Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
League Winners
League winners come in many forms. Sometimes, they come as expected; other times, they come out of nowhere. Success in Week 17 requires a combination of fortuitous circumstances and stellar performances to secure the ultimate fantasy prize: Your league championship.
But championships aren't built entirely in the moment. It's also a season-long effort with ups and downs along the way. In this edition of the Fantasy Notebook, we'll look at some of the situations and players who delivered in Week 17 and the situations, performances, surprises, and disappointments that led us to this spot.
A Winning Decision
As ESPN.com's Eric Woodyard framed it, "Should he? Or shouldn't he?"
Entering the Monday Night Football showdown against the San Francisco 49ers, Lions coach Dan Campbell weighed whether he should rest or play the starters.
It was a decision with weighty fantasy ramifications.
After careful consideration, Campbell did us all a solid, deciding to go with his top guys in a rematch of the 2023 NFC Championship Game in San Francisco, and the Lions left with a 40-34 win over the 49ers while avoiding any significant injuries.
"Yeah, it was on my mind, and I thought a lot about it. I thought about it leading up to the game; I thought about it last night," Campbell said. "I told the staff, but I ended up settling on the right thing to do was to play these guys because we owed it to the team."
Campbell insisted the Lions were playing to win, although the game didn't have playoff implications. But pride was on the line after blowing a 17-point halftime lead to the same team last postseason to fall one game shy of reaching the Super Bowl.
Jared Goff and the offense delivered the desired retribution . . .
And We All Reaped The Rewards
In his California homecoming, Goff threw for 303 passing yards while completing 26-of-34 passes with three touchdowns and zero interceptions.
It was the fourth-straight three-touchdown game for the veteran signal-caller, who spread the wealth by throwing scoring strikes to three players -- Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta.
"I thought Goff had a big game," Campbell understated. "Goff played lights out today. And he's been playing like this. I just thought he took another step up, which is hard to believe with where he's been playing because it is such a high level."
The quarterback's play this year might be taking some by surprise this year, but . . .
Detroit's Success Starts Under Center
Goff is putting together a historic season.
Monday was his eighth game of the season with a completion percentage of at least 75 percent, which tied Tom Brady (2007) for the most such games in a season in NFL history.
It was his 11th game of the season with a 70 percent completion percentage, seven of them on the road for a team that finished undefeated away from home this season. Goff remained poised in pressure situations. All three of his touchdowns were on either third or fourth down in San Francisco. He has 17 touchdowns and zero interceptions on third or fourth down this season.
More importantly, Goff finished as QB1 over the three-game stretch that mattered most, averaging 30.1 points per game over Weeks 15 through 17 . . .
Pedal To The Metal
With Goff leading the charge, Detroit posted their fifth game with 40-plus points and zero turnovers this season, adding to their reputation as an offensive machine.
They scored in various ways, including another appearance of the hook and lateral that saw Williams round the corner with the encouragement of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and win the race to the pylon. The resulting outcomes for the receiving assets were fantasy-friendly, as you might expect.
- Williams logged five receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown and added a three-yard touchdown run in the win over the 49ers. His big-play prowess continued, taking the aforementioned lateral from St. Brown 41 yards to the end zone. In doing so, Williams became the second player in franchise history (and the first since 1952) to log at least five touchdown receptions of 40 or more yards in a single season.
- St. Brown joined Larry Fitzgerald as the only wide receivers in NFL History to have multiple seasons with 100-plus catches, 1,000-plus receiving yards, and 10-plus touchdowns in their first four years in the league. His second-quarter score on Monday night was the 33rd touchdown of his career, putting him in a tie with Calvin Johnson. On Sunday, St. Brown can take the top spot alone.
- LaPorta became the fifth Lions player with at least seven touchdowns this season, the most players to reach that number in a season in franchise history. He is now the first tight end in NFL history to produce at least 600 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns in each of a player's first two career seasons.
Meanwhile, Jahmyr Gibbs carried the ball 18 times for 117 yards and a touchdown, gaining the second-most yards before contact of his career (85).
Better still, they never took their foot off the gas . . .
The Broader View
Detroit didn't turn every drive into a touchdown, stalling and settling for field goals twice and turning it over on downs in the 49ers' red zone once, but as NFL.com's Nick Shook put it, "much like an avalanche, their power ended up engulfing their opponent."
While Fantasy managers benefited greatly from this high-powered offense in the most critical week of the season, those same Lions were almost certainly part of the reason they reached that point.
With Gibbs, David Montgomery, St. Brown, and Williams all producing at a high level, the 2024 Lions achieved something no team has ever done:
The 2024 Lions are the first team in NFL History to have multiple RBs and multiple WRs all with 1,000+ yards from scrimmage in the same season ?? https://t.co/iBipSEJxqE pic.twitter.com/ndwC70UY2v
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 31, 2024
If that wasn't enough . . . First-year kicker Jake Bates converted two field goals Monday, including a 57-yarder. Bates now has 135 points on the season, passing Jason Hanson (134 points in 2012) for the most points scored in a season in franchise history. He's also hit three field goals of 55 or longer this year . . .
Thanks, Coach!
Detroit now prepares to face the Minnesota Vikings at home on Sunday night with the NFC North Division title and the NFC's No. 1 seed on the line. For Campbell, it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Detroit is one of five teams since seeding began in 1975 that has never been a No. 1 seed, along with the Cardinals, Texans, Buccaneers, and Jets.
"This is what you're in it for, man. Ultimately, this is it," Campbell said. "I mean, you couldn't write a better scenario."
Neither could we . . .
A Dynamic Fantasy Duo
The Bengals remain alive in the AFC playoff picture primarily because of Joe Burrow, named the Week 17 AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance in Saturday's win over the Broncos.
Of much greater importance, he was also the top fantasy quarterback for the week, scoring 37.0 points in the biggest week of the year.
Burrow completed 39 of 49 pass attempts for 412 passing yards and three touchdowns, plus another touchdown rushing, in the Bengals' 30-24 overtime win over the Broncos.
What Burrow went through to achieve it all -- seven sacks, 15 QB hits -- is the context that makes his effort all that more impressive, and Cincinnati remains alive in the postseason hunt thanks to his effort . . .
For The Record(s)
It was Burrow's seventh Player of the Week award. He also earned those honors in Weeks 4 and 16 of 2021, Weeks 7, 13, and 16 of 2022, and Week 8 of 2023.
In addition, Burrow is the fourth QB in NFL history to have 10 games with 250-plus passing yards and three passing TDs in a single season (each of the other three QBs to do so won 12-plus games and were named NFL MVP). Saturday's performance was also Burrow's eighth straight with three-plus passing TDs, tied for the second-longest such streak in NFL history (Brady had 10 in 2007).
As a result, Burrow was QB5 over the all-important Week 15-17 stretch, averaging 26.6 points per game.
For the season, he sits at QB3 with 23.1 points per game . . .
Last Hurrah?
Tee Higgins knew what Saturday night represented for him and the Bengals. The veteran wideout, playing on the franchise tag in what might be his final season in Cincinnati, was dealing with ankle and knee injuries. But at the beginning of the week, Higgins sent coach Zac Taylor a brief text message during a team meeting that set the tone going into Saturday: "I'm playing."
With the season on the line, Higgins, playing through a questionable designation, turned in a career performance.
He finished with 11 catches on 12 targets for 131 yards and three touchdowns, the most in his five seasons in the NFL.
Fantasy managers who rolled Higgins out despite that questionable status were rewarded for their intestinal fortitude.
He finished the week as WR1 overall, rewarding his investors with 42.1 points.
It was the fourth-best wide receiver performance all season. San Francisco's Jauan Jennings hit 46.5 points in Week 3, while Higgins' teammate, Ja'Marr Chase, had the other two with 45.1 points in Week 14 and 55.4 in Week 10, the highest total for a wideout all year . . .
Commanding Performance
As NFL.com's Grant Gordon suggested, this is a new era in Washington under a welcomed new regime. Their best move came last April when they selected Jayden Daniels as the second pick in the 2024 Draft.
Sunday night, Daniels dazzled with his arm and legs to lead Washington to a comeback win that included a 2-yard game-winning touchdown pass to Zach Ertz in OT.
It was Daniels' third touchdown pass of the evening. He finished a historic night in which Washington clinched just its sixth playoff berth this century, completing 24-of-36 passing for 227 yards with the three TDs and an interception.
However, his legs often did the heavy lifting, as he carried the ball 16 times for a season-high 127 yards. It was the most rushing yards and the third-most rushing yards over expected (+42) by any quarterback in a game this season.
With 864 yards on the season, Daniels has the most rushing yards by a rookie quarterback in NFL history. He broke the old mark of 815 set by former Commanders quarterback Robert Griffin III in 2012. Griffin played 15 games during his rookie season. Daniels is playing his 16th.
While the rushing totals set him apart, his nose for the end zone adds to that.
Daniels now also has 31 total touchdowns, becoming just the fourth rookie QB with 30-plus total touchdowns, joining Justin Herbert (36 in 2020), Cam Newton (35 in 2011), and Russell Wilson (30 in 2012).
Daniels answered any remaining questions about who the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year should be.
It was the third game in a row Washington won on the final play from scrimmage: The Commanders held off a 2-point conversion attempt to top the New Orleans Saints; Daniels threw a touchdown pass to cap a rally from 14 points down to fell the Philadelphia Eagles; and then Sunday night's adventure took place.
Daniels also beat the New York Giants in Week 2 with a late drive for a field goal and the Bears in Week 7 on a Hail Mary.
"He's the most mature rookie I've ever been around. He exudes a quiet confidence," Ertz said. "He's not a rah-rah guy. We all know how good he is and how much confidence we have in him. He doesn't need to say anything."
Daniels was QB4 on the week with 31.8 points. It was a fine way to cap a three-week run that saw him finish as QB2 behind only Goff from Weeks 15-17.
Daniels, who was the 11th quarterback drafted heading into the season, finished the season as QB5 with 21.6 points per game . . .
Really Happy . . . Or Really Mad
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 125 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries against the New York Giants in Week 17. He also caught two passes for 11 yards during the game.
It added to a massive finish to the season.
As ESPN.com noted, Taylor topped 100 rushing yards for the third straight game, a stretch in which he's racked up 450 yards and five TDs on the ground while averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
Taylor was RB1 overall this past Sunday with 27.6 fantasy points. It was his second straight RB1 performance. He delivered a remarkable 218-yard, three-touchdown outing against the Titans in Week 16, which resulted in a position-high 39.8 points for his investors.
But as noted in last week's Fantasy Notebook, all this only mattered to those who made it into the playoffs. It's safe to assume there were fantasy managers who fell short due to Taylor's 12.1-point Week 15 game in Denver that was most notable for the touchdown he didn't score -- the one that didn't count because Taylor dropped the ball prematurely as he crossed the goal line at the end of a 41-yard run.
Having Jonathan Taylor on a team that got eliminated last week because he dropped the ball before scoring a touchdown and watching what he's doing today is a pain that no human should endure.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 22, 2024
It didn't get any less painful for those investors this week . . .
This And That
Youth Movement At Tight End
Sixty-three years after Mike Ditka set an NFL record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end (1,076), Brock Bowers has surpassed the Pro Football Hall of Famer with a new benchmark of 1,144 yards (and counting) for rookie tight ends.
"It's pretty awesome," Bowers said after the game. "It's always been a childhood goal to play in the NFL, obviously. Then, to come in here and be able to catch as many balls as I did and get as many yards as I did is pretty shocking to me. It's pretty cool."
It wasn't just Ditka's record that Bowers shattered in the road win over the Saints. With his fifth catch of the day, Bowers broke the NFL record for most receptions by a rookie of any position, set by Puka Nacua in 2023 (105).
Later in the game, on a third-down play in the fourth quarter, Bowers hauled in another 13-yard catch to break the Raiders' single-season receptions record set by Darren Waller in 2020 (107) . . .
On Saturday, another young star at the position, Arizona's Trey McBride, recorded his first receiving touchdown of the season on his 98th catch of the campaign. His 97 receptions before his first touchdown grab of the season is now the most in NFL history for catches without a receiving touchdown. The previous high was 92, by Keyshawn Johnson in 2001.
Has McBride solidified himself as one of the best tight ends in the NFL?
According to ESPN.com's Josh Weinfuss, the third-year man has proven himself beyond a shadow of a doubt. For starters, McBride just registered his first 1,000-yard season, making him one of two tight ends, along with Bowers, to hit that mark in 2024. That alone puts McBride in elite company. But then he also is ranked among the top three tight ends in receptions (No. 1 at 104), targets, receiving yards, receiving yards per game, yards per route, targets per route run, team target share, yards after catch, and receiving first downs.
He finished with 12 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown against the Rams,
Bowers is TE1, averaging 15.5 points per game, through Week 17; McBride is TE3, with a15.4 point-per-game average . . .
The Old Guard Remains Relevant
The 49ers' George Kittle caught all eight of his targets for 112 yards in the Week 17 loss to the Lions. Kittle needed 33 yards to secure his fourth career season with at least 1,000 receiving yards. He reached the milestone in the first quarter.
It's the fourth time in Kittle's career he has achieved 1,000 yards in a single season, which places him in some elite company; he became one of only five tight ends in NFL history to accomplish that feat, joining Travis Kelce (seven times), Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski and Jason Witten (four, apiece).
Kittle's output Monday night made him TE5 for the week. He now sits at TE2 on the season with an average of 16.6 points per game.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, who caught his 77th touchdown to move into first place in franchise history, became the 15th player to reach 1,000 career receptions and just the third TE. He ended Wednesday with 1,004 career catches, putting him at 14th all-time as he surpassed former Pittsburgh Steeler Hines Ward (1,000).
Kittle sits at TE2 with a position-high 16.6-point-per-game average, while Kelce, who will likely sit out Week 18, sits at TE5 with 12.3 points per game . . .
Barkley's Chase Is Over
With the NFC East wrapped up, the Eagles will rest Saquon Barkley in the regular-season finale. The public was let in on that Wednesday when Nick Sirianni admitted, "We're gonna rest some guys" on Sunday against the New York Giants. The Eagles coach confirmed Saquon Barkley is among the group taking the afternoon off against the 3-13 Giants.
Barkley, who hit the 2,000-yard mark last Sunday, will finish 100 yards short of Dickerson at 2,005, and it's more than likely that had he played against his old team, a 12th game of over 100 yards this season was well within his range of possible outcomes.
"It's a very special record that's been standing for a very long time by a very great player," Sirianni said. "It's a team record that everybody's involved in. You weigh all those things. But at the end of the day, you just try to do what's best for the team."
Sunday was Barkley's 11th game with 100 rushing yards this season, the most by any player in their first year with a team in NFL history. He reached 2,000 yards on his final carry of the game, which came with 11:34 left in the fourth quarter.
After his RB6 finish in Week 17, Barkley stands RB1 overall with an average of 22.0 points per game, setting himself up to be the first pick overall in many a fantasy draft in 2025 . . .
The Real NFL MVP?
As Bills coach Sean McDermott reached the end of his opening statement following a 40-14 win over the New York Jets, made his position clear.
"Josh Allen continues to show why he should be the MVP," McDermott said. "And it's great to see our offense do what they've been able to do here."
With his three-touchdown performance against the Jets (two passing, one rushing), Allen extended his NFL record of consecutive seasons with 40 or more rushing and passing touchdowns to five. Only the quarterback on the other sideline, Aaron Rodgers, has more such seasons (6) in a career.
Sunday marked Allen's sixth game this season with two or more passing touchdowns and one or more rushing TDs, the most in a season in NFL history, per ESPN Research.
Allen, who is QB2 on the season with an average of 23.8 points per game, also tied Thurman Thomas' record for the most rushing touchdowns (65) in franchise history . . .
Making His Case
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson made his MVP case on Christmas -- although he shared the spotlight. The veteran quarterback and Derrick Henry combined for 234 yards rushing against the Texans, and the Ravens' defense would have recorded its first shutout since 2018 if not for Henry being tackled in the end zone for a safety.
Baltimore outgained Houston 432-210, the Ravens' second-largest margin in total yards over the past four seasons.
Jackson hit massive passes, such as a 67-yarder to Mark Andrews, the tight end's longest since his rookie year, and riddled the Texans on the ground for 87 rushing yards -- just one more than needed to become the NFL's all-time leader in the category among QBs, passing Mike Vick.
Jackson and Henry were unstoppable. Henry finished with 27 carries for 147 yards and one touchdown, while Jackson required only 15 passing attempts in the blowout, which he finished with two passing scores and a 48-yard TD on the ground.
Jackson heads into Week 18 as QB1 on the season, delivering an average of 26.0 points per game . . .
By The Numbers
- Jackson reached a maximum speed of 21.25 mph on his 48-yard touchdown run in the third quarter in Houston. According to Next Gen Stats, that's the highest top speed of Jackson's seven-year career. It is the second-fastest max speed by a quarterback this season, ranking only behind the Cardinals' Kyler Murray, who hit 21.27 mph.
- According to Next Gen Stats, Bo Nix's 51-yard TD pass to Marvin Mims Jr. in Cincinnati traveled 67.0 yards in the air, the longest completion by air distance of the season.
- According to ESPN.com's Mike Reiss, with his 36-yard touchdown strike to receiver DeMario Douglas on Sunday, Drake Maye now has three touchdown passes this season of at least 35 air yards, the most such touchdown passes by a Patriots quarterback since Brady had three in 2009.
- Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. continues to surprise with how good he has been as a rookie. He caught seven passes for 91 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee. As ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco noted, Thomas has eight games in the season in which he's had at least 60 yards and a touchdown, tying Randy Moss' all-time rookie record.
- Garrett Wilson eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the third straight season, becoming the first Jet since George Sauer (1966-1968) to accomplish that. He finished with seven catches for 66 yards and a touchdown in Week 17. As ESPN.com's Rich Cimini noted, with Davante Adams (hip) less than 100 percent, Wilson once again became the focal point of the passing attack -- although for fantasy managers, it was too little, too late.
- Raiders running back Ameer Abdullah entered the season third on the depth chart, but injuries and ineffectiveness by Zamir White, Alexander Mattison, and Sincere McCormick elevated the 10-year veteran. Abdullah responded with a career-high 115 rushing yards to become the first Raiders running back to break the century mark this season. His 17.7 fantasy points were good for an RB7 finish this week.
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
The Giants haven't appeared in this section all season -- with good reason.
But quarterback Drew Lock threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns against the Colts on Sunday. He ran for a fifth score. Lock had a career game, in part because he was willing to pass downfield to Malik Nabers more than he did in his earlier starts.
As a result, the Giants had three 30-plus-yard touchdown passes.
They had four in the first 15 games entering Sunday. Nabers had touchdown catches of 31 and 59 yards, and Darius Slayton had a 32-yard score.
It was the first time a Giants quarterback threw three such touchdown passes since Phil Simms did it in 1980.
In addition, in an otherwise lost season, Tyrone Tracy Jr.. and Nabers became the third rookie duo in NFL history to have 1,000-plus scrimmage yards in the same season Sunday, joining the Saints' Reggie Bush and Marques Colston (2006) and the Dallas Texans' Abner Haynes and Johnny Robinson (1960). . .
The Bad
Last Thursday night, we saw Seattle sneak past the Bears in a 6-3 snoozefest where nobody scored a touchdown.
What sparked Chicago's worst offensive performance of the season?
According to ESPN.com's Courtney Cronin, "Caleb Williams and the Bears offense was, in a word, awful."
Williams averaged 1.3 air yards per completion, his lowest mark of the season, and he completed only one pass for 10 or more yards downfield. This performance looked as bad as Chicago's last 3-point output against the Patriots and featured seven drives that ended in punts.
Chicago's defense put its best foot forward in holding the Seahawks to six points, but with the offense unable to match their effort, the Bears tacked on their 10th straight loss, which is tied for the longest streak in a season (2022) in franchise history . . .
Meanwhile, DK Metcalf's costly mistakes remain an issue for Seattle. In his sixth NFL season, the two-time Pro Bowler still has problems with his poise.
Metcalf shoved Tyrique Stevenson in the face three times ahead of a head butt during the first half. Then he jawed plenty with DeMarcus Walker. Metcalf, who finished with three catches for 42 yards, was flagged twice on the play, with one enforced for 15 yards and a first strike toward being ejected.
Seattle rebounded to get a field goal on the drive, but it's well past time for Metcalf to quit penalizing his squad.
As Gordon explained on NFL.com, Metcalf is an all-world wide receiver with four unnecessary roughness penalties and three unsportsmanlike in his career. Since 2019, when he entered the league, no offensive player has more unnecessary roughness flags than Metcalf, and he's tied for the most unsportsmanlike penalties with Travis Kelce, per NFL Research.
It's been an issue before, and it was an issue with his team playing for its playoff life . . .
The Ugly
Did Aaron Rodgers make history in what could've been his next-to-last game as a Jet?
Yes, but not the good kind.
Rodgers became the most-sacked quarterback in NFL history (568), passing Brady (565). He was sacked four times and also suffered the indignity of his first unnecessary roughness penalty; it occurred during the return on his second interception of the day.
It was an ugly day for the future Hall of Famer, who was pulled early in the fourth quarter and remains stuck on 499 career touchdown passes . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Even though it's Week 18 and most season-long leagues have called it a year, those in multi-week championships, or who run through the daily fantasy mean streets, or are preparing for post-season contests and tournaments, can hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
With the fantasy season essentially over, the Footballguys Daily Update podcast ended last week, and this Saturday will be my final Ask Me Anything live stream of the year. I hope to see you at 11 am ET on the Audible channel then. Stay tuned for more on our plans for the offseason, but rest assured, we've got plans and they include you.
Otherwise, I'll see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Catch Harris on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.