Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
Jets Change Course
As ESPN.com's Rich Cimini framed it, "Upset by the team's 2-3 start, New York Jets owner Woody Johnson made a stunning and unprecedented move Tuesday morning, firing coach Robert Saleh and naming defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich as the interim head coach."
It was the first in-season coaching change in 25 years of ownership for Johnson, who consulted with general manager Joe Douglas but called it "my decision and mine alone." Johnson said quarterback Aaron Rodgers had no input into the coaching change. He said he spoke to Rodgers after Sunday's game, claiming Saleh's status or a potential move wasn't discussed.
Saleh finished with a 20-36 record and zero playoff appearances.
The Jets have a 13-year playoff drought, the longest active drought in the NFL, but they began the season with Super Bowl expectations, mainly because of Rodgers.
Now, in addition to holding the locker room together, Ulbrich faced some big decisions as the Jets begin preparations for Monday night against the Buffalo Bills.
First Things First
Ulbrich quickly made the call to switch things up on offense. He announced in his Thursday press conference that passing game coordinator Todd Downing will take over offensive play-calling from coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who will stay on the staff.
It was a move that Saleh reportedly considered before he was fired. He probably should have considered it sooner because the struggles on offense have pained Johnson.
Sources told Cimini the owner forced Saleh to change offensive coordinators after the 2022 season, replacing Mike LaFleur with Hackett. The Jets traded for Rodgers, who, after missing nearly the entire 2023 season with a torn Achilles, has failed to elevate the unit this season.
Rodgers has a strong relationship with Hackett, but Ulbrich told reporters the QB took the news of Hackett's demotion well.
"He understood the decision, and he was supportive of the decision," Ulbrich said of Rodgers. "And I'm fortunate for that."
How Bad Has It Been?
As Athlon Sports' Doug Farrar understated, "Rodgers on the field this season has not been the Rodgers we have come to expect."
Rodgers currently has the NFL's seventh-worst passer rating among qualified quarterbacks at 81.6. His 61.0 percent completion rate is seventh-worst in the league, and his air yards per attempt of 6.4 is third-worst.
Farrar added this isn't all on Rodgers. "It's not working, though it's not all his fault, Hackett is not calling a modern offense," Farrar wrote.
Indeed, Rodgers has just 70 passing attempts with pre-snap motion of any kind this season. While that makes sense in that he has always preferred to read defenses from a more static offensive picture, Farrar contends Rodgers is not bringing the tools to the field anymore that would allow those static pictures to succeed.
It showed in London.
According to NFL.com's Jeremy Bergman, "Rodgers resembled the banged-up 40-year-old he is and was a step slow on the Tottenham turf early on against a familiar opponent in Minnesota."
Rodgers threw two picks in the first half -- one an awful read on a short crosser that led to an Andrew Van Ginkel pick-six and the other a lazy overthrow of his preferred target, Allen Lazard, downfield. The veteran signal-caller looked down for the count after getting twisted underneath a group of Vikings defenders in the third quarter -- he got checked out in the injury tent -- but returned and oversaw a comeback attempt that fell short.
Rodgers might have given fantasy investors a bit of optimism by leaning into his connection with Garrett Wilson, who paced New York with 101 yards on 13 catches and 22 targets.
But overall?
New York is currently No. 25 in points scored and No. 27 in total yards. The club is No. 32 in rushing, having gained just 402 yards on the ground.
Fixing Hall
Already in a severe slump, Breece Hall was held to 23 yards on nine carries by the Vikings. That makes 27 yards on 19 carries over the past two games. Hackett gave up on the running game when it would've made sense to give more opportunities to rookie Braelon Allen.
Going into the season, the plan was to run the offense through Hall, but there's nothing there, putting a strain on Rodgers and the passing attack.
Hackett's rushing scheme lacked creativity; it's been predictable and might have been the strongest argument to change the play-caller.
Will the change make a difference?
Downing, in his second season with the Jets, served as offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans in 2021-22. In his first year as OC, the Titans finished fifth in rushing (141.4 yds per game) despite missing Derrick Henry for nine games.
So there's hope. Also, the sky isn't necessarily falling. Despite the recent slump, Hall still sits at RB10 on the season.
What's Next?
Can the Jets save their season by trading for Raiders receiver Davante Adams?
According to Cimini, it would make Rodgers happy, and they could use a partner for Wilson on the perimeter.
While Wilson broke out of his season-opening slump, Rodgers didn't get much help from Allen Lazard (three drops) or Mike Williams (two catches for 25 yards), who was invisible. Adams would help that.
The pass protection was shaky, as Rodgers (29-of-54 for 244 yards) took a pounding. He showed his toughness, but the Jets need more than Adams to turn around their season.
Bottom Line?
As CBSSports noted, "The Jets are 2-3 and have scored 93 points, the same point total from a season ago. New York is averaging 18.6 points per game and 1.73 points per possession, good for 25th and 19th in the NFL, respectively. The points per possession number is still better than it was a year ago, when the Jets were at 1.13 points per possession (31st in NFL)."
The difference, however, is obvious: Rodgers has been the man under center this year. In 2023, it was Zach Wilson . . .
Cousins' Falcons Finally Soar
A week ago today, the Falcons mounted a comeback to defeat the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. The comeback was led by Kirk Cousins, who passed for 509 yards, the first time he ever reached that milestone, breaking his personal best of 460 yards set two years ago.
In addition to finishing as QB2 on the week, Cousins also set a Falcons record for passing yards in a game, snapping a mark set by former Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan, who threw for 503 yards in 2016 against Carolina. It was just the 24th game in NFL history with at least 500 yards.
Falcons coach Raheem Morris said football is "all about confidence," and each week, he has seen Cousins become more confident coming off his season-ending Achilles injury in 2023.
For his performance, Cousins, NFC Offensive Player of the Week, completed 42 of 58 passes with four touchdowns and one interception. He targeted four pass catchers at least eight times in a back-and-forth game with five lead changes.
Is Atlanta's offensive performance sustainable?
It might not be the same level of success it had against Tampa Bay, but ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein believes it could be close.
Cousins looks healthy and said he felt more anticipatory on his throws, meaning he's starting to find a rhythm with Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts. The more that happens, the more fluid the offense should be, leading to more nights like Thursday -- even if we're not likely to see 550 offensive yards on the regular.
The Elephant In The Room
As FantasyPros' Josh Shepardson suggested this week, Bijan Robinson hasn't come close to living up to his draft position. He's scored only one touchdown this season and has failed to hit 80 scrimmage yards in three consecutive games. He currently sits at RB18 with 13.5 points per game.
While Tyler Allgeier remains a fly in the fantasy ointment, Robinson has handled 67 percent of Atlanta's backfield's 100 and run 116 routes versus 38 for Allgeier.
So the role is there. But with just 57 rushing yards, 3.6 receptions, and 30.2 receiving yards per game, Robinson's production is lacking.
Of course, we'll all continue playing the role; most of us are too invested not to.
But the good news here is that the Falcons head to Carolina to take on the Panthers this week.
The Panthers have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (120.6), the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.80), 4.0 receptions per game, 35.2 receiving yards per game, and 0.20 receiving touchdowns per game to running backs this season. Better still, they've allowed 165 points this season, the worst total in franchise history through their first five games of a season.
Investors should be holding the course here, with some additional optimism coming from Cousins and the passing attack hitting stride . . .
Burrow Hits Stride
Cousins, who finished as fantasy's QB2 in Week 5, wasn't the only passer to find his groove. The Bengals Joe Burrow looked like a man on a mission Sunday, throwing five touchdown passes en route to a QB3 finish.
Burrow rolled over a previously stingy Ravens defense, racking up 392 passing yards while hitting 30-of-39 attempts and playing like a guy who knew his team's season was on the line.
After issues early in the season, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were at full force.
NFL.com's Kevin Patra noted that the duo "tortured the Ravens' secondary on Sunday."
Chase pulled in 10 catches for 193 yards and two scores, including a remarkable 70-yard catch-and-run for one score. Higgins, meanwhile, added nine catches for 83 yards and two TDs.
Burrow was on the mark all game, throwing pinpoint darts into traffic and showing off superb deep accuracy. Early in the second half, the Ravens couldn't get Burrow and his crew off the field. Cincy scored TDs on three straight possessions while converting its first seven third downs of the half.
There is little question the Bengals offense can score with the best, but there's more to it than that . . .
Correlation Is A Thing
Despite the offensive fireworks, the Bengals still came up short in the overtime loss to Baltimore, largely thanks to a defense that couldn't contain the Ravens' offense.
And Cincy's struggles on that side of the ball are unlikely to change soon. As ESPN.com's Ben Baby put it, "At this point, the defense is what it is."
And it's bad.
The Bengals have allowed 32.3 points per game over their last four games, which includes a 24-point effort by the Panthers, who just got smothered by the Bears this past weekend. As Yahoo's Charles McDonald suggested, "It doesn't matter how many 50-yard touchdowns Burrow can throw to Chase and Higgins; if they can't stop anyone on the other side, they will continue to lose games."
The Falcons are also struggling on defense.
Specifically, Atlanta still can't get to quarterbacks.
The Falcons had one sack against the Buccaneers, and it was their only quarterback hit of the game. Atlanta's five sacks for the season are tied for last in the NFL. According to Pro Football Reference, its 14.4 pressure percentage entering Sunday was second worst, ahead of only Carolina, and its hurry percentage (3.4) was only better than that of Arizona and Cincinnati.
Of course, from a fantasy perspective, lousy defensive play is a bonus.
It offers greater opportunity to the opposing offenses (see below), but it also forces their teammates on the other side of the ball to keep their foot on the proverbial gas at all times (see above) . . .
Peak Lamar
While Cousins and Burrow had great fantasy days, Lamar Jackson finished Week 5 as QB1, thanks in part to that generous Bengals defense.
Jackson, named AFC Offensive Player of the Week, went 26-for-42 for 348 yards, with four touchdowns and no interceptions, plus 55 rushing yards, in the Ravens' 41-38 road win in Cincinnati.
It was the second time in Jackson's career that he has had 300 yards and four touchdowns passing plus 50 yards rushing, and he's the only player in NFL history who has done that more than once.
He also heads into Week 6 firmly locked in as fantasy's QB1 overall with 26.1 points per game, well ahead of Jayden Daniels, who's QB2 with an average of 22.3 points per game . . .
No Slowing Down
Derrick Henry's long been called a closer, and he did just that on Sunday.
After Bengals kicker Evan McPherson missed a potentially game-winning field goal in overtime, Henry delivered the knockout blow.
On the first play of Baltimore's drive, Henry ripped off a 51-yard run down the sideline, topping out at 21.46 mph to set up first-and-goal and silence the Cincinnati crowd. Moments later, Justin Tucker drilled the game-winner, giving the Ravens an iconic 41-38 victory.
That 21.46 mph speed was the fifth-fastest of the year, per Next Gen Stats.
Henry also became the third player age 30 or older with 500-plus rushing yards and five-plus rushing TDs in the first five games of a season. He joined Curtis Martin and Priest Holmes (both in 2004).
Henry currently sits at RB2 on the season with an average of 22.0 points per game . . .
Still Rolling
As ESPN.com's John Keim noted this week, no team has been as high-powered as the Commanders over the past four games.
During that stretch, Washington has averaged an NFL-best 33.8 points and 409 yards per game. New Orleans was the top-ranked scoring offense (31.8 points) entering Sunday, built on a combined 91 points in the first two games. Washington is now averaging 31.0 points for the season.
With rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Commanders can hurt teams even when struggling.
NFL.com's Nick Shook noted that even though pressure from Cleveland's front seven was able to challenge Daniels, he figured it out by the second quarter.
Daniels finished the contest 14-of-25 for 238 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He also rushed for 82 yards, becoming the first player in NFL history to rush throw for at least 1,000 yards and rush for at least 250 yards in his first five games . . .
Finally Rolling?
Did Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence bust his slump?
The Jaguars were the lone remaining winless team. Lawrence hadn't won a start since Nov. 26, 2023, losing nine consecutive contests. That also happened to be the last time Lawrence threw for 300 yards.
Those streaks ended Sunday on Lawrence's 25th birthday, as he played his best game of the season in a win over the Colts.
As ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco noted, the Jaguars had scored a total of 60 points and only topped 300 yards twice in their first four games. They put up 497 against the Colts, which was the most they've had since putting up 503 in an overtime victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Dec. 18, 2022, and the most yards they've had in regulation since they had 507 in a 34-27 loss at Carolina on Oct. 6, 2019.
Lawrence threw for a career-high 371 yards and two touchdowns and posted the third-highest completion percentage of his career (82.4). He had yet to throw for more than 220 yards in the first four games of the season or surpass 300 yards since he threw for 364 in the Jaguars' 24-21 victory at Houston on Nov. 26, 2023.
It was the kind of confidence-building performance he needed as the Jaguars head to London for back-to-back games, starting with Chicago in Week 6 . . .
Tank Gaining Traction
Also in Jacksonville, running back Tank Bigsby was a solid complement to Travis Etienne Jr.. for the first four weeks, but with Etienne still dealing with a sore shoulder, Bigsby took the lead role Sunday. He ran for 101 yards on 13 carries -- both career highs -- against the Colts, which included a 65-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Etienne (six carries for 17 yards and six catches for 43 yards) spent much of the fourth quarter on the sideline.
How should fantasy investors process this information?
First and foremost, Bigsby should be a priority waiver-wire target.
As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke suggested, Bigsby has been the better runner this season.
"There's a chance the Jaguars go back to the normal rotation this week," Jahnke added, "but based on the fourth quarter of this game, it's also possible Bigsby will be the primary running back going forward . . ."
This And That
Speed Checks
Jaguars rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. ran the 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds at the combine in February, so it wasn't surprising that he sped past the Colts' defensive backs on his 85-yard touchdown catch. But what is more impressive is that he reached a top speed of 22.15 mph on the play, per NFL Next Gen stats.
That's the fastest speed of any ball carrier this season and the second-fastest in the last four years . . .
Chuba Hubbard reached a top speed of 20.68 mph on his 38-yard TD run against the Bears, his fastest speed as a ball carrier of his career.
Hubbard gained plus-31 rushing yards over expected on the play, which had a 0.3 percent TD probability . . .
Green Bay tight end Tucker Kraft's 66-yard catch-and-run touchdown against the Rams was the longest by any NFL tight end this season and the longest score by a Packers tight end since Tom Crabtree's 72-yarder in 2012, per ESPN Research.
Kraft reached a top speed of 19.7 mph, the highest top speed for a tight end on a scoring play this season . . .
Saving The Best For Last
Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce entered the fourth quarter of Sunday's game in Jacksonville without a target on 29 routes run, but he hauled in all three of his targets after that point against the Jaguars, totaling 134 yards and a touchdown.
All three of Pierce's targets and receptions came 20-plus yards downfield. Pierce has accumulated 295 receiving yards on deep targets this season, most in the NFL entering Sunday afternoon . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
After Sunday's win over the Raiders, head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Bo Nix joked in their separate press conferences about a heated exchange they shared on the sideline.
Broncos HC Sean Payton and rookie QB Bo Nix had this exchange on the sideline after Denver punted in their last drive.
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 6, 2024
?: FOX pic.twitter.com/CxGDEA023i
In his Monday news conference, Payton noted that he "absolutely" likes that Nix is willing to speak up.
"All good. It's the heat of the moment, it's the game," Payton said. "It's competitive, he's fiery. We're in the business of passion. We're looking for passion, and we're looking for people who have passion for the game -- not other things. I think that it's so important to him.
"Again, I loved his response. We're on to the next play, and it's nothing."
I suggest it's easier for Payton to downplay this issue after a pair of wins.
It also helps that Nix has made strides over his first five games, reaching a new high passer rating at 117.2 against Las Vegas. He completed 19-of-27 passes for 206 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in the contest.
Nix has now completed 61.8 percent of his throws for 866 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions. He's also rushed for 119 yards with three TDs.
Even if you don't think Nix has been good, you can't say he's not getting better.
The rookie is currently QB 19 with an average of 13.7 points per game.
Compare that to Patrick Mahomes II, who's one spot ahead of Nix at QB18 with 14.0 points per game, and Rodgers, who is QB20 with a 13.6-point-per-game average . . .
The Bad
Two teams are feeling bad enough about their QB play to make changes at the most critical position on the field, and a third has no choice.
First, the Patriots announced that rookie first-round pick Drake Maye will start Sunday's game against the Texans.
As ESPN.com's Mike Reiss noted, head coach Jerod Mayo said last week that it was "unsustainable" to keep playing offense the way they have and expect to win.
Up to this point, the Patriots' lack of consistent pass protection had been the primary reason for offensive struggles. The blocking was better against the Dolphins, putting more of the spotlight on Jacoby Brissett's struggles.
In Las Vegas, initial reports this week indicated that the Raiders would have a quarterback competition between Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell.
That plan changed Wednesday when head coach Antonio Pierce announced that O'Connell would start Sunday's game against the Steelers.
Minshew was benched after throwing two interceptions -- including a 100-yard pick-six -- during the loss to Denver. In five games, he completed 70.7 percent of his passes for 1,014 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions. O'Connell, who started 10 games as a rookie last year, has completed 19-of-32 passes in 2024 for 176 yards with a touchdown and a pick in mop-up duty.
Pierce touted O'Connell's growth as a leader as one factor for why he's making the switch, which will be permanent.
Unless it's not.
"I don't plan on making switches any time," Pierce said. "When it's time to make a switch, we'll make a switch . . ."
In New Orleans, rookie Spencer Rattler will start at quarterback, with Derek Carr expected to miss at least two games with an oblique injury.
Rattler and Maye join Caleb Williams, Daniels, and Nix as the fourth and fifth rookie quarterbacks to start this season.
Changing quarterbacks in the middle of the season is never good, but the outcomes might be. We'll hope for the best . . .
The Ugly
Meanwhile, the team that arguably most needs a quarterback change won't be making one.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski said after Sunday's 34-13 loss to the Commanders, the team will not be benching quarterback Deshaun Watson.
"We're not changing quarterbacks," Stefanski said. "We need to play better. I need to coach better, and that's really what it is."
Stefanski isn't wrong about needing to play and coach better.
But as Shook wrote, "It doesn't take even a full game's worth of tape to understand how Watson is holding this team back."
Watson was 15-of-28 for 125 yards and a touchdown that came with his team down 34-6 in the fourth quarter, and the Browns, who entered Week 5 with the worst third-down offense in the NFL, failed to convert all 12 of their third-down attempts with Watson at the helm.
Again, this was against a Commanders defense that entered the game with the third-worst EPA in the league.
And if you're not sure Watson is the problem, Yahoo's Liz Roscher offers this reminder: "Since being traded to the Browns, Watson has played in 17 games and made 19 total touchdown passes, both of which are less than the number of lawsuits he's settled (23) since coming to Cleveland . . ."
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
You can listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
