Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
SBLIX Is Here, But The Hunt For Value Never Ends
I know. We're all interested in Super Bowl LIX. Can the Eagles fly past the Chiefs, or will we see a Three-Peat?
If you're here for Championship Weekend content, we have that. Just hit the Everything Season Long and DFS for the Super Bowl page to get the whole litany.
And while I'll have some Super Bowl-related notes in The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly section below, the pursuit of 2025 value is a never-ending quest. It will remain the focus this week as well.
As we've done here the last two weeks, I'll examine one player who fell short of expectations in 2024 and one who exceeded them and assess their potential values this year.
Again, finding value in drafts is your path to fantasy success. It's also an offseason-long process. So this is just the starting point. We're setting baselines. Then we'll revisit these players over the coming months to see how things are progressing as the season draws nearer, so . . .
Taking Another Chance On Richardson?
Despite another disappointing season, Colts owner Jim Irsay retained coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard for the 2025 season.
"I've been evaluating our entire operation, and I believe in Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen and our collective ability to make the improvements needed to take us to the next level in 2025," Irsay said in a statement a few hours after the Colts' overtime victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars capped an 8-9 regular season.
Indianapolis has missed the playoffs four straight seasons and has gone 10 years without winning a division title. Ballard is 62-69-1 in eight seasons as GM, while Steichen is 17-17 in two seasons as coach.
This news means one thing for fantasy investors: Second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, benched midseason only to return to the lineup two weeks later, will get another shot to prove he can be a long-term answer at the position.
It Wasn't Supposed To Be A Question
Richardson, the No. 4 draft pick in 2023 and one of the biggest (6-4 and 244 pounds) and fastest (4.43 speed in the 40) quarterbacks the NFL has seen, opened 2024 as the unquestioned starter in Indianapolis. As ESPN.com's Stephen Holder reminded readers, with Richardson's rookie season mostly lost to injury, Year 2 was expected to be about solidifying his status as a long-term franchise quarterback.
Instead, Richardson regressed as a passer in 2024.
Though he had only a small sample size as a rookie (four games), his completion percentage dropped more than 11 points from his first season (59.5 percent) to his second (an NFL-low 47.7 percent). His turnovers jumped, too, with his interception rate rising from 1.2 percent to 4.5 percent.
There also were ambiguous issues with Richardson's off-field preparation, which Ballard said contributed to his midseason two-game benching.
But the biggest issue has been avoiding injury . . .
The Best Ability Is Availability
As a rookie, Richardson missed 13 games, 12 due to a right shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery and one due to a concussion. In 2024, Richardson was sidelined for two games early in the season with an oblique injury before missing the final two weeks with back spasms.
The good news?
According to Holder, the Colts are confident the back issue will not impede Richardson long term. The spasms are believed to be related to the use of an orthotic walking boot Richardson had been wearing, which unexpectedly put stress on parts of his back.
"He's going into the offseason healthy," Ballard said.
Still, as the GM pointed out, "He's not proven he can play 17 games."
Ballard added, "That, to me, is probably the biggest question right now, because we're going on two seasons in a row where he's dealt with injuries."
But what about the intangibles?
The Benching
The Colts benched Richardson in favor of veteran Joe Flacco in Week 9. The benching came after Richardson's poor performance against the Houston Texans, including when he asked to come out of the game due to exhaustion. If you're looking for positives here, Richardson didn't pout or sulk. He got right back to work. Even harder than before.
That's the word from Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who told Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith this week that Richardson impressed his teammates by the way he reacted to getting benched.
"He responded well," Pittman said. "We didn't see him fold, we didn't see him break down, and I really do think he wants to be the best version of himself, and he's doing everything the right way to get the right result."
Better still, while it wasn't perfect, Richardson took a step in the right direction immediately upon return.
As Holder reported at the time, the second-year man was more rhythmic in his passing, more accurate with his throws, and looked more in command of the offense. He generated a career-high 272 passing yards and two passing touchdowns (tied for his career-best) against the Jets that week. Richardson also tied his career-high with two rushing TDs (10 carries, 32 rushing yards). He used his legs as a bulldozing force in the red zone.
And his accuracy was as good as we've seen (66.7 percent is by far his season best in a game with five-plus passes).
As NFL.com's Kevin Patra wrote, "There [were] still some shaky throws, but his lasers over the middle won all day. This is the type of performance the Colts envisioned in 2024."
Richardson was QB2 that week with 30.1 fantasy points.
It was emblematic of the upside we drafted him for. And, for the record, we saw it Week 1 as well. Richardson was QB5 in the opener with 26.1 points . . .
That Upside Still Exists
We saw it during Richardson's rookie season as well. He completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 577 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception over four starts to begin his career. He also picked up 136 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
For our purposes, Richardson scored 17-plus fantasy points in his first three games and posted a 27.6-point performance in Week 4.
His 22.1 point-per-game average through Week 4 ranked fourth among all fantasy QBs. Richardson had two top-5 performances in four games in 2023 and a pair last year.
So we know what's possible . . .
Where We Gain An Edge?
The difference this season will be price. Last summer, Richardson was drafted as QB6 with the 57th pick overall. I was right there, drafting the still-unproven second-year man as QB5 in the fifth round based on potential upside. I stressed at the time it was a risk, but there were ways to mitigate it.
I explained it like this: "In a vacuum, I'd be reluctant to put all my eggs in the Richardson basket. But we don't live or draft in a vacuum, and I'm willing to burn an earlier-than-I'd-like pick on a player I view as a lottery ticket. I'll do this because the list of quarterbacks I'll be able to draft in double-digit rounds includes names I'd be comfortable starting any given weekend.
"That list includes Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Baker Mayfield, among others."
Here's hoping that Mayfield, who finished the season as QB4 (more on that in coming weeks), was your choice to mitigate that risk.
Whatever the case, the good news is Richardson will be the player we're taking a shot at in the double-digit rounds this summer. As I mentioned above, the upside still exists, and the supporting cast -- Jonathan Taylor, Pittman, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce -- is appealing.
But Richardson, who will most likely be drafted as a high-end QB2 this summer, is going to be way more affordable. Targeting him in Rounds 10 to 12 seems reasonable given the potential reward . . .
A Caveat
Ballard is moving forward with the intention of signing "competition" at quarterback to push Richardson and protect the Colts if his injury issues continue.
The Athletic's James Boyd recently suggested that if the Colts are serious about adding competition for Richardson, they have to pursue stronger options, and it would be wise to target a dual-threat quarterback like Justin Fields or Daniel Jones. "The offense wouldn't need major changes if either had to step in for Richardson," Boyd explained, "and their ages (Fields is 25 and Jones is 27) could make them more than one-year stopgaps if they simply beat out Richardson for the starting job."
We'll be watching . . .
The Flip Side
While Richardson left us with questions, another quarterback put himself on the radar with a strong rookie campaign.
Nix Makes Fantasy Waves
According to ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold, when Broncos quarterback Bo Nix was asked whether his rookie season, which ended with a 31-7 loss to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC wild-card round, had been what he thought it would be, he took a moment to consider it.
"That's a great question," Nix said. "It was more than I thought it was going to be . . ."
Fantasy investors undoubtedly feel the same.
Nix was the first Broncos rookie quarterback to start a season opener since Hall of Famer John Elway in 1983. He completed 66.3 percent of his passes (376-of-567) for 3,775 yards. His 29 passing touchdowns set a franchise rookie record and were the second most by a rookie QB in NFL history, behind Justin Herbert's 31 for the Chargers in 2020.
Along the way, Nix became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to post multiple games with at least 300 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. He also holds the rookie record for the most games with 200 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and no interceptions.
That's all pretty good considering Nix was the sixth quarterback selected last April in a historic draft at the position . . .
Setting The Bar High
Nix finished the season as fantasy's QB8 with an average of 18.6 points per game after delivering QB1 finishes nine times.
He finished inside the top 10 on five occasions and inside the top 5 three times. That included a pair of QB2 finishes, including an impressive Week 18 performance that saw him rack up 33.5 fantasy points.
If I argue that Richardson brings elite upside, I must acknowledge that Nix does the same. He's also already done it with more consistency and without missed time due to injuries or benchings.
In fact, Nix suffered a transverse process fracture in his back in Week 12 and played through the injury . . .
Upward Trajectory
It's no surprise head coach Sean Payton and the Broncos view Nix as the long-term solution for a franchise that has largely struggled at the position since Hall of Famer Peyton Manning retired after the 2015 season. In fact, Nix was the first quarterback to lead the Broncos to the playoffs since Manning in 2015.
"His resume speaks for itself," Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton said. "All he's done is gotten better."
That's the key here -- the late-season improvement.
Nix threw two interceptions in each of his first two starts and didn't throw a touchdown pass until a Week 4 win over the New York Jets. The Broncos completed only two passes of more than 30 yards in the first five weeks, and one of those came on a trick play. And despite a reliance on short, low-risk passes in the early going, Legwold notes that Nix didn't show the accuracy he was known for at Oregon, where he set an NCAA record by completing 77.4 percent of his passes in 2023. He was 27th in the NFL in completion percentage at 62.6 percent after his first nine games.
But those struggles allowed Nix to showcase his ability to move on and dig in to make repairs.
Payton increasingly used play-action to create more opportunities for Nix to succeed. According to Legwold, Denver sparingly used it initially, ranking 25th in the first six weeks of the season (20.4 percent). But the Broncos surged to fourth in play-action from Week 7 on (31.4 percent) and finished ninth in the league for the season (27.6 percent).
"As coaches, your job is to look at what you're doing and consider what's best and what puts players in the best position [to succeed]," Payton said. "You're always doing that."
That's why Payton became more open to having Nix run.
The coach has admitted that Nix is a better runner than he expected, and he used him sporadically on called runs. Nix finished as the team's third-leading rusher (430 yards) and tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns (four). Nix was also tough for opponents to sack. The rookie was sacked 24 times, less than half of the 52 combined sacks Russell Wilson and Jarrett Stidham endured the season before.
The adjustments helped Nix throw 21 of his touchdown passes after Week 10, which tied the Bengals' Joe Burrow for third-most in the NFL. And both of Nix's 300-yard, four-touchdown games -- in Week 11 against Atlanta and the playoff clincher against the Chiefs in the season finale -- came after the schematic tweaks.
How High Will The Price Rise?
That strong finish will be what investors remember in drafts this summer. Nix will undoubtedly be drafted higher than QB25. That 14th-round price tag paid off for those who took a chance last year.
But Nix is currently QB13 on FantasyPros' initial 2025 Draft Rankings (one spot ahead of Richardson). If that price holds, I'll be more than willing to spend at that level . . .
This And That
The Chase Is On . . . Can The Bengals Catch Higgins, Too?
As Profootballtalk.com suggested last week, Ja'Marr Chase's astonishing 2024 season couldn't have come at a better time.
The Bengals' star wide receiver led the league in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708), and receiving touchdowns (17) this season, becoming just the sixth wideout in the Super Bowl era to achieve the receiving triple crown.
Those statistics will be a driving force in negotiations, and the 24-year-old is looking to earn "what's fair" as he enters the final year of his rookie contract.
"At the end of the day, I just hope I get what's fair," Chase said. "Hopefully, I don't put too much pressure on anybody, but I just want it to be fair, that's all."
Chase, who led all wide receivers with 403 fantasy points in 2024, doesn't really need to put the pressure on. The Bengals know what they're up against. Chase is going to be the highest-paid receiver in the NFL.
The only question is when?
The answer is the sooner, the better.
Besides the fact that he's not going to get any cheaper over time, a quick resolution to Chase's deal would give the Bengals some much-needed flexibility.
Tee Higgins played out the year on the franchise tag, so both wideouts are heading into this offseason facing the same questions.
Director of player personnel Duke Tobin said from the Senior Bowl last Wednesday that "it's going to be hard" to find agreements "that make sense for everybody." Tobin acknowledged that getting Chase's deal done is a priority, and he also discussed defensive end Trey Hendrickson earning a pay raise, which may leave Higgins as the odd man out.
Still, quarterback Joe Burrow said the Bengals can do what it takes to get all his teammates signed and that the players want to stay in Cincinnati.
"We can make it happen," Burrow said. "We can make it happen. And it just has to be right for everybody involved. I know the players want to make it work. We all want to be together. So I don't see it not working out, but we'll see."
Higgins missed five games with injuries in 2024 and finished the year with 73 catches for 911 yards and a career-high 10 touchdowns.
While there's clearly something to be said for working opposite a threat like Chase, there are plenty of needy teams out there, with the Patriots and Commanders often mentioned as possibilities.
If Higgins lands in New England, we could expect a significant target share increase, boosting his WR2 floor with WR1 upside . . .
What's Next For Kupp?
Wide receiver Cooper Kupp was informed by the Rams that "the team will be seeking a trade immediately," he announced in a statement posted on his social media accounts Monday. The receiver said the team will be working with him and his family to "find the right place to continue competing for championships" and that he is "highly motivated" and healthy as ever as he prepares to head into next season.
Kupp isn't happy about it.
"I don't agree with the decision and always believed it was going to begin and end in LA," he said.
As ESPN.com's Sarah Barshop noted, after a record-breaking 2021 season that saw him lead the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, Kupp signed a three-year contract extension worth $80.1 million.
Now, with the former All-Pro coming off a campaign in which he caught 67 passes for 710 yards and six touchdowns in 12 games, the Rams have reassessed. It was the third straight season that Kupp, who will turn 32 in June, missed time due to injury, with 18 total games lost since 2022.
Nonetheless, Kupp totaled over 700 receiving yards and at least five TD catches in each of the past three seasons.
His contract will no doubt play a factor in any prospective trade, but it's reasonable to believe somebody will take a chance on Kupp. Based on initial reporting and associated speculation, there are several intriguing possible landing spots for the veteran heading into the 2025 NFL season.
DraftKings has posted odds for Kupp's next destinations. The co-favorites are the Steelers and Bengals, at +500 each. Next, at +600, are four teams: the Broncos, Commanders, Patriots, and Chargers.
Footballguy Matt Waldman included the Commanders on his list but also pointed to Tampa Bay, where Kupp could replace Chris Godwin if the latter moves on as a free agent; Chicago if Keenan Allen doesn't return; the New York Jets if Aaron Rodgers returns; the Panthers if Adam Thielen retires; and finally, the Bengals if Higgins isn't franchised.
Want another?
Our colleague Jeff Bell chimed in with Detroit, where former Rams personnel man and current Lions GM Brad Holmes could reunite Kupp with Goff as the team's WR3.
Meanwhile, my pal Theo Gremminger from PlayerProfiler, offered up an angle on this that some of us have missed:
Tired: Cooper Kupp is getting traded. Which team will he land on?
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) February 4, 2025
Wired: The Rams WR2 spot is now open.
If LA adds a strong prospect at WR (or even TE) that player has a clear path to a fantasy viable target share & advantageous coverage opposite Puka Nacua.
In McVay we trust
It's a fair point . . .
Kissing Cousins Goodbye?
As ESPN.com's Marc Raimondi understated, "Kirk Cousins' first season with the Atlanta Falcons did not go as planned for either party."
Given the outcome, it was unsurprising to see the veteran quarterback shedding some light on why things went sideways for him in 2024. Cousins said Tuesday on NFL Network's "Good Morning Football" that he took a hit during the team's Week 10 game against the New Orleans Saints and hurt his right shoulder and elbow. Previously, he and the team had maintained that he was healthy.
The Falcons lost that game, which started a four-game losing streak that sent them from 6-3 to 6-7.
Cousins was benched in favor of rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in Week 16 after a stretch with nine interceptions and just one touchdown pass over five games.
Not surprisingly, after that late-season benching in Atlanta, Cousins' future with the Falcons is uncertain.
The first order of business is getting healthy for Cousins, who believes the lingering effects from the 2023 injury and the additional knocks in '24 contributed to his subpar performance.
"If we can do that," he said. "[I] feel like I got a new life ahead of me in pro football."
Does that new life include serving as Penix's backup? Or can Cousins find a starting job elsewhere in the coming weeks?
Money is a factor. But even though his contract complicates matters, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported in December that Cousins' release is the most likely outcome.
The list of teams who might come knocking if that happens includes Tennessee and Cleveland . . .
Jameis Ready To Bite The Big Apple
When Jameis Winston, who was asking questions for FOX during Super Bowl media day on Monday, asked Saquon Barkley which team would sign him in free agency, Barkley threw a jab at the Giants, whose refusal to re-sign the star running back led to the rival Eagles.
"I think New York needs a quarterback right now," Barkley said.
"I'm a free agent; I don't really get no job," Winston shot back.
The Giants, who don't have a quarterback on the roster, obviously need a new signal caller. And while they'll probably look to take one with the No. 3 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, Winston, who threw for 2,121 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in Cleveland, sounds more than willing.
He could be a decent bridge capable of fueling young superstar Malik Nabers fantasy fire . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly: SBLIX Edition
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I encapsulate that broad expanse here. This week, we'll limit it to Super Bowl-related items and remind you individual success in the Championship game can influence early ADP trends.
The Good
Tom Brady is easily the greatest postseason quarterback in NFL history. However, as Smith noted this week, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes II has put himself into a position where he could be the clear No. 2 with a win over the Eagles on Super Bowl Sunday.
The Chiefs have won 17 postseason games with Mahomes as their starting quarterback allowing him to surpass Joe Montana, who won 16 postseason games, for the second-most wins by a playoff starting quarterback in NFL history. Brady has the record, with 35 postseason wins.
Mahomes will start his fifth Super Bowl on Sunday, tied with John Elway for the second-most ever. Brady started 10 Super Bowls.
Mahomes can win his fourth Super Bowl on Sunday, which would move him into a tie with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana for the second-most ever. Brady won seven Super Bowls.
Mahomes has won three Super Bowl MVPs, tied with Montana for the second-most ever. If he wins his fourth on Sunday, he'll be one behind Brady, who won five Super Bowl MVPs.
Mahomes has thrown for 43 touchdown passes in the playoffs, the fifth-most all-time. If he throws three more, he'll surpass Joe Montana and Aaron Rodgers, who are tied for second with 45. Brady has the record with 88.
Mahomes has 5,557 passing yards in the playoffs, good for No. 7 all-time, and he has a chance of moving ahead of Montana (5,772), Brett Favre (5,855), and Rodgers (5,894) and into fourth place all-time on Super Bowl Sunday.
Smith added Brady's record of 13,400 career postseason passing yards is safe for many years.
Mahomes has 490 completions in the postseason, which is No. 5 all-time. At Super Bowl LIX, he'll likely move ahead of Ben Roethlisberger (498) and Rodgers (501) into third place all time. Brady's record is 1,200 playoff completions.
That's good. Also good?
Barkley is poised to complete the most productive season for a running back in NFL history on Super Bowl Sunday. Between his 16 regular-season games and three playoff games, Barkley has 2,447 rushing yards this season. That's the second-most in NFL history.
The record is owned by Broncos Hall of Fame running back Terrell Davis, who ran for 2,476 yards in the 1998 regular season and postseason. So Barkley needs 30 rushing yards in Super Bowl LIX to break Davis' record. Considering that Barkley's lowest output of the season was 47 rushing yards, it's safe to say he will break Davis' record against the Chiefs.
Barkley is even closer to breaking Davis' record for yards from scrimmage in a season: Davis had 2,762 combined rushing and receiving yards in 1998, while Barkley currently has 2,760 yards. Barkley needs just three yards to break that record, so he'll likely break it the first time he touches the ball on Sunday.
Davis capped his 1998 season by winning the Super Bowl.
As Smith put it, "If that's what Barkley does on Sunday, he'll have what may be the greatest season any running back has ever had."
And yes, great is even better than good.
But fantasy investors need to realize it's also likely to impose draft-day premiums for both Barkley and Mahomes this summer . . .
The Bad
With social media feeds rife with conspiracy theories that the NFL is using referees to rig games for the Kansas City Chiefs, it wasn't a huge surprise to see the issue come up at Super Bowl Media Day.
TikTok "personality" Rich Sherternlieb somehow got Super Bowl Media Day credentials and asked Patrick Mahomes II who his favorite referee was.
Do they not understand that they’re just adding fuel to the fire pic.twitter.com/rNAct5b9gU
— Rasheebeers (@RasheeClears) February 4, 2025
He also asked Travis Kelce a ridiculous question, as well.
The same reporter that asked Patrick Mahomes II “Who is your favorite ref?” Just asked Travis Kelce this… ? pic.twitter.com/RvNdzUeTDN
— kcchiefssuck (@kcchiefssuck) February 4, 2025
A child reporter then asked Travis Kelce what he'd ask the media:
Travis Kelce on if he could ask the media one question:
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) February 4, 2025
"Why are you guys leaning into this whole ref thing?" pic.twitter.com/pLF8qf5AR6
Even though we all know why, Kelce's might have been the best question of them all . . .
The Ugly
My prediction for Sunday's game: Eagles 24, Chiefs 21.
No Three-Peat. No rigged outcome. No refs favoring anybody. No nonsense.
Unless I'm wrong. Then it's gonna get ugly . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Even though the 2024 regular season is over, we're still grinding away here at Footballguys. As noted above, those playing in DFS tournaments and postseason fantasy contests will find everything you need on our Everything Season Long and DFS for the Super Bowl LIX page. You'll also find our Super Bowl Rankings and Projections available.
Of course, we'll be here all offseason, helping you gain an edge on your leaguemates. Check back often to take advantage of our ongoing content.
Definitely come back next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can listen to Harris on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.