Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
Mission Impossible
The Rams understood the assignment: Stop Saquon Barkley.
They knew it would be a challenge. They prepared the best they could.
Still, they were not up for it.
So much so, I included the following in my Daily Update Week 12 Injury Review Podcast: "We should acknowledge the hurt feelings of Rams defenders after Barkley racked up 302 yards from scrimmage, including 255 rushing with touchdown runs of 70 and 72 yards.
"I should also recognize the pain felt by Giants fans after watching their entire offense finish with 245 yards in the loss to Tampa Bay" earlier Sunday.
"He's a different type of player," Rams rookie outside linebacker Jared Verse said of Barkley. "I've never seen a running back like that."
There aren't many like him this year. There haven't been many like him ever . . .
The Numbers Don't Lie
While the use of deep analytics to assess fantasy values is super helpful, the more arcane statistics can sometimes cloud as much as clarify. But in this case, Barkley's fantasy points over expected (FPOE) is worth noting because it helps provide some historical context through comparison.
Specifically, Barkley is averaging .29 fantasy points over expected per carry.
As Kyle Dvorchak at Rotoworld noted this week, that is the seventh-best mark in FPOE per carry since 2000 (with a minimum of 200 carries). Dvorchak added: "The six names above Barkley on the list illustrate how special his season has been: DeAngelo Williams, LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, and Marshall Faulk."
All six of those players delivered overall RB1 seasons for their fantasy investors.
Barkley, who became just the 12th NFL player ever to eclipse 300 scrimmage yards in a game, leads the league with 223 carries, 1,392 rushing yards, and 1,649 yards from scrimmage. As SI.com's Albert Breer pointed out this week, the NFL record for yards from scrimmage was 2,509 yards by Titans RB Chris Johnson in 2009.
Barkley, who is 860 yards away with six games left, needs to average 143.3 yards per game to pass Johnson. He's averaging 149.9 yards per game now.
Meanwhile, with Barkley and the running game chugging along, the Eagles are off to a 9-2 start -- which is the best of Barkley's career and just the second time he's ever been on a team with nine victories.
If all this seems to be heading in a direction, it's because it is . . .
The MVP Conversation Has Started
If Barkley keeps playing like this, he might be the first running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012 to capture the award.
Said Rams coach Sean McVay: "He's as good as there is as a slash runner to be able to work edges and then be able to erase angles and be able to finish. And that's why he had the production that he had, and that's why he's had arguably an MVP-type of season so far."
As ESPN.com's Tim McManus noted, entering Sunday, Barkley had 60-1 odds to win MVP. That shot up to +550 Sunday night, per ESPN BET, tied with the Lions' Jared Goff for the third-best odds to win the award. Only Buffalo's Josh Allen (+135) and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson (+300) boast better odds.
After six seasons with the New York Giants, Barkley signed a three-year, $38 million free-agent contract with the Eagles. The No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft made a pair of Pro Bowls in New York but has never played behind this caliber of offensive line or with as many playmakers as he has in Philadelphia. He has been quick to credit his teammates for playing a major role in his success.
As for the MVP? Barkley said he won't really start thinking about that until the end of the season.
"I love being in that conversation," he said. "It's cool and all. But it's a team sport. And if you told me I can have the year I'm having and win MVP but not win the Super Bowl, or I can have the year I'm having and not win MVP or Offensive Player of the Year and win the Super Bowl, I'm going to take the [second] one."
Fantasy managers probably feel the same . . .
He Has That League-Wining Upside
Nonetheless, Barkley, who is leading the race to be this year's RB1 overall, is almost certainly viewed as the Fantasy MVP by those who invested in him this summer.
Barkley, who was RB5 and went with the 12th pick overall, according to the final Footballguys Average Draft Position data, has offered great return on investment.
He has three games with 195-plus scrimmage yards this season, the same amount as the rest of the NFL combined. He's the third player in NFL history to have 1,500 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns in his first season with multiple teams, joining Hall of Famers Faulk and Eric Dickerson.
His breakaway ability adds to all this.
According to Next Gen Stats, Barkley has five of the top-20 speeds posted this season -- including the fourth fastest, 21.93 MPH, more than any other player in the top 20.
More importantly, after his 46.2-point outing against the Rams, Barkley heads into Week 13 averaging 24.0 fantasy points per game. That's 4 points per game ahead of this year's RB2, Derrick Henry.
We call that leverage over the field . . .
No. 1 Overall In 2025?
It's the kind of leverage that makes a player the first pick overall in fantasy drafts.
Chrisitan McCaffrey averaged 23.0 fantasy points per game over his 10 appearances with the 49ers after being traded to San Francisco in 2022. He built on that to average 24.7 fantasy points per game in 2023 and was almost exclusively the No. 1 pick overall in drafts this summer.
Can Barkley, who on Wednesday was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week for the fourth time this season, improve on his current 24.0 average and further establish himself as the alpha in the pecking order for 2025?
As Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason pointed out this week, Barkley has scored 30-plus points in five games this year. Since 2011, only McCaffrey in 2019 (8 times), Todd Gurley in 2018 (7), and David Johnson in 2016 (6) have been able to score 30-plus points in at least five games.
If anybody is going to make a push to hit a McCaffrey-like player-and-half advantage at his position, Barkley, who has games coming against the Ravens, Panthers, Steelers, Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants, certainly has the schedule, momentum, scheme, and supporting cast to make it happen.
Oh, and here's to hoping that those of us who aren't invested in him this season don't face him in the games that matter most the rest of the year . . .
Not Dead Yet
The Titans' upset win over the Texans on Sunday has them at 3-8 and 3.5 games out of first place in the AFC South, which head coach Brian Callahan says is enough to keep them alive in the playoff race.
"We're not dead yet," Callahan told reporters today.
Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith noted that the Titans could still finish with a winning record at 9-8 if they were to run the table.
"Still six weeks to play. A lot of things out there to play for still, and we have to find a way to win more games," Callahan said.
Callahan said the Titans' offense and much-maligned quarterback Will Levis are progressing.
Fantasy managers invested in the key assets here would agree.
Against the Texans, the Titans scored 30 points for the second time this season. Before reaching that threshold against the Dolphins in Week 4, Tennessee had not done it since Jan 2, 2022.
The suddenly explosive passing game produced three plays of 30 yards or more, matching the previous week's output against the Vikings.
But the success starts on the ground . . .
Paving The Way
The Titans signed running back Tony Pollard during free agency after losing Derrick Henry to the Baltimore Ravens.
Despite a few subpar games, Pollard is having a solid season, and one analyst, NFL Network's Brian Baldinger, thinks the former Cowboy might be having his best season yet.
"The great ones can make yards when there's nothing there," Baldinger said before breaking down a play where Pollard had basically nowhere to go. There's no hole; there's no way forward. But none of the Houston Texans' defenders get his legs, and Pollard ping-pongs through the line for a 17-yard gain.
Pollard is on track to record his third season in a row with more than 1,000 yards rushing. He has at least 22 carries in all three of the Titans' wins for at least 85 yards. He's also run at least 16 times in all of their losses that were by at least one score.
Add his ability to aid the offensive line in pass protection, and Pollard's value to the Titans is clear.
For our purposes, it's worth noting that two of Pollard's top three career games by carries have come this year without Tyjae Spears.
Pollard ran 24 times for 119 yards on Sunday without Spears. According to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, it was the first time Pollard played over 90 percent of Tennessee's offensive snaps, finishing with 94 percent in this game.
He also ran 28 times for 128 yards three weeks ago in a game Spears also missed.
For what it's worth, Jim Wyatt of the team's official website reported Wednesday that Spears remains in the NFL's concussion protocol. He'll have the next few days to clear the protocols to return for Week 13, so you'll want to watch for that.
But even if Spears returns, Pollard will be on the field for about 65 percent of Tennesse's offensive snaps, and Jahnke contends he's a must-start regardless of Spears' health . . .
Must-Start Status
As surprising as it seems, the Titans have more than one player who merits being locked into starting lineups every week.
As Zachariason pointed out, Calvin Ridley averages 16.9 points per game without DeAndre Hopkins this year. With him, Ridley was at 7.5.
As a result, Ridley is WR7 from Weeks 8 through 12.
That puts the veteran wideout every bit as much in must-start territory as Pollard, who is RB14 over that same five-week span . . .
Other Options
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine scored a touchdown in six of his last seven games, but he only has two games all season with more than two receptions.
For perspective, Zachariason notes that Westbrook-Ikhine is averaging a touchdown on every five targets this year. The average across the league at wide receiver is about one touchdown for every 20 targets.
Meanwhile, Levis is playing better. Also, he can't stop getting sacked.
According to Rotoworld's Pat Pat Daugherty, it's "the ultimate Levis fact" that his best start came in a game where the Texans took him down eight times.
"It's vanishingly rare for a good quarterback to ever take eight sacks, let alone twice in two months," Daugherty wrote. "Then again, most QBs don't average 10.4 yards per attempt across tough matchups with the Vikings and Texans. Levis is a man of paradoxes. They will get broken into a million little pieces if he can't start protecting himself better."
That's true. Also true?
Levis has scored 19.1, 15.6, and 16.1 points over his last three games. During his other four starts earlier this year, he averaged 9.8 points per game and maxed out at 13.6 in a single game.
I agree with Daugherty, who contends Levis is a streaming option for matchups like his Weeks 14-15 dates with the Jaguars and Bengals.
And what about tight end Chig Okonkwo, who set a new career-high in receiving yards Sunday?
Don't get too excited.
As noted above, all 70 of his yards came from a game-winning touchdown catch in the fourth quarter.
Jahnke added the Titans' schedule for tight ends is great over the rest of the season, but Okonkwo is averaging 2.2 receptions per game this season.
About that schedule . . . Four of the Titans' six remaining games are against teams with losing records, so there are some winnable games down the stretch. Winning all six of their remaining games is an extreme long shot, but Callahan believes his team is going to make some noise for the rest of the season . . .
Trending Up At The Right Time
As ESPN's Eric Moody suggested this week, Tampa Bay's backfield combination of Rachaad White and rookie Bucky Irving continues to produce, but figuring out which runner will have a more significant game week to week is next to impossible.
Both backs carried the ball 12 times in Sunday's lopsided win over the New York Giants, and third-stringer Sean Tucker even added a 1-yard touchdown in the first quarter.
But Irving finished with an impressive 27.1 fantasy points behind 87 yards, a touchdown on the ground, and six catches for 64 yards through the air.
Irving also set season-highs in snap share (55 percent) and route rate (59 percent) for a game with White active.
According to Dvorchak, Irving bested both marks in his Week 6 spot-start without White available, but he set new high-water marks in most volume last week when looking at games with the whole backfield healthy. His 20 percent target share was a new career-high with or without White.
The timeshare has been an issue.
It's fair to wonder how many investors trusted Irving enough to start him in the best fantasy performance of the season.
While I don't recommend chasing points, I am keen on chasing productive players with legitimate roles in potent offenses.
Tampa's offense scored on five of its first six possessions in New York, including three straight touchdown drives over second and third quarters. The four TD drives went 70 yards, 82 yards, 86 yards, and 95 yards. The Bucs outgained New York 450 yards to 245.
That's pretty potent.
Better still, I like players in potent offensives with favorable matchups. And according to ESPN's Mike Clay, the Bucs have the second-best schedule for running backs the rest of the season.
As Moody summed up, "With matchups against Carolina and Las Vegas coming up, Irving is firmly in the RB2 conversation . . ."
This And That
Trajectory Altered?
Did Bryce Young earn the right to start the rest of the season in Sunday's loss to the Chiefs?
As ESPN.com's David Newton notes, head coach Dave Canales has been careful not to name Young the starter each week until evaluating the film.
No further need.
The top pick of the 2023 draft had his best game, considering the opponent, and deserves to play out the season.
NFL.com's Kevin Patra noted that Young came off the bye week looking as confident as he ever has in a Panthers uniform. "The former Heisman Trophy winner splashed big plays, made pinpoint passes, dropped loopers into the bucket, and zipped darts over the middle," Patra wrote. "He finally played like he was back at Alabama: Loose and confident."
Young completed 21 of 35 passes for 263 yards and a TD while taking two sacks against a good Chiefs defense.
He handled the blitz, in particular, like a seasoned pro. He was blitzed on 38 percent of dropbacks. He was 11 of 13 for a season-high 135 yards with a touchdown against five or more defenders.
It still came in a loss, but Carolina needed to see this type of performance from Young.
Now, the question is whether he can build on the performance or whether it was a flash in the pan. Young may have already made it unlikely the Panthers will use their first-round pick in 2025 on his replacement. But continued solid efforts will cement that.
The Panthers play the Buccaneers on Sunday . . .
Receiver Rising
Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba provided most of the offense on a day in which Seattle couldn't run the ball. The second-year receiver continued his breakout with six catches for 77 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 16-6 win over the Cardinals.
It was an otherwise nondescript game. Geno Smith was up and down, and his protection was shaky at times. Ken Walker III had some big plays after getting hurt in the first half. DK Metcalf made a few big plays. But JSN came through with the game-changing plays the Seahawks needed in a defensive battle.
The former first-round pick has been the Seahawks' most productive player over the past three weeks, with 366 receiving yards and three touchdowns. That yardage total is the second most by a Seahawks player in any three-game span within a single season in franchise history, only trailing Hall of Famer Steve Largent in 1984.
That's three straight big performances, thrusting Smith-Njigba, currently WR8 on the season, toward a 1,000-yard campaign. . .
A Floor Play?
Vikings wideout Jordan Addison had a huge day, catching seven passes for a career-high 162 yards and a touchdown. The Vikings finally made an opponent pay for the attention it was paying to Justin Jefferson, but he managed only seven receiving yards in regulation.
That would have been a career low before Jefferson caught a 20-yard pass in overtime.
Allen Lazard, Demarcus Robinson, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling all have a 25-point game this year. Jauan Jennings has two.
But as Dvorchack pointed out, Jefferson doesn't have a single 25-point game this season.
He's still WR4 on the season, but Jefferson's 16.9 points per game ranks ninth at the position. That's the floor play we never expected, and it's certainly not what we drafted . . .
Tight End Yin And Yang
Tight end Trey McBride finished with the best game of his career. He had 133 yards on 12 catches, surpassing the 131 yards he had against Atlanta last season.
McBride reached 100 yards early in the third quarter, giving him two 100-yard games this season . . .
Meanwhile, Brock Bowers failed to score 10-plus fantasy points for the first time since Week 4.
According to Zachariason, the rookie's 22 percent target share was lower than usual but still not an outlier game for Bowers. Instead, he had a 40 percent catch rate, his lowest of the season . . .
Wide Open
According to Jahnke, Travis Kelce was the only Chiefs wide receiver or tight end who played more than 65 percent of the team's offensive snaps in Carolina. Nonetheless, it was fellow tight end Noah Gray who ended up with four receptions for a team-high 66 yards and two touchdowns on four targets.
Gray now has two touchdowns in back-to-back weeks in a development that can't be ignored in fantasy leagues.
As Footballguy Sigmund Bloom suggested, he may not continue to be more valuable than Kelce, but Gray can still have startable value if he's Patrick Mahomes' preferred red-zone target.
And if you're wondering why Mahomes was looking at him instead of Kelce, Gray had 11.9 yards of separation on his first touchdown, which is the most on a Chiefs receiving touchdown in the past two seasons . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
In Sunday's win over the Raiders, Courtland Sutton repeatedly burned Vegas defensive backs, providing easy targets for Bo Nix.
Sutton has returned to being one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL. Sunday, he generated eight catches for 97 yards and two touchdowns, his fifth consecutive game of 70-plus yards receiving and at least six catches.
It was Sutton's first career two-TD catch game.
Patra went on to suggest it's no fluke that as Sutton became a more significant part of the offense in the past month, Nix's performance and confidence have grown. The wideout makes the rookie's life easier. He can win one-on-ones and can fight back to 50-50 balls.
Zachariason notes that Sutton has been a weekly top-10 wide receiver in three of his last four games. He's seen target shares of 29, 31, 33, 25, and 26 percent over his previous five games.
Meanwhile, Nix is averaging 21.2 points per game over his last eight games.
As Moody noted, Nix scored 19.4 fantasy points against the Raiders on Sunday, becoming just the third Broncos rookie to record three straight games with multiple passing touchdowns. Better still, he has the sixth-best rest-of-season schedule for fantasy quarterbacks . . .
The Bad
As ESPN.com's John Keim noted, Washington's offense powered its 7-2 start. Now, it's responsible for its past two losses.
Dallas' defense entered the game ranked 29th in scoring and 23rd in yards, but Washington managed only 319 yards, surpassing 300 for the first time in three games.
The offensive line is banged up, and in the past three games, its running backs have averaged 3.2 yards per carry and gained 181 yards combined.
Jayden Daniels, who was sacked four times and hit on eight plays, did his best to make it a one-man show (he led the team in rushing with 74 yards) and eventually did, but he struggled, completing 1 of 9 passes for 4 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions, when under pressure.
He completed 24 of 29 passes from a clean pocket for 270 yards and a touchdown.
The bulk of Daniels' production through the air came in the fourth quarter when he completed 13 of 16 passes for 193 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception after throwing for 81 yards and an interception across 22 attempts through the first three quarters.
Sunday's performance extended Washington's midseason rut. Having lost the last three games, Washington is now seemingly out of the NFC East title picture . . .
The Ugly
How much did the release of Daniel Jones lead to Sunday's blowout loss to the Buccaneers? According to ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan, it's hard to imagine it wasn't a significant factor.
The Giants benched their starting quarterback, saw him step in as a scout-team safety during a Thursday walk-through at practice, and released him by Friday.
It had an effect.
Tommy Devito hardly provided the "spark" or energy that coach Brian Daboll thought it would while his team fell behind 23-0 by halftime.
The Bucs scored the first 30 points of the game on their way to a 30-7 loss that dropped the Giants to 2-9 on the season. After the game, rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers didn't hold back the frustration that he was feeling about the way things were going for the team.
Nabers called the Giants "soft as f---" while talking to reporters in the locker room after the game and said he felt he couldn't do anything to help the team avoid its sixth-straight loss because the ball never came his way before the result was in hand.
"I mean, it's just soft man," Nabers said.
Nabers finished the day with six catches for 64 yards and said he doesn't know why the team is in such a bad place. He did share that he doesn't think it has anything to do with Jones or Devito.
"Obviously, it ain't the quarterback," Nabers said. "Same outcome we had when DJ was the quarterback. Take a look. Take a look: It ain't the quarterback."
It's looking like Drew Lock will get a chance to get Nabers and the rest of the offense back on track against the Cowboys today. We'll see if things don't get any better, but for now, it's fair to say this offense is as ugly as Nabers thinks it's soft . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, I hope you have a fantastic Thanksgiving day and weekend, and I'll see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
