Fantasy Overview: Week 2

Photo: Imagn Images

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season has come and gone and it's on to Week 2. It's important to take note of different storylines and situations, but it's also important not to overreact to some of these circumstances and occurrences. Let's dig deep and try to decipher some clarity as we look back at Week 1 and look ahead to Week 2. 

Chasing points is real, and it's a slippery slope. We've all done it. Player X has a huge week (on your bench), so you do what any self-respecting fantasy enthusiast would do. You start him next week, and he is a disappointment. So now you've lost out on the first week of success, and you followed it up with a dud in the second week. What do you do in the third week? We've all been there. Every single one of us. That's the downside of chasing points. The upside, of course, is racking up the points each week. How can you predict those who will have a successful outcome and those who won't? It's tricky, but there are signs, triggers, and factors. I'll get to that...

Don't worry too much about Week 1 failures

Some teams take time to right the ship, figure out their blocking schemes, find the right mix of personnel to handle an assignment, the right coaching decisions, play the right opponent, get a healthy player back, etc. Take a look at last year, for example...

• The Jets beat the Bills despite Aaron Rodgers tearing his Achilles in the opening minutes of the season. An overtime punt return for a touchdown sealed the victory for New York. The Jets lost their next three games and finished with a 7-10 record while Buffalo won their next three games and eventually circled the wagons with six wins in their last seven games en route to a two-seed in the playoffs.
• C.J. Stroud failed to throw a touchdown in his debut game. He threw at least 2 touchdown passes in four of his next five games. 
• Jahmyr Gibbs, Isiah Pacheco, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Rachaad White, and Najee Harris all had fewer than 10 fantasy points in Week 1 last year. 
• De'Von Achane was a healthy scratch in Week 1 and we saw him blossom into a winner.
• Gus Edwards scored 3 fantasy points in the first game and he went on to score 13 touchdowns. 

In reality, Week 1 is one of 18 weeks of the NFL regular season. It stands out more because it's the first game. We're all watching with bated breath trying to get clarity on situations across the league. Some performances may be a sign of things to come, but others may be an anomaly. It's a small sample size but we think we may be able to predict the future from one week. There may be something there, but then again, it may be a ruse. How do you know the difference?

There are more wide receivers on the field than players in any other position. This means more receivers have a chance to rank high, but on the other hand, more receivers also have a chance to rank lower. Don't overreact, especially when it comes to wide receivers.

Here is a list of ten factors you should consider to understand a player's fantasy value when looking ahead to the rest of the season. You can use Footballguys as a resource for this information

• Observe snap counts and snap percentages. How often were they on the field? Footballguys displays offense and defense snap count numbers every week.
• Examine the depth chart around them. Is there an opening for this player to thrive moving forward?
• What are coaches saying their players? Google Gemini can help with this - Try using this prompt - "What are coaches saying about Jameson Williams' Week 1 performance?" AI for sports is improving and if you know the right prompts, it can be super helpful. 
• Did an injury open the door for more involvement? Footballguys has you covered here, too - Injury Articles
• Was a particular matchup the main reason for their success or failure?
• Did their points come in garbage time? Will this be a commonality with his team?
• Did their production come from one or two big plays?
• How many red-zone targets did they have? Red zone targets by team
• What was their target share % compared to the rest of the team? Player targets or targets by position
• Was their fantasy production touchdown-dependent, or were they consistent throughout the game?

Sometimes it's just a feeling. Texans running back Joe Mixon started off the year with 30 carries for 159 yards, 3 receptions for 19 yards and a touchdown. It's only one game, but there are signs that it may not be a fluke. In eight seasons, Mixon has six top-15 finishes. He signed with a contending team with a quality quarterback who isn't a running threat, and this year he'll have a fullback leading the way for him for the first time in his career. Before the successful performance in Week 1, coach DeMeco Ryans said "Mixon will be a focal point of the offense, carrying a significant workload and playing a crucial role in both the running and passing game." Sometimes, you just have to read the tea leaves and listen to relevant people. 

Week 1 Injury Update

Notable Injuries:

• Jake Ferguson (DAL): Likely lateral meniscus/bone bruise, expected to miss 1-4 weeks.
• Jordan Addison (MIN): Right high ankle sprain, potential 2-3 week absence.
• Christian McCaffrey (SF): Calf, potential re-inury. Week 2 in doubt
• Jordan Love (GB): MCL sprain, possible return in Week 4 with limitations.
• Kenneth Walker (SEA): Abdomen injury, expected to play Week 2 but monitor groin/oblique history.
• David Njoku (CLE): Right high ankle, anticipated 2-3 week absence.
• Kirk Cousins (MIN): Achilles repair affecting performance, Michael Penix Jr. could see playing time.
• Puka Nacua (LA): Right knee reinjury, return to play is uncertain.

Other Injuries:

• Keenan Allen (LAC): Favored right leg, returned to game, likely minor.
• Saquon Barkley (NYG): Stinger, returned to game and did not appear to affect him.
• Jaylen Waddle (MIA): Cleared concussion screening, returned to game.
• DJ Moore (CAR): Right shoulder/AC, returned to game without issue.
• Josh Allen (BUF): Left hand confusion, unlikely to significantly impact next week.
• DeAndre Hopkins (TEN): Played but saw minimal production, expected dip in performance for 6 weeks.
• Mark Andrews (BAL): Ravens offensive scheme, not injury, led to weak production.
• Tee Higgins (CIN): Hamstring - Average return time of his severity is 2 weeks, but may miss Week 2.
• Marquise Hollywood Brown (KC): Shoulder - Expected to return in Week 2-3. Monitor practice
• Russell Wilson (PIT): Calf - likely available Week 2 but may not start.
• Roman Wilson (PIT): Ankle - trending towards playing Week 2.