jared Goff, DET 71 games
• Josh Allen, BUF 71 games
• Lamar Jackson, BAL 70 games
• Jalen Hurts, PHI 70 games
• Baker Mayfield, TB 70 games
• Derek Carr, NO 70 games
• Geno Smith, SEA 69 games
• Patrick Mahomes II, KC 69 games
• Gardner Minshew II, LV 69 games
• Jordan Love, GB 68 games
• Tua Tagovailoa, MIA 66 games
• Justin Herbert, LAC 66 games
• Russell Wilson, PIT 63 games
• Matthew Stafford, LAR 62 games
• Kirk Cousins, ATL 61 games 

If we change that to since 2021 we can include Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence. Since 2022, we can add Brock Purdy. 

Which quarterbacks are rising? 

Naturally, the first instinct is to see which ones have the most rushing yards. This includes the following starters like Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, etc. Josh Allen's rushing numbers have not been off the charts like we've seen in year's past, mostly due to a hand injury, but he's still the top-ranked quarterback. Could he get even better? If he runs more, he will most certainly be better.

Bo Nix is QB20 despite throwing for zero touchdowns. He has 107 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. If he can find the end zone through the air, his numbers will improve. Anthony Richardson may not be quarterback-ready at this stage of his career, but he has the athleticism to make plays, which is keeping his ranking in the top 20 despite 3 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. If he can solve his errant throws and turnover issues, he could move up the ranks with sheer talent alone. Daniel Jones has been known to run the ball when needed, and now he has a bonafide WR1 in Malik Nabers at his disposal, which will help his passing numbers. He could be a player on the move despite his shortcomings. Sometimes, all a quarterback needs is an elite wide receiver. Sam Darnold is an example of that. Darnold has a meager 35 rushing yards, but he is QB5 through three weeks with 8 touchdowns and over 8 yards per attempt. I'm sure Justin Jefferson is a big factor in his success. Could Jones be next to rise? It's the NFL, anything can happen. Look at Andy Dalton.

Caleb Williams has shown promise, but he is still working out the kinks of being a quality NFL quarterback. He does have 67 yards rushing and is capable of more if the opportunity presents itself. It may take Williams 4-5 more games, if not longer, to get acclimated to the speed of the NFL and the trickery that defenses throw at him. If he stays on top of his game and shows improvement over the next few games, he could find himself rising up the ranks. 

Which quarterbacks are falling?

Aaron Rodgers, NYJ is playing pretty well right now. He has 5 touchdowns with 1 interception and a 2-1 record. He is showing Jets fans that there is hope to be playing in January. Is he a good fantasy starter? That's debatable, but the numbers suggest no. He isn't going to add additional points by running the ball, and he hasn't had a 300-yard game since 2021 and only one game of 3 touchdown passes or more in that same time range. Yes, he missed all of 2023 with an Achilles injury, but what we're seeing from Rodgers isn't moving the fantasy needle. He can still finish in the top 20 if he stays healthy, but anything more than that may be an uphill climb. 

Deshaun Watson, CLE is 1-2 with Cleveland through three games, and he has yet to eclipse 200 yards passing. He does have 85 yards rushing with a rushing touchdown, which is keeping him in the top 15. His 4.75 yards per attempt (min 200 passing yards) is the lowest of any quarterback not named Bryce Young. Is this a sign of things to come that continue to befall the once dominant quarterback or will his numbers improve thanks to decent rushing totals and players returning from injury, like David Njoku? The low yards per attempt and paltry 57.8% completion percentage suggest he may stay in the doldrums. 

Matthew Stafford, LAR started strong and has faded in the last two games. Injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have affected the Rams' passing game. Stafford has not surpassed 225 yards passing since Week 1, and he has a scanty 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in three games with zero rushing yards. In order for Stafford to stay afloat in the quarterback rankings, he will need high yardage plus touchdowns, and right now those are hard to come by. He is not worth hanging onto in single quarterback leagues. 

You could argue that both Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins are also not the greatest fantasy options. Both are sitting outside the top 20 at QB26 and QB25, respectively. Neither is going to get you points on the ground and both have at least 3 interceptions with no more than 4 touchdown passes in three games. Both quarterbacks have the ability to put up a three-touchdown game any given week, but without high yardage and multiple scores per game, they are looking at a ranking no better than QB15-20.