Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
What Do We Remember?
The final week of NFL play doesn't always matter to fantasy investors. At least not directly. Sure, there are leagues with Week 18 finals or that use it as the last weekend of multi-week championship games. One-and-done contests and daily fantasy games also depend on the outcomes of these often meaningless NFL games. But for most of us, the uncertainty and random nature of playing time that is part and parcel of Week 18 -- difficult to divine even in the moment and downright impossible to predict during our drafts in August and September -- lead to avoidance.
However, Week 18 demonstrates a dynamic as powerful in real life as in fantasy sports.
What do we remember? We remember the last thing we see.
That being the case, let's review some of the final weekend's most prominent performers while keeping an eye on some players, performances, and situations that shouldn't be forgotten.
We'll Remember Gibbs' Big Night
Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs continued to prove he's every bit an elite running back with David Montgomery sidelined with another eye-opening performance in the finale, scoring all four of the game's touchdowns in Detroit's' 31-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings.
Lions coach Dan Campbell described Gibbs as Detroit's "X factor" versus the Vikings, as he finished with 23 carries for 139 yards to go with five catches for 31 yards.
No other Lions running back had produced a four-touchdown game since the great Barry Sanders did it in 1991, also against the Vikings.
The effort garnered Gibbs NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors and helped Detroit clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed for the first time, win a second straight NFC North title, and earn a first-round bye for the playoffs. In addition to becoming the first Lions player to lead the NFL in scrimmage touchdowns (20) since Sanders in 1991 (17) while setting a single-season franchise record for TDs, Gibbs finishes the season as the fantasy's RB1 overall with 21.5 points per game.
More importantly, for our purposes, Gibbs delivered an RB1 effort on the week with a massive 46-point output for fantasy investors leaning into him.
Saquon Barkley, who sat out Week 18 with the Eagles having nothing to play for in terms of postseason positioning, finished with a higher per-game average (22.0 points per game), but Gibbs' 364.9 total points moved him ahead of the former Giant, who finished with 351.3 total points in his first season in Philadelphia.
So, yes, Gibbs was great, but . . .
We Shouldn't Forget Montgomery
Montgomery has been out since Week 15 with an MCL injury in his left knee. Before going down, he split the backfield evenly with Gibbs.
Montgomery, 27, signed with the Lions as a free agent in 2023 from Chicago and became a tone-setter thanks to his physical running style and ability to consistently churn out extra yards. Through 14 games, Montgomery had 775 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on 185 carries. He had 13 touchdowns in the regular season in 2023.
Gibbs was RB5, playing alongside Montgomery over the first 14 weeks. The second-year man averaged an impressive 18 points per game over that span. I'm fine drafting Gibbs aggressively this year (2025 Best Ball Draft rooms open in February, for those wondering). In his (Way Too Early) 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings published last week, Footballguy Dave Kluge has Gibbs as his RB3, going with pick 1.08. Barkley (1.01) and Atlanta's Bijan Robinson (1.03) are the two backs ahead of him.
What I want you to remember, however, is that Montgomery was RB9 over the first 14 weeks. He averaged 16.6 points per game.
Last season, Gibbs finished as RB10 with 16.3 fantasy points per game; Montgomery was RB17 with 14.8 points per game.
Gibbs was the sixth running back off the board in 2024, with an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 13. Montgomery was RB19 with a fifth-round (62nd pick overall) ADP.
After he watched Gibbs' big Week 18 performance from the sidelines, Montgomery could be an even better value in 2025 . . .
We'll Remember Lamar's MVP Push
With one final regular-season chance to show why he deserves a second-consecutive and third-overall MVP award, Lamar Jackson balled out to lead his team to victory over the Browns on Saturday.
With his final stat line of 63 yards rushing and 217 passing with two TDs, Jackson's season-long success made him the first player in NFL history to have 4,000-plus passing yards (4,172 yards to be exact) and 900-plus rush yards (915 for you sticklers) in the same season.
He also finished the 2024 regular season with 41 touchdown passes and only four interceptions.
That's a historic stat line.
As Profootballtalk.com noted, never before had a player topped 40 touchdowns while throwing less than five interceptions. Prior to Jackson this year, the most touchdown passes ever thrown in a season with fewer than five interceptions was 37, set by Aaron Rodgers in 2021. And the fewest interceptions ever thrown in a season with at least 40 touchdown passes was five -- also set by Rodgers in 2020.
Jackson is the NFL's all-time leading rusher among quarterbacks, but his spectacular running ability may have led him to become underrated as a passer. Jackson has had a historic season in 2024 based solely on his passing accomplishments.
Saturday's performance put the cap on a QB1 overall season for Jackson, who averaged 25.8 points per game. As great as that was . . .
We Shouldn't Forget Allen's Consistency
Jackson has been electric this year. No doubt.
Josh Allen's final stats (3,731 passing yards, 28 passing TDs, 6 INTs, 531 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs) pale in comparison. Allen's totals would have been better had he played a full game -- with something on the line -- in Week 18.
Still, he finished the year as QB3 on the season, with an average of 22.4 points per game.
But don't get lost in the sauce here. From a fantasy perspective, Allen continues to dominate the position like no other.
Both Allen and Jackson entered the league in the 2018 NFL Draft. Their rookie seasons were not high-end.
Allen started 12 games and finished as QB21; Jackson started 16 games and finished as QB29.
After that?
Allen finished as QB6 in 2019. Since then, he's finished as QB1 three times (in 2020, 2021, and 2023) and QB2 once (in 2022) before his No. 3 finish this year. That includes top-10 overall finishes (all positions included) every season starting in 2020.
Jackson has been a little more up and down. He was QB1 in 2019, QB10 in 2020, QB16 in 2021, QB14 in 2022, and QB4 in 2023 before returning to the top this year.
Allen's consistency and Jackson's variance are something we should be mindful of when drafting later this year . . .
We Also Shouldn't Forget The King Lives!
After a slow start in the first half Saturday (eight yards on six carries), Derrick Henry rumbled for 130 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the final two quarters for his ninth game this year with 100-plus rush yards.
With his 138 yards on the ground, Henry became the first player in NFL history with multiple seasons of 1,900-plus rush yards, having finished the year with 1,921. In addition, with his two touchdowns versus the Browns, Henry is now tied with Hall of Famer Jim Brown for sixth all-time in career rushing touchdowns with 106.
Henry ran for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns.
He and Jackson set an NFL record for the most combined rushing yards for a quarterback and a running back, with 2,836 yards.
Henry, appropriately nicknamed "King Henry," joined the Ravens this offseason on a modest two-year, $16 million deal after eight years with the Titans, having already established himself as one of the game's best running backs of all time.
The change of scenery didn't change that.
At 31 years old, Henry was named Pro Football Focus' "Best Runner" award following the 2024 NFL regular season after posting the highest PFF overall and rushing grades of his career in 2024.
Worth noting, Henry surpassed Barkley in several areas: Henry beat out Barkley in yards after contact per attempt (3.50 to 3.17), forced missed tackles per attempt (0.25 to 0.18), and PFF rushing grade (93.1 to 85.6), among other categories.
Henry's 1,137 yards after contact were more than all but eight running backs recorded overall -- before contact, after contact, or with no contact.
And he's not slowing down.
Sure, Barkley had the fourth, fifth, 12th, and 14th fastest runs this season. His top speed was 21.93 mph.
But Henry had two carries among the 20 fastest this season: The 11th fastest when he hit 21.72 mph on an 81-yard run against the Buccaneers in Week 7, and the 20th fastest (21.46 mph) on a 51-yarder against the Bengals in Week 5.
Not bad for a 247-pounder, eh?
Henry finished the year as RB4 with 19.9 fantasy points per game. He's now finished in the top 5 at his position in five of the last six seasons . . .
We'll Remember Ja'Marr's Chase For The Triple Crown
Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase joined an exclusive club in 2024, becoming the sixth receiver to lead the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in a single season to win the NFL Triple Crown.
He joins Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe, Steve Smith Sr., and Cooper Kupp as the only receivers to accomplish the feat since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970.
As WDTN Dayton's Joey DeBerardino recounted, Chase finished the season with 127 receptions for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns. He also set the franchise record for receptions and yards and tied the franchise record for touchdowns. He matched Carl Pickens' 17 touchdowns from 1995.
The LSU product had over 50 yards in 16 of 17 games and grabbed at least five receptions in 15 of 17 games.
He tallied up 21 receptions for 457 yards and five touchdowns in two games against the Baltimore Ravens and added 177 yards and two scores on 14 receptions on Monday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys.
Chase caught 72.6 percent of his targets (that number is 67.9 for his career).
"[Ja'Marr] deserves it all," QB Joe Burrow said after Saturday's 19-17 win over the Steelers. "He works really hard for it. He's obviously a great player, great person. To etch his name in history like that is really special, and I'm excited to be a part of it. I know everybody else is, too."
Not surprisingly, Chase finished the 2024 season as the WR1 overall after averaging 23.7 points per game.
He also had two of the top-three wideout scores of the season with a 45.1-point effort in Week 14 and 55.4 in Week 10, the highest total for a wideout all year . . .
We Shouldn't Forget His Chase For A New Deal
Bengals brass will have to contend with how much to pay Chase in a much-deserved extension, a price that has only gotten higher with the wideout's career year.
After he spent most of the summer of 2024 holding in -- reporting for camp and attending practices without practicing, Chase will likely withhold services altogether until he gets the deal he's looking for this year. If that's the case, it's worth refreshing our memories of how the team handled these situations in the past.
To that end, I spoke with Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com last September, and he explained the approach.
"This is, if you've followed the Bengals for a long time, what happens last week in August, early September when they're looking to sign one of their staple players," Hobson told me. "I can go back to Willie Anderson getting on a bus for the preseason finale (in 2006) and signing the biggest offensive line deal in history. Last year, Joe Burrow signed the biggest quarterback deal in history the day before the opener."
Hobson pointed out that Geno Atkins and A.J. Green also got deals at the wire during their tenures in Cincinnati.
"This is what happens," Hobson added.
Don't be surprised if it happens with Chase in 2025 . . .
We Also Shouldn't Forget Chase's Triggerman
Burrow also set milestones in 2024, leading the NFL in passing yards (4,918) and passing touchdowns (43). He became the third quarterback in league history to have at least 4,500 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns, and fewer than 10 interceptions, joining Tom Brady in 2007 and Rodgers in 2011.
The former first-overall pick set an NFL record with eight straight games of at least 250 passing yards and at least three touchdown passes. He also became the second QB in league history to have multiple seasons, completing at least 70 percent of his passes, joining Drew Brees.
He tied Cincinnati legend Ken Anderson for the franchise record with his 70.6 percent completion percentage, and he broke his own franchise records for yards and touchdowns.
As a result, Burrow finished the season as QB2 with a 22.5-point per game average . . .
We'll Remember Evans' Big Big Moment
Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield talked about how much he wanted to get wide receiver Mike Evans to 1,000 receiving yards heading into Sunday's game against the Saints, but it looked like the effort might fall short. Evans had 80 of the 85 yards he needed to tie Jerry Rice with 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons when running back Bucky Irving scored with 1:51 left in the game.
The score put the Bucs up eight points, so there was no guarantee that the Bucs would get the ball back before time expired.
However, the Bucs' defense forced a turnover on downs with 36 seconds left, and Tampa Bay ran a play to get Evans the ball. He picked up nine yards and touched off a celebration that he called "one of the coolest moments" he's experienced at Raymond James Stadium.
Hitting 1,000 yards also triggered a $3 million bonus for Evans, who signed a new deal to remain with the Bucs in the offseason.
And if you're not sure how important these milestones are for the players involved and team morale in general, let me help you:
With this catch, Mike Evans surpasses 1,000 receiving yards for the 11th straight season and cashed in on a $3M incentive ?
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 5, 2025
(? FOX) pic.twitter.com/abYiJN8ca4
Every player, everybody in the stands, and this viewer, all felt like they were a part of that. It matters . . .
We Shouldn't Forget Evans On Draft Day
As the team's official website recounted, after racking up 1,255 yards in 2023 for his 10th straight 1,000-yard season, Evans had a trickier path to the mark this year due to a hamstring injury that cost him three games and most of a fourth. Evans returned to action in Week 12 and still needed 665 yards over the final seven games to get to quadruple digits.
He proceeded to average 96.7 yards per game over the next six weeks, with a 159-yard outing against the Chargers and 118 against the Panthers, to put his total at 915 yards heading into the regular-season finale.
Think about that finish. Despite the missed time, Evans was a fantasy WR1 this season (WR12 overall).
Evans was the 26th player (and 15th receiver) taken in fantasy drafts in 2024. Don't be surprised if he slides further in 2025.
And if he does, this is where I tell you acquiring players who exceed their expected return on investment is the path to fantasy success . . .
My Favorite Reminder
It would be great if everybody in the NFL played with high-end producers at quarterback. The reality is they don't. So let me remind you one more time:
Don't let less-than-ideal quarterbacks scare you off talented pass catchers.
I get it; it would be great if all our fantasy-receiving assets played with high-end passers. But for every Jackson, Allen, Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes II, or Mayfield, there's a Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, or Bailey Zappe.
Okay, the list of less-than-ideal quarterbacks is by no means limited to the Cleveland Browns. I'll also throw the New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, and the Jacksonville Jaguars into the mix.
Nonetheless, three of this year's top receiving assets -- all rookies -- played for the Giants, Raiders, and Jaguars.
Despite missing two games and playing with four different quarterbacks (Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock, and Tim Boyle) in New York, Malik Nabers finished his first season as a pro with 109 total catches -- a rookie wide receiver record.
In Las Vegas, Brock Bowers finished with 112 catches in 2024, passing Nabers to officially secure the NFL record for most receptions by a rookie at any position in NFL history. Last week, he broke Mike Ditka's 63-year-old NFL record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end (1,076). Bowers finished the season with 1,194 yards. He did it playing with the trio of Gardner Minshew II, Aidan O'Connell, and Desmond Ridder.
With seven catches for 103 yards in Week 18, Jacksonville's Brian Thomas Jr. pushed his total of games with 75-plus receiving yards to 11, the most such games by a rookie in the Super Bowl era. He did this despite having Mac Jones as his quarterback for eight games.
Thomas finished the season as WR5 with 16.5 points per game; Nabers was WR6 with 18.1 points per game; and Bowers was TE1 with 15.5 points per game.
And since I mentioned the Browns, it's probably worth noting Jerry Jeudy cobbled together a WR16 season despite Cleveland's shortcomings under center.
Don't worry if this concept slips your mind at some point this offseason; I'll be here to remind you of it almost every week . . .
This And That
Saving The Best for Last
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young finished his second season in promising fashion with 21 touchdowns -- 15 passing and six rushing -- in his final 10 starts, including five in Sunday's 44-38 overtime win over an Atlanta Falcons squad competing for a playoff spot.
Young diced up Atlanta's defense, throwing three touchdown passes with a 123.5 passer rating, both career highs. He ran in two more touchdowns. He joined Allen as the only players in 2024 with three-plus pass TDs and two-plus rush TDs in a single game -- also becoming the first Carolina player to do so in a single game.
"A real good win. I think we've got our QB here," owner David Tepper told NFL Network's Cameron Wolfe after the game.
Young generated two-plus pass TDs and zero INTs in his past three games -- the first Panthers QB to hit those figures since Cam Newton in 2018 -- with a 100-plus passer rating in each contest.
On Sunday, he looked every bit the playmaker the Panthers believed they were drafting.
He also finished as QB1 on the week with 36.4 fantasy points . . .
Saving The Best For Last, Too
Jonathan Taylor is back. Indianapolis leaned heavily on their bell cow back with high-volume games down the stretch, watching him average 150 rushing yards on 27.6 carries per contest in their last three outings.
In Week 18, they gave Taylor 34 carries and watched him rumble for 177 yards and a touchdown.
As NFL.com suggested, sheer volume alone can produce these numbers, but Taylor's consistency and ability to break through to the second level has been consistently apparent during this run, just as it was Sunday.
That's an excellent sign for a Colts team that hasn't been able to count on him much in recent seasons but might want to rely on him as a key part of their offense entering 2025, especially when considering how unstable the quarterback position has been for them in the last few years.
As for the fantasy angle here, Taylor finished the year as RB13, but he was RB2 over the final three weeks of the year; expect to pay a draft-day premium for that this summer . . .
Career Renaissance
Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton recorded 13 catches on go routes -- tied for most in the league -- for 304 yards (eighth) and five touchdowns (tied for fourth) during the 2024 regular season, according to Next Gen Stats.
Sutton benefited greatly from the arrival of rookie QB Bo Nix, and the Nix-to-Sutton connection has been a big reason for the Broncos' 2024 success.
Sutton had a career-high 81 receptions for the season on 135 targets for 1,081 yards and eight touchdowns. Sutton, who was drafted as WR46 with the 98th pick overall, obviously exceeded that 8th round Average Draft Position. He finished the year as WR11 with an average of 14.4 points per game. Expect to pay up in this year's drafts . . .
Sustained Success
Sunday was a great day for the Cardinals offense, but the standout was still tight end Trey McBride, who was all over the field for Arizona, leading the team with seven catches on 11 targets for 65 yards, with a two-yard touchdown reception.
That score was McBride's second in the last two weeks after going without a touchdown for the first 15 games of the season. He finishes the year with 111 catches for 1,146 yards, second behind only Bowers in receptions and receiving yards for a TE.
McBride now has 221 career catches, officially passing the 49ers' George Kittle (216) for the most receptions by a tight end in their first three NFL seasons . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
Playing in his 248th career game, Rodgers completed 23 of his 36 passes for 274 yards and a season-high four touchdowns, including the 500th of his career, in a 32-20 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.
Rodgers hit that milestone faster than anyone but Peyton Manning (244 games). Sitting in fifth place all-time in career TD tosses, Rodgers is now in the 500 club with all-time leader Brady (649), Brees (571), Manning (539), and his former teammate Brett Favre (508). Favre and Manning are already enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and Brees, Brady, and Rodgers will eventually join them.
That first touchdown was also the 25th of the season for Rodgers, tying him with Brees at 14 seasons with 25 or more TD passes, which is third all-time.
Following a disappointing 2024 campaign, what the future holds for Rodgers is very much uncertain. Whether he plays at all remains undetermined. Whether he plays for the Jets again seems unlikely. But on Sunday, he delivered a statistical prompt of just how stellar his career has been.
For all the negativity that has followed Rodgers in recent years, it was nice to see him have a good day for once -- especially if it was his last.
The Bad
The Steelers defense held Burrow in check as long as it could, but for the fourth week in a row, the Pittsburgh offense dragged this team down, extending their losing streak to four games.
As NFL.com's Michael Baca suggested, when they tried to get yards through the air, it often resulted in short passes from Russell Wilson, including some off-target misses and the occasional drop, including a huge missed connection with George Pickens with under 30 seconds remaining and a fourth-down ball that bounced off the hands of Pat Freiermuth on the final offensive play.
When the Steelers leaned on the run, it wasn't necessarily any more successful.
While the combo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren was able to get Pittsburgh into the end zone in the second quarter, their 37 rush yards on that drive were half of the team's total on the day.
But Baca believes the most obvious indictment of the Steelers' struggles to get the ball moving came at the end of the first half when the offense faced third-and-1 and then fourth-and-1 situations with a chance to get into field goal range to score before the break. But twice they couldn't get that one yard, and it ended up being Cincinnati that got a last-minute field goal on the ensuing drive, a six-point swing that could have made the difference.
In a halftime interview, head coach Mike Tomlin said they didn't deserve to win if they couldn't get one yard. And in the end, they didn't . . .
The Ugly
Tyreek Hill raised eyebrows following the Miami Dolphins' Week 18 loss to the New York Jets on Sunday.
Clearly frustrated by his team's 8-9 finish to the 2024 NFL regular season, Hill declared, "I'm out, bro," in a viral postgame press conference.
On the social media site X, Hill briefly changed his profile picture to be his face on the body of Antonio Brown from when the star wideout ran off the field for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022.
After the loss, Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel indicated that Hill "kind of" pulled himself out of the game in the fourth quarter. Many fans and critics are accusing Hill of "quitting" on his team.
Hill responded to these critics with a simple statement on Tuesday night.
May not like me but you will respect 10??
— Ty Hill (@cheetah) January 8, 2025
Hill turned in his worst statistical season since 2019, recording 81 catches for 959 yards and six touchdowns in 17 games. He played six of those games without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which he said made things difficult this season . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Even though the 2024 regular season is over, many of you continue participating in postseason fantasy contests. For those who want to keep the fun rolling -- and win some real money along the way -- the NFFC has you covered with their Postseason Hold 'em and Mini Playoff Hold 'em contests.
Like all playoff contests, it requires a combination of picking the best fantasy scorers and predicting the winners of playoff games to take home the $150,000 (on a $200 entry, with a maximum of 1650 entries!) first prize or $50,000 (on a $50 entry, with a maximum of 2500 entries!) first prize. The rules are straightforward, save for a twist that will reward the most forward-thinking entries (again, review all the rules and scoring here).
To get up to speed, check Kluge's NFFC Post Season Hold 'Em Strategy and Roster Construction. If you want to get further ahead of the curve, fellow Footballguy Sigmund Bloom's Building the Perfect NFFC Hold 'Em Week 1 Lineup will help.
Meanwhile, we're working on a plan to keep my Hotseat Show on The Footballguys Audible channel rolling this offseason, so stay tuned for more on that.
Otherwise, I'll see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Catch Harris on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.