Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
Welcome To The 50-Point Club
As the team's official website put it, Bills quarterback "Josh Allen had a performance for the ages" as he became the first player in NFL history with three pass touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in a regular season game.
His six total TDs are the most by an NFL player this season.
However, Allen joins some unfortunate company as just the 8th NFL player all-time to record six or more TDs and still wind up on the losing side. Strangely, the last time it occurred was five years ago when Saints QB Drew Brees had six TDs in a 48-46 loss to the 49ers.
Allen tied Tom Brady and Drew Brees (9) for the most games all-time with three-plus passing and one-plus rushing TD. He also recorded his fifth game with two-plus passing TDs and 2-plus rushing TDs, surpassing Steve Young for the most in NFL history.
All that is great, but . . .
The Fantasy Outcome Matters Most
According to Footballguy Jason Wood, Allen's 55.3 fantasy points were the most by any quarterback in the last 20 years.
Allen rolled past the previous record, 52.7 points by Mike Vick with the Eagles in 2010. Brees, with 51.4 in 2015, and Aaron Rodgers, with 51.0 in 2011, are the other quarterbacks to exceed 50 points over those 20 years.
Allen now appears in the top 25 over the last two decades twice. He put up 44.1 points against Philadelphia last November.
Sunday's performance might have been an outlier, but the overall outcome for Allen is not unusual.
He was QB1 for the week, leaving him as QB2 on the season with an average of 23.5 points per game (Lamar Jackson is QB1 with 25.2 points per game).
Bigger picture, Allen has not finished outside the top-6 since his 2018 rookie season, when he was QB21. He started 11 games that season and averaged 17.5 fantasy points.
He was QB6 in 2019 with 18.2 fantasy points per game.
Since then?
Allen has been no lower than QB2, which he was in 2022 with 23.8 points per game. He was QB1 overall thrice in 2023, 2021, and 2020.
He averaged 24 points per game over those four seasons, with a low of 23.2 last season.
Allen was the first quarterback off the board this year, going with the 28th pick overall, according to Footballguys 2024 Average Draft Position (ADP) data . . .
Spreading The Wealth
It should come as no surprise that in addition to Allen's stellar day, the Bills also had standout performances from their pass catchers.
Running back Ty Johnson had a career-long 41-yard TD reception, wide receiver Amari Cooper had 95 receiving yards (most since joining BUF), receiver Khalil Shakir led the team with 106 yards, and fellow wideout Mack Hollins set a career-high for TDs in a season (5).
Cooper led all Bills with 14 targets and a 38 percent target share. According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, that was by far his highest target share as a Bill -- his previous high was 16.7 percent.
Worth noting, James Cook saw 100 percent of Buffalo's running back rushes against the Rams, but he only ran the ball six times . . .
Looking To Improve
Allen said his focus this week will be finding ways to get the offense in a rhythm earlier in the game.
The Bills had just 14 of their 42 points in the first half.
"We've got to find ways to score before the half and score after the half, so we didn't do our part either," he said. "Just trying to go out there and execute the play call to the best of our ability; we didn't do that well enough tonight."
The Bills play the Lions this week in a game with an initial over/under of 55 points. Considering what these defenses are up against, it's no surprise this is the highest total of the week . . .
Darnold 2.0
As Profootballtalk.com's Josh Alper noted, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold's career revival continued in last Sunday's win over the Falcons.
In a game that featured Kirk Cousins' return to Minnesota, Darnold showed that the Vikings' quarterback position is in good hands by setting new single-game career highs with 347 passing yards and five touchdowns in the 42-21 victory.
He became the first Vikings quarterback since 2004 to throw at least five TDs in a game.
The NFL announced on Wednesday that Darnold was named the NFC's offensive player of the week. It's the first time Darnold has won the NFC version of the award (he was named the AFC offensive player of the week while with the Jets in 2019).
It was a fantastic performance. Most weeks, Darnold's 34.6 fantasy points would have made him QB1 for the week.
But there's something to be said for No. 2, even if you didn't have him in your lineup . . .
Spreading The Wealth, Too
Three of Darnold's touchdowns went to Jordan Addison, who finished the game with eight catches for 133 yards. The other two went to Justin Jefferson, who caught all seven targets for 132 yards.
Jefferson caught his first TD since Week 7 and had his first multi-touchdown game since Week 4 of the 2023 season.
Addison was WR3 on the week with 39.3 points; Jefferson was WR4 with 32.2.
Darnold hit several deep balls to Addison and Jefferson throughout the contest. He connected with Addison for a 49-yard score in the first quarter and had a 52-yard touchdown to Jefferson in the third period.
That 49-yard scoring strike to Addison was Darnold's 20th completion of 20-plus air yards this season, tied for most in the NFL (with Bo Nix).
Jefferson and Addison became the second set of teammates in franchise history, each with 100 receiving yards and multiple scores in a game. The others were Hassan Jones and Steve Jordan in 1986.
Darnold ended the game with a near-perfect 157.9 passer rating, having completed 22 of his 28 throws, and Minnesota's 42 points is the most scored by the Vikings since Week 7, 2019 at Detroit (also 42).
By the way, Darnold is QB7 through 14 weeks. He's averaging 19.2 points per game. His ADP heading into the season was QB28 going in the 16th round.
That would be value . . .
Still Soaring
Eagles running back Saquon Barkley set a franchise record for single-season rushing yards Sunday in a 22-16 victory over the Carolina Panthers.
Barkley entered the day needing 109 yards to move past LeSean McCoy, who rushed for 1,607 yards in 2013. He moved into first place midway through the fourth quarter with a 9-yard gain.
He finished the game with 124 yards rushing.
It was Barkley's ninth 100-yard rushing game this season, also the most in Eagles history.
Suggesting Barkley is enjoying a career year in his first season in Philadelphia would be an understatement. He only needed 12 games to set a personal best in single-season rushing yards and established new highs in single-game rushing yards (255) and yards from scrimmage (302) in Week 12 against the Los Angeles Rams.
Barkley was named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for November -- the first of his career. He has four NFC Player of the Week honors this season, one more than he had during his entire six-year stint with the Giants.
He entered Sunday ranked No. 1 in rushing yards (1,499) in the NFL.
Meanwhile, his 124-yard effort Sunday puts him on pace to finish with 2,122 rushing yards for the season. That would set a new single-season record for the entire league -- Eric Dickerson set the mark in a 16-game season in 1984 -- and it will be something for Barkley to shoot for over the final four weeks.
And if he gets close sometime before then, don't be surprised if the Eagles moderate his role in an effort to get that single-season record in Week 18.
The Eagles host Barkley's former team, the Giants, on Jan. 5 to close out the season . . .
Speaking Of Value
While his output against the Panthers resulted in 12.4 points and a run-of-the-mill RB21 finish on the week, Barkley remains RB1 on the season with a 22.8-point-per-game average.
That's well ahead of RB2, Derrick Henry, who is averaging 19.7 points per game. Alvin Kamara is RB3 with 19.1 points per game this season.
Barkley's ADP heading into the season was RB5. This summer, he was drafted with the 12th pick overall, after San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey, the Jets' Breece Hall, Atlanta's Bijan Robinson, and Indy's Jonathan Taylor.
Only one of the players drafted ahead of Barkley, Robinson, who sits at RB4 with 18.8 points per game, is in the top 10.
Henry, with an RB8 ADP, was going in Round 2; Kamara was RB17 in Round 4.
If you're looking for a better understanding of how these selections impacted fantasy outcomes this year, Footballguy Dan Hindery's What Worked, What Didn't, and What It Means for 2025 examined the outcomes of this year's Footballguys Bowl and laid it all out for you.
Spoiler alert: Barkley, Henry, and Kamara are all included in 10 Best Picks as measured by advance rates of the teams which drafted them . . .
Lights, Camera, Ja'Marr!
As ESPN.com's Ben Baby noted, Ja'Marr Chase loves the national spotlight.
He has four straight 100-yard receiving games on "Monday Night Football," becoming the first player to have 100 receiving yards in each of his first four career MNF games.
Chase tied Randy Moss, Davante Adams, and Cooper Kupp for the most 100-yard games in MNF history.
The Bengals fed Chase throughout the game and helped him bolster an All-Pro case that was already strong. He finished with 177 yards on 14 catches, two TDs, and 45.1 fantasy points.
He was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his effort.
Chase is now leading the league with 93 catches, 1,319 yards, and 15 touchdowns, with a shot at winning the receiving Triple Crown.
He also had 75 yards after the catch in Dallas, giving him 626 yards after the catch on the season, the most in the NFL.
That 45.1-point output on Monday night was the third-highest total by a wide receiver this year.
The two ahead of him were Jauan Jennings' 46.5 in Week 4 and Chase's own 55.4 in Week 10. Chase also had another 40-plus point outing, with 41.3 points in Week 5.
He's currently WR1 overall, averaging 24.4 points per game . . .
The Chases Are On
Cincinnati's other Chase, running back Chase Brown, carried 14 times for 58 yards against the Cowboys, adding six receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown on eight targets.
Brown is currently RB12 on the season, averaging 15.5 points per game.
But in the five games since Zack Moss was lost to injury, Brown is RB6 with 21.8 points per game.
Not surprisingly, both Chases are among Hindery's 10 Best Picks this season . . .
This And That
Targets Of Opportunity
It was a big week for players suddenly thrust into primary roles. Fantasy managers who leaned into them made out for the most part.
Charbonnet For The Win
Seattle's run game came alive in Week 14 despite not having Ken Walker III.
The Seahawks entered Sunday averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry, but even without their best back, they exploded for 176 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry thanks to Zach Charbonnet's strong showing. The second-year man rushed 22 times for a career-high 134 yards and two touchdowns while adding 59 yards on seven catches in the team's 30-18 win over the Cardinals.
Charbonnet became the third player in Seahawks history with 100-plus rushing yards, multiple rushing TDs, and 50-plus receiving yards in a game, joining Shaun Alexander (2002 vs Vikings) and Ricky Watters (1999 at Chiefs). Charbonnet's 51-yard TD was the longest run of his career (his previous long was 23 yards).
His performance was even more impressive after Arizona held Seattle to just 65 total rushing yards two weeks ago. Adding to the intrigue, Zachariason pointed out that Charbonnet had a 76 percent running back rush share and a 24 percent target share against the Cardinals; Walker has hit that high of a target share once in his career.
Better still, Charbonnet's 38.3 fantasy points made him RB1 overall for the week.
It also made him the week's top target of opportunity.
We'll see if he gets an opportunity to repeat against the Packers with Walker now considered day-to-day . . .
A Close Second
49ers rookie Isaac Guerendo made the most of his first start in place of the injured Christian McCaffrey (knee) and Jordan Mason (ankle).
He had 78 rushing yards on 15 carries for two touchdowns and was a solid pass threat with 50 yards on two receptions. A fourth-quarter foot injury put a damper on his day, but it was an impressive opening act that led to 26.8 fantasy points and an RB2 finish for the week.
That foot injury might open the door for other targets of opportunity. Guerendo is listed as questionable for Thursday night football.
Patrick Taylor Jr., Ke'Shawn Vaughn, and Israel Abanikanda are the remaining backs on the roster. Will one of them answer the call and emerge as this week's target of opportunity?
Taylor is first in line, but it's not clear he's best-suited to handle the job; that distinction might go the bigger, faster Abanikanda. At this point, with a full slate of games this week, I'd be tempted to keep my powder dry and hold out for more reliable options this weekend . . .
Sincerely Effective
Raiders running back Sincere McCormick, who has mostly been a practice squad player, is looking more like the RB1 for a rebuilding Raiders offense.
Taking advantage of injuries to Alexander Mattison and Zamir White, McCormick rushed for a career-best 78 yards on 15 carries.
McCormick handled 15 of 16 possible running back rushes while playing 62 percent of the team's snaps. Zachariason notes his route participation rate was still just 24 percent, which is nothing special, but the ground-game work was absolutely there.
Will the role be persistent?
White has been placed on injured reserve, but Mattison should return this week. Still, the Athletic's Vic Tafur reports that head coach Antonio Pierce said on Wednesday that McCormick has earned the starting RB role: "He has run his tail off."
Assuming that's the case, the Raiders play the Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints over their three playoff matchups. As Zachariason suggested, "There's a chance we see some neutral environments, allowing McCormick to at least give his higher-end RB3 production like he did in Week 14."
And for the future?
Footballguy Matt Waldman, in his Week 15: Top 10, wrote, "McCormick continues to display the decisiveness, the contact balance, and the burst that earned him the starter volume for the Raiders during the past two weeks. Is he a special back? Not that I've seen.
"Is he earning a shot to stick with the Raiders and compete for a contributing role in 2025? As long as Antonio Pierce remains the Raiders' coach, yes . . ."
Less Than Expected
The Jets were without running back Breece Hall in Miami. Many expected rookie Braelon Allen to dominate the backfield in Hall's absence.
As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke reminded his readers, Allen played 174 snaps over the first 12 weeks compared to fellow rookie Isaiah Davis' six. We saw Davis get some run in a receiving role in Week 13, but it was surprising how evenly the workload was shared in the loss to the Dolphins.
Allen ran 11 times to Davis' 10, while Allen caught four passes to Davis' three. Davis had the best fantasy performance of the two, thanks to a 17-yard touchdown run.
Jahnke believes if Hall misses more time, we should expect Allen to score more fantasy points and potentially benefit from a slightly wider gap in carries. Jahnke also points out the Jets have, by far, the best schedule for running backs in the fantasy playoffs, starting with the Jaguars this week . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
As much as I'd like to feature Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle here (he's RB10 over the last three games, people), we don't often get to highlight the good in Jacksonville for the obvious reason: There hasn't been much to crow about.
But Sunday's win over the Titans saw Tank Bigsby run the ball 18 times, a career-high in a game where Travis Etienne Jr. also played.
As Jahnke wrote, "While there have been hints all season that Bigsby was the lead rusher on this team, this game was, by far, the clearest evidence that Bigsby is the team's top runner for, at least, the rest of this season."
That he finished as RB19 on the week -- in RB2 territory in 12-team leagues -- is a bonus.
Can he carry that over?
According to Jahnke, the Jaguars generally face below-average teams with average run defenses over the rest of the fantasy season, so we should expect Bigsby to have at least double-digit carries in those games. Jahnke added: "He should be one of the top waiver-wire options on the week."
Meanwhile, Brian Thomas Jr. had 86 yards receiving, his seventh game with 75 or more this season -- the most among all NFL rookies.
With four games left, he could be the first rookie in the Super Bowl era to have 10 games with 75-plus yards. Four players have had nine 75-plus games; the two most recent were LSU alums (Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 and Justin Jefferson in 2020).
In the last two games with Mac Jones at quarterback, Thomas has had 10-plus targets and scored 16.0 or more fantasy points in consecutive games.
That's pretty good . . .
The Bad
Things haven't been going well for Deebo Samuel Sr. this season.
In my In and Out: Week 14 Edition, I wrote: "My anti-Samuel stance is a hill I'm willing to fight on. And I'm not alone. Samuel has caught just 38 passes for 531 yards and a touchdown this season. He has also been largely ineffective as a rusher, averaging a paltry 2.9 yards per carry."
His performance heading into Sunday's game against the Bears had hit fantasy investors hard. Samuel hadn't posted a double-digit score since Week 10 when he finished with 12.6 points. He's hit 20 points once all season and only has four games with WR2 or better finishes (including a WR12 finish in Week 1 and a WR10 finish in Week 6).
Over the previous three games, he was WR71 with an average of 5.1 points per game, and he hadn't finished higher than WR57 over that span.
Well, he fixed that against Chicago. Samuel finished the day as WR55 with 5.5 points.
He ended up with two receptions for 22 yards with five carries for 13 yards.
After the game, in a since-deleted post on X, Samuel opined that lack of opportunity was behind his poor showing this season. The deletion came after a Community Note corrected Deebo's take, reminding us all that he is indeed struggling.
Yikes: #49ers WR Deebo Samuel Sr. got hit with the Community Notes on the “X” app after tweeting that he isn’t struggling this season. pic.twitter.com/djB0FtouaG
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) December 10, 2024
Samuel is now WR73 over the last four games, with an average of 5.2 points per game. He's WR48 in the year, with 9.7 per week.
The Ugly
Graham Gano's game-tying field goal try at the buzzer on Sunday was blocked to give the Saints a 14-11 win that dropped the Giants to 2-11.
It was the Giants' eighth straight loss, and it seems they're finding new ways to lose each week. This all reflects poorly on head coach Brian Daboll.
As if it wasn't enough, a plane flew over MetLife Stadium prior to the game with a banner directed at Giants owner John Mara that read: "MR MARA ENOUGH -- PLZ FIX THIS DUMPSTER FIRE."
The optics of this and a half-empty stadium aren't good for Daboll and this regime. Sure, the Giants are incredibly short-handed, but ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan contends this type of embarrassment generally irks Mara.
It got the attention of star rookie wideout Malik Nabers, who, in addition to being the team's most dangerous offensive weapon, is one of the most entertaining players on the roster.
Malik Nabers, hearing for the 1st time about the plane overhead calling for this dumpster fire to be fixed: “I ain’t pay for the plane” #Giants pic.twitter.com/lzofH6JG6I
— Pat Leonard (@PLeonardNYDN) December 8, 2024
After the game, Daboll said at his press conference that he did not see the banner and was asked what he thought of the sentiment.
"Look, we've won two games. I'm not happy either," Daboll said.
The Giants are now 8-22 since the start of last season and Daboll was asked what argument he'd make for more time on the job.
He chose not to offer one.
"I'm disappointed we have two wins," Daboll said. "We're just gonna keep on grinding out and keep developing these young players and get ready to play a great team next week."
Mara said earlier this year that he'd be sticking with Daboll and General Manager Joe Schoen. The uglier this season gets, the more difficult it's going to be for Mara to defend that position.
And if Barkley, as mentioned above, breaks the all-time rushing record against the Giants in Week 18?
Get your popcorn ready!
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, I'll see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
