Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
Change In Chicago
The Bears fired head coach Matt Eberflus last Friday, choosing to go in a "different direction" one day after a 23-20 loss to the Detroit Lions that ended with the Bears' furious comeback attempt falling short thanks to clock mismanagement.
Thomas Brown will assume Chicago's interim head-coaching duties as the team gears up for this week's matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.
As ESPN.com's Courtney Cronin recounted, Eberflus' tenure ended amid a six-game losing streak that featured an array of last-second losses, including:
- An 18-15 road loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 8 that culminated with a tipped 52-yard Hail Mary pass. In an embarrassing twist, Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson had his back to receivers running downfield as he faced and taunted fans on the final play before racing over into coverage.
- A 20-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 11 that featured a blocked 46-yard field goal that would have lifted the Bears to victory. It was Cairo Santos' league-leading third blocked field goal attempt of the season, and it came after the Bears decided not to run an extra play to make it a shorter attempt.
- A 30-27 overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12 that negated a furious fourth-quarter rally.
- Last Thursday's loss, which ended with the Bears having the ball on the Lions' 41 with 32 seconds left. Instead of calling his final timeout, Eberflus watched as rookie quarterback Caleb Williams threw a long pass out of the reach of Rome Odunze as time expired.
The losing streak, however, included noticeable improvement from Williams, who has thrown 232 passes without an interception, the longest streak for a rookie in NFL history. He has thrown five touchdowns without a pick over the past two weeks, and the next head coach will be charged with continuing the development of this year's No. 1 draft choice . . .
No Coincidence
Williams' dramatic turnaround began in Week 11 when former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired, and Brown was promoted from run-game coordinator to replace him.
With Brown in his headset encouraging him to "go be Superman" when he needs to make plays out of structure, Williams had the Bears in position to win their past three games against Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit.
As Cronin noted, Williams' progress will be judged beyond statistical marks such as QBR, completion percentage, and yards per dropback, all of which have increased with Brown calling the plays.
That said, Cronin went on to suggest that Brown can help Williams most by teaching him how to avoid costly sacks and encouraging him to take his layups. In his Week 11 debut as play caller, Brown emphasized running the ball and getting it out of Williams' hands quicker.
Williams has acknowledged some of his league-high 49 sacks resulted from him holding onto the ball or not throwing it away quickly enough.
So far, the results have been quite promising . . .
What Brown Is Doing For All Of Us
In what NFL.com's Eric Edholm characterized as "perhaps his cleanest and best showing of the season," Williams completed 23 of 31 passes for 231 yards and scrambled for a season-best 70 yards in the loss to the Packers.
The fantasy result was mediocre because the running backs scored both touchdowns in that one, but it's been better since.
In fact, Williams has been QB3 with an average of 25.5 points per game over the last two. Even with that less-than-stellar Week 11 outing (he was QB18 with 16.2 points), Williams has been QB4 over the three-game span with Brown running the offense, averaging 22.4 points per game.
Williams averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game through Week 10 with Waldron at the helm.
In addition, Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason noted this week that the team's wideouts have fared well without Waldron.
DJ Moore has turned 30 targets into 22 catches and 265 yards with a pair of touchdowns; Keenan Allen has 18 catches (on 31 targets) for 200 yards and three touchdowns; Odunze has 13 catches for 129 yards on 26 targets.
Moore has been WR4 with an average of 20.8 points per game over that stretch. Allen is WR6 with 18.7 points per game.
Odunze has been the outlier as WR50 over that span, an improvement over his WR60 numbers over the first 10 games.
Allen was WR73 over the first 10 weeks but missed two games due to injury. Moore was WR32 with Waldron calling the shots . . .
Looking Ahead
As Dave Kluge noted in his Week 13 Three Up, Three Down, Williams has a "brutal stretch of matchups" to close out the fantasy football season against the Lions (twice), 49ers, Vikings (again), and Seahawks.
But, Kluge added, "If he continues playing like he has the last couple of weeks, he and the revamped Bears offense could push these opponents into shootout situations . . ."
Looking Further Ahead
While Brown has a chance to prove himself worthy of removing the interim tag from his title, team president Kevin Warren isn't expecting to have difficulty finding people who want to coach the team.
Warren and General Manager Ryan Poles held a press conference on Monday to discuss the decision to fire Eberflus. Warren made it clear that he thinks the opening will be appealing for the top head coaching candidates around the league. Warren said the job would be the "most coveted" one in this year's coaching cycle and cited the team's fans, tradition, and forthcoming new stadium along with their football assets, including the roster.
Poles put together that roster, which is why he'll remain in the organization and play a major role in choosing the next coach.
According to Profootballtalk.com's Josh Alper, Williams will likely also have a say in the process, and finding the right person to develop him will be essential to the hiring process in Chicago. Conversely, the chance to develop and work with a talented young quarterback will appeal to prospective head coaches, and if the money is right, the Bears could make a strong case.
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury, who was at USC with Williams last season, have both been mentioned as possible candidates.
As ESPN's Dan Graziano pointed out, it would be a coup for the Bears to land the cycle's most sought-after candidate in Johnson, partly because it could elevate and energize their offense and partly because they'd be weakening a division rival. "I don't know if they can get him," Graziano added, "but I feel pretty confident in predicting that the Bears will try."
We'll see if Brown can do anything to remain relevant down the stretch . . .
Nothing Questionable About Bucky
Buccaneers rookie running back Bucky Irving's recent run of strong play was recognized by his head coach, Todd Bowles, this week, and the NFL did the same on Wednesday.
Irving was named the NFC offensive player of the week after his big day helped the Bucs knock off the Panthers in overtime in Week 13.
In case you missed it, Irving left Sunday's game in the second quarter due to a hip injury. The team announced he was questionable to return heading into the half.
Irving not only returned, he dominated.
He ran 25 times for 152 yards and caught three passes for 33 yards as Tampa moved to 6-6 on the season. Irving also ran for a touchdown for the third straight week.
Better still, he finished the Week as RB1 with 27.5 fantasy points.
"Bucky's a stud," quarterback Baker Mayfield said. "Obviously, getting the ball in his hands is good for our offense -- goes for all of our backs. But the way Bucky played tonight gave us that spark we really needed when we weren't doing too hot."
The Panthers limited Mayfield's ability to step up into the pocket and to escape it, and there were costly penalties that made Irving's efforts all the more impactful . . .
Big Numbers
Irving's 152 rushing yards are the most by a rookie in a game this season. According to ESPN Research, his 97 rushing yards in the fourth quarter alone were the fourth-most by any running back this season and the most by a rookie since Week 5 in 2017 (Leonard Fournette, 139).
In addition, Irving's 185 scrimmage yards were the most of any rookie in a game this season.
That was on top of a 152-yard performance at the New York Giants in Week 12, including 88 rushing yards, 64 receiving yards, and a touchdown.
The Bucs took Irving in the fourth round of this year's draft, and he's run 133 times for 732 yards and six touchdowns in the year.
He has 1,017 scrimmage yards through 12 games, the second-most in Buccaneers history . . .
Big Implications
After his two-week roll, Irving sits at RB16 for the season with an average of 14.4 points per game. But his success hasn't relegated running mate Rachaad White to the fantasy ash heap.
White is RB24 on the season, averaging 13.4 points per game after scoring six touchdowns over the five weeks before Sunday's game.
But there are concerns for White.
According to Zachariason, Irving's 69.4 percent running back rush share was a season (and career) high. He previously hadn't been over 14 rush attempts this season.
Of course, White's role in the passing attack has helped him retain value.
But with Irving's increased workload and Mike Evans' return -- the veteran wideout finished Sunday's game with eight receptions for 118 receiving yards, his first 100-yard game this season, and a touchdown, White has been limited to a single target in each of the last two games.
Irving, White, Evans, and the Buccaneers face the Raiders this week . . .
Vengeance!
Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy rolled up nine receptions for a career-high 235 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets against the Denver Broncos, his first game back at Empower Field at Mile High since the offseason trade that sent him to Cleveland.
As NFL.com noted, in the lead-up to Monday night, Jeudy didn't hide his desire to dominate against the team he felt never properly used him during his four seasons in Denver.
He played inspired football against the Broncos, starting hot and drawing scores of boos from Broncos fans who'd heard his trash talk (and likely remembered his underwhelming production as a Bronco).
According to DenverSports.com's Andrew Mason, Jeudy compiled the most receiving yards ever in a single game against the Broncos, breaking a record that had stood since 1965. According to Elias Sports Bureau, his 235 receiving yards marked a career-high and the most by a player in his first game against a former team in NFL history.
Judy has flourished since the Browns turned to Jameis Winston at quarterback, demonstrating that he can be important to Cleveland's future.
He certainly did enough to prove a point to his former employer.
More importantly, Judy, who recorded his fifth-straight game with at least 70 yards (the longest streak of his career), also helped out fantasy managers who rolled him out in lineups with 38.5 points, which made him WR1 overall in Week 13 . . .
Still Stingy
According to Next Gen Stats, Jeudy and Broncos shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II lined up against each other on 34 of 57 Jeudy routes. Surtain allowed two receptions for 20 yards (three targets) versus Jeudy while the rest of the team allowed seven receptions for 215 yards (10 targets) . . .
Jameis Is Who We Thought He Was
Winston has been a volatile passer his entire NFL career, but Monday night's loss reached a new level. The numbers are all you need to see to understand what went down in Denver.
Winston threw the ball 62 times, and his 497 passing yards marked not only a career-high but set a Browns franchise record, exceeding the 489 yards Bernie Kosar threw against the New York Jets in 1986 in the divisional playoffs. It was also Winston's third career game with at least 450 passing yards and four touchdowns, tying Peyton Manning for the most in NFL history.
But these three interceptions and two pick-sixes were backbreaking. Winston's second pick-six was ultimately the difference in the defeat but par for the course in his career.
Winston became the first player in the Super Bowl era with 400-plus passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and multiple pick-sixes thrown in a single game. When factoring in the 171 interception return yards gained by Denver against Winston, the 668 combined passing yards plus interception return yards off of his passes is the most by any quarterback in a single game in NFL history.
Of course, fantasy managers don't care. Winston's 31-point effort makes him QB1 on the week . . .
This And That
Another Step Forward
According to NFL.com's Bobby Kownack, Anthony Richardson's performance against the Patriots is a microcosm of his season.
Just when the second-year quarterback's growing pains appeared a touch too painful, he rallied the Colts back with his best drive of the game.
As Kownack explained, Richardson was up and down against New England as he's been all year, spraying the ball around the field with jaw-dropping prowess and woeful inaccuracy in equal measure. He completed just 12 of his 24 passes for 109 yards. With 5:34 remaining in the game, trailing by seven, his passing yardage stood at a mere 63.
It was looking like another blemish on his development journey.
Then, he went on the move, traveling 80 yards while converting one fourth down with a crisp throw on the run and another with his legs on a designed QB sweep.
Kownack contends Richardson had at least two deep passes (and perhaps a third) that should've been caught, but the methodical drive worked out, nonetheless, allowing the Colts to score on a Richardson pass to Alec Pierce and go for two with 12 seconds remaining.
Richardson plowed into the end zone on that conversion attempt to help beat the Pats.
After the game, he told reporters that he wanted to decide things at the end.
"No doubt. Whenever we're in that situation, I'd like the ball in my hands," Richardson said. "I feel like I can make a play. But it's up to the coach, it's not up to me, to make the decision at some point. But if he believes I can make a play, make a change, I'll do it. If not, somebody else has to do it."
He was benched earlier this season, but Richardson has shown in two of his past three games that he can show up big in the fourth quarter by leading game-winning drives against the Jets and Patriots. And in both of those games, his powerful running was a factor -- a game-winning TD run against New York and the two-pointer Sunday.
There were some rough patches on the way to the ending, but Richardson's overall body of work was a step in the right direction . . .
Ball Insecurity
As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke reported, Aaron Jones was temporarily benched after fumbling twice, losing one, in the first quarter. ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert notes that the usually reliable Jones has now tied his career record for the most fumbles (five) and the most fumbles lost (three) in a full season.
He also dropped a sure touchdown pass in the fourth quarter before catching the go-ahead score with 1:13 remaining, which led to a reasonable enough fantasy outcome.
But the benching was noticeable.
Jones played all nine offensive snaps in the first quarter. However, after the second fumble, he only played two snaps in the second quarter, both coming late. Ty Chandler and Cam Akers both rotated in throughout the game, with Chandler getting most of the second-quarter snaps.
Should we be concerned going forward?
Jahnke believes it's at least possible that Jones' playing time will remain limited this week given the ball security issues . . .
Getting Busy
As ESPN.com's Todd Archer noted, it's been trending in this direction recently, but the Cowboys had their first running back go for more than 100 yards since Week 3 last year as Rico Dowdle picked up 112 yards, a career-high on 22 carries against the Giants on Sunday.
He also scored his first rushing touchdown of the season and had a season-long 22-yard run in the first half.
The last time a Cowboys running back went for more than 100 yards was Tony Pollard against Arizona in 2023. The 26-game span was the longest 100-yard game drought in franchise history.
Dowdle, who is RB26 on the season, is RB12 over the last five games . . .
Getting Busier
As SBNation noted, with the Bengals in "catch-up mode" and having their offense off the field for much of the latter half of the game in their loss to the Steelers, Chase Brown's stats and contributions got overshadowed. He was an all-around weapon again, garnering 100 total yards (70 rushing, 30 receiving) and a touchdown in this one.
Adding to the positivity, Zachariason notes that in his four games without Zack Moss, Brown has seen running back rush shares of 100, 100, 100, and 92 percent, and he's scored no fewer than 19 fantasy points in any of those games.
Brown is RB4 over those four games with a 22.4-point-per-game average, and he gets a nice matchup against the Cowboys on Monday night . . .
Back On Top
After a slow Week 12 that saw him fall short of double-digit fantasy points for the first time since Week 4, Raiders tight end Brock Bowers got back on track against the Chiefs on Black Friday.
He finished the game with 10 catches, 140 yards, and a touchdown to finish as TE1 on the week with 30.2 fantasy points.
Heading into the stretch, Bowers needs three catches to set the record for most receptions by a rookie TE in NFL history.
He has 84 catches through 12 games, trailing only Odell Beckham Jr., for the most through any rookie's first 12 games ever . . .
Scoreless Vs. Seattle?
Cardinals tight end Trey McBride caught all 12 of his targets for 96 yards, tying his third-best game of the season. He continued to prove he is an elite playmaker for Arizona, with seven of his catches going for first downs, but he still hasn't found the end zone.
No player in the NFL has been targeted more than McBride without finding the end zone. He now has 92 targets and zero receiving touchdowns this season.
How bad is it?
Josh Allen now has more receiving touchdowns than Trey McBride this season.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) December 2, 2024
That's rough. McBride will try to end that streak against Seattle . . .
Road Warrior
Houston running back Joe Mixon is the first player of all time to have 100-plus rushing yards and one or more rushing TDs in six straight road games.
He also has back-to-back games with a 100 percent running back rush share. And, in those games, he's seen his two highest target shares of the season at 19.4 and 18.2 percent.
Mixon heads into the bye as RB6, despite missing three games with a high-ankle sprain . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
The Jaguars needed wide receiver Parker Washington to step up with Christian Kirk (collarbone) out for the year, and the second-year slot receiver finally did.
He tied his career high with six catches and had the first 100-yard game of his career (103). He also had a touchdown and a 2-point conversion.
Before Sunday, Washington had just nine catches in the three games since Kirk's Week 8 injury.
What was the difference this time?
According to Jahnke, when Gabe Davis went down two weeks ago, Washington moved from the slot to out wide, while Devin Duvernay became the Jaguars' slot receiver.
After the Week 12 bye, the Jaguars went back to the initial strategy in terms of the wide receiver pecking order, but there was more of a rotation in the slot and out wide. Duvernay played close to 50 percent of his snaps from the slot, but Thomas ended up with the most total snaps from that position.
Washington took advantage of his increased role to finish the week as WR7 with 22.3. points.
Should we expect another big outing this weekend?
Well . . . The Jaguars close the season with two games against the Tennessee Titans, the New York Jets, and Las Vegas Raiders.
As Jahnke noted, those are all games against top-12 defenses in fantasy points to wide receivers, so the Jaguars could stick more to the run game -- especially with Mac Jones at quarterback.
While Jones was serviceable against the Texans, he was far from that in his first two games filling in for Lawrence, who will finish the season on injured reserve after he was concussed on a violent, illegal hit.
Bottom line?
It will be much harder for Washington to have this kind of performance in the remaining games . . .
The Bad
Following Sunday's win over the Bengals, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said George Pickens has "just got to grow up, man," after the third-year receiver committed a pair of personal fouls.
In Tomlin's Tuesday press conference, he declined to say how he's handling Pickens behind the scenes.
For instance, when asked if Pickens' recurring penalties are a concern, Tomlin said, "If it is or isn't, I wouldn't necessarily tell you, to be quite honest with you."
As Profootballtalk.com suggested, every week, it seems Pickens has a clip that goes viral on social media about an extracurricular issue that flared up during the game. But he has continued to be productive, as he's caught 55 passes for 850 yards with three touchdowns so far in 2024.
Against the Bengals, Pickens was flagged for taunting and for making finger guns after a catch, costing Pittsburgh 30 yards in penalties. He finished the game with three receptions for 74 yards with a touchdown on six targets.
Pickens and the Steelers will face the Browns for the second time in three weeks on Sunday.
When the two teams got together on a snowy Thursday night in Cleveland in Week 12, Pickens was tussling with Cleveland defenders on the last Hail Mary.
We'll see if Tomlin's behind-the-scenes effort yields results . . .
The Ugly
Atlanta went into its bye worried about a defense that gave up 38 points to the Broncos in Week 11.
Now, the big concern is the quarterback.
Kirk Cousins had four interceptions Sunday -- his most in 10 years -- and has not thrown a touchdown pass since Week 9.
Since Week 10, Cousins has posted three straight games with negative expected points added. His minus-24.6 EPA in that span ranks third-lowest among quarterbacks.
He's taken seven sacks during that stretch.
Drake London, who was WR5 over the first nine games, has been WR28 since Week 10, averaging 14.7 points per game. Darnell Mooney, who was WR8 over the first nine weeks, has been WR69 since, averaging 8.1 points per game.
But wait . . . It gets worse.
As Zachariason pointed out, Kyle Pitts has scored 2.1, 9.5, 1.9, and 0 PPR points over his last four games.
He had a 5.3 percent target share (2 targets) against the Chargers.
A month ago, the Falcons were 6-3 and seemingly poised to take command of the NFC South, but they've since lost three in a row to drop to 6-6, and the offense looks broken.
Cousins is playing poorly, and it's hard to ignore that the No. 8 pick of this year's draft, Michael Penix Jr.., is sitting on the bench.
Up next for Cousins?
The Falcons travel to Minnesota to face his old team Sunday. If he can't turn things around, it could get even uglier . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, I hope you have a fantastic Thanksgiving day and weekend, and I'll see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.