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Redemption!
As NFL.com's Michael Baca suggested, the Colts didn't mess around with their slim playoff chances on the line, running the ball 50 times for 335 yards to come away with a seamless win over a division rival. That 335-yard total broke the franchise's team record 299, set in Week 16 of the 1985 season.
ESPN.com's Stephen Holder noted the Titans played some abysmal run defense in this game, but he added, "The Colts' dominance on the ground was the closest thing they've shown to a true identity."
With running back Jonathan Taylor and a physical offensive line (not to mention a quarterback in Anthony Richardson, who's been more effective as a runner than a passer to this point), this is the brand of football that best suits this team.
It's safe to assume Taylor's fantasy investors agree with this.
Taylor carried the ball 29 times for 218 yards and three touchdowns. With his line clearing wide-open paths, Taylor exploded for 65- and 70-yard sprints to the end zone virtually untouched and might have had a career-best day if he hadn't rested a good portion of the second half.
Still, it was enough for Taylor to be named AFC Offensive Player of the Week on Tuesday.
It was Taylor's second career 200-yard performance behind only his career-high 253-yard game in the final week of the 2020 season. His 218 rushing yards were the second-most of his career, behind 253 yards against the Jaguars in 2020. He became the third player with 200-plus rushing yards and three touchdowns in a game over the past decade.
Taylor recorded a max speed of over 21 mph on both his explosive run touchdowns, two of his three fastest rushing speeds of the season.
This huge outing came on the heels of last Sunday's game in which Taylor committed a costly miscue, dropping the ball prematurely as he crossed the goal line on a would-be 41-yard run that would have given Indianapolis a two-touchdown lead in Denver.
The Colts lost the critical matchup in Denver, dealing a severe blow to their playoff hopes. Taylor didn't make the same mistake again this week.
Jonathan Taylor goes 65 yards for a TD and runs alllll the way into the tunnel WITH the ball just in case ? pic.twitter.com/0RKoz5eqON
— NFL on CBS ? (@NFLonCBS) December 22, 2024
"I already had predetermined in my mind, next time I'm going all the way into the tunnel," Taylor said via Joel A. Erickson of the Indianapolis Star. When Taylor came out of the tunnel, teammate Tyler Goodson tried to yank the ball from his hands, but Taylor wouldn't give it up. He didn't give anything up to the Titans defense, either.
Hopefully, It Mattered
Of course, his mistake last week was problematic for many fantasy managers.
Me watching Jonathan Taylor hold onto all his TDs this week after he ended my fantasy season by dropping one last week: pic.twitter.com/nMqMCqak4B
— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) December 22, 2024
Investors who came up short in their Week 15 meetings may well have missed out on the fantastic Week 16 performance, with Taylor finishing as RB1 overall with 39.8 points.
Only two running backs -- Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley with 46.2 in Week 12 and the Saints Alvin Kamara with 44.0 in Week 2 -- have scored more this season.
The news is also great for those who made it through the down week to enjoy the fruits of Taylor's Week 16 bonanza. He goes up against a Giants defense that just yielded 26 points to Bijan Robinson this past Sunday, and that's given up the second most points overall to the position over the last eight weeks . . .
Proof Of Concept
The Lions already knew second-year running back Jahmyr Gibbs could handle the load with David Montgomery (knee) out for the foreseeable future.
But after Sunday's 34-17 win over the Bears, a game in which Gibbs carried the ball 23 times for 109 yards (4.7 average) with a touchdown and chipped in 45 more receiving yards, there's no doubt Gibbs can be a No. 1 back when needed.
Tim Twentyman of the team's official website explained, "It's been great for Gibbs, Montgomery, and this offense that they've been able to share the load this year as they both bring so much to the table."
But with Montgomery nursing a knee injury that will keep him out at least until the playoffs, Gibbs stepped in, and Detroit's offense didn't miss a beat.
"We always knew," quarterback Jared Goff said. "Obviously, showed it today. I thought he ran great. I thought he saw it great. I thought he caught it out of the backfield great. He did a hell of a job."
With 154 on Sunday, Gibbs has produced 100 or more scrimmage yards in nine games this season, the most by a Lions running back since Barry Sanders (16) in 1997. He's also topped 1,500 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns in the season, joining Sanders (1990-91) and Billy Sims (1980-81) as the only running backs in team history to accomplish that feat.
Gibbs finished the week as RB7 with 25.4 points. He's RB2 on the season, averaging 19.5 points per game . . .
What's Plan B?
According to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, Gibbs touched the ball 20 times in the first half alone, recording 17 carries and three receptions. He was on the field for all 15 snaps on the first two drives and 30 of the Lions' first 34 offensive snaps on the first five drives, all ending with scores.
After that point, the Lions started rotating Gibbs out more frequently.
Craig Reynolds, the third-string running back all season, was the first backup on the field. Jermar Jefferson was elevated from the practice squad for this game and played some snaps. Fourth-round rookie Sione Vaki was used mainly for the two-minute drill to end the first half.
Gibbs remains an obvious must-start, but if he were to suffer an injury, Jahnke believes the evidence points to Detroit going with a committee approach to replace him . . .
The Rest Of The Story
While Gibbs was fantastic, he wasn't alone in earning that distinction in Chicago.
Goff wasn't fazed by the loss to Buffalo or Detroit's banged-up roster. Instead, he bounced back spectacularly, finishing 23-of-32 with 336 passing yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He also set a career-high mark for passing touchdowns in a season (33) in the win.
Goff's 82-yard touchdown to Jameson Williams was the longest scrimmage play for the Lions since Matthew Stafford's 87-yard completion to Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson in Week 8, 2013 versus Dallas.
Williams hauled in 5 of 7 targets for career-highs in receiving yards (143) and receiving yards over expected (+75) against the Bears. He recorded 67 yards after the catch on the day, the second-most in a game of his career.
Williams has averaged 8.9 yards after the catch per reception this season, the second-most among wide receivers with at least 40 targets (behind only Buffalo's Keon Coleman).
He's 110 yards away from hitting the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the first time in his NFL career.
As ESPN.com's Eric Woodyard reminded readers, in last year's NFC title game against the 49ers, Williams delivered a rushing and receiving touchdown . . .
Successful Audition?
Sources confirmed to ESPN.com's Courtney Cronin that Ben Johnson, the Lions' offensive coordinator, is expected to interview for the Bears' head coaching vacancy. Detroit put up 400-plus yards of offense for a third time in four games and jumped out to an early 20-0 lead.
Conversely, Johnson, who praised quarterback Caleb Williams for how the ball "whistles" when he throws it, got a good look at a strong performance from the rookie.
Williams became the first rookie in franchise history to pass for 3,000 yards and threw the longest touchdown pass of his career, a 45-yarder to receiver Keenan Allen.
Allen crossed 100 receiving yards (141 total) for the first time this season after seeing double-digit targets (13) for the fifth time. The 32-year-old veteran scored the longest touchdown of his career and needs two more TD catches to set a single-season career-high (nine) . . .
Somebody Is Cooking
As Rochester Democrat and Chronicle staffer Sal Maiorana noted, the Bills weren't ready to admit they dodged a bullet Sunday afternoon in their way-too-close-for-comfort 24-21 victory over the New England Patriots, but it's an accurate description.
Josh Allen struggled, completing just 16 of 29 for 154 yards with a TD and interception.
Amari Cooper was once again invisible, catching just one pass. Dalton Kincaid's team-high four catches went for a paltry 15 yards. The usually reliable Khalil Shakir caught just two of six targets for 22 yards and nearly lost a fumble.
It was a somewhat alarming performance against a defense that should have had no business being as stingy as it was. It's tough to complain about an offense that scored 30 points in eight straight games, but as Maiorana suggested, the Bills need to get some things worked out, particularly Cooper's role.
But there's no question who the leader of the pack was against the Patriots.
The Bills got an electric performance from running back James Cook, who totaled 100 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries and led the team in receiving with 26 yards and a receiving touchdown.
In fantasy parlance, "touchdown dependent" is often used as a pejorative. But in this case, it's not.
Because Cook scores a lot of touchdowns.
His two scores in Sunday's win bring Cook's total to 16 rushing and receiving touchdowns this season, tied for most among all players in the NFL (with Bengals wideout Ja'Marr Chase). The third-year man also moved into second place in Bills history for most scores in a single season.
And even with Allen being a constant threat to steal carries in goal-line situations, Cook continued to prove he's a threat to score from anywhere on the field, as he demonstrated with a 46-yard touchdown run in the second quarter. It marked his fourth rushing TD of 40-plus yards this season, the most in a single season by a Bills running back.
"He's been so good for us this year and running the ball extremely hard. That was huge for us," Allen said.
Cook surpassed 100 rushing yards for the second straight game. He's the first Bills player to do so since Allen in 2018 and the first Bills running back since LeSean McCoy in 2016. The last Bills running back to rush for 100 yards or more against the Patriots was Frank Gore Jr. in Week 4, 2019.
Over his last three games, Cook has totaled 205 rushing yards on 25 carries (8.2 yards per carry), three rushing touchdowns, 54 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.
He's been RB7 over that three-game span, averaging 19.6 points per game; he's RB10 on the season with a 17.6-point average. This week's opponent, the Jets, have allowed six different backs to score 17 or more points this season . . .
This And That
No Doubting Thomas
Is wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. the Jaguars' best player?
ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco contends you'd be hard to argue otherwise.
With nine catches for 132 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders in Week 16, Thomas recorded his seventh game with 60-plus receiving yards and at least one receiving touchdown. Only Pro Football Hall of Famer Randy Moss has had more such games (eight) as a rookie in the Super Bowl era.
In addition to becoming the first rookie receiver in Jaguars history to surpass 1,000 yards, he's just the third player drafted by the team to surpass 1,000 yards.
Offensive coordinator Press Taylor said this week that Thomas' football IQ is so high he learned all three receiver spots and can operate at a high level at each.
With Christian Kirk (collarbone), Gabe Davis (knee), and tight end Evan Engram (shoulder) out with injuries, the Jaguars needed Thomas to step up his production, and he has.
He had 100-yard games the past two weeks and 27 catches in the past three games.
Thomas is WR4 over that three-game span, averaging a whopping 25.8 points per game. He's WR7 on the season.
This is where I remind you that Thomas was drafted as WR43 heading into the season with a seventh-round Average Draft Position (ADP).
For comparison, Arizona's Marvin Harrison Jr. was WR9 with a second-round ADP; the Giants' Malik Nabers was WR22, selected with the 39th pick overall.
Kansas City's Xavier Worthy (WR38, pick 77), Chicago's Rome Odunze (WR39, pick 83), and the Chargers' Ladd McConkey (WR42, pick 90) were all drafted ahead of Thomas.
Nabers is currently WR10, McConkey is WR17, Harrison is WR35, Worthy is WR36, and Odunze is WR43 . . .
A Legend In The Making
As NFL.com's Nick Shook suggested, if we've learned anything this season, Philadelphia's defense will cause problems for most opponents, and the same was true for Jayden Daniels and Washington on Sunday.
Look no further than their five turnovers for proof.
However, a key difference emerged in the latter stages of this game, which was won almost solely because of the talents possessed by Daniels.
He lit a fire under this offense, tossing a beautiful 32-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin, extending the play to find Olamide Zaccheaus for a score, then outdoing himself by following the same formula to find Zaccheaus again for a 49-yard catch-and-run score.
His best moment, however, came with the game on the line.
Daniels led a nine-play, 57-yard drive in the game's final two minutes, pushing the Commanders down the field and finishing it with what Shook characterized as a "courageous throw fired into an open window over the middle before his receiver had even entered it." Shook added that it takes trust, conviction, and an NFL-caliber arm to accomplish, which Daniels demonstrated he has -- plus enough mental toughness to overcome earlier mistakes and redeem himself and the Commanders.
Shook added: "He's a rare talent in this game."
In fact, Daniels became the third quarterback to have five-plus passing touchdowns and 75-plus rushing yards in a single game in NFL history.
Did Sunday's win lock up Rookie of the Year honors for Daniels?
According to ESPN.com's John Keim, it should -- by a large margin.
It's hard to imagine a rookie offensive player doing more than Daniels, who started strong yet is doing more down the stretch. He has 22 touchdown passes, with the five on Sunday giving him nine over the past three games. He also rushed for 82 of the Commanders' 114 yards Sunday . . .
Decent Debut
How did Michael Penix Jr. do in his first career start?
According to NFL.com's Kevin Patra, Penix displayed an as-advertised big arm, was able to put it on the mark, and didn't make errors as the Falcons closed out with a 34-7 win over the Giants.
As ESPN.com's Marc Raimondi noted, it was only the second time a Falcons quarterback has led his team to a double-digit win in his first NFL start -- Matt Ryan did it in 2008. And while Penix isn't going to make anybody forget Ryan, who went on to be perhaps the greatest player in franchise history, the newcomer got off on the right foot.
Coming in with 45 college starts, the moment wasn't too big for Penix, who was poised and confident.
His pocket mobility differed starkly from what the Falcons dealt with under Kirk Cousins. Penix took zero sacks despite being pressured 14 times.
The numbers aren't eye-popping, generating 202 yards on 18-of-27 passing (66.7 percent) with an interception and no touchdown tosses.
A previously-restricted offense opened up under the rookie from the start.
Penix aggressively targeted receivers downfield in the first half, throwing over 10 air yards on 43.8 percent of his attempts -- almost 10 percent more often than Cousins (34.5 percent), per Next Gen Stats. Patra added it's a small sample size, but this passing offense desperately needed to do more than the dink-and-dunk operation it'd become.
The pick wasn't on the rookie, with Kyle Pitts flubbing an easy grab into a defender's hands.
The defense and running back Bijan Robinson were the stars Sunday, but the quarterback's arm talent, poise, and processing were encouraging. It was against the 2-13 Giants, yet Atlanta's offense looked much better than the past five games with Cousins.
And that's a plus for fantasy managers invested in the long-term value of all involved in this offense . . .
Young Continues To Impress
Will Bryce Young be the Panthers' starting quarterback going into next season? According to ESPN.com's David Newton, "One hundred percent."
Head coach Dave Canales was impressed by how Young handled himself following a four-turnover game against Dallas in Week 15, and he confirmed before Sunday's game that Young was his guy for the rest of this season.
The top pick of the 2023 draft came through with an impressive performance in beating the Cardinals (two touchdown passes and one rushing score) and proved that he can deliver at a high level both in NFL terms and this past week, from a fantasy perspective.
Young was QB2 for Week 16, with his 27.1 points second only to Daniels' 34.4.
This week, Young goes up against a Tampa Bay defense that just gave up 226 passing yards to Cowboys QB Cooper Rush -- in the first half -- Sunday night and yielded 23.6 points to Young in Week 13.
Since Week 12, Young has been QB9 with an average of 19.2 points per game. He'll be a player to watch next season . . .
Who's No. 1?
Do the Dolphins have a new No. 1 receiver? As Marcel Louis-Jacques acknowledged, Tyreek Hill is Miami's leader in both targets (108) and receiving yards (834), but tight end Jonnu Smith and running back De'Von Achane are tied for the team lead with 76 receptions. Since Week 12, Smith and Hill have been tied for the most targets on the team, with 43 apiece. With two games left, Smith is just 32 yards behind Hill for that yardage lead . . .
Don't look now, but Worthy is emerging as the Chiefs' most valuable receiver. They went to the speedy rookie 11 times as a receiver and three times as a ball carrier in last Saturday's win over the Texans. Worthy delivered seven catches, 65 yards, one touchdown as a receiver, and 10 rushing yards. The Chiefs had timely contributions from other receivers, most notably Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. But as ESPN.com's Adam Teicher suggested, Worthy was their go-to receiver. His fantasy numbers bear that out: Over the last five games, Worthy hasn't finished lower than WR42; he has three weeks inside the top 25; he has two games -- Weeks 15 and 16 -- inside the top 20 with WR16 and WR12 finishes, respectively . . .
Despite his positional classification, Brock Bowers is the de facto WR1 in Las Vegas and filled that role against the Jaguars in Week 16. The first-round pick continued his masterful rookie season, catching 11 of his 13 targets for 99 yards. He was shut out of the end zone, but that didn't stop him from creeping closer toward Mike Ditka's record for the most receiving yards by a rookie tight end in NFL history. Bowers became the third rookie tight end in league history to have a 1,000-yard receiving season. He has 101 catches on the season for 1,067 yards, which pulled him within nine yards of Ditka's 1,076 yards.
Ten more will get it done, and Bowers has two games to do so. He's already the first rookie tight end to snag 100 receptions. He has four receiving touchdowns to his name and many, many more in his future . . .
By The Numbers
Ravens running back Derrick Henry racked up 162 rushing yards in Baltimore's win over Pittsburgh on Saturday, recording his first career 100-yard game against the Steelers and redeeming himself from his 65-yard performance last month in Pittsburgh. It had been a tough stretch for Henry, who had been held under 70 yards rushing in three of his previous five games.
Now, Henry is in an elite group with his fourth 1,500-yard rushing season, which trails only Sanders (who had five). We'll see if he can build on that momentum against the Texans on Christmas Day . . .
Barkley rushed for 109 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the first quarter against the Commanders, highlighted by a 68-yard touchdown run down the left sideline. He is the first player with 100-plus rushing yards and two-plus rushing touchdowns in an opening quarter since the Vikings' Adrian Peterson in Week 14 of 2012. Peterson won MVP that season . . .
Meanwhile, Barkley has 1,838 rushing yards this season. Eric Dickerson set the NFL record of 2,105 rushing yards in 1984, so Barkley needs to total 268 rushing yards in the Eagles' final two games to break the record. Barkley has a shot to get there, given that the Eagles' final two opponents, the Cowboys and Giants, are two of the worst run defenses in the NFL -- but that assumes Barkley will play in both games.
However, as Profootballtalk.com notes, a complicating factor is that the Eagles might be locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs heading into the season finale against the Giants. In that scenario, Barkley might rest in Week 18 . . .
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow became the first player in NFL history to have 250-plus passing yards and three-plus passing touchdowns in seven consecutive games . . .
On a related note, Burrow's top target, Chase, now has 1,510 receiving yards this season, a new franchise record. Chase broke his previous mark of 1,455 yards from his rookie season in 2021 . . .
Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans, who has an NFL-record 10 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career, posted five catches for 69 yards in Dallas on Sunday. With two games remaining, Evans needs 182 yards (91 yards per game) to continue his historic streak.
Achane became the first player to have a game with 120-plus rushing yards and 70-plus receiving yards since Christian McCaffrey in Week 17, 2022 at Las Vegas . . .
Stafford targeted receivers behind the line of scrimmage on 10 of his 19 pass attempts (52.6 percent) in the Rams' Week 16 win over the Jets, the highest rate by any quarterback this season (with a minimum five attempts) . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
I must acknowledge that Deebo Samuel Sr. finally has a good game.
The versatile and athletic wideout has struggled much of the year but finally went over the 100-yard mark against the Dolphins on Sunday. Samuel generated 96 yards receiving on seven catches with a TD and added 25 rushing yards on five carries. The 121 scrimmage yards were the most for Samuel this season.
It was the first time he's been over the 100-scrimmage-yards mark since Week 6 -- first time over 35 yards since Week 10.
It was also Samuel's best fantasy finish -- he was WR5 with 25.1 points -- all season. He currently sits at WR41 on the year . . .
The Bad
How does an offense with so much talent continue to underachieve?
The Jets opened with a 99-yard touchdown drive. They didn't punt once and still managed only nine points -- yet another reminder that the Aaron Rodgers-led offense has been a major bust. As ESPN.com's Rich Cimini noted, Rodgers missed some open receivers and lost a fumble deep in Jets territory, every lineman committed at least one penalty, the red-zone efficiency was terrible (1-for-3), and receiver Allen Lazard dropped two passes.
The end result was their sixth loss despite holding a fourth-quarter lead (a league-high).
Garrett Wilson, already unhappy with the state of the offense, was targeted only three times over the first 55 minutes. Interestingly, he has been a non-factor for the past six quarters, dating back to his sideline outburst last week in Jacksonville.
Davante Adams continued to get the bulk of the targets. Wilson finished with six catches for 54 yards. He was WR39 for the week, but that's not as bad as we've seen over the last month.
Wilson was WR49 in Week 13 and WR60 in Week 11 . . .
The Ugly
The Giants have lost their past two games by a combined 48 points against the Falcons and Ravens. They will be heavy underdogs at home against the Colts and on the road against the Eagles.
Nothing suggests their season won't end with 12 straight losses.
It might not be the worst thing, given the situation. According to ESPN Analytics, they came into Sunday with a 37 percent chance for the first overall pick. Losing out will only help those odds.
As it stands now, Sunday was a franchise-record 10th straight loss for the Giants. Their last victory was on Oct. 6 in Seattle. They haven't even been competitive in a good chunk of games. They have lost three of their past five games by more than 20 points, contrary to general manager Joe Schoen's bye week claim they were close to winning games.
They aren't getting much help from their quarterbacks.
As ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan noted, after throwing two pick-sixes against the Falcons, Drew Lock, the latest starter, has thrown three pick-sixes in three starts.
That is the second-most pick-sixes this season despite Lock's limited playing time in the Giants' offense. Only Tennessee's Will Levis (four) has tossed more.
With Lock expected to start against the Colts this week, it could get even uglier . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. I'd like to wish you all Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah! Also, happy Fantasy Championship Weekend! Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, I'll see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
