Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
Best Offense In The NFL?
As NFL.com's Kevin Patra framed it this week, "There isn't an offense in the NFL that is more dangerous than that of the Lamar Jackson-led Baltimore band."
Patra's comment came after a battle between the NFL's highest-scoring teams. The Commanders came in at No. 1 in scoring and the Ravens at No. 2.
As BaltimoreRavens.com noted, pundits hyped up the potential "Game of the Year" as Jackson and Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels led early MVP discussions.
After a 30-23 win for the Ravens, in which they outgained the Commanders in yardage 484-305, it was clear which offense was better Sunday.
With Jackson on point, Patra contends the Ravens "can torture defenses in every way imaginable." The Ravens can pound you with the ground game or pick you apart through the air.
Against the Commanders, it was Zay Flowers dominating Washington on short and intermediate passes as Jackson and the offense racked up 484 yards and 28 first downs. A wide ball that was tipped and picked off and a three-and-out in the first quarter were the only things that slowed Baltimore.
Its final six possessions went touchdown, touchdown, field goal, touchdown, field goal, iced game.
The 2024 Ravens are the first team since John Madden's 1971 Raiders with 150-plus rushing yards and at least one rushing TD in each of their first six games of the season. They gobbled up 176 rushing yards on a day in which the reigning MVP threw for 323 yards.
When Jackson is right, this is the truest pick-your-poison offense in the NFL.
And make no mistake . . .
Lamar Is On Point
Jackson is putting together another MVP-like season.
The Ravens' 0-2 start was not great for his candidacy, but he's been on a roll since. In four straight wins, Jackson is fourth in completion percentage (70.3 percent), second in yards per dropback (9.1), has thrown eight touchdowns versus one interception, and has rushed for 236 yards -- most among quarterbacks.
In Jackson's past two games, wins over the Bengals and Commanders, he's thrown for 300-plus yards in each and amassed a combined 766 yards of passing and rushing.
He completed 20 of 26 passes for 323 yards with a touchdown and an interception against Washington. He added 40 rushing yards on 11 carries to finish as QB13 on the week with 18.9 fantasy points.
Even with a finish outside the top-12, Jackson remains the overall QB1 on the season with an average of 24.9 points per game . . .
Unstoppable
The Ravens continue to rely on the duo of Jackson and running back Derrick Henry. Washington's defense was ill-equipped to slow either of Baltimore's offensive stars.
Jackson and Henry combined for three touchdowns through three quarters to lead Baltimore to a 27-13 lead.
As Profootballtalk.com suggested, Henry continues to be everything the Ravens hoped he'd be when they signed him as a free agent this offseason.
The veteran's strong start to the season rolled on in Week 6. He ran 24 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns.
Henry, who was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for the second time in three weeks, has now scored nine touchdowns on the season, and he became the first player since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2005 to run for touchdowns in each of his team's first six games.
His 25.2-point performance on Sunday ranked fourth among all running backs. He's RB2 on the season with an average of 22.6 points per game.
And there's no sign he's slowing down.
As ESPN's Michael Wilbon said, "To me . . . [Henry] is completely unstoppable. He breaks the spirit and the will of the opposing defense."
To Wilbon's point about Henry, Kevin Eck of the team's official website notes it's often been said that Henry's punishing running style takes such a toll on defenders that they are no match for the bruising back in the fourth quarter.
The stats back it up.
According to Analytics expert Tej Seth of SumerSports, Henry is more efficient in the fourth quarter than in the first or second quarter this season. (Henry is most effective in the third quarter.)
Derrick Henry is the finisher™? pic.twitter.com/LqYO3sHQLt
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) October 14, 2024
ESPN's Ben Solak said defenses have zero interest in tackling Henry in the fourth quarter.
"The more game time passes, the better he gets," Solak wrote. "Each of the Ravens' past two wins have featured dagger runs by Henry late in the game.
"The effect of cumulative 'body blows' in the rushing game is something often cited by coaches but rarely measurable in data. The one back for whom the impact is clear and obvious is Henry."
One last thing: Henry is on pace to score 26 touchdowns this season . . .
Stop And Smell The Flowers
Meanwhile, Flowers is emerging as a slippery, shifty No. 1 receiver on pace for 1,136 yards.
He solidified that status with his second consecutive 100-yard game, recording a career-high in receiving yards in the first half alone (132 yards).
The issue is he can disappear, like he did in Weeks 3 and 4.
Flowers had just four catches for 30 yards over those two games, in which the Ravens went with a run-heavy offensive scheme,
If we take out those two weeks, Flowers is averaging 7.2 catches and 94 yards per game.
Heading into a Week 7 Monday night showdown against the Buccaneers, Flower should benefit from the matchup. The Sporting News notes that Tampa Bay has given up 100-plus yard games to Amon Ra St. Brown, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney. They have been fortunate to face several teams without their best receivers (the Eagles in Week 4 and Saints in Week 6).
With Flowers coming off a career-high 134 yards, TSN's Scott Davis thinks it's a no-brainer: "You have to ride the hot streak . . ."
Is Andrews Really Back?
Tight end Mark Andrews returned to the passing attack against the Commanders.
After the worst start of his seven-year career, Andrews recorded a season-high 66 yards on three catches and scored his first touchdown since Oct. 29, 2023. ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley described it as "A much-needed confidence boost for the three-time Pro Bowler, who averaged 24 receiving yards over his first five games this season."
The question is, should it give confidence to the fantasy investors?
According to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, while Andrews has caught more passes in the last two weeks, his role in the offense has stayed the same.
Andrews played 34 of 68 offensive snaps against the Commanders. Isaiah Likely was on the field for 46 snaps, while Charlie Kolar played 22.
Andrews was on the field for 100 percent of the snaps in 12 personnel (one back, two-receiver, two-tight end sets) and half the snaps in three-receiver, one-tight end sets. According to Jahnke, these numbers are very similar to every other game from Baltimore this season.
The difference against the Commanders came from Andrews running a route on 60 percent of Baltimore's dropbacks in Week 6. According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, that was Andrews' highest route participation since Week 2.
As a result, Andrews finished the week as TE6 with 15.6 fantasy points. It was his second top-10 finish of the year (he was TE10 in Week 2).
The easy explanation is the Ravens throw more in competitive games, like they've played against Kansas City, Buffalo, the Bengals, and the Commanders.
But Jahnke believes in most of the remaining games on the schedule, the Ravens won't need to pass as much. Assuming Andrews continues running a route on nearly 50 percent of the Ravens' pass plays while not running as many routes as Likely in most games, Jahnke sees Andrews as a "sell-high candidate."
Andrews is currently TE20 on the season with an average of 6.3 fantasy points per week . . .
The Rookie Uprising Continues
As mentioned above, Daniels couldn't keep pace with Jackson, but he played well against a defense that Patra wrote "can discombobulate young signal-callers."
On a day when the ground game was absent, Daniels' arm kept the Commanders in the contest in Baltimore as he threw for a career-high 269 yards and two scores.
He now has 1,726 total yards (322 rushing) and 10 touchdowns (four rushing).
I've covered Daniels extensively in recent Fantasy Notebooks, as you'd expect of a rookie who's currently QB3, scoring an average of 22.1 points per game.
But what about some of the other rookie signal callers?
Caleb Climbing
As NFL.com's Jeremy Bergman noted, four weeks removed from a Sunday Night Football dud in Houston, Caleb Williams lit up London with one of the most exceptional performances in Bears QB history.
The No. 1 overall pick continued his hot run of play through the air and on the ground, throwing four touchdowns and leading Chicago to its third straight win.
Williams played with confidence in and out of structure, showing confidence on tight-window throws and creativity out of the pocket.
More importantly, as ESPN.com's Courtney Cronin pointed out, Williams is doing what coaches have emphasized for weeks: Playing point guard.
In addition to his 226 passing yards, Williams moved the chains with 56 yards on four scrambles, displaying a veteran's knack for knowing when to seek and avoid contact. He proved resilient, too, bouncing back from an awful interception with an 85-yard TD drive.
One week after the Williams and DJ Moore connection came alive, the rookie threw two TDs each to Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet.
Chicago displayed the balance it's been searching for with another 91 rushing yards and a touchdown from D'Andre Swift, and it heads into the bye week feeling confident about the state of its offense.
Williams heads into the off week as QB11, scoring an average of 15.9 points per game.
That's one spot behind Texans QB C.J. Stroud (QB10) and ahead of Jalen Hurts (QB12) and Dak Prescott (QB13).
Williams will go up against Daniels when the Commanders host the Bears in Week 8 . . .
Bo Knows Something
As cohost of the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Pregame Show, I do a crossover spot with NFL Radio to share some fantasy opinions with their audience before kickoff.
This past Sunday, in response to a question from former NFL running back Robert Turbin about the Chiefs, I explained two things can be true: Patrick Mahomes II can be the best quarterback in the NFL while also being a run-of-the-mill QB2 for fantasy purposes.
While this is totally true -- and I laid out the case nicely in last week's Polarizing Players article with Gary Davenport -- it came off as a bit of a "hot take" in the moment. Turbin might still be looking to pick his jaw up off the floor.
Similarly, two things are true in Denver.
It's easy to overlook Broncos rookie signal caller Bo Nix -- unless he's yelling at Sean Payton. But nobody is currently arguing that Nix is a high-end NFL starter at this point.
Last Sunday, against the Chargers, Nix was intercepted on his first pass attempt. ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold noted the Broncos' lack of commitment to the run continues to hinder Nix, who entered Sunday 12th in the league in pass attempts and last in yards per completion. Denver's lack of explosive plays, with only three completions of at least 30 yards this season, has made it too easy for defenses.
Nonetheless, as NBC Sports' Denny Carter pointed out, Nix is fantasy's sixth-highest scoring quarterback over the past two weeks thanks almost entirely to his rushing.
"His running production -- Nix has 180 yards and three touchdowns on the ground - confirms my most ardent preseason takes and has made Nix more than a little bit interesting in superflex formats," Carter wrote. "Nix has logged a rushing attempt on a healthy 20 percent of his dropbacks over the past two weeks."
Carter further suggested it also matters where Nix is running.
The first-round pick, who also has four TD passes over the past two weeks, has nine red-zone rushes this season, third most among quarterbacks. His four inside-the-ten rushes are tied with Jalen Hurts for the most among signal callers.
"Nix has a quirky but sustainable fantasy profile for now," Carter added.
Is there hope for more here?
Since the Broncos' 0-2 start in which Nix recorded one total touchdown and four interceptions, he's tallied six total touchdowns -- including five touchdown passes -- with the aforementioned interception over the last four weeks.
In the fourth quarter against the Chargers, Nix led the Broncos to three scoring drives as part of a furious comeback that ultimately fell one possession short.
After going 4-of-14 for 27 yards, a pair of sacks, and an interception through three quarters, Nix threw for two touchdowns and nearly 200 yards in the final frame as he posted a 143.2 quarterback rating.
During the Broncos' previous three-game win streak, Nix played clean football and showed an ability to keep the ball out of harm's way.
This week, Nix faces a Saints defense that ranks 23rd in points allowed, 32nd in total defense, and that just allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 325 yards and four touchdowns (albeit with three interceptions).
With injuries on offense putting further pressure on the New Orleans' defense, it's going to be interesting to see if Nix can show signs of continued growth . . .
Enter The Drake
None of the previous 2024 first-round rookie QBs to debut this season -- Williams, Daniels, and Nix -- had a touchdown pass in their first start.
Drake Maye had three.
The Patriots' previous starting QB, Jacoby Brissett, had just two TD passes in five starts.
As NFL.com's Eric Edholm explained, Maye didn't completely solve the Patriots' offensive issues. Still, he at least offered some hope of improvement in his first NFL start, throwing for 243 yards and those three scores, even with some obvious missteps and significant obstacles.
First and foremost, Maye plays behind an offensive line that has started six different groups in six games. New England started a center, Ben Brown, who arrived via the Raiders' practice squad last week, and they had to make a change at left tackle mid-game, with Zach Thomas replacing Vederian Lowe after he'd been knocked out with an ankle injury on the Patriots' sixth offensive play.
Still, the Patriots had two TDs in five games entering Sunday and failed to cross the 20-point mark. At least Maye gave them a spark, even if the turnovers and sacks hurt the Patriots' chances of losing.
Worth noting, Maye's first career touchdown pass to Kayshon Boutte (40-yard TD) traveled 51.7 yards in the air, the longest completion by a Patriots quarterback over the last three seasons. The last Patriots quarterback to throw a longer completion was Mac Jones to Kendrick Bourne in Week 7 of the 2021 season against the Jets (52.2 air distance).
What should we expect this week?
Assuming he's good to go, Maye, who is expected to play despite a sore knee, gets a shot at the same Jacksonville defense that gave up those four TD passes to Williams this past week . . .
This And That
Streaking
Lions running back David Montgomery finished Week 6 with two touchdowns -- from 16 yards and 8 yards -- against Dallas a day after reaching a two-year extension with Detroit.
His streak of eight straight games with a TD broke a tie with Billy Sims (1980-81) for the longest in franchise history . . .
Jordan Love has multiple passing touchdowns in 10 consecutive games played, including playoffs, joining Aaron Rodgers (14) and Brett Favre (11) as the only Packers QBs since at least 1970 to have 10 or more consecutive games with multiple passing TDs.
He is the 10th NFL QB since 1970 to have multiple passing scores in 10 straight games, including playoffs. It's tied for the longest such streak since Tom Brady (13 straight games in 2020-2021) . . .
Colts QB Joe Flacco had his eighth straight regular-season game with at least two touchdown passes. That's tied for the NFL's longest active streak with Jordan Love. Flacco's numbers Sunday weren't as robust as his effort against Jacksonville the previous week, but he was still effective, completing 23 of 38 attempts for 189 yards.
Anthony Richardson is expected to return as the starter this weekend . . .
Surprise!
In Tampa Bay's first five games of 2024, running back Sean Tucker had taken just two carries and caught one pass.
With Rachaad White sidelined by a foot injury, that changed in New Orleans.
Bucky Irving and Tucker both ended Week 6 with 14 carries, and Tucker had three targets to Irving's two.
But Tucker finished the Buccaneers 51-27 victory with 192 yards from scrimmage -- 136 rushing along with three catches for 56 yards -- with two total touchdowns.
And despite Irving playing 21 more snaps than Tucker, and, according to PFF, running 14 more routes, it's Tucker that earned NFC Offensive Player of the Week . . .
Explosives
After receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. went down with a concussion, tight end Trey McBride popped off, finishing with eight catches for 96 yards (all coming after Harrison's injury).
McBride had four explosive plays in the process, with plays of 27, 13, 12, and 13 yards.
Whether Harrison misses Monday night's game against the Chargers or not, it's worth noting that McBride's target share in the four full games he's played this season is 25 percent . . .
Speed Check
According to Next Gen Stats, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow hit a max speed of 19.86 mph on his 47-yard touchdown run. It was the longest run of his NFL career and the longest by a Bengals QB in franchise history.
It was also his fastest speed as a ball carrier since he entered the league in 2020 . . .
Unsolved Mysteries
Why can't Daniel Jones and the Giants win in prime time?
As ESPN.com's Jordan Raanan noted, it's wild to contemplate, but Jones is now 1-14 in prime-time games. That is the worst winning percentage for any quarterback in prime time since the 1970 merger. And coach Brian Daboll is 2-7 in prime-time games.
Raanan added each game has its own story, but Jones (205 yards passing, 0 TDs, 1 INT) did not play his best Sunday night. He missed several key throws and tossed a bad interception near the end zone in the first half. The bottom line is that he consistently hasn't been able to elevate his play in the biggest moments in front of a national audience.
One thing is certain: I'll be taking this into account when determining who I'm In and Out on in future weeks . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
As ESPN.com's Tim McManus asked this week, "What can Brown do for you?"
For the Eagles, A.J. Brown can do a lot.
McManus went on to note the star wideouts' return to the lineup provided Jalen Hurts with the trusted target he so desperately needed in recent weeks, finishing with six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown caught against tight coverage (0.3 yards of separation, per Next Gen Stats) midway through the second quarter.
In fact, four of Brown's six catches had less than 1.5 yards of separation at the time of catch, averaging 1.3 yards of separation, tied for the second-lowest separation in a game by Brown since joining the Eagles in 2022.
Whatever the case, the Eagles were noticeably better with Brown and DeVonta Smith (three catches, 64 yards, and a fourth-quarter touchdown) back on the field, and when Hurts and the Eagles were aiming to seal the win, the QB turned to Brown for an incredible over-the-shoulder catch for a 40-yard gain.
More telling, Hurts completed one deep pass in three games without Brown. As NBC Sports' Kyle Dvorchak noted, Huts has completed four long balls -- three of which were touchdowns -- in his two games with Brown active.
Even with the Eagles likely to make it the Saquon Barkley show as he returns to MetLife Stadium to take his former team, expect Brown to continue making hay against a Giants defense that's allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers, where Brown aligns 75 percent of the time . . .
The Bad
Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence said he and his team have put the embarrassing 35-16 loss to the Bears behind them. Next up are the Patriots on Sunday at Wembley Stadium.
One thing that would help Lawrence and the Jaguars turn things around would be his pass catchers catching passes.
As SI.com's John Shipley explained, every quarterback in football has to deal with drops from his pass-catchers, no matter their age or level of experience. But it is an indisputable fact that no quarterback has dealt with more drops -- or has lost more big plays due to drops -- than Lawrence since 2021.
It was an issue his rookie year, and it has flared up again every year during the Doug Pederson regime.
The drops continued last Sunday; this time, they set the tone for the day.
The Jaguars had to settle for three points on the opening drive due to a dropped touchdown from Gabe Davis, but that wasn't it. Davis would drop another touchdown in the second half, and he wasn't alone, as Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr. would also dropped what would have been touchdown passes.
Those four drops would have made a difference for the team and for fantasy investors . . .
The Ugly
Titans receiver Calvin Ridley was visibly frustrated in the locker room following his team's 20-17 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.
Ridley caught zero passes on eight targets in the close loss, tied for the most targets in a game with zero receptions by any player in the last 20 years.
The 29-year-old receiver said part of the issue was not being involved early in the contest.
"I need some in the beginning of the f---ing game, too. S---'s getting f---ing crazy for me," Ridley told reporters. "It is what it is. I sucked today -- have got to be better. But I got to get the ball a little earlier in the game so I can be in the game. So I can play well also."
Sunday marked the third game in Ridley's career that he didn't catch a pass. The previous two times each came with Atlanta. His zero catches on eight targets marks the third time that's happened since 2011 (newly-minted Buffalo wideout Amari Cooper in 2015 and Cincinnti's Tee Higgins in 2023) . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
