Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
The Hunt For Value Never Ends
As I explained in last week's Fantasy Notebook, a key aspect of "the offseason" in fantasy football is identifying players who fell short of our draft-day expectations and then putting some time in to assess their chances of rebounding in 2025. The same holds true for those who delivered above and beyond the draft capital invested.
The goal for both groups is the same: Assessing their chances of exceeding or falling short of expectations this year as part of our search for value.
That last word is key.
Finding value in drafts is your path to fantasy success. And this is a great time to start that process.
But make no mistake. This is just the first step in what will be an off-season-long effort.
I'll be here to help you set the baseline with prime examples and initial assessments of outlooks heading into 2025. In case you missed it, I started last week with Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry (you can read them here). We'll do it again this week, starting with . . .
Still King Of The Hill?
The Miami Dolphins have not won a playoff game since 2000 and came no closer to breaking that drought this season.
As ESPN.com's Marcel Louis-Jacques reminded readers last week, the Dolphins worked hard to add talent to their roster heading into 2024. Still, they opened the season with a 2-6 record before finishing 8-9. After falling just short of the playoffs, the team has some critical decisions this offseason, starting with wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
The veteran wideout made it clear last offseason that as the receiver market continues to skyrocket, he expects to be paid accordingly based on his performance.
No player had more receiving yards in 2022 and 2023 than Hill's 3,509. He didn't necessarily need to be the league's highest-paid wide receiver, but he had fallen out of the top five at the position. The Dolphins rectified that by adding more fully guaranteed money onto his existing extension than any other receiver in NFL history.
But 2024 was not kind to Hill.
After leading the league with 1,799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns while hauling in 119 catches to tie his career high a season prior, Hill managed 81 catches for 959 yards, snapping a three-year streak of amassing 100-plus catches and four-year run of totaling 1,000-plus yards.
His six touchdowns tied a career low, and his 11.8 yards per reception was lower than only 2021 and his contribution as a rookie.
It was Hill's worst season in a Dolphins uniform.
It wasn't great for Miami. It was arguably worse for fantasy investors who selected Hill early in the first round of their 2024 drafts.
Drafted to be a prime-time player, Hill instead was a frustration, finishing as WR18 with 12.2 points per game while being held to single-digit scoring seven times . . .
What Happened Here?
Health was an issue. Hill dealt with a wrist injury that necessitated consideration of surgery, something he passed on, and he never looked fully in sync on anything other than underneath routes with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who missed Weeks 3-7 with a concussion and the team's final two games due to a hip injury.
But also, Hill took regular rest days this year.
After their Week 16 loss to the 49ers, Hill suggested those veteran rest days might have been an issue. "I need those valuable reps with Tua," Tyreek said. "Those vet rest days are starting to show."
If it seems like a reach to believe extra days off were a problem for a player with his experience, Hill disagrees.
"You just can't show up on Sunday," Hill said. "You gotta be able to prepare yourself."
But there was more here . . .
Tua Down!
With Tagovailoa missing six games due to injury, we have to acknowledge the Dolphins' plan at backup quarterback exacerbated the issue.
Skylar Thompson won the job in training camp, beating out veteran Mike White. But he played poorly in his lone start against the Seattle Seahawks before leaving the game because of an injury. Tyler Huntley, whom Miami signed from the Baltimore Ravens' practice squad after Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in Week 2, started five games but was largely ineffective, save his performance in a Week 17 win over the Browns.
An entire season with Tagovailoa under center might be reason enough to expect a rebound, but there are other concerns . . .
Slowdown?
In 2023, Hill hit four of the fastest speeds in the NFL, as recorded by Next Gen Stats. That included 22.01 mph in Week 3, the third-fastest speed in the season.
In 2024, Hill reached a maximum speed of 20.27 mph in Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. That doesn't put him in the top 20 on the season. That's a massive shift.
As Rotoballer.com suggested, "Failing to run even 21 mph is a big red flag."
Even if his wrist, the rest days, and Tua's absences were issues, it's fair to wonder if Hill's speed, the thing that's made him one of the most dangerous players in the NFL, has diminished to the point he's no longer the player he once was.
Rotoballer added: "Even players who have run 40-yard dashes in the 4.5-4.6 range are often able to exceed 21 mph. So it's incredibly alarming to see [Hill] fail to reach this threshold.
"All NFL careers have to end at some point."
Even if that end isn't imminent, Hill's standing with the Dolphins is worth considering . . .
Does He Want To Remain In Miami?
Hill wasn't happy as the season wound down. Things got so bad that he removed himself from the Week 18 loss to the Jets after it became clear the Broncos would beat the Chiefs and lock Miami out of the playoffs.
Wow. The moment when Tyreek Hill quit in Sunday’s season finale at the Jets.
— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) January 9, 2025
The Fox broadcast captured a stunned Jaylen Waddle asking him if he’s done. pic.twitter.com/nWyqSiGioG
After the game, he told reporters, "I'm out," and hinted at wanting to play football elsewhere.
Hill's comments were taken with a grain of salt, his teammates said, considering the emotion of the moment. However, his decision to leave the game irked both teammates and staff, although head coach Mike McDaniel didn't publicly scold the three-time team captain.
"I was very direct with him. He was very honest, and it was great terms that we were discussing," McDaniel said of his exit interview with Hill. "Discussed multiple things, including, without wavering, that it's not acceptable to leave a game and won't be tolerated in the future, and he embraced accountability.
"I wouldn't say there's anything necessarily to fix as much as we had to clear the air in a rough and tumultuous situation."
Is A Move Possible?
As Louis-Jacques explained, trading or releasing Hill before June 1 would result in a $28.3 million or $56.9 million dead cap hit, respectively.
However, trading him after June 1 would result in a $12.7 million dead cap hit in 2025 and a $15.6 million dead cap hit in 2026; it would save Miami $15.9 million in 2025. Louis-Jacques believes a post-June 1 trade makes the most sense if Miami decides to trade him -- but the team almost certainly would not get the same type of return it paid for him in 2022: a first-round pick, a second-round pick, two fourth-round picks, and a sixth-round pick.
Whatever the case, after Hill produced his first sub-1,000-yard season since 2019, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler suggests an interested team might be able to get a deal done with a package including a Day 2 pick.
How Should We Proceed?
With caution. Hill will enter the season at 31, so there's some age-related risk here. His failure to hit the high-end speeds last season that we've seen in the past is a concern. And Tua's concussion history further ratchets up the risk level.
Other concerns include a shift in Miami's offensive approach that saw them relying more heavily on De'Von Achane and the rushing attack in 2024. In addition, tight end Jonnu Smith emerged as a dangerous chess piece McDaniel increasingly leaned into as the season wore on.
But here's what I want to remind you: Every player at the right price.
So, we'll want to make adjustments. We must acknowledge the possibility Hill is slowing down. We need to account for a shifting role in this offense and the possibility he'll be in a different offense should the Dolphins move on.
But it's also worth remembering he's just a year removed from league-winning production.
The Right Move?
Whether you're using a Hero RB or WR Heavy approach, landing Hill in Round 3 as either a WR2 or WR3 gives you plenty of latitude to mitigate the risk (both before and after the selection) . . .
The Flip Side
For every player who falls short, there are players who exceed expectations or outperform their Average Draft Position.
Is Hubbard A One-Year Wonder?
Dave Canales made his intentions clear when becoming Carolina Panthers head coach last year. He wanted to be stubborn running the football and establish an identity of physical aggressiveness from the outset.
This wasn't easy, considering the Panthers often played from behind over the first half of 2024.
Still, with second-round rookie Jonathon Brooks slower to recover from his 2023 ACL tear than expected, Canales gradually leaned on Chuba Hubbard more as the season went on.
Hubbard proved to be a perfect fit for the Canales offense.
As Charlotte Observer reporter Mike Kaye told me during the season, coaches loved Hubbard's "violent" running style. But the 25-year-old's ability to burst through defenses and accelerate quickly shouldn't be overlooked. During a successful junior track career in Canada, Hubbard was clocked at 10.55 seconds in the 100 meters.
As momentum built, Hubbard's confidence increased.
Once Canales decided to make the fourth-year back a genuine focal point, it didn't take long for results to follow.
Hubbard set career-highs in rushing attempts (250), rushing yards (1,195), rushing touchdowns (10), and receptions (43) while recording 171 receiving yards and an additional touchdown in his 15 starts. That was sufficient for an RB13 finish with an average of 16.5 fantasy points per game.
That meant Hubbard paid huge dividends for fantasy investors who landed him in as RB42 in drafts heading into 2024. That 10th-round price tag made him a league-winner for many managers . . .
Well-Positioned For More
Hubbard went from a poor rookie campaign to a core foundational piece for the future. Canales lauded the former fourth-round pick for his emerging leadership and tone-setting work ethic throughout the offseason. When he got the necessary workload, the Oklahoma State product thrived.
This left general manager Dan Morgan convinced enough in Hubbard to give him a four-year extension -- a decision that looked even better when Brooks suffered another torn ACL that is expected to keep him out until 2026. Canales got more out of the backfield threat than most anticipated, and things could look even better this season with schematic stability.
Veteran Miles Sanders looks like a prime salary-cap cut candidate with one year remaining on his deal and around $5 million in savings attached. Beyond that, Raheem Blackshear is a decent kick returner but nothing more. Mike Boone is a work in progress and faces a fight to stay in the team's plans.
That's not the case with Hubbard, who's going to be relied on heavily in 2025 and beyond after committing his future to Carolina . . .
Will The Price Be Right?
Footballguy Dave Kluge, who has Hubbard at RB15 in his (Way Too Early) 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings, wrote: "Expect Hubbard to pick up right where he left off in 2025 as a high-end RB2 in a workhorse role."
If Kluge's valuation holds -- and I think it should, Hubbard going anywhere between early in the third through early in the fourth rounds seems plenty fair and leaves plenty of wiggle room for investors worried about Hubbard's ability to duplicate last year's numbers to mitigate their perceived risk . . .
This And That: Quarterback Edition
Quarterback is the most important position in the NFL. Unfortunately for all of us, there aren't as many high-end signal callers as there are teams. Adding to the intrigue, this year's NFL Draft class isn't as loaded at the position as last year's, which means the annual game of musical chairs for teams looking to open 2025 with a capable hand at the helm.
Let's look at some of the more interesting situations heading into the offseason . . .
One Or The Other
In Pittsburgh, Steelers owner and president Art Rooney II said securing a quarterback is the team's priority, and it's his "preference" to sign either Justin Fields or Russell Wilson this offseason.
Rooney said it's "unlikely" the team will bring back both quarterbacks.
"I wouldn't close the door, but I'd say it's probably unlikely," Rooney said Monday. "They're both capable quarterbacks, and my preference would be to sign one of them."
As ESPN.com's Brooke Pryor noted, Wilson signed a one-year deal with the Steelers last offseason, while Fields played out the final year of his rookie contract after being traded to the organization from the Bears just a week after Wilson signed.
With Wilson sidelined for the first six games with a lingering training camp calf injury, Fields helped the Steelers to a 4-2 start. Wilson reclaimed the starting spot in Week 7 and won six of his first seven starts before dropping the season's final five games, including a 28-14 wild-card loss to the Ravens.
Wilson expressed a desire to return to Pittsburgh during his appearance on "The Pat McAfee Show" on Jan. 22.
Nonetheless, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette staffer Gerry Dulac believes "in all likelihood" Fields will be the team's starting QB in 2025. Dulac cited Fields' relative youth and the success he enjoyed during his six games as the starter to back his view.
On the flip side, Dulac also points out that Wilson "was brought here to end the playoff victory drought, and it didn't happen," and a reason to move on from the 36-year-old vet.
There's a lot to play out in the coming weeks, but the Steelers' re-upping with Fields this offseason rather than overspending on an underwhelming QB market makes sense for both sides.
Meanwhile, Wilson might be of interest as a stop-gap quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders, according to multiple reports, with some suggesting the QB and new head coach Pete Carroll have "mended fences" from their time together with the Seattle Seahawks . . .
Quick Decision Coming In New York?
The Jets have a new coach, a new general manager, and a new approach to star quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
As ESPN.com's Rich Cimini reported, Aaron Glenn, introduced Monday in a news conference with general manager Darren Mougey, was noncommittal on Rodgers, saying the future Hall of Famer will be evaluated just like everyone else on the roster.
"This thing is not about Rodgers, folks. This is about the roster," Glenn told reporters. "Everybody's under the microscope. That's just what it is."
Rodgers, 41, missed virtually the entire 2023 season with a torn Achilles and was uneven in 17 starts in 2024, finishing with 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on a 5-12 team. He has said he's undecided on whether he wants to keep playing. The former Packer is under contract for 2025, but none of his money is guaranteed. He has a $35 million option bonus, a $2.5 million salary, and a manageable $23.5 million cap charge. There's a $49 million cap hit if he's released or retires; it can be spread over two years.
If he returns under his existing contract, there will be a $63 million cap hit in 2026 -- a massive charge that would hamper the team's financial flexibility. Rodgers has said he's open to a pay cut if he returns.
A fresh start might be best for everyone, and if Rodgers still wants to play, he'll likely find at least some interest from a few teams who could use a short-term bridge.
Whatever the case, Glenn told reporters he had exchanged texts with Rodgers and that he hoped to speak with him soon.
Other than that, the newly-hired coach declined to get into much detail about Rodgers. "We're still in the evaluation mode, so for anybody else who's going to ask that, I'm going to give you the same answer," Glenn said. "So don't waste your time. We clear?"
Still, Jay Glazer of FOX Sports gained additional insight into the potential timing for a resolution. Glazer spoke directly to Glenn. On the Commanders-Eagles pregame show this past Sunday, Glazer shared the following after his conversation with the new coach: "He said, 'I plan to go meet with Rodgers, and we'll definitely come up with a decision much sooner than later. I don't wanna drag this out.'"
Based on recent history, a quick resolution of anything to do with Rodgers would be a welcome change of pace . . .
Plenty Of Questions In Minnesota
After going through the best season of his career with the Vikings, quarterback Sam Darnold is set to become a free agent in March.
But with two poor performances to end the year against the Lions and Rams, it's an open question whether Darnold will be back with Minnesota this season -- or if the organization even would like to have him after drafting J.J. McCarthy at No. 10 overall last spring.
As expected, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did not provide definitive answers during his season-ending press conference.
But he did praise Darnold for what he did overall in 2024.
"We got to see Sam play some incredible football for us," Adofo-Mensah said. "Won a lot of big games -- at Seattle, at Lambeau. The production he was able to do, we're talking about games where he won games for us. There were a lot of games where he was a 'win because of' type player. And you also have to net that with all of [it] in totality."
Adofo-Mensah added that there was a belief in the building even before the season that Darnold could play at a high level, even before it became clear that Darnold would be the starter throughout 2024 because of McCarthy's season-ending injury. But Adofo-Mensah did not say how Darnold's play may have changed the team's plans at quarterback -- if at all.
Even without going through practices, the team will have some sense about whether McCarthy will be ready for the fall.
While McCarthy did not play past the first preseason game, he was in the building all season and learned plenty, with Adofo-Mensah calling it "a great mental year."
Does that mean the Vikings would be comfortable heading into the 2025 season with him as the starter?
"I can't sit here and tell you I know anything for certain," Adofo-Mensah said. "I know that I'm willing to believe in the person that we have. That position is about talent and preparation - and he's got those things in spades. So, if that's the course of action we decide, we'll go in there confidently."
Daniel Jones could also factor into the equation at quarterback, though Adofo-Mensah noted that Jones also has to decide if Minnesota's building is right for him for the future . . .
Time To Kiss Cousins Goodbye?
As NFL.com's Nick Shook noted, we all know what happened to Kirk Cousins' once-lofty dreams of success in Atlanta. His run as Atlanta's starter ended when his performance no longer met the minimum standard for a starting quarterback on a team making a late-season playoff push.
Rookie Michael Penix Jr. played well enough in his place to make it clear to every onlooker that it is time to proceed with the youngster and find a way out of Cousins' deal.
While the Falcons have said they'd be fine keeping Cousins as a backup, his $40 million cap number for 2025 is a hefty cost for a veteran insurance option. Atlanta can save $27.5 million against the cap by trading Cousins in a post-June 1 move, which is the only realistic path to recouping some of their investment, at least in terms of cap space.
Shook added, "A few other QB-needy teams might be interested, starting with the club coached by his former offensive coordinator in Minnesota, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski."
Prepare For The Churn And Watch For Value
In addition to the Browns, Steelers, Jets, and Raiders, other teams that could join the QB version of this year's musical chairs are the Titans, Giants, and Colts.
With the outcomes for numerous front-line fantasy prospects -- Justin Jefferson, Brock Bowers, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku, George Pickens, Malik Nabers, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs, to name a few -- involved, the outcomes of all these situations will be something we watch closely in coming weeks . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. Championship Weekend was no exception. Let's encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
Saquon Barkley totaled 118 yards and three touchdowns on 15 carries in the Eagles' NFC Championship Game win over the Commanders. With Barkley running in three, Philadelphia's seven rushing touchdowns in the game tied for most in a playoff game ever with the 1940 Chicago Bears in a 73-0 win over Washington . . .
The Bad
Josh Allen found himself in a familiar position after Sunday's AFC Championship game.
The Bills quarterback dropped to 0-4 in his playoff career against Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs as his hopes of reaching the Super Bowl have once again come up just short with a 32-29 defeat at Arrowhead Stadium.
In particular, as NFL.com framed it, "The Chiefs bullied the bully in short yardage."
One of Buffalo's most successful plays this season had been their QB sneak with Allen and a running back or receiver pushing him forward. Before Sunday, the Bills were 20 for 21 on short-yardage QB sneaks.
Sunday, they were just 2 of 5.
According to Next Gen Stats, the three stops were the most run-stuffs by a defense against QB sneaks in a game since 2016.
"They got big guys in there and played it well," Allen said.
Allen put together a strong performance in the losing effort. He completed 22 of his 34 pass attempts for 237 yards and two touchdowns with zero turnovers while adding 39 yards rushing.
But it was the yards he didn't get that mattered most . . .
The Ugly
With the previously-mentioned seven, the Eagles scored more rushing touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game than the Cowboys scored in the entire 2024 regular season (6).
Great for the Eagles, but an ugly reminder of how much work Dallas has to do to become fantasy-relevant. . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Even though the 2024 regular season is over, we're still grinding away here at Footballguys. We know many of you continue participating in postseason fantasy contests, and we'll have plenty of Super Bowl LIX content before the Feb. 9 championship game.
Of course, we'll be here all offseason, helping you gain an edge on your leaguemates; check back often to take advantage of our ongoing content.
And come back next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can listen to Harris on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.