Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
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Rebound Or Nah?
Even in the most successful fantasy football seasons, there are disappointments. How we overcome those setbacks often determines our outcomes. For those who managed to navigate adversity and achieve success despite the challenges, congratulations.
For those who weren't able to solve the problems presented by a huge bust -- or perhaps even multiple letdowns, I've been there. I feel your pain.
I also have a way to move forward after down seasons. Also, after successful seasons. In fact, after every season.
One of my favorite postseason rituals is reviewing the busts, disasters, disappointments, and follies that are part of every fantasy campaign. Some are self-imposed errors. Some are due to player injuries. Some are as simple as underperforming assets. Most often, it's a combination of circumstances that conspire to hold players back.
Identifying the issues and assessing the possibility of a rebound is essential. It's how we find value in drafts. So, I will take the next few weeks to look at some players that fell short of expectations and offer an initial assessment of their outlooks heading into 2025. We'll get the ball rolling at the top of the list . . .
The CMC Conundrum
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It wasn't hard to argue that 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey should be the first pick overall in fantasy drafts last year.
In hindsight, it should have been harder.
No, not because he scored 21 total touchdowns in 2023 on his way to Offensive Player of the Year honors.
Instead, the volume McCaffrey enjoyed since his arrival in San Francisco locked him into the conversation for the first pick overall, regardless of format.
He had 272 carries in 16 games in 2023, tied for second-most in the NFL. His 17 carries per game ranked fourth in the league. Add in 67 catches, and he got 339 turns to rack up fantasy points that season. He made the most of his opportunities.
McCaffrey averaged 24.7 fantasy points per game, well ahead of the pack.
He scored at least 25 points five times, more than 30 points three times, and more than 40 points twice.
Similar usage after he was dealt to San Francisco in 2022 allowed him to average 21.7 points per game as a Niner, including five games with at least 25 points.
But there were -- or at least should have been -- concerns here . . .
The Issues Were Obvious
Most everybody knows what happened. Those who burned that first pick overall to secure McCaffrey's services certainly know.
First, it was bilateral Achilles tendinitis. Then, he suffered a posterior cruciate ligament injury.
McCaffrey practiced little and played less this season, seeing action in four games with 65 touches. He ended his eighth season with 348 yards from scrimmage and no touchdowns while setting career lows in rushing attempts, rushing yards, touches, yards from scrimmage, and touchdowns.
Sure, we got a glimpse of the guy we drafted.
McCaffrey's much-anticipated return to the 49ers lineup might not have dazzled on the stat sheet, but his presence was undeniably impactful in a 23-20 victory against Tampa Bay.
In that Week 10 return, McCaffrey played 54 of 61 offensive snaps, contributing both on the ground and through the air. He transformed the offense, opening lanes and opportunities that stats can't capture.
McCaffrey's six receptions for 68 yards demonstrated his versatile skill set and ability to keep defenses guessing. 49ers' quarterback Brock Purdy couldn't hide his appreciation, noting that having McCaffrey back invited a whole new dimension to the team's plays. "Defenses have to scheme that up; they have to acknowledge him," Purdy explained, sharing how McCaffrey's presence offers teammates more opportunities to shine.
The numbers also tell part of the story -- San Francisco amassed 413 total yards and averaged 6.8 yards per play, overshadowing Tampa Bay's 215 yards.
Business NewsWire said, "The impact wasn't just statistical; it was atmospheric. McCaffrey's gritty and fearless play motivated his team, igniting a fire in the huddle that could be felt all the way to the stands."
But it was short-lived, and . . .
Predictable?
As I wrote at the time, we had ample reason to be skeptical heading into the season.
Immediately after McCaffrey drew a questionable designation on Saturday before the team's Week 1 Monday night game against the Jets, SI.com's Grant Cohn asked all the right questions.
And he made all the right points.
Specifically, Cohn reminded us the Achilles issue dated back to Week 17 of the 2023 season. McCaffrey left that game against the Commanders in the third quarter and did not return. He took the following two weeks off as the 49ers rested their starters in Week 18 and had a bye week in the first round of the playoffs.
And even after all that rest, Cohn contends McCaffrey wasn't quite himself in the playoffs when he averaged just 4.5 yards per carry -- down from 5.4 yards per carry in the regular season.
Then McCaffrey had an entire offseason to rest his Achilles.
And yet he reinjured it almost immediately during training camp. It was a prime opportunity to take the issue as a warning sign . . .
The Damage Done
As The Athletic's Jess Bryant pointed out, since 2000, the top-drafted RB has averaged 230.75 points per season, meaning McCaffrey's 2024 season fell a monstrous 197.95 points short of expectations.
Bryant noted that there have only been six instances when a No. 1 pick failed to finish in the top 12 at his position. Three of those six were McCaffrey letdowns, and, as Bryant explained, "Each of McCaffrey's underwhelming fantasy seasons can be attributed to injuries, and historically, managers tend to write off injuries as a red flag.
"But in the case of McCaffrey - and especially after that epic 2023 campaign - the upside appeal was too immense to ignore."
It Was Downright Irresistible
McCaffrey's 24.7 points per game in 2023 was 7.7 points better than Breece Hall (who finished as RB2) and 9.9 points better than Bijan Robinson (who was RB8).
As Footballguy Adam Harstad explained last September, "That kind of positional advantage is nearly impossible to replicate. McCaffrey outscored Robinson by more per game than Robinson outscored Emari Demercado or Zamir White, who finished the year 56th and 57th at the position. A team could have two top-10 running backs with Robinson (RB8) and Derrick Henry (RB9), and they'd still get beat out by a team starting McCaffrey and some random guy off of waivers."
Does that upside still exist? And if fantasy managers stop selecting McCaffrey at No. 1 overall, the next question is obvious . . .
How Should We Draft McCaffrey In 2025?
The great thing about talented players who disappoint fantasy investors is their talent remains. The questions left usually deal with health, circumstances, and situation.
That's no different with McCaffrey.
"Have the touches and injuries finally taken their toll?" Footballguys Dave Kluge asked in his (Way Too Early) 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings. "What will McCaffrey look like after this year's injuries? Will the 49ers exercise the option to release him this offseason? Will the team have to move Deebo Samuel Sr.., Brandon Aiyuk, or George Kittle to make room for a Brock Purdy mega-extension? Who will play on the offensive line?"
Our job as drafts that matter draw nearer will be answering those questions and gauging how the variables compare to the discount that inevitably comes from a failed outcome.
Fortunately, the more profound the disappointment, the steeper the discount.
In McCaffrey's case, the disappointment was as steep as it gets. As Bryant pointed out, "[McCaffery] wouldn't have returned second-, third- or fourth-round value this year."
In other words, the discount should be suitable. For Kluge, the current sweet spot is in the second round, as RB6. For Bryant, it's RB10.
That seems like a reasonable range to me.
But assuming the 49ers run it back one more year, the range of possible outcomes absolutely includes McCaffrey delivering leverage over the field weekly.
That kind of edge can't be dismissed out of hand -- at the right price . . .
The Flip Side
For every player who falls short, there are players who exceed expectations or outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP).
A Prime Example
As Profootballtalk.com's Josh Alper suggested this week, "The Ravens' decision to sign Derrick Henry as a free agent proved to be one of the best moves of the 2024 offseason."
Fantasy managers who drafted the veteran running back as RB8 with the 19th pick overall feel the same.
Henry is coming off a phenomenal first season in Baltimore, having compiled 1,921 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on a career-high 5.9 yards per carry across 17 regular-season games. He added 193 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 19 catches.
He became the first player in NFL history with multiple seasons of 1,900-plus rush yards. In addition, Henry is now tied with Hall of Famer Jim Brown for sixth all-time in career rushing touchdowns with 106.
The underlying numbers are equally impressive.
Henry's 1,137 yards after contact were more than all but eight running backs recorded overall -- before contact, after contact, or with no contact. He led the lead with 42 broken tackles during the season.
The 31-year-old 247-pounder also recorded two of the 20 fastest speeds on runs this season.
He hit 21.72 mph on an 81-yard run against the Buccaneers in Week 7 and 21.46 mph on a 51-yard Week 5 run in Cincinnati.
It's worth noting Henry will be back for the 2025 season after signing a two-year deal. His cap number is $12.895 million for his second year, and Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta was asked this week if the team has any thoughts of a contract extension that would make the deal more cap-friendly.
"I think he proved he had a lot left in the tank," DeCosta said. "We'll look at that, it's a good question. I'm just so grateful Derrick chose us last year."
DeCosta added that one of the goals for next season will be to get off to a faster start and that Henry "will be a big part" of that effort.
That would be great because . . .
There Will Be No Discounts Here
Henry finished the season as RB4 with 19.3 fantasy points per game. He's now finished in the top 5 at his position in five of the last six seasons.
Assuming we'll have to pay up to land him in drafts this summer, how much is too much?
Kluge has the early take, listing Henry as his RB12 going at that tail end of Round 2, explaining that "his and offensive environment give him a massive weekly ceiling but expect volatile week-to-week contributions from Henry next year as he enters his tenth season."
Overpaying for a player who just turned 31 at a position where decline usually becomes pronounced at age 29 doesn't seem wise.
Still, as ESPN's Tristan Cockroft recently pointed out, much of that statistical decline is predicated on these players getting fewer opportunities as they advance toward 30 years old. A decreased workload isn't the plan in Baltimore, and assuming Henry adheres to the intense offseason workout program he's used throughout his career, Kluge's initial ranking makes sense.
If nothing else, it leaves headroom for Henry to continue exceeding expectations. . .
This And That: Conference Championship Edition
Run Bills, Run
As ESPN.com's Ben Solak framed it, "The lingering question: Is the Bills' run game the missing piece to a postseason victory over the Chiefs?"
Solak noted that the Broncos were the best rush defense by success rate in the regular season. In the wild-card round, the Bills ran all over that vaunted run defense with a 50% success rate -- the best against the Broncos all season -- and totaled 210 yards on 44 carries.
The second-best rush defense by success rate in the regular season belonged to the Ravens. In the divisional round, the Bills ran all over that vaunted defense, too, with a 55.6 success rate -- the best against the Ravens all season. Buffalo had 36 carries for 147 yards and three scores.
The improvement along the Bills' offensive line, the skill of running back James Cook, and the designed running game with Josh Allen have created what Solak characterizes as "A clock-chewing, stick-moving beast in Buffalo."
It's true. Rookie Ray Davis and Ty Johnson have contributed along with Allen, but Cook is having a remarkable season -- from both an NFL and a fantasy football perspective.
Cook carried the ball 207 times for 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns.
His 18 total touchdowns tied him with Henry for second-most in the NFL (behind Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs, who found the end zone 20 times).
And even with Allen being a constant threat to steal carries in goal-line situations, Cook proved he's a threat to score from anywhere on the field, as he demonstrated with four rushing TDs of 40-plus yards this season, the most in a single season by a Bills running back.
"He's been so good for us this year and running the ball extremely hard. That was huge for us," Allen said.
It was also huge for fantasy investors, as Cook finished the season as RB9 with an average of 17.2 points per game. Better still, he was RB3 over the three-week span that matters most to fantasy players, Weeks 15-17, when he averaged 21.7 points per game.
Can he be a difference-maker against the Chiefs?
As Solak summed up, "If the Bills can generate a lead and shorten the game in the second half by stringing together long drives with a dominant running game, they can limit Patrick Mahomes II's chances with the football and protect that lead all the way to a victory. The formula is there."
Remember, Buffalo beat Kansas City 30-21 in November, handing the Chiefs their only loss this season with their starters playing.
Cook was held to 20 yards rushing on nine carries, but two of those carries went for touchdowns . . .
Another Big Postseason Run For Kelce?
As NFL.com's Jeffri Chadiha wrote, "You wouldn't know Travis Kelce produced his worst statistical season -- his 823 yards and three touchdowns were career-lows -- based on his record-setting performance in Kansas City's 20-12 Divisional Round win over Houston. The Texans had no answers for the future Hall-of-Fame tight end, as he led the Chiefs with seven receptions, 117 yards, and a touchdown."
To understand how vital Kelce was in this contest, consider that he drew a 32 percent target share and accounted for 66 percent of the 177 passing yards Patrick Mahomes II generated. Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy only amassed 45 receiving yards, while fellow wideouts DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown didn't even catch a pass.
While it seems like Kelce always does this every January, ESPN's Dan Graziano believes last week's performance was perhaps his best postseason leveling up we've ever seen. Kelce had 62 yards after the catch (his most YAC in a game this season). Per NFL Next Gen Stats, he had 30 YAC over expectation, the most in any game of his past two seasons. The performance included a postseason career-long 49-yard game-changing reception in which NFL.com contends "he was the wide-open weaving talent that's en route to Canton.
"The 35-year-old looked spry and fresh, like the clock was turned back a few years."
That said, Graziano reminded readers this was just the eighth 100-plus-yard game for a tight end at age 35 or older.
What he did Saturday was exceptional, and Graziano contends it's unreasonable to expect him to deliver a 100-yard performance in the AFC Championship Game and beyond.
But if not Kelce, who?
Can Hollywood Brown pull down a deep target next weekend (like the one he dropped on Saturday)? Can Hopkins show up with a couple of contested catches over the middle? Or will the Chiefs continue to run their passing offense through a tight end who doesn't move like he once did?
Remember, Buffalo gave up 18.3 fantasy points to the Chiefs' other tight end, Noah Gray, who caught two touchdown passes in Week 11. Kelce, limited to two catches for eight yards, scored 2.80 points in that one.
It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out, which Kelce's fantasy value in 2025 drafts likely depending greatly on the outcomes . . .
Will The Eagles Be Able To Fly?
The Philadelphia Eagles head to the NFC Championship Game with a passing offense that's been struggling.
Last Sunday, Philly bested the Los Angeles Rams, 28-22, thanks to an explosive rushing attack that generated 285 yards. Saquon Barkley ran for 205 yards and two long touchdowns. The Eagles pass game, however, struggled to find any traction. Jalen Hurts completed 15 of 20 passes for 128 yards while taking seven sacks.
Philly ended with 65 net passing yards.
According to NFL.com's Kevin Patra, A.J. Brown, who had just two catches on seven targets for 14 yards, blamed the wintry, blustery conditions for the Eagles' lack of passing attack -- even while admitting that Matthew Stafford had some success, throwing for 324 yards and two TDs.
"You've got to give this a pass," Brown said of the lack of an aerial attack. "The conditions were tough. I keep getting this question, but can't do nothing about it. The conditions were crazy. We couldn't even see out there, so imagine throwing the ball and catching the ball, even though (the Rams) were doing it at the end."
Hurts generated 66 yards passing in the first half before the real heavy stuff came down in the final two quarters -- for comparison's sake, Stafford had 126 yards and a TD in the first half.
While the weather might have been an issue, Patra points out this wasn't a one-game hiccup. Hurts threw for 131 yards in the Wild Card Round win over the Green Bay Packers. Not counting Week 15, when he exited early with a concussion, in his last six starts, Hurts has thrown for 200-plus yards a single time (290 versus Pittsburgh in Week 15).
In 17 starts, including playoffs, Hurts has thrown for 250-plus yards four times and breached the 300-plus yard barrier once -- in Week 3 versus New Orleans.
With Barkley and the running game there to pick up the slack, the lack of passing hasn't foiled the Eagles' season.
And in the rubber match against Washington in the NFC Championship Game, Philly will again lean on the run. In the two meetings with the Commanders this year, the Eagles averaged 219.5 yards on the ground. Another heavy dose of Barkley will keep him in the spotlight for at least one more week . . .
The Rookie Is In Command
As Chadiha noted, Jayden Daniels has impressed all season, but last Saturday's 45-31 win over Detroit tops anything he's done in this league.
He threw for 299 yards, ran for another 51, and accounted for two touchdowns while dominating the Lion's defense at various stretches of the game.
While Daniels was great in the wild-card win over Tampa Bay, he was sensational in Detroit, as he didn't turn the ball over and never really seemed fazed by the stage he was playing on. Washington head coach Dan Quinn trusted his young quarterback so much that he went for it four times on fourth down. Daniels helped the Commanders convert three of those.
They also scored four touchdowns on four trips inside the red zone, and now they're playing in their first NFC Championship Game in 33 years -- one they might win that one with the way Daniels' has been playing.
So, the question is this: Is Daniels the best rookie quarterback ever?
According to Solak, by EPA per dropback -- including postseason numbers -- Daniel is having the fifth-best rookie quarterback season. By success rate, it's third. Players above him include Robert Griffin III, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott, who had genuinely incredible rookie years.
But Solak acknowledges none of those players had multiple postseason wins on the road. None of them knocked off the No. 1 seed.
Daniels became only the fourth quarterback in NFL history to win multiple playoff games in his rookie season, joining Brock Purdy, Mark Sanchez, and Joe Flacco. No rookie QB has ever won three.
We'll see if Daniels can pull that off in Philadelphia on Sunday . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
After another frustrating finish in the playoffs, a ticked-off Lamar Jackson refused to blame tight end Mark Andrews' dropped pass on a late 2-point conversion attempt at the end of the 27-25 loss to the Bills in Sunday's AFC divisional game. On the 2-point conversion attempt, Jackson's pass hit Andrews in the stomach before the ball slipped through his grasp as he fell backward into the end zone.
Before Sunday's game, Andrews hadn't dropped a pass since Week 6 against Washington in October. In the divisional game, Andrews dropped two passes, including the critical 2-point conversion attempt.
Andrews also fumbled near midfield during the middle of the fourth quarter when he had the ball punched out. It was the second fumble of his seven-year career.
It was a tough night for Andrews in Buffalo, but Bills fans and others are stepping up with support.
Alarmed by the backlash at Andrews after his miscues, Bills fan Nicholas Howard has started a GoFundMe to raise money for Breakthrough TD1, a diabetes research and advocacy organization.
The organization is near and dear to Andrews, who was diagnosed with Type-1 diabetes at 9 years old and still deals with it every day. He checks his blood-sugar levels between each offensive series.
Andrews has been outspoken in his advocacy around the issue and served as a Breakthrough TD1 youth ambassador.
The fundraiser had an initial goal of $5,000 but was closing in on $100,000 as of Thursday morning with a new goal of $140,000. More than 3,00 people have donated.
Shout out to Bills Mafia for showing support to our guy Mark Andrews and donating to the @BreakthroughT1D organization, which works towards curing and improving the lives of those dealing with Type 1 diabetes. ?https://t.co/tQfjchcmOx
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 22, 2025
Bills Mafia has a long history of supporting players on other teams. In 2018, Buffalo's passionate fan base donated over $250,000 to then-Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton and his wife's foundation after Dalton helped Buffalo clinch a playoff berth by leading a game-winning drive that knocked Baltimore out of the playoffs.
It's nice to see some good come from all of it.
The Bad
As Chadiha suggested, Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud had to know last Saturday's matchup with Kansas City was going to be an uphill battle. The Texans came into this game with only one starting wide receiver still healthy from Week 1 (Nico Collins), running back Joe Mixon playing on a gimpy ankle, and an offensive line that surrendered 54 sacks this season (tied for 30th in the league).
While all those issues didn't keep Stroud from battling and giving his team a shot in this contest, they didn't make it easier. And Stroud once again took a beating.
In addition to sacking him eight times, the Chiefs hit Stroud 14 times.
He was battered so much the second-year signal caller needed to be helped off the field in the final minutes after aggravating a knee injury sustained in the first half.
It's been a long year for a Texans team that fell short of high expectations for several reasons, including debilitating injuries. However, few fell further from meeting expectations than Stroud, who was drafted as QB6 last summer before finishing the regular season as QB18.
The Texans have a lot of work to do along the offensive line and at wide receiver (Tank Dell's future is in question after a devastating knee injury, and Stefon Diggs, who suffered a torn ACL, becomes a free agent this offseason), to turn things around for their talented, young franchise quarterback . . .
The Ugly
Turnovers were the story of the night in Detroit on Saturday.
Jared Goff finished with four of them -- a fumble and three interceptions -- with two of those picks hurting the Lions in the first half. The first was an interception that Washington safety Quan Martin snared in the second quarter and returned 40 yards for a touchdown that gave the Commanders a 24-14 lead. The second pick came when Goff tried to hit wide receiver Jameson Williams on a long post pattern late in that same quarter, only to see Washington cornerback Mike Sainristil undercut the route and grab the pass in the end zone.
Those mistakes played a major role in the Lions trailing 31-21 at halftime.
Williams added another interception on a trick play, Goff added a fourth INT to close the contest, and the Lions couldn't catch up to the Commanders, forcing Goff to throw on nearly every down.
As Graziano suggested, this season's Lions were supposed to be an unstoppable force. But they did a lot Saturday to stop themselves.
And now, with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn getting head coach jobs (in Chicago and with the Jets, respectively), it's fair to wonder if this wasn't Detroit's best shot of reaching a Super Bowl.
Even if they have the roster to duplicate that success, Graziano put it best when he wrote, "It's really tough to have a season like the one the Lions just had, and the fact that they didn't cash it in could very well haunt them for years to come . . ."
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Even though the 2024 regular season is over, many of you continue participating in postseason fantasy contests. If so, hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Otherwise, I'll see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can listen to Harris on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.