Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
Ready Or Not?
The San Francisco 49ers officially opened Christian McCaffrey's 21-day practice window on Monday afternoon, which means he has three weeks to prove he's ready to be activated from injured reserve to the 53-man roster.
McCaffrey, who went on injured reserve on Sept. 14 after dealing with tendinitis and a calf injury that began hampering him in early August, has been practicing on a limited basis without any apparent setbacks this week. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said on Wednesday that McCaffrey has had "no pain," an encouraging sign for his availability on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
While backup Jordan Mason has fared well in McCaffrey's stead -- Mason is third in the league in rushing yards per game (85.6) and sixth in yards per carry among running backs (5.1) -- the Niners have struggled to finish drives in the red zone. They rank 28th in the NFL in red zone touchdown rate, scoring on 48.6 percent of drives inside the opponent's 20.
McCaffrey scored 21 total touchdowns in 2023 on his way to Offensive Player of the Year honors.
It's no surprise that McCaffrey's return was a welcome sight, with one teammate telling ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner that McCaffrey's fresh legs had him moving in fast forward compared to everyone else during a team drill. "It's such an amazing feeling to see that 2-3 out there doing his extensive warmup and a million high knees he does before practice," left tackle Trent Williams said. "It was great seeing him."
It all sounds great, but . . .
This Isn't Our First Rodeo
While McCaffrey and the 49ers have the luxury of seeing how he fares in practice before putting him back in any games, fantasy managers won't have that level of visibility.
We know how that went last time.
On the Friday before the team's Week 1 Monday Night game, McCaffrey told reporters he had no doubt that he would play against the New York Jets despite being limited in practice all week. McCaffrey went so far as to say he expected to get his usual heavy workload.
General manager John Lynch, also speaking the Friday before that game against the Jets, said McCaffrey would "be out there and ready to roll."
Instead, McCaffrey was ruled out 90 minutes before kickoff . . .
We Won't Get Fooled Again?
Fantasy managers who have been holding McCaffrey all season eagerly awaiting his return will have decisions to make. Perhaps as soon as this weekend.
So, let's put all this in perspective.
The 49ers are 4-4 and currently in third place in the NFC West. As SI.com's Grant Cohn suggested this week, their best chance to make it into the playoffs is to win the division, and they've already lost to the Cardinals and Rams, both of whom have easier schedules than the 49ers the rest of the way.
If they were to lose to the Buccaneers this weekend, their playoff chances would drop significantly.
Given that, Cohn is guessing the 49ers would like McCaffrey to play if he's capable.
But Cohn, who was the lone skeptic when it came to McCaffrey's outlook in late August and early September (while the rest of the media world and most of fantasy nation bought into the "move along, nothing to see here" company line), continues to question the orthodoxy.
As part of that, Cohn reminded readers this week, "McCaffrey hasn't been able to practice for more than a week at a time without reinjuring his Achilles. He practiced for a week during training camp, felt sore, and the 49ers shut him down for a month. Then he practiced for a week leading up to the season opener against the Jets, felt sore once again, and the 49ers shut him down for the next two months.
"So he still has a ton to prove."
McCaffrey still has two practices to make it through this week before he can check the "making it through a whole week without reinjuring himself" box . . .
What's The Right Approach?
All that said, it's heading in a good direction. Assuming he's activated for Sunday's game -- and if not this week, the next, or even the week after, how should we view McCaffrey? Should he automatically be inserted into the top 10 at his position?
Given the history this season, the easy answer is "it depends."
I do believe we'll benefit from a media that was burned the first time around. We'll all be watching this carefully. I expect closer scrutiny and increased skepticism from the local and national press and us as fantasy managers.
Cohn has already started that process, suggesting that if McCaffrey manages to play against the Buccaneers, the 49ers would be wise to use him judiciously and not wear him down like they did last season.
And Shanahan indicated last week that McCaffrey's workload when he returns will also be based on how he looks in practice.
"The expectation is to see how he is when he gets back and then evaluate him as he goes," Shanahan said last week. "Of course, the hope is that everything just goes back to normal and it's perfect. That's what we're all striving for, but you've got to play that out smartly and you've got to evaluate that each day.
"What we see with our own eyes, what he tells us. That'll be something we constantly are working through."
A Reminder
The volume McCaffrey has enjoyed since his arrival in San Francisco is what locked him into the conversation for the first pick overall, regardless of format.
He had 272 carries in 16 games in 2023, tied for second-most in the NFL. His 17 carries per game ranked fourth in the league. Add in 67 catches, and he got 339 turns to rack up fantasy points last season.
And rack them up he did.
McCaffrey averaged 24.7 fantasy points per game, well ahead of the pack.
He scored at least 25 points five times, more than 30 points three times, and more than 40 points twice.
Similar usage after he was dealt to San Francisco in 2022 allowed him to average 22 points per game as a Niner, including five games with at least 25 points.
Asked about his possible workload, Shanahan told reporters on Wednesday: "It definitely could [be a normal workload], but it also definitely might not . . ."
Final Arguments
McCaffrey's spot in the initial Week 10 Footballguys Projections is reasonable enough. He opened the week slotted as RB14 but has moved up to RB6 as the week progressed. Assuming he's active and available, I'd play him based on potential upside.
ESPN's Dan Graziano, who reminded readers that Shanahan's history with McCaffrey tells us that if his star running back is available, he is basically going to get all of the backfield work. Graziano doesn't believe the Niners would bring McCaffrey back if they weren't sure he could handle his normal workload.
But even if his workload is limited, San Francisco's issues in the red zone make it likely the team would lean on him for high-leverage opportunities in scoring position.
Either way, it's a great matchup; the Buccaneers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs and third-most over the past four weeks . . .
So, Is He Ready Or Not??
Asked when a decision will be made regarding whether McCaffrey will play against the Bucs, Shanahan said this: "Like publicly? Kickoff."
Actually, it'll be 90 minutes before kickoff -- unless he'll be inactive and not play.
Fortunately, the Niners have an early afternoon kickoff in Tampa Bay. We'll have a wider range of fallback options if circumstances dictate and there can be no equivocation: Have a backup plan in place . . .
Turning Up The Volume
For the third time this season, Eagles running back Saquon Barkley was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week. This time, Barkley rushed for 159 yards with a touchdown and caught three passes for 40 yards with a TD in Philadelphia's 28-23 victory over Jacksonville.
Barkley also made one of the plays of the year, going backward to hurdle over a defender during the contest.
Play of the year? Saquon Barkley backwards hurdle over a defender might be the most disrespectful highlight I’ve seen in a long time: pic.twitter.com/ZgoLmovLqU
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) November 3, 2024
So, should Barkley be in the conversation for Offensive Player of the Year?
Absolutely.
As Profootballtalk.com suggested, "Through eight games, Barkley has clearly been one of the league's best offseason additions."
He entered Sunday with the second-most scrimmage yards in the league and tacked on nearly 200 more, along with a pair of touchdowns. Sunday marked Barkley's fifth game with 100-plus rushing yards in 2024, the first time in his career that he's had five such games in the first eight contests of a season. Eagles running backs only had five such games combined between 2022 and 2023.
He's now rushed for 925 yards with six touchdowns and caught 20 passes for 146 yards with two TDs. His yards per carry average has jumped from 3.9 last year to 5.9 this season.
His 34.9 fantasy points this week topped the NFL. It leaves him as RB3 on the season with an average of 21.9 points per game . . .
A Predictable Outcome?
None of this should come as a huge surprise, especially in light of what we know about volume -- as demonstrated by some of the most reliable fantasy assets at the position last year. Players like McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne Jr., Rachaad White, and Kyren Williams, who finished as last year's RB7 but was RB2 over the final five games thanks to a 25 touches per game over that span.
When the Eagles bucked the trend of devaluing running backs this offseason by signing Barkley to a three-year, $37.75 million contract in free agency, they told us what was coming.
"I mean, the guy touches the ball 300 times a year, hopefully," Eagles GM Howie Roseman said in explaining the move. "There's not a lot of other skill position players that are touching the ball that many times and having that effect."
Derrick Henry, with 280, led the NFL in carries last year. McCaffrey, with 339 touches, led the league in that category.
Barkley is averaging 19.6 carries and 2.5 catches per game.
At his current pace, he will finish the season with 333 carries and 375 total touches, which puts him in prime position to finish this year as the RB1 overall.
Barkley and the Eagles will try to keep things rolling against the Cowboys on Sunday . . .
Even More Volume
With Derek Carr returning to the lineup for the first time since Week 5, the Saints quarterback relied heavily on Alvin Kamara in Sunday's loss to the Panthers.
Kamara touched the ball 35 times and was involved seven times during New Orleans' 11-play, 70-yard scoring drive in the fourth quarter that was capped off by Foster Moreau's go-ahead touchdown catch.
The running back was essential to the Saints' offense, with 29 carries for 155 yards. He also contributed six catches for 60 yards.
It was Kamara's third career game with over 100 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards. Despite the result and the team's record, Kamara has been one of the bright spots for New Orleans.
Kamara, who also reached his eighth consecutive season with over 1,000 scrimmage yards, is currently RB2, averaging 21.2 points per game (a 44-point Week 2 keeps him ahead of Barkley on the year).
He's averaging 21.7 touches per game, a pace that would lead to 368 touches on the year . . .
This And That: Quarterback Edition
Gaining Momentum
As NFL.com's Nick Shook noted, Sunday marked a third straight week in which Justin Herbert looked like the quarterback we knew him to be before the difficulties began to mount last season.
Herbert was excellent against a stingy Cleveland defense, overcoming a pressure rate of 52.9 percent to complete 7 of 11 passes while pressured for 106 yards and one touchdown. He was equally as good when free from pressure, completing 11 of 16 passes for 176 yards and a touchdown.
No matter what the Browns defense did in terms of pass rush, Herbert dealt all afternoon, capitalizing on blown coverages to find Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston for 28- and 66-yard touchdown passes, respectively, and even helped Johnston record his first career game over 100 receiving yards.
He finished Sunday with a 2-0 TD-INT ratio, marking the sixth straight start he completed without throwing an interception. It's the longest active streak in the NFL and tied for both the longest streak of his career and the Chargers' all-time franchise record.
Better still, for the first time in 2024, the Chargers had a truly explosive air attack that produced significant points.
According to Next Gen Stats, Herbert was most productive on passes over 10 air yards against the Browns, completing 7 of 12 downfield attempts for 196 yards and two touchdowns. Herbert has reached 100-plus passing yards on downfield attempts in three straight games since the Week 5 bye (14.8 yards per attempt) after totaling just 145 passing yards on such attempts in Weeks 1-4 (6.0 yards per attempt).
Herbert has been QB6 over the last three weeks . . .
A Tale Of Two Halves
Despite not having Amari Cooper, the Bills had a big offensive showing -- especially in the second half -- to finish off their division rivals.
Josh Allen was being limited all game by the Dolphins' two-high coverages, forcing him to check down and find underneath options.
He also was nicely hemmed in as a scrambler, outside of one 14-yard run late in the second quarter. But even with an interception, Allen ended up leading the team to a win.
There were a couple of blown opportunities. Allen's INT was off the hands of rookie Keon Coleman as the Bills were about to go in for a score, and they had a touchdown called back by penalty, one that NFL.com's Eric Edholm characterized as "shaky."
Nonetheless, Allen came on strong in the second half, throwing for 156 passing yards and three TDs, including a pretty fourth-and-goal pass to Mack Hollins and another to TE Quintin Morris for a go-ahead score in the fourth quarter.
He did most of his damage on shorter throws in this one.
According to Next Gen Stats, Allen completed 20 of 32 passes for 175 yards and all three touchdowns on passes of 5.0 air yards or fewer. As a result, he recorded a career-low 3.7 air yards per attempt, leading to his highest percentage of yards coming after the catch (81.7 percent).
The good news?
Even on a day he struggled at times and didn't have all his playmakers on board, Allen finished inside the top 10 at his position -- as QB9 with 20.1 points . . .
A Tale Of Two Halves Part 2
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones had zero yards passing in the first half of Sunday's loss to the Commanders.
He was 4-of-6 passing for zero yards but with a touchdown.
It was his first home touchdown pass in 672 days, dating back to 2022 Week 17.
According to ESPN Research, Jones became the first player since 1978 to have a passing touchdown and zero passing yards in a half (minimum five pass attempts).
It's hard to win that way in today's NFL.
Jones was better in the second half, going 16-of-20 for 174 yards. He had passing and rushing touchdowns in the second half and finished the week as QB3 overall with 26.4 points.
But how can fantasy managers play him?
Even going up against a generous Panthers defense in Munich this Sunday, it's hard to count on Jones to get the job done.
Looking at the weekly finishes this year, Jones has delivered QB1 numbers four times. The other five games? His best finish is QB24.
It's fair to wonder if a poor showing against Carolina wouldn't prompt the team to make a change over the Week 11 bye. At some point, turning to Drew Lock would make sense if head coach Brian Daboll doesn't have complete confidence in his quarterback . . .
In a related note . . . Even with Jones running as hot and cold as any quarterback in the league, receiver Malik Nabers continues to deliver.
The rookie is WR7 on the season in terms of fantasy points per game with 18.4 per outing . . .
Spectacular Enough
Is quarterback Jayden Daniels a legitimate MVP candidate? According to ESPN.com's John Keim, he should be, considering his importance to Washington's offense.
They're 7-2 in large part because of him.
On Sunday, Daniels was not spectacular, but he made big-time throws and managed the game at a high level. Daniels completed 15-of-22 passes for 209 yards and two touchdowns.
What's notable here is Daniels completed every deep pass he threw against the Giants, finishing 3 of 3 for 91 yards and a touchdown on passes over 20 air yards. Daniels has generated +25.5 expected points added on deep passes this season, third-most in the NFL (behind Aaron Rodgers, +26.5, and Sam Darnold, +25.7).
Daniels has nine touchdown passes, only two picks, and four rushing scores on the season. As tight end Zach Ertz said recently: He does not play like a rookie . . .
The Struggle Is Real
Can Houston snap out of their offensive funk? In the past three games, the Texans' offense has averaged only 19 points per game, contributing to a 1-2 record during that stretch. The pass blocking is at the root of their inability to score, as quarterback C.J. Stroud has been sacked 14 times since Week 7.
Against the Jets last Thursday, Stroud was sacked eight times, and, as ESPN.com's DJ Bien-Aime suggested, no quarterback can survive that type of barrage.
Worse still, no quarterback can deliver solid fantasy totals facing that kind of pressure, especially one without two of his top-three receiving assets.
Stroud is QB14, averaging 15.1 fantasy points per game this year, and Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason pointed out he hasn't had a QB1 (top-12) performance in five weeks . . .
For what it's worth, KPRC.com's Aaron Wilson reports that Nico Collins, eligible to return from injured reserve, has passed all tests on his hamstring and has suffered no setbacks. Sources tell Wilson the wideout has regained the speed and mobility necessary to be ready to go.
So it's now a matter of when, not if, he'll be designated for return. Team officials are still determining if they'll activate him for this week's game against the Lions. But it's fair to wonder how effective the team's deep-passing attack can be if Stroud doesn't get more time . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
As Profootballtalk.com noted, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins' second game with the Chiefs showed why the team made a trade with the Titans to acquire him last month.
Hopkins caught four passes in the first quarter and then hauled in a 35-yard strike from Patrick Mahomes II despite having defenders all around him. That catch set up a one-yard touchdown, and Hopkins added a second touchdown with just under five minutes to play.
Mahomes found Hopkins once more on the game-winning drive in overtime, and the veteran ended the night with eight catches for 86 yards.
In his postgame press conference, Hopkins said he was "more comfortable" than he was in his Chiefs debut, and Mahomes thinks even bigger things are ahead for his new teammate.
"I think as he figures out the whole entire offense, he'll get even better because there's some times he's going places, and I'm like, man, there's a time and a place for that, but that's what makes him great," Mahomes said. "You give him a chance down the field, he makes a play . . . To have a guy like that that can go up and make that catch in a crowd of defenders is a special type of player."
In addition to his own numbers, Hopkins's presence is helping Travis Kelce.
The veteran tight end had 14 catches for 100 yards on Monday night and has 24 catches for 190 yards over two weeks with the wideout in the lineup . . .
The Bad
As ESPN.com's Marcel Louis-Jacques asked this week, what are realistic expectations for Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill moving forward?
The NFL's leading receiving duo over the past two seasons combined for just two targets in the first half of Sunday's loss to the Bills, both of which went to Hill.
Louis-Jacques noted that both players are on pace to finish with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time as teammates.
The Dolphins' remaining schedule features six teams ranked 16th or better against the pass. Until they face more favorable coverages, Louis-Jacques thinks it's safe to assume both players will continue on this path . . .
The Ugly
The Jaguars had 31 yards of offense (15 rushing, 16 passing) in the first half of Sunday's loss to the Eagles, the second fewest for a first half in franchise history. The lowest is 18 yards, which came against the Green Bay Packers in the fourth game of the franchise's expansion season in 1995.
As a result, the Jaguars fell behind 22-0 early before making a game of it.
As ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco notes, that has been an issue for much of the season as they fell behind Green Bay (10-0), New England (10-0) and Chicago (21-3).
It's hard to play from behind all the time; now the Jaguars have to do it relying on second-year wide receiver Parker Washington and practice-squad receivers Austin Trammell and Elijah Cooks. The offense seems to get going when the Jaguars go up-tempo, so maybe that's a potential change.
Still, going up against an aggressive Minnesota defense with Trevor Lawrence in danger of missing the game (and perhaps more) with a shoulder injury, I don't see a lot of meat on the fantasy bone here this week . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
