Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes
We have a whole batch of quarterback changes heading into a week of fantasy playoff action. Can any of them help you? Let's sort it out . . .
A New Era In Atlanta
Michael Penix Jr.. is the new starting quarterback of the Atlanta Falcons, and Kirk Cousins is heading to the bench, head coach Raheem Morris announced Tuesday night.
"After review we have made the decision Michael Penix Jr. will be the Atlanta Falcons starting quarterback moving forward," Morris said in a statement released by the team. "This was a football decision and we are fully focused on preparing the team for Sunday's game against the New York Giants."
That "moving forward" is worth noting.
The Falcons beat the Las Vegas Raiders 15-9 on Monday night to snap a four-game losing streak. But Cousins was just 11-of-17 passing for 112 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He has nine interceptions and just one touchdown pass in his past five games. For the season, the 36-year-old Cousins completed 64.7 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and a league-high 16 interceptions. He also had 12 fumbles, tied for most in the NFL with Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Cousins currently sits as fantasy's QB20 on the year. But he's been QB33 over his five-game skid, averaging just 5.8 points per game.
In related news, the Falcons' receiving assets have struggled.
Drake London has been WR33 over the last five games with a touchdown against the Raiders offering a small measure of relief to his fantasy investors.
After that, nobody's been startable.
Ray-Ray McCloud III was WR48 over that span, averaging 11.1 points per game -- which is far better than teammate Darnell Mooney, who's been WR64 with a meager 7.5 points per game.
If you're wondering how precipitous a fall it's been for the top-two options, London was WR4 overall over the first 10 games this year while Mooney was WR8 over that stretch.
Currently sitting at TE14 overall, Kyle Pitts has been a disappointment again this season. But he's been downright unplayable during Cousins' swoon. The former first-round pick is TE52 over the last five games, averaging 2.8 points per game.
It's safe to say fantasy managers invested in any of those players are open to change.
After all, Penix led Washington to the national championship game last season before the Falcons selected him at No. 8 in April's NFL draft. He completed 65.4 percent of his passes with 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in his final year with the Huskies, and his 4,903 passing yards were the most in the nation.
What Should We Expect Here?
According to Footballguy and Rookie Scouting Portfolio author Matt Waldman, "Penix is a strong fit for Atlanta's passing attack because of his mobility, skill with off-platform placement, and bold vertical game."
In his Gutcheck No. 627, published in August, Waldman suggested that once Penix moved into the starting lineup, "Atlanta will finally have a quarterback with the superpowers of confidence and placement with vertical targets. This complements London's and Pitts' superpowers: Skill at winning the football in contested scenarios -- something that has been dormant in their games."
Now that Penix is in the lineup, Waldman revisited the situation in this week's Gutcheck. What's the prognosis? Waldman believes we might see more interceptions and fumbles. He contends there could be more tipped balls and dropped passes as teammates adjust to the rookie's left-handed delivery.
Waldman also expects more touchdowns, big plays, passing yards, and opportunities from off-script plays . . .
How Should You React?
While nobody should be forcing Penix into lineups in 12-team, 1-QB leagues, he wouldn't be a total outlier. Our initial Footballguys projections for Penix against a Giants defense that's given up the eighth-most fantasy points to the position this season -- and that just gave up five touchdown passes to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week -- is QB14.
Optimistic but by no means unrealistic.
Whatever the case, London, Mooney, and Pitts investors eagerly await . . .
Giants Turn Back To Lock
The Falcons are making a quarterback change for Sunday's game against the Giants, and the Giants will also make one.
On Wednesday, head coach Brian Daboll said the team plans to start Drew Lock in Atlanta.
The Giants haven't settled on a starter since benching Daniel Jones last month. As ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan reminded readers, New York surprisingly turned to Tommy DeVito, their third-stringer all season up to that point, for a Nov. 24 blowout loss to the Buccaneers. Jones was released before that game and eventually signed with the Vikings.
But DeVito injured his forearm against the Bucs and missed a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Cowboys, opening the door for Lock to start two games before the heel injury forced New York to turn back to DeVito last Sunday against the Ravens. DeVito was knocked out of the game after going 10-of-13 passing for 68 yards in the first half behind a tattered offensive line.
Veteran Tim Boyle finished Sunday's loss, throwing the Giants' first touchdown pass since Jones on Nov. 3. Boyle went 12-of-24 passing for 123 yards with a touchdown and interception in the second half against Baltimore.
Lock was 42-of-81 for 405 yards and two interceptions in his two previous starts. The Giants lost both of those games, and they've lost nine straight overall, so their quarterback isn't going to be a difference-maker, and that probably extends to those invested in fantasy assets here.
Even if you view Tyrone Tracy Jr. as a viable starter, there's only one must-start on New York's roster: Malik Nabers.
With the Giants rotating through four different triggermen this season, the rookie has proven to be quarterback-proof. Nabers currently sits at WR10 on the season -- despite missing two games to injury because . . .
Volume Matters
As Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason noted this week, Nabers had a 41.2 percent target share against the Ravens this past Sunday, playing with DeVito and Boyle. He's now hit the 40 percent mark four times this year.
No other wide receiver has done it more than twice . . .
Rudolph To Guide The Titans' Offense
The Titans have benched starting quarterback Will Levis after 11 games and two wins this season. Mason Rudolph will start Sunday's game against the Colts.
Callahan pulled Levis in Sunday's loss to the Bengals after the second-year man threw his third interception in the third quarter. Bengals safety Geno Stone took the pick back for a touchdown that put Cincinnati up 31-14 on their way to a 37-27 win.
After the game, head coach Brian Callahan (demonstrating a remarkable grasp of the obvious) said Sunday "wasn't Levis' day," so he made the move to Rudolph because "you want to give those guys that are fighting the feeling that they've got a chance in that game."
That will carry over, but in announcing the move, Callahan said he still believes in Levis' future as an NFL quarterback.
Levis still believes, too.
"I still believe that I can be a franchise quarterback for this team," Levis said Wednesday. "I have the utmost confidence in myself and my ability to lead any team in this league."
The Titans made Levis a second-round pick in 2023, and Callahan was hired to try to turn him into a franchise quarterback. Instead, the Titans still have questions about their long-term answer at the position.
Fantasy managers have no question. Levis had negative-2.4 fantasy points when he left.
Bigger picture, Levis has thrown 12 interceptions this season, tied for the fourth most in the NFL. His four interceptions returned for a touchdown are the most by any quarterback this season. He has passed for 1,916 yards with 12 touchdowns to go with his 12 interceptions.
Rudolph, who made four starts for the Titans this season while Levis was out because of a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder, has passed for 1,015 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions.
From a fantasy perspective, this seems like a push for the supporting cast . . .
Another Turnover In Cleveland
As has been the case throughout his NFL career, Jameis Winston's turnover issues cost him another job. In his Wednesday press conference, browns head coach Kevin Stefanski confirmed that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start at quarterback against the Bengals on Sunday.
This news comes as no surprise. Winston was benched after throwing three interceptions during Sunday's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
If this is the end of Winston in Cleveland, he will have completed 61.1 percent of his pass attempts for 2,121 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He also scored a touchdown on the ground. Winston led the Browns to a 2-5 record in games he started.
Making this change now is a wise decision for Cleveland. They need to see what kind of player they have in Thompson-Robinson.
The young quarterback has shown flashes of potential. But he's had a rough season so far this year, playing in four games and completing just 44.1 percent of his passes for 100 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. Last season, Thompson-Robinson started three games as a rookie, completing 53.6 percent of his passes for 440 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions.
Fantasy investors with stakes in Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, and other receiving assets here should carefully assess all options this week, even in a favorable matchup against the Bengals.
In fact, with Nick Chubb suffering a season-ending broken foot against the Chiefs, the change of interest to fantasy managers will be Jerome Ford moving back as the starting halfback.
Ford recorded 104 scrimmage yards against the Chiefs, including a 62-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. It marked Ford's first 100-yard game this season and his first since Week 7 of the 2023 season.
This week, Ford should benefit from a very favorable matchup; no team in the league has given up more fantasy points per game to the running back position over the past four weeks than the Bengals.
As ESPN's Dan Graziano suggested, "With the Browns switching from Winston to Thompson-Robinson, you have to expect the run game to be paramount for them this week.
"Ford could be in for a huge game . . ."
Possible Change?
After Patrick Mahomes II suffered a high-ankle sprain during Sunday's win over the Browns, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid told reporters on Tuesday that Mahomes will play if he's able.
For his part, Mahomes said he would do what he could to be available for Saturday's matchup against the Texans.
"That's the reason why you play this game, is to push to play. So I'll get to work in practice and try to push it to see where I can get to," Mahomes said in his Tuesday news conference.
That said, Mahomes isn't looking to put the team's long-term goals at risk. "I'm not going to put our team in a bad position. So, if I feel like I can play and go out there and win a football game, I'll play. And if I don't feel like that's the best-case scenario, I'll let guys like Carson Wentz play. I mean, he's a guy that's won in this league as well. So, it's just about pushing it this week, seeing where I'm at, and making the best decision then."
Mahomes noted that this injury isn't as bad as the one he sustained during the 2022 divisional round against the Jaguars, with his ankle responding better faster this time around. But he added that he wants to be able to move, protect himself, and not limit the game plan if he plays against Houston this weekend.
Mahomes has been a full participant in practice each of the last two days, and Chiefs Digest's Matt Derrick asked the pertinent questions:
Patrick Mahomes II is a full participant for the second straight day.
— Matt Derrick (@mattderrick) December 18, 2024
Why would your starting QB be a full participant if your backup is going to start? He wouldn’t, right? https://t.co/tWmbSLiCwq
Wentz is standing, and we'll all find out the answer soon enough . . .
This And That
Getting Gibbs-y With It
The season-ending knee injury David Montgomery suffered against the Bills will thrust Jahmyr Gibbs into a potential workhorse role for the playoff-bound Lions.
"Yeah, we've got a lot of confidence in Gibbs," head coach Dan Campbell told reporters on Monday. "He brings the explosive element, he's getting better in the pass game, and then you see what he's able to do in the run game, so we have a ton of confidence."
In three games Montgomery missed in 2023, Gibbs took 54 of 78 running back carries.
As NFL.com's Kevin Patra suggested, it's an instructive glance at what to expect the Lions to do moving forward despite the small sample size that it doesn't account for Gibbs' already increased workload in 2024, and each of those was a double-digit game.
The Lions turned to Craig Reynolds as their No. 3 back last season, and he could be the next man up, particularly in goal line and short yardage situations. The wild card could be rookie Sione Vaki, but even with Campbell suggesting the team must be cognizant of not overworking Gibbs, the most likely outcome here is fantasy investors get a bump in his workload when we need it most.
Gibbs is projected to be RB1 overall this week . . .
Conner Keeps On Keeping On
Cardinals running back James Conner maximized the few opportunities he saw on Sunday, 110 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries as Arizona rolled past the New England Patriots 30-17.
How Conner did it was still impressive, however, consistently juking Patriots defenders behind the line of scrimmage to accumulate positive yards and rattling off big plays when given ample blocking, like he did on a 53-yard rumble in the first quarter. He also had five catches for 28 yards.
According to NFL.com's Michael Baca, in games like this, where Kyler Murray has seen better days passing the ball, the Cardinals relied on their do-it-all RB to end a three-game skid and keep their slim playoff hopes alive, and fantasy investors benefited.
Conner finished the week as RB1 overall with 30.8 points.
Expecting more of the same this week, when they head to Carolina to take on a Panthers defense that's giving up the most fantasy points per game to the position, is plenty reasonable . . .
Dowdle Delivers Again
The Cowboys racked up 410 yards of offense against the Carolina Panthers, including 211 on the ground, as Rico Dowdle powered his way for 149 rushing yards on 25 carries, averaging 6.0 yards per tote.
Dowdle's runs kept the Cowboys in good down and distances for Cooper Rush.
According to Patra, it's not a coincidence that after Dallas started leaning on Dowdle, the offense became more consistent. Outside of a fumble late in the second quarter that briefly gave Carolina life, Rush guided the Cowboys' offense against an overmatched Panthers defense. When he needed a play, Rush looked to CeeDee Lamb. The star wideout generated 116 of Rush's 214 passing yards.
But Dowdle, who was drafted as RB42 in the 11th round this summer, is the story here for fantasy managers as he became the first undrafted player with three straight 100-plus rushing-yard games since Arian Foster, Weeks 5-8, 2014 . . .
Lamb Not Messing Around, Either
On Sunday, Lamb crossed the 1,000-yard barrier for the fourth straight season. Only one other receiver in franchise history has done that -- Michael Irvin.
And with 489 catches, Lamb trails only Michael Thomas (510) for the most receptions in a player's first five seasons. With 21 more, Lamb will tie Thomas; with 22 more, Lamb will hold the all-time record . . .
Worth The Wait?
What took so long for Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to return to old times?
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams were electric in Sunday's win over the Jaguars, conjuring up memories of their glory days in Green Bay. After getting shut out in the first half, Adams finished with nine catches for 198 yards and two touchdowns, including a 71-yard score.
He was WR1 for the week with 40.8 points.
Rodgers passed for 289 yards and three touchdowns as the Jets finally pulled out a game in the fourth quarter.
It was Adams' seventh career game with 150-plus receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns, which trails only Tyreek Hill (eight) and Jerry Rice (17) in the Super Bowl Era.
As ESPN.com's Rich Cimini noted, this is what the Jets had in mind when they traded for Adams in October. Unfortunately, it took too long because the season was toast weeks ago . . .
Further Evidence
I've long advocated not letting less-than-ideal quarterback situations scare fantasy managers off great wide receivers.
Apparently, Jaguars rookie Brian Thomas Jr. is great.
Without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence or trusty tight end Evan Engram, Jacksonville's offense took a predictable approach: Get the ball to Thomas.
The rookie touched the ball four times during the team's opening possession, which he put the exclamation point on with a touchdown grab. He also set the franchise record for receiving yards by a rookie (956) on that drive.
Thomas accumulated 88 of his 105 receiving yards after the catch; nine of his 10 receptions took place on open targets (with 3-plus yards of separation).
He became the sixth rookie (and the seventh player overall) in the Super Bowl era with 10-plus catches, 100-plus receiving yards, and two touchdowns in a single game.
Thomas finished as WR4 on the week with 32.5 points.
And he did it with Mac Jones as his quarterback . . .
Old Vs. New
Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans ended up with game-highs of nine receptions, 159 yards, and two touchdowns on 11 targets in a win over the Chargers on Sunday.
It was Evans' 23rd career game with multiple receiving touchdowns, the fifth most by a player with a single team in NFL history. He's behind only Hall of Fame company in Cris Carter (25), Don Hutson (28), Marvin Harrison Jr. (29), and Rice (49).
It was also Evans' seventh career game with 150-plus receiving yards and multiple receiving TDs, which is fourth-most in NFL history, trailing only Rice (17), Don Maynard, and Hill (8 each).
Meanwhile, Evans' rookie teammate Jalen McMillan is rolling, too.
The newcomer has nine catches for 134 yards and three touchdowns on 13 targets since Week 14. As Zachariason noted, McMillan has seen his two highest target shares of the season in those games, with 25 and 23 percent.
He's scored 21.9 and 18.5 fantasy points in those games . . .
New Vs. Old
As Profootballtalk.com noted this week, one of the NFL's oldest records belongs to Mike Ditka, who, as a Bears rookie tight end in 1961, gained 1,076 receiving yards. Even 63 years later, in a league with much more sophisticated passing offenses, rules favoring receivers, and longer seasons, no rookie tight end has ever matched Ditka's yardage total.
Through 14 games this season, Raiders rookie tight end Brock Bowers has 968 receiving yards, which puts him on pace for 1,175 receiving yards in a 17-game season.
Bowers will break Ditka's record in two weeks at his current pace.
Bowers, who is TE1 on the season, already broke the rookie tight end receptions record, which was set by Detroit's Sam LaPorta last year. LaPorta had 86 catches in 2023; Bowers has 90 catches so far this year . . .
By The Numbers
Sunday marked Joe Burrow's sixth straight game with three-plus passing touchdowns. Only Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, and Peyton Manning have recorded longer streaks in NFL history . . .
Terry McLaurin is the first Commanders wide receiver to have 10-plus receiving touchdowns in a season since Gary Clark in 1991 (10); Tight end Jordan Reed (11 in 2015) is the only other Washington player with 10-plus receiving TDs since 1991 . . .
Ravens wideout Rashod Bateman continued his breakout season with the first multiple-touchdown game of his four-year career, catching touchdown passes of 49 and 20 yards. Bateman, the team's 2021 first-round pick, now has six touchdown catches in 14 games after totaling four in his first three seasons (34 games) . . .
Cardinals TE Trey McBride, who had nine receptions for 87 yards on Sunday, has both the most receptions (86) and most receiving yards (963) in a season without a touchdown . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
In both my In and Out: Week 15 Edition and last week's Polarizing Players, I dialed back expectations for Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and the Eagles' passing attack.
It wasn't about them -- at least not entirely. Much of it had to do with a tough matchup against the Steelers.
However, Philadelphia also went into the game last in the NFL in passing attempts (328) and 31st in passing yards (2,348). Hurts had attempted more than 25 passes once in the previous nine games and hadn't topped 30 throws during that stretch. He had one 300-yard passing game all season.
He still only has one 300-yard passing game, but I also have egg on my face after Hurts went 25-of-32 for 290 yards while rekindling the fantasy fortunes of both Brown and DeVonta Smith. Hurts went 12-of-13 in the first half, which was good for a 92 percent completion percentage. That is his highest in any half of his career.
Meanwhile, Brown had more receiving yards in the first quarter (48) than he had all of Week 14 against the Panthers (43).
Brown caught eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown on the day; Smith had 11 catches for 109 yards and another score.
Hurts finished the day as QB4 with 30.1 points. Smith was WR5 with 28 points and Brown was WR8 with 25.
And I got a valuable reminder. Avoid fading high-end talent -- even in the toughest of matchups . . .
The Bad
It would be easy to go after Chuba Hubbard here.
Dallas had the third-worst run defense (141.9 yards per game), and Hubbard ranked sixth in rushing (1,011 yards) entering the game.
He got 10 carries for 32 yards and finished as RB33 on the day.
Of course, Saquon Barkley wasn't much better on a day he missed time with an unspecified injury -- and with the Eagles leaning into the passing attack.
Barkley was RB31 on the day.
Still, if we're looking for bad(der), we must go back to last Thursday.
That's when Rams receiver Cooper Kupp was targeted three times but did not record a reception against the San Francisco 49ers.
First game without a catch for Cooper Kupp since 2019...
— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) December 13, 2024
Just in time for week one of the fantasy playoffs ? pic.twitter.com/qTqXEBI0n8
Kupp has been a liability in lineups for the last two weeks, but his ceiling is still too high to put on the bench against the Jets this week -- if you survived his goose egg.
The Ugly
The 31-13 final score might lead you to believe Indianapolis was vastly outmatched in Denver on Sunday, but the Colts led from their opening drive until a minute into the fourth quarter.
They had multiple chances to take control while Denver struggled with turnovers, but the Colts couldn't get out of their own way, and the game turned on a handful of horrible errors.
There was coach Shane Steichen's bad double-pass play call that resulted in Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto stepping in front of Anthony Richardson to snatch the ball before running 50 yards for a touchdown.
Nick Bonitto is tied for 2nd in the NFL in sacks...
— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2024
And now has TWO pick-6s on the season @nikkkkbonitto pic.twitter.com/G9ukoet08U
Their best opportunity was blown when running back Jonathan Taylor let go of the ball before he crossed the goal line on a 41-yard run early in the third quarter.
JONATHAN TAYLOR DROPPED THE BALL BEFORE THE END ZONE ?
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) December 15, 2024
A 41-yard score wiped out.
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/Eq81jXOg7b
The Broncos scored the final 24 points of the game after that mistake.
Richardson was again abysmal through the air with a 36.3 passer rating and 44.7 completion percentage. He threw one bad interception before Taylor's gaffe and another after. Wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr also fumbled one snap after his defense, which played well, forced a turnover.
everyone has seen the Jonathan Taylor mental gaffe
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 16, 2024
but Michael Pittman Jr cannot fumble this ball up 13-7 mid-3rd quarter pic.twitter.com/1c5F45Ha8K
It was all ugly. Very ugly . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, I'll see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
