Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
The Fix Is In?
As ESPN.com's Courtney Cronin reported, Shane Waldron was fired as the Chicago Bears' offensive coordinator less than 10 months after being hired.
The Bears announced the firing Tuesday, one day after head coach Matt Eberflus promised "changes" and "adjustments" for the struggling Bears. Passing game coordinator Thomas Brown has been promoted to offensive coordinator.
"After evaluating our entire operation, I decided that it is in the best interest of our team to move in a different direction with the leadership of our offense," Eberflus said in a statement released by the team. "This decision was well-thought-out, one that was conducted deliberately and respectfully. I would like to thank Shane for his efforts and wish him the best moving forward."
Waldron had come under heavy scrutiny in Chicago due to the offense's overall performance and the recent struggles of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
The Bears have lost three straight games, scoring a meager total of 27 points over that stretch, and are averaging just 277.6 yards per game, the third lowest in the NFL.
Despite overhauling most of their offensive coaching staff and dedicating high draft capital and free agent resources to upgrading the talent on offense, including using the No. 1 pick on Williams, Chicago has underperformed through 10 weeks of the season . . .
Underperformed An Understatement
The Bears rank near the bottom of the NFL in points scored (24th), yards per carry (28th), yards per pass (30th), total yards (30th), third downs (31st), and yards per play (31st).
In Sunday's home loss to the New England Patriots, Williams completed 16 of his 30 pass attempts for 120 yards, his lowest passing output since throwing for 93 yards in his NFL debut against the Tennessee Titans. Collectively, Chicago's offense was 1-of-14 on third down (7 percent), its worst mark since 2012.
Williams was also sacked nine times by the Patriots, which brings his total from the past three games to 18. It brings his season total to 38 sacks, the second-most for a rookie QB from Weeks 1-10 since 1970 (Houston's David Carr had 49 in 2002).
It all prompted Cronin to suggest that, coming out of Sunday's loss, the offense "is broken" and Williams has looked worse in each of the Bears' three straight losses. His accuracy issues were already a problem as he entered Week 10 with the second-highest off-target percentage in the NFL, but the pressure has added to that.
As a result, Chicago has gone 23 straight drives without scoring an offensive touchdown and averaged 2.6 yards per play.
Why It Matters
The ripple effect is felt by fantasy managers invested in Chicago's receiving corps. According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, the Bears haven't produced a top-20 performance at wide receiver in PPR formats since Week 6. The man many of us drafted as a WR2, DJ Moore, only has one of those top-20 games this year. He had six last year, playing with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent.
It all goes back to Williams' production.
According to Pro Football Reference, Williams ranks 28th in traditional passer rating, 30th in QBR, 32nd in completion percentage, 33rd in sack percentage, and 30th in adjusted net yards per attempt among qualified quarterbacks. As The Athletic's Adam Jahns wrote, "Those are awful numbers for a quarterback who was taken with the first pick and was expected to be better than that regardless of any first-year struggles."
A change had to be made somewhere. Waldron was the obvious choice for Eberflus . . .
And Apparently Others
The decision to move on from Waldron was reportedly preceded by an effort from some players to make it happen.
Marc Silverman of Waddle & Silvy on ESPN 1000 posted this piece of insight on Twitter: "After talking to a few people with knowledge of the situation, players went to [coach] Matt Eberflus & [G.M.] Ryan Poles asking them to make a change at offensive coordinator."
The number of players who lobbied for change wasn't specified, but if it happened, it may have helped to tip the scales and something happen.
As Profootballtalk.com reminded readers, in September, tight end Marcedes Lewis told Jay Glazer of FOX Sports that multiple players went to Waldron directly, asking for him to coach them more aggressively . . .
But Wait . . . There's More
Silverman's tweet had another wrinkle: "There have also been a few veteran players requesting Bagent starts."
After talking to a few people with knowledge of the situation, players went to Matt Eberflus & Ryan Poles asking them to make a change at offensive coordinator.
— Silvy (@WaddleandSilvy) November 12, 2024
There have also been a few veteran players requesting Bagent starts. https://t.co/h3QSrhZjQ1
Assuming Silverman's information is correct, it's fair to wonder if anything changes with a new coordinator.
And that's the key because there is no change coming at quarterback.
Eberflus told reporters on Monday that Williams will remain the starter. And PFT's Mike Florio contends, despite any changes that the Bears might make, they're not going to be benching or otherwise giving up on Williams any time soon . . .
What Can Brown Do For Williams?
Even if they're not giving up on him, it's clear that Williams' development has taken a wrong turn. As Jahns suggested, the organization had to change something to correct his path.
Brown will be Eberflus' third offensive coordinator in three seasons. He was initially hired as the Bears' passing game coordinator after being interviewed as part of the team's offensive coordinator search, which ended in Waldron's hiring.
Of course, this is not a new situation for Brown, who was the Panthers' offensive coordinator last season.
He took over play-calling duties from former coach Frank Reich before Reich took them back. Reich was fired after a 1-10 start, with rookie quarterback Bryce Young struggling. Brown took over as the Panthers' play-caller after Reich's dismissal.
"Thomas is a bright offensive mind who has experience calling plays with a collaborative mindset. I look forward to his leadership over our offensive coaching staff and his plan for our players," Eberflus said.
It all sounds good, but . . .
This Probably Isn't Over
As Florio put it, "The offseason objective likely will be to find a head coach who has a plan for getting the most out of Williams, who arrived with great fanfare and with the promise of being the franchise's first franchise quarterback since Sid Luckman."
Of course, the Bears would need to find the right man to replace Eberflus, and their track record of filling that position isn't great . . .
He's Back
The Indianapolis Colts are going back to Anthony Richardson as their starting quarterback, starting with the game Sunday against the New York Jets, coach Shane Steichen announced Wednesday.
Steichen said Richardson, benched in late October following a game against the Texans where he asked to come out of the game for one play because, as he later told reporters, he "was tired," would remain the starter for the rest of the season.
The switch back to Richardson comes two days after Steichen had said veteran Joe Flacco would start the game at MetLife Stadium.
But Steichen also said that in making the change from Richardson to Flacco three weeks ago, the veteran gave the Colts the best chance to win.
It didn't play out that way.
The Colts are 1-3 with Flacco starting, including 0-2 since the official change.
Against Buffalo, Flacco became the first player in the past five years to throw a pick-six on his team's first offensive play of the game. He was also the first player this season to throw an interception on each of his team's first two possessions of a game. That was en route to the three-interception day.
So, Flacco committed six turnovers (four interceptions, two fumbles) in the losses to the Vikings and Bills.
So if the idea of forgoing Richardson's development, something all involved knew was necessary, was worthwhile as long as it meant wins, it became less so with Flacco not winning.
Steichen said that while he talked to owner Jim Irsay and general manager Chris Ballard, ultimately, it was his decision to return Richardson to the starting role.
"We made it very clear to him that he's our starting quarterback going forward."
Steichen also said he was pleased with what he saw from Richardson over the last two weeks.
"It's the attention to detail in everything he does," Steichen said. "It's got to be a higher standard. Over the last two weeks, he's made strides in those areas . . ."
Better scoring would be great as well.
Remember, Richardson was QB5 in Week 1 with 26.1 points. He was exactly the player we drafted him to be.
However, the numbers fell off precipitously; he was QB25 in Week 2 with 9.9 points before slipping to QB31 in Week 3 with 5.1 points.
We know that Week 1 Richardson exists. But we'll need to see it again before we can play it . . .
Purdy Good
According to NFL.com's Kevin Patra, Brock Purdy earned every one of his season-high 353 passing yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's win in Tampa Bay, overcoming an aggressive Buccaneers defense that blitzed and registered QB pressures at the exact same rate (42.9 percent).
He did so by spreading the ball around the field, connecting with five different pass catchers for three-plus receptions each, and starting the day with a 46-yard catch-and-run touchdown scored by rookie Ricky Pearsall.
Purdy's best play -- and the most significant of all -- came on second-and-10 from the Tampa Bay 11, in which Purdy dropped to pass and held the ball for 8.62 seconds, scrambling left and heaving a perfectly placed pass to George Kittle in the back corner of the end zone for a go-ahead touchdown.
On a day when nothing came easy, that score felt like the 49ers had finally broken through.
They needed the entirety of regulation to emerge victorious. While Christian McCaffrey's 2024 debut certainly gave San Francisco a boost, the 49ers wouldn't have left Tampa with a win if not for Purdy's timely play.
Worth noting, the 49ers offense recorded season highs in yards after the catch (182), YAC over expected (+76), and 20+ YAC plays (four) against the Buccaneers.
The fantasy outcomes tell the story.
Purdy finished the day as QB5 with 23.8 fantasy points; McCaffrey was RB11 with 16.7; all three wideouts, Ricky Pearsall (WR13 with 17.3 points), Jauan Jennings (WR15 with 16.3 points), and Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR24 with 12.6 points) all finished in WR2 territory; and George Kittle was TE6 with 14.7 points.
That's every fantasy-relevant player delivering on expectations.
The only player who didn't show up was Jake Moody. The second-year kicker missed three field goals Sunday, including two from 45 or more yards out, and allowed the Buccaneers to stay in the game through the end. Moody's third miss appeared to spark a confrontation on the 49ers sideline between Samuel and the kicking unit, underscoring what has already been a strange season for the 49ers in the vibes department.
Fortunately for Moody and the 49ers, he was able to sneak his final attempt inside the right upright to send San Francisco home a winner, but not without concerns about the kicking unit's reliability going forward . . .
Full Speed Ahead
McCaffrey wasn't eased into action in his return from Achilles tendinitis. He had 13 of the team's 15 running back carries. While the Buccaneers' defense held him in check on the ground, McCaffrey put together an RB1 outing thanks to his receiving production.
He finished with 107 scrimmage yards and should improve as the season progresses.
"That's the third time I've had pads on in eight weeks," McCaffrey said. "So just getting back into a groove, that was really good for me to do. I think there's a couple things that maybe I didn't feel like myself 100 percent, but that's normal when you haven't played in a long time. I'll learn and grow from those and just keep trucking along."
At 5-4, the 49ers remain in the mix in the NFC West, but the next three games -- against Seattle, Green Bay, and Buffalo -- will likely determine if there's any hope for one final playoff push.
While it's true the 49ers did try to give him some rest in the first half, with Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo combining for a handful of snaps, expect McCaffrey to handle his usual high-volume role in the future . . .
Speaking Of High Volume
As Zachariason pointed out, Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has scored 21-plus fantasy points in each of his last five games, bringing his per-game average this season to 19.1.
He's currently RB3 on the year.
Based on my interest in volume, you know where this is going.
Robinson played in 78 percent of the Falcons' offensive snaps Sunday, among the top five games of his career.
According to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, part of this was game script related, as the Falcons have lost all eight games in his career when he's played over 75 percent of the team's offensive snaps. He's the clear receiving back over Tyler Allgeier, while Allgeier tends to see more snaps in the Falcons victories.
So being behind in the loss to New Orleans was a factor, but Jahnke contends that even accounting for the game script, Robinson still played a little more than usual and has been trending in that direction over the last month. That helped him to 116 rushing yards, which was the second-best for him in a game in his career, and his second career game with two rushing touchdowns.
Robinson is averaging 15.5 carries and 4.1 receptions per game. His 19.6 touches per game put him on pace for 333 touches on the year. For perspective, McCaffrey led the NFL with 339 touches (albeit in 16 games) last season.
It's enough for Jahnke to suggest that Robinson "could be the best fantasy running back during the fantasy playoffs . . ."
This And That
Surprise!
As my friend Zachary Krueger over at NBC Sports wrote, "The Broncos finally ordered the code red on Javonte Williams."
Krueger went on to explain that after weeks of averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry as the Broncos lead back, Williams was relegated to strictly backup duty in the Broncos' Week 10 loss to the Chiefs.
Enter Audric Estime.
As ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold noted, the rookie running back had a season-high in carries (14) Sunday as the Broncos' leading rusher -- his previous high was five -- mainly working between the hash marks, where the Broncos have struggled to run.
Jahnke reminded readers that Estime landed on injured reserve after briefly appearing in Week 1. He only played a few snaps in the last four weeks but averaged 6.3 yards per carry in his limited opportunities. Despite the limited work, he had four explosive runs compared to eight by Williams and six by Jaleel McLaughlin, and the latter two had many more opportunities.
On Sunday, McLaughlin started the game with Williams coming in for third down. The team stuck with Williams on the second drive and stuck with passing the ball. On the third drive, Estime joined the rotation.
Shortly after that, he took over the rotation.
Over the last three quarters, Estime played 24 of a possible 41 snaps, Williams played nine exclusively in passing situations, and McLaughlin played three.
Estime's 46 percent snap share was significantly higher than his previous high of 10 percent, and, as Zachariason pointed out, Estime's 82.4 percent running back rush share was the highest from a Broncos running back this season.
Meanwhile, Jahnke believes there is still a small chance the Broncos will take a hot-hand approach and say Estime had the hot hand this week, so maybe someone else has it in Week 11. But Jahnke contends there is a greater chance Estime will continue to earn more opportunities . . .
A Bigger Surprise!
Without receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, the Saints turned to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kevin Austin Jr., and Dante Pettis to help fill the void.
But it was Valdes-Scantling, who signed a few weeks ago, who got the job done, running past the Falcons' secondary for 109 yards and two TDs on three first-half catches.
Valdes-Scantling became only the second receiver to gain 100 yards versus the Falcons this year (Rashee Rice did it in Week 3). MVS also became the first Saints player since Brandin Cooks in 2016 to score two touchdowns and have more than 100 receiving yards in a half.
The surprising part, of course, is he didn't drop any.
According to ESPN's Bill Barnwell, Valdes-Scantling has had five drops on passes traveling 30-plus yards in the air since 2018, which is more than any other player . . .
Über Alles
With three 10-plus-yard runs against the Panthers in Munich this past weekend, Tyrone Tracy Jr. is the fourth time in six starts that the rookie running back had at least three runs of 10 or more yards. He has added explosiveness in the run game to the Giants' offense, starting ahead of Devin Singletary.
Tracy finished with 103 yards rushing on 18 carries, but his final one resulted in the fumble that cost the Giants the game.
Still, as ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan suggested, for the most part, Tracy has been a rare bright spot this season . . .
Also in Munich, three days after getting a four-year, $33 million extension, Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard had a career-high 103 rushing yards after first contact on his way to a career-high 153 yards and a touchdown. It's fair to wonder how much we'll get to see of Jonathon Brooks, who should make his debut when the Panthers come off the bye for Week 12 . . .
Can't Score?
According to ESPN.com's Adam Teicher, the Chiefs' rushing attack, which was productive since running back Kareem Hunt arrived early in the season, gave Kansas City little to work with against the Broncos. Hunt rushed for 35 yards on 14 carries.
The Chiefs have been good in the red zone this season because they were running the ball well inside the 20. But they scored just one touchdown on four red zone trips on Sunday.
Help is coming, though.
Isiah Pacheco was designated to return from IR earlier this week. He's not going to play against the Bills this week, but he will be taking over for Hunt soon enough . . .
Can't Not Score
According to NFL Research, Jalen Hurts has eight rushing TDs in his last four games, which is the most by any QB in a four-game span in the Super Bowl era . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
Arizona won a fourth consecutive contest by wiping the floor with the Jets, and, as Patra suggested, Kyler Murray was sensational, avoiding pressure and making tough throws look routine.
The QB didn't have a pass hit the ground after the first quarter, completing his final 17 balls before taking a seat midway through the fourth quarter of the blowout.
Murray finished 22 of 24 for 266 yards, with a passing touchdown and two rushing scores.
After three straight TDs to open the game, the only thing that stopped the Cards from making it to pay dirt on all four first-half drives was the waning clock that forced a field goal. Arizona rolled up 406 yards and a whopping 28 first downs without barely even trying in the fourth quarter.
Murray completed each of his last 17 passes.
The odds of Murray completing each of his last 17 passes based on the probability of each attempt: 1 in 408 (0.245 percent) . . .
By the way, the Cardinals allowed fewer than 10 points for the second consecutive game in Week 10. Arizona allowed double-digit points in 52 straight games before Week 9 (longest active streak).
The Cardinals are very good . . .
The Bad
Sam Darnold has started all nine of the Vikings' games this season, helping them to a 7-2 record with what, in many ways, is the best season of his career. And he'll continue as Minnesota's starter.
But should he start for your fantasy team after being intercepted three times while forcing the ball to receiver Justin Jefferson in Sunday's win over the Jaguars?
Darnold leads the NFL with 13 turnovers, and two of his interceptions against the Jaguars occurred in the end zone. Were it not for four field goals from kicker Parker Romo in his NFL debut and a trio of fourth-quarter takeaways from the Vikings' defense, Darnold's performance would have been far more impactful.
As it was, the Vikings became only the fifth team in NFL history to win a game in which they committed at least three turnovers and failed to score a touchdown, per Pro Football Reference's historical database.
In fact, teams with zero touchdowns and at least three turnovers were 0-147 since 2010.
The Vikings are the first team to win such a game since the Packers did it against the Vikings in 2006.
The Ugly
The Ravens and Bengals gave NFL fans yet another thriller on Thursday Night Football, with the former pulling out a 35-34 victory in front of the home crowd.
But as SI.com's Jon Alfano noted, the final play highlighted a more pronounced issue this year: Bad officiating.
In this case, after the Bengals scored a touchdown with 38 seconds remaining, they decided to go for two and the win rather than play for overtime. Joe Burrow's pass to Tanner Hudson fell incomplete. Still, fans in Cincinnati and elsewhere were furious about two seemingly missed penalties on the play, first a hold against tight end Mike Gesicki and second a face mask against Burrow.
Even Terry McAulay, Amazon Prime Video's rules analyst, felt like there should've been flags on the play.
Terry McAulay felt the Ravens got away with 2 penalties on the game-deciding 2-point attempt.
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) November 8, 2024
"It was clearly defensive holding...and that does look like forceable contact to the head of the quarterback," McAulay.
"Too many games end this way. They just do," Al Michaels. pic.twitter.com/Pl7WqjdWr6
Following that explanation, legendary play-by-play announcer Al Michaels spoke for all of Fantasy Nation about the state of NFL officiating.
"Too many games end this way," Michaels said. "They just do. You miss calls. The whole thing. It's so frustrating to the fans. So frustrating."
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
