Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
Colts Switching Horses
The Indianapolis Colts are benching Anthony Richardson and turning to Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback. The benching came two days after Richardson asked to come out of Sunday's game against the Houston Texans for one play because, as he later told reporters, he "was tired."
This isn't a temporary move, according to head coach Shane Steichen, who did his best to thread the needle between the immediate and long-term outlook during a Wednesday press conference.
The coach told reporters Flacco is the team's starting quarterback "going forward." However, Steichen added that the move to Flacco should not be taken as a sign that the team is throwing in the towel on the second-year player.
"Joe gives us the best chance to win right now," Steichen said. "With that being said, we're not giving up on Anthony by any means. We're really not. He's a young player with a ton of talent. He'll use this time to continue to develop and grow as a professional."
That's the public side of the story. It's safe to say there's more to it . . .
Behind The Scenes
Internally, the Colts maintain that Richardson's time as their franchise quarterback is not over.
According to ESPN.com's Stephen Holder, one team source characterized the benching as a "growth opportunity" and insisted that the Colts "are not quitting on Anthony."
"That will be the story, but that is not the case," the source told Holder.
Richardson has made 10 NFL starts and remained the NFL's youngest starting quarterback at 22, even in his second season with the Colts. He was drafted before his 21st birthday and after just 13 starts at the University of Florida.
So his need to develop and grow as a professional has been baked into the cake . . .
A Significant Shift
That's why the Colts had been insistent that Richardson needed to play. It fueled their decision to start him as a rookie. He was named the starter over Gardner Minshew II in training camp in 2023 after just one preseason game.
Therefore, the move to bench Richardson marks a significant departure from the organization's previous thinking.
So if the one thing he needs more than anything else to develop -- reps -- has been taken off the table, we need some perspective on where Richardson stands.
How Bad Has It Been?
There's no way to sugarcoat Sunday's performance in Houston.
As NFL.com's Kevin Patra reported, Richardson misfired repeatedly, missing passes behind, low, and every which way but on target. The QB finished 10-of-32 passing for 175 yards with a TD and an interception and took five sacks. One of those completions went for 69 yards to a wide-open Josh Downs for a touchdown. Richardson earned 106 yards on his other 31 attempts.
His 31.3 completion percentage was the second-lowest by any player in a single game with 30-plus pass attempts over the last 10 seasons.
Beyond that, Richardson has the NFL's worst completion percentage in 2024 (44.4) and over the last two seasons (50.2, minimum 150 attempts). According to ESPN Research, his current 44.4 percent is the fifth worst in a player's first six games of a season since 2000 . . .
So it's bad, but . . .
About Last Week
ESPN's Ben Solak thinks we might having an entirely different conversation about Richardson if just a few plays in Houston had gone differently.
Richardson had a scramble drill Alec Pierce touchdown called back on an offensive pass interference downfield. He missed Adonai Mitchell by about a finger's length on a nine route. He hit running back Tyler Goodson in both hands at the goal line on yet another nine route, but it was dropped. Downs came inches short of a second scoring grab.
"Richardson was not as bad as you think he was on Sunday -- not nearly as bad," Solak explained. "He doesn't play a style of football that is conducive to high completion percentages. Even if his wideouts had made plays in this game, he would have completed about 50 percent of his passes. It just would have been a win, and nobody would have screenshotted his box score for likes."
It's worth remembering that Indy lost this game by three points -- 20-23 . . .
Bigger Picture
In his Oct. 22 Gutcheck (released before Sunday's loss in Houston), Footballguy Matt Waldman wrote the following about the Colts QB: "I've watched Richardson's nine games in the NFL. Nothing about his performance has me panicking. Analysts, former players, former coaches, and fans are more emboldened than ever to label Richardson as 'raw.'
"I'm firm in my assessment that Richardson is not raw; he's inexperienced, and there's a big difference."
Waldman dug deeper, comparing Richardson's first nine starts to current NFL stars Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, as well as former standout Cam Newton.
The numbers for all four players at the same point in their respective careers are close. As Waldman noted, "There were few significant differences between them . . ."
The Tap Heard Round The World
Assuming the Colts know all of the above, it's fair to believe the tap was a factor -- even if Steichen initially said it was not.
Richardson told Steichen he "needed a break right there" as he left the game in the third quarter, tapping on his helmet.
Watch: #Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson explains why he subbed out of the game in the third quarter pic.twitter.com/1aHHUAbOBV
— WISH-TV News (@WISHNews8) October 27, 2024
Steichen did not defend Richardson's decision to leave the game, saying Monday that he had a private conversation with the second-year quarterback, adding, "You can't take yourself out, and it's a learned experience for him, and he's got to grow from it."
Colts center Ryan Kelly, the longest-tenured player on the current roster, said Richardson "knows it's not the standard that he needs to play up to, and the rest of the team holds him to."
Steichen on what it will take for Richardson to get his Colts starting role back: "Keep developing and growing as a professional . . ."
It's fair to read behind the lines here, but the reaction of observers and analysts doesn't require that.
Former Colts punter and current ESPN star Pat McAfee spoke for many in his field when he said, "I've never seen that before. I've never seen that in my life before out of a quarterback."
McAfee added: "You'll get your ass fired, brother."
McAfee was right, and the ask-out was a factor here, whether anybody wanted to admit it publicly . . .
Here's Where We Stand Now
The 4-4 Colts now will turn to Flacco, 39, who replaced the injured Richardson earlier this season and passed for 716 yards, 7 touchdowns, and one interception in parts of three games.
Is Flacco a lock to succeed?
His late-season run with the Browns last year suggests he's capable. Flacco, then a free agent, was signed and went 4-1 as the starter in December. He threw 13 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and over 1,600 yards over those five games, infusing life into a once-struggling offense.
But the Flacco-led Colts lost to the then-winless Jaguars three weeks ago. The team's defense didn't do him any favors in that one. Also, he'll be playing with the same defense.
In addition, Flacco and the Colts offense will have their hands full with the Vikings' Brian Flores-led defense. With an offensive line that struggled with the noise in Houston on Sunday to face a loud environment and crafty defense that is top 10 in scoring on that side of the ball, the Colts might need Flacco and the passing attack to deliver . . .
Meanwhile, Richardson will need full-speed reps to get better at some point, but the Colts are prioritizing the team's present over his future for the time being and hoping they can wind up better off in both time frames.
Will he ever get those reps?
Asked that very question on Wednesday, Steichen's response was vague and telling. "I can't predict the future," he said. "That'd be great. We'll see . . ."
Eating Ws
Don't look now, but we just got a hint of the aforementioned Flacco-esque late-season magic in Cleveland.
As the 39th Browns starting quarterback since 1999, Jameis Winston faced what NFL.com's Nick Shook characterized as "the unenviable task of attempting to lift Cleveland's offense out of the darkness that consumed it over the first seven weeks of the season."
Winston was up for the challenge -- albeit one made easier by an already-generous Ravens pass defense (Baltimore entered the game having surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL) that was further depleted by injuries and attrition in the secondary -- completing 27 of 41 passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 9.6 air yards per completion.
As Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason noted, Deshaun Watson hadn't gotten above 200 passing yards all season, and the last time he threw for 300 yards was in January of 2021. Winston's 9.6 air yards per completion were the most by a Browns quarterback since Flacco in Week 16 of last season (9.6).
Winston became the first Browns quarterback to finish with 300-plus passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions since Week 11 of 2022 (Jacoby Brissett).
The numbers didn't come without some typical Winston risks, but he escaped the worst possible outcomes.
Most importantly, Winston invigorated a largely dormant Browns passing attack, delivering passes on time with confidence that Watson lacked in his seven starts. That meant getting Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and Cedric Tillman (seven catches, 99 yards, two touchdowns) involved and finally challenging an opposing defense.
The result: A season-high 29 points, a go-ahead touchdown pass in the game's final minute, and a massive upset win over one of the AFC's top teams that snapped a five snapped a five-game losing streak.
"[Eminem] said, 'You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow, this opportunity lasts once in a lifetime,'" Winston replied when asked what it meant to lead the team in his first start following an injury to Watson.
They'll look to move to 2-0 with Winston as starter next week when they host the Los Angeles Chargers -- a much tougher matchup than the Ravens.
Can They Keep It Up?
Cleveland reached 20 points for the first time in the entire season, and the offense had a rhythm and flow that hadn't been present.
More importantly, fantasy investors might have gained viable options in Tillman, Moore, and Jeudy, who previously hadn't been that.
As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke reminded his readers, Tillman spent most of the season as the team's clear fourth wide receiver, but that changed after the Amari Cooper trade.
In Week 7, he was a clear starter but still rotated out on 11 pass plays. Against the Ravens, he played an even higher percentage of the Browns' offensive snaps and was only off the field for three pass plays.
He has primarily taken Cooper's role as the clear X receiver, except he's taken that role to another level.
As Zachariason noted, Tillman has seen target shares of 25 percent and 22 percent over his last two games without Cooper, and he's scored a total of 47 fantasy points. Cooper has scored 43.6 points across his last five games in Cleveland.
Jahnke added, "Tillman was a speculative waiver-wire target last week, but after back-to-back great games, he should be one of the top waiver-wire targets this week in any league where he's still available."
But that doesn't mean others shouldn't be on your radar. All three receivers had high target shares; Tillman was the most effective, thanks to the two long touchdowns.
In this week's Gutcheck, Waldman also recommends Moore as a pickup. "Moore is the bargain you may have in hand if you couldn't land Tillman and need a starter . . ."
Welcome To The Big Time
As NFL.com's Coral Smith wrote on Sunday, "Nix has arrived."
Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix put together the best game of his young career, leading his squad to their fifth win in the last six games. Nix's second quarter did most of the damage, as the Broncos scored touchdowns on three consecutive drives of 55, 92, and 44 yards. Two came through the air, with the third courtesy of Nix's legs.
Nix had 220 passing yards in the first half of Sunday's win, more than he has had in all but one game this season (he had 246 passing yards in the Broncos' Week 2 loss to the Steelers).
He now has four rushing touchdowns on the season, leading his team. The onslaught slowed a bit after halftime with a lead established, but one more passing touchdown sealed the deal as Nix finished with highs in pass yards (284), touchdowns (3), and passer rating (124.2).
More than Sunday's numbers -- which came against a Carolina defense that was giving 6.7 points more per game than any other team and had given up multiple touchdown passes in six of seven games, head coach Sean Payton's confidence in the youngster is growing.
According to ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold, Payton has consistently said any questions about Nix's confidence and ability to bounce back from mistakes are misplaced. Against a tepid Panthers pass rush, Payton included more things Nix is comfortable with -- RPOs, rollouts, no-huddle, and in-breaking routes.
The positive results will likely lead to even greater confidence. Nix, currently fantasy's QB9, could build on that by going up against the Ravens, whose defensive shortcomings were outlined above.
A matchup against the Chiefs in Kanas City in two weeks might be a better measuring stick for Nix . . .
Hail Jayden
As ESPN.com's John Keim suggested, Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels delivered possibly the play of the year -- an unreal 52-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass to receiver Noah Brown.
Daniels looked fine playing through a rib injury that had the quarterback questionable entering the game. He threw for 326 yards and a TD while rushing for 52 yards on eight carries.
The offense couldn't get going in the second half, punting four times and missing a field goal. But with the game on the line, Daniels had something up his sleeve.
The rookie quarterback scrambled for 12.79 seconds and heaved the ball from the Washington 35-yard line with no time on the clock. The pass tipped off the hands of Tyrique Stevenson short of the goal line and into the waiting arms of Brown, who was standing alone in the end zone to give the Commanders an improbable 18-15 victory Sunday.
It was the fifth go-ahead Hail Mary TD in the final 10 seconds since ESPN began tracking them in 2006. At 52 yards, it was the second-longest game-winning TD pass by a rookie as time expired in the fourth quarter in NFL history, behind a 56-yard TD pass by Tim Couch to Kevin Johnson on Halloween 1999.
The rookie quarterback never even saw Brown make the catch.
"I just heard people screaming and our sideline rushing the field. That's how I knew," said Daniels, whose status was uncertain until hours before kickoff because of the rib injury. "That's kind of like a once-in-a-lifetime experience. Not too many people get to experience stuff like that."
In a related note: Not many fantasy managers get the return on investment those who landed Daniels as QB11 heading into the season . . .
This And That
Happy Holiday!
Sunday marked the fifth annual National Tight End Day celebration, and the informal event brought out the best from the position.
The Athletic noted that Atlanta's Kyle Pitts was a leading reveler, notching his first-career multi-touchdown game.
Pitts pulled in four passes for 91 yards against the Buccaneers. He tied his career-longest touchdown pass with a 36-yard grab, followed by a 49-yard TD catch to set his personal record.
Pitts' 25.10 fantasy points left him as TE2 on the week, his highest finish since his TE5 finish against the Buccaneers in Week 5 when he scored 15.8 points.
Given how the Falcons and Buccaneers have gone at it this season, it's fitting that this week's TE1 came in the same contest.
Tampa Bay's Cade Otton caught nine of his 10 targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns against the Falcons, recording a season-high 23.8 percent target rate.
Worth noting: Otton amassed most of his production from the slot, hauling in all five of his targets for 48 yards and a touchdown from such an alignment. He caught eight of his nine receptions and gained 78 of his 81 receiving yards and both of his touchdowns on short targets (0-9 air yards).
By the time it was all said and done, the list of tight ends scoring touchdowns on the fifth annual celebration of the position included Travis Kelce, who caught his first touchdown of the 2024 season against the Raiders, George Kittle, who helped invent the "holiday," Detroit's' Brock Wright and Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews and David Njoku also scored playing against each other, Denver's Nate Adkins and Adam Trautman, Tyler Conklin, Tucker Kraft, Evan Engram, and Dalton Kincaid . . .
And that doesn't include Minnesota's Josh Oliver, who unofficially got the ball rolling with a touchdown against the Rams on Thursday night . . .
Can He Play The Bucs Every Week?
Kirk Cousins has more touchdowns against the Buccaneers this season (eight) in two games than he does against the rest of the league (six) in six games. Cousins threw for a franchise-record 509 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 5.
On Sunday, Cousins was the first Falcons quarterback with three touchdowns in the first half since Matt Ryan in 2020 . . .
Nose For The End Zone
Jalen Hurts had his first career game with three or more rushing TDs and one or more passing TDs. He's the 13th player to achieve that in a regular-season game and the first since Taysom Hill (Week 5, 2022) . . . .
Rising Star
The Chargers traded up in the second round of the 2024 draft for performances like the one McConkey had Sunday against the Saints. He set career-high marks in receptions (six), yards (111), touchdowns (two), and receiving yards over expected (+55) Sunday. McConkey caught all three of his targets out of the slot for 84 yards and two touchdowns, generating the most receiving yards over expected (+51) on such targets by any rookie in a game this season.
He became the first Chargers rookie receiver with 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in a game since 2013, when Keenan Allen scored three.
Justin Herbert lauded McConkey in the days leading up to the game, saying that the wide receiver makes throwing the ball easy for him ; Sunday could be the beginning of a dominant pairing for the Chargers . . .
Speed Check
Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs reached a max speed of 22.03 mph on his career-long 70-yard rushing touchdown at 3:57 in the first quarter, which is the fastest top speed that any Lions player has reached as a ball carrier since 2016, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
According to ESPN.com's Eric Woodyard, it was also the longest rushing touchdown scored at Ford Field since former Lions RB Jahvid Best rushed for an 88-yard touchdown on Oct. 10, 2011 . . .
Speed Check 2
Drake Maye's top speed of 20.33 mph on his 17-yard TD run tied Jacoby Brissett (Week 3, 2016) for the fastest speed by a Patriots quarterback in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). They are the only two plays by Patriots quarterbacks over 20 mph over the last nine seasons . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
Titans receiver Calvin Ridley was featured in the Ugly section of the Week 7 Fantasy Notebook after catching zero passes on eight targets, tied for the most targets in a game with zero receptions by any player in the last 20 years.
In Week 8, Ridley got back on track, turning in the first 100-yard receiving performance of the season for the Titans. He did it in the first quarter. Two of Ridley's first three catches went for over 20 yards. The first seven times QB Mason Rudolph targeted Ridley, they resulted in completions, which was much higher than his 30 percent catch rate entering this week.
Ridley had totaled 183 receiving yards all season going into this one; he finished the game with 10 catches for 143 yards . . .
The Bad
The Jets suffered a brutal defeat at the hands of divisional rival New England, a team widely perceived as their lesser. The brutal part of the story is the self-inflicted nature of the defeat.
As NFL.com's Michael Baca suggested, calling Sunday's effort an unorganized mess wouldn't be unfair to a Jets offense that began the game struggling to even line up on time, earning several delay of game penalties that rendered the Jets rhythm-less, and it could've been even worse (interim coach Jeff Ulbrich took all three first-half timeouts by the end of the first quarter).
The miscues persisted in the second half, one being a Greg Zuerlein missed field goal from 44 yards out, which the Patriots turned into three points to take the lead on their ensuing drive.
Aaron Rodgers led a 70-yard TD drive to take back the lead in the fourth quarter, but the Jets' disorganization would be officially bookended on Sunday after a delay of game pushed back their failed 2-point conversion, which would've made it a six-point lead.
A frustrated Rodgers, who has yet to rebuild his connection with receiver Davante Adams, was then limited to watching his team give up a game-winning drive in a head-scratching defeat . . .
The Ugly
As noted above, the Bears were dealt a heartbreaking 18-15 loss by the Commanders thanks to an avoidable Hail Mary touchdown in the final seconds that dropped Chicago to 4-3 on the season.
USA Today's Alyssa Barbieri reported that while the Hail Mary was the talk of the game, another head-scratcher during a pivotal moment also bears criticizing.
Facing third-and-goal at Washington's 1-yard line, the Bears brought in offensive lineman-turned-fullback Doug Kramer, who lined up in front of Roschon Johnson as the lead blocker.
According to Barbieri, it's a play that's worked for Chicago on several occasions, and that was the expected play call. So imagine the shock when quarterback Caleb Williams handed the ball off not to Johnson but to Kramer, who proceeded to fumble the ball, which the Commanders recovered.
Bears receiver DJ Moore, who was being looked at in the medical tent during the play, admitted he was surprised by the play call at that moment of the game.
"I don't know the reason behind the play call," Moore said on Monday morning.
Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has come under fire for his poor outing as play caller against the Commanders, and Moore was asked if it's fair to wonder about the team's confidence in Waldron calling plays. While Moore believes that's fair for those on the outside, he said it's different for the players inside the building.
But that's not even the ugly part.
The ugly part is that head coach Matt Eberflus claimed he doesn't regret the play call at a pivotal moment in the game.
"We've worked that play since he's been in there," Eberflus said after the game.
They could have worked on it a little more . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
