Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
Inevitable?
It started innocently enough. Sports Illustrated shared a post on social media quoting my friend Michael Fabiano, who suggested receiver Davante Adams might have already taken his last snap with the Raiders.
Things accelerated quickly after head coach Antonio Pierce's verified Instagram account "liked" that post.
Interesting … look who liked this post. pic.twitter.com/svAwY30rDc
— Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) October 1, 2024
All this happened Monday evening. By Tuesday morning, Vinny Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal had reported that the Raiders were open to trading Adams. So much so that a source told Bonsignore the club has begun reaching out to teams to gauge interest in the veteran wide receiver.
Then, as Profootballtalk.com noted, Adams had an opportunity to shut down the trade rumors during an interview on "Up & Adams" on Tuesday.
He did not take that opportunity.
Host Kay Adams pointed out that many think he has played his last down for the Raiders and asked what he would say to that. "All I can control is this talk we're having right here. And then after we're done with this, all I can control is the next thing that I'm on to," Davante Adams said.
The wideout added he had yet to hear from Pierce about any of this, but he made it clear that he would like to. Kay Adams finished the interview by saying, "I hope you hear from your coach today," to which Davante Adams replied, "I do, too."
It's reasonable to believe the desired conversation occurred later Tuesday because that's when NFL Network's Mike Garafolo and Ian Rapoport reported that Adams had informed the team he wanted a trade.
ESPN's Adam Schefter chimed in a short time later by reporting the Raiders informed other teams that they would "consider" trading Adams for a package that would include a second-round pick and additional compensation.
All this in less than 24 hours.
Given how it's all played out, a move now seems inevitable.
Adams, who agreed to the Raiders trade partly to reunite with his college quarterback at Fresno State, Derek Carr, only played one year with him in Las Vegas as Carr was released in spring 2023. Since then, Adams, who had only two quarterbacks since high school in Carr and Aaron Rodgers, has caught passes from Jarrett Stidham, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, Aidan O'Connell, and Gardner Minshew II.
Adams has 18 catches for 209 yards and a touchdown through three games this season. He has 221 catches for 2,869 yards and 23 touchdowns in 37 games with Las Vegas.
What's Next?
Adams' salary for this season is $17.5 million, with $13.5 million still owed through the end of the season. And while he is under contract for 2025 and 2026, his annual salary jumps to $36.25 million each season. With such a hefty price tag, a trade partner would likely have to get Adams to agree to a restructured contract.
According to Footballguy Jason Wood, the teams with the cap room to do this without making any other adjustments are the 49ers, Browns, Patriots, Lions, Commanders, Cowboys, Cardinals, and Jets.
Of course, the Jets make the most sense overall.
Rapoport acknowledged this on Thursday morning when he wrote, "If Adams gets his wish, he'll eventually be a member of the New York Jets, playing with his friend and four-time NFL Most Valuable Player, Rodgers."
That said, even though SI.com's Albert Breer reports that other teams interested in Adams are convinced the Raiders star is intent on engineering a trade to the Jets, Rapoport contends that Adams is still open to playing elsewhere.
Rapoport added that the Saints, Steelers, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, and 49ers are among the teams that either have inquired about the six-time Pro Bowler or are places Adams would be happy landing.
We shall see. It's possible that Rodgers, the on-field general manager, has already convinced the team's front-office GM, Joe Douglas, to get on board.
Pierce Mum
For the record, Pierce was asked about Adams' status at the start of his Wednesday press conference and declined to discuss anything related to the flurry of reports on Tuesday.
"Davante's dealing with a hamstring, he's rehabbing, the rest of us are focused on Denver," Pierce said.
Asked specifically about his verified Instagram account liking that SI post (the like was later removed). Pierce replied: "Yeah, I'm just focused on Denver."
Pierce added that he doesn't believe the situation will be a distraction to the Raiders (really?) as they prepare to play this week and that he speaks to Adams "often" but declined to share anything about the nature of those conversations.
It seems likely the conversation soon enough will include farewells . . .
The King Lives
Ravens running back Derrick Henry only needed one carry to put his team on a path to victory last Sunday night. He took a handoff from Lamar Jackson and rambled 87 yards for a touchdown that put the Ravens up 7-0 just over four minutes into the game. Henry would run 23 more times for 112 more yards in a 35-10 win that moved the Ravens to 2-2 on the season.
He finished the game with 199 yards rushing, 10 yards receiving, and two touchdowns.
It marked his eighth career game with 200 yards from scrimmage and multiple touchdowns, which ranks behind only LaDainian Tomlinson (10) in NFL history.
On Wednesday, the NFL announced that Henry was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week.
Heading into a favorable Week 5 matchup with the Bengals, Henry is in a good spot.
For the season, he leads the NFL with 480 yards rushing, the most by any player through four games since 2021 -- when Henry ran for 510 yards in the first four games. The aforementioned 87-yard scoring run was the longest rushing touchdown by any player on his team's opening offensive play of the game since 2013, when Terrelle Pryor had a 93-yard touchdown on the Raiders' opening play against the Steelers, according to ESPN Research.
That run was impressive. As NFL.com's Grant Gordon wrote, "This wasn't Henry the freight train, this was a bullet train."
Indeed. The 30-year-old Henry hit a maximum speed of 21.29 mph on that run, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
How does that stack up against the NFL on the whole?
Henry tied the fourth-fastest speed by a ball carrier this season. That was the eighth-fastest speed reached by a ball carrier since Next Gen Stats tracking began in 2018.
In that time, Henry has now hit 20 mph 27 times. Only one player in the NFL consistently runs faster with the ball in his hands than Henry.
Only Tyreek Hill, who has hit 20 mph 73 times, has reached the 20 mph mark while carrying the ball more times than Henry, who is currently RB3 overall, has.
Hill is one of the fastest players the NFL has ever seen, and the fact that he's hit 20 mph almost three times as many times as any other ball carrier is a testament to his speed. But as PFT's Michael David Smith suggests, Henry being in second place, at nearly 250 pounds, is downright amazing.
As wrote in a Fantasy Notebook in March of this year, "I often cite an old cliché that maintains there are two things you can't coach at the NFL level: Size and speed.
"Henry is 6-3 and 247 pounds. He posted the seventh-fastest speed in the NFL last season.
"Now Henry heads to Baltimore, where he'll work alongside Jackson, the most dangerous running quarterback in the league, and behind a Ravens offensive line that ranked seventh as a run-blocking unit on Footballguy Matt Bitonti's 2023 Offensive Line Rankings.
"Yes, Henry turned 30 in January. Yes, he has had the most rushing attempts since 2018 (1,744).
"Also, yes, he's still big and very fast.
"Henry is closing in on RB1 territory in ongoing best balls. Draft accordingly, kids."
I know I did. Hope you did, too . . .
Collins Shaking Things Up
NFL.com's Kevin Patra, following the Texans' 24-20 win over the Jaguars, wrote: "When in doubt, throw it to Nico Collins."
That was Houston's game plan on Sunday.
With zero consistency from a ground game that missed Joe Mixon, the Texans offense struggled to sustain drives in the second half. But whenever C.J. Stroud needed a big play, he targeted No. 12.
Collins put up a career-high 12 catches for 151 yards and one TD. No other Texan generated 70 receiving yards. Patra noted that Collins' production isn't of the dink-and-dunk variety. Collins totaled 115 of his 151 receiving yards on 10 targets over 10-plus air yards.
Collins is proving his three-year, $72 million offseason payday was a wise move by Houston. He's earned 80-plus receiving yards in each of his last six games, the longest streak in team history. Whenever Stroud gets into a bind, he looks Collins' way. The wideout rarely lets him down.
He's also getting the job done for fantasy investors.
Through four games, Collins has an NFL-high 489 receiving yards. That's not just the best in the NFL; it's the best by a margin of more than 100 yards. Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers is second, with 386 receiving yards, 103 behind Collins.
With an average of 122.3 receiving yards per game, Collins is on a record pace: If he averages 122.3 for 17 games, he'll finish with 2,079 receiving yards, which would break Calvin Johnson's NFL record of 1,964 yards in 2012.
As PFT's Smith pointed out, the Texans have a talented trio of receivers with Stefon Diggs joining Collins and Tank Dell, but Collins is the clear No. 1, with more than twice as many receiving yards as Diggs and more than four times as many receiving yards as Dell.
Collins is showing that he's one of the best receivers in the NFL, and he's also making an argument in the fantasy world.
The third-year man is currently WR2 with his 22.7 points per game just behind Malik Nabers and his 22.9 points per game . . .
Swift Strikes Back
Just when it seems like we're gaining clarity on a situation, the fantasy gods intervene.
I know. That's an easy out. But explaining the sudden reversal of D'Andre Swift's fortunes is hard without introducing the preternatural.
As NFL.com pointed out, the former Lion and Eagles running back spent much of the week as the butt of social media jokes after his Week 3 struggles (20 yards on 13 carries).
Bigger picture: Swift averaged 1.8 yards per carry and had 114 yards from scrimmage through the first three weeks of the season.
Based on all that, ESPN's Dan Graziano advised readers late last week to watch for Roschon Johnson to get an extended look against the Rams.
"Chicago has struggled mightily to run the ball and turned to Johnson, more of a bruiser, for eight carries in Week 3 vs. the Colts," Graziano wrote. "The Bears need to get downhill faster."
They did.
But it was Swift, displaying better decisiveness, who knifed through the Rams' defense for 93 rushing yards on 16 carries with a 36-yard touchdown run. Swift also led the Bears with 72 receiving yards on seven catches.
Swift generated more total yards (165) in Week 4 than in Weeks 1-3 combined (114).
To be fair, Johnson played more snaps as expected, but Swift had his best game as a Bear.
Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke noted that Swift remained the clear RB1 on early downs. Swift took all of the early-down snaps in the first quarter. The two received a near-even split in the second and third quarters -- 12 snaps for Swift and 10 for Johnson. In the fourth quarter, it was all Swift outside of kneeldowns.
Not only did Swift hold the early-down role, but he also played the majority of two-minute drill snaps.
Jahnke summed up, "After this game, it is a bit safer to put Swift in fantasy starting lineups again . . ."
Brown Stakes A Claim
The Bengals' 0-3 record stood as what NFL.com's Nick Shook characterized as "a bit of a mirage" to those who didn't watch them closely in their first few weeks because, after an ugly debut in Week 1, they've played quality football on the offensive side.
Finally, that reality produced a triumph.
Joe Burrow put together another excellent day, completing 22 of 31 passes for 232 yards and two touchdowns.
But it's also worth noting that the team's rushing attack carried over the positive momentum from Week 3 into another productive day in Week 4, with Chase Brown and Zack Moss combining for 131 yards and two touchdowns on 30 attempts. Brown led the way with 80 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Bengals' first victory of the season.
Wait . . . Chase Brown? The guy we mostly drafted as the de facto lead back heading into the season?
Brown and Moss split carries with 15 each. Brown averaged two more yards per carry than Moss. According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, Moss ran five more routes, but Brown had more short-yardage and goal-line work.
More importantly, Brown has been effective when used.
He now leads the NFL in success rate. Brown finished Sunday's game with 24 rushing yards over expectation on his first 15 carries, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Still, Jahnke contends the usage suggests Moss remains the running back to roster of the two.
That being the case, could Brown be a sell-high option coming off a huge game?
Assuming this is going to remain a timeshare that could favor either player involved over the other any given Sunday, trying to leverage Brown's two-TD effort makes sense . . .
King Of The Hill
In a recent edition of the Fantasy Notebook, I pointed out that over the last two seasons, neither of which featured Taysom Hill making a start at quarterback, the Saints all-purpose weapon had a combined 20 rushing attempts plus targets, resulting in eight touchdowns, in goal-to-go situations.
Travis Kelce (26 and 11) was the only tight end with more of either.
The Saints got off to a fast start this season. I credited Klint Kubiak's scheme as a primary reason for their 45.1-point per-game average over the first two games.
However, they were held to just 12 points in Week 3 by an Eagles defense that's been remarkably generous every other week this season.
What was missing in Week 3?
Hill.
Look, my argument isn't that Hill is a primary reason for the Saints' offensive success. But it's fair to say he's a straw that stirs the drink.
As ESPN.com's Katherine Terrell noted, in Sunday's loss to the Falcons, it was clear how much Hill was needed after he scored two touchdowns in the first quarter and left with an injury.
That's two games in which their offensive output dropped sharply when Hill wasn't in the lineup.
According to Jahnke, Hill played in 15 of a possible 25 snaps over the team's first four drives in Atlanta, carrying the ball six times and running four routes.
Hill lined up twice at quarterback, three times at halfback, three times at fullback, once at tight end, five times in the slot, and once out wide.
Jahnke noted that in standard leagues, Hill's performance led to more fantasy points than all but 10 tight ends over the first three weeks.
As I suggested in August, in a fantasy environment where consistent tight-end production is hard to come by, there's something to be said for a player listed as a tight end who plays multiple positions and gets high-leverage opportunities on a regular basis . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
Six days after his dazzling "Monday Night Football" showing against Cincinnati, Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels authored a brilliant encore by going 26-for-30 passing for 233 yards and a touchdown in a 42-14 road victory over the Cardinals. He added 68 rushing yards and two more TDs to round out his 22-point fantasy outing.
It was the third straight win for the Commanders, who are 3-1 and in sole possession of first place in the NFC East. They are averaging 30.3 points and scored more each week than they did the week before. As NFL.com noted, one of the most notable things that happened Sunday was that Washington punter Tress Way punted. Once. It was the first time the Commanders had punted since Week 1.
But Daniels, who finds himself in this spot in the Fantasy Notebook for a second-straight week, has been the most notable thing by far.
Daniels is the first quarterback in league history to have back-to-back games with a completion percentage of 85 percent or higher.
He's completed 82.1 percent of his passes through four games, the highest completion percentage that any quarterback has posted through the first four games of any NFL season. Tom Brady previously held the mark by completing 79.2 percent of his passes through the first four games of the 2007 season.
In addition, Daniels has 218 rushing yards this season, which is the second most by a QB in his first four career games since the Super Bowl era began in 1966, per ESPN Research. First on the list is former Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III, who had 234 in 2012.
Daniels is currently QB2 after scoring an average of 22.9 points per game . . .
The Bad
With the Adams soap opera dominating the news, it's easy to forget the Raiders rebounded in Week 4 after a tough loss to the Panthers the week prior, picking up a 20-16 victory over the Cleveland Browns.
After three games of basically nothing, the rushing attack finally woke up Sunday, but not because of Zamir White, who continues to underwhelm.
White averaged under three yards per carry for the second time this season, as the former Georgia standout rushed for just 2.9 yards per on 17 carries. White also had a costly turnover on Sunday, fumbling on the first play of the fourth quarter, which led to a scoop and score touchdown for the Browns.
Meanwhile, Alexander Mattison impressed again on Sunday, rushing for 60 yards on just five carries, and the 60 yards were the most any Raiders back has tallied in a game this season.
White is a talented player, but the 2022 fourth-round pick isn't producing on the field. Mattison has been the better back and gives Las Vegas' offense a better chance of running a clean operation.
Don't be surprised if Mattison plays a more significant role moving forward . . .
The Ugly
Ravens tight end Mark Andrews will be a significant factor in the passing game in upcoming games, according to head coach John Harbaugh.
"Andrews is going to definitely have big games here catching the ball. We're going to have a big passing game coming up here at some point in time soon. It's hard to predict when it's going to be because the games go where they go, and the ball goes where it goes, and it's just a competitive deal," Harbaugh said.
Okay.
Andrews has indeed been Jackson's favorite target over the previous six seasons. But, though four games in 2024, Andrews has six catches for 65 yards, which ranks 30th among NFL tight ends and sixth on the Ravens.
As ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley explained, the primary reason for Andrews' drop in productivity has been Baltimore going to a run-heavy offense lately with Henry. The Ravens have thrown the ball 34 times in the past two weeks, which ranked 30 in the league over that span.
But there's more to it than that.
According to Zachariason, Andrews has seen horrible route participation over his last two games. He's been under the 50 percent mark in both outings, a number he only fell below last season when he was injured. As a result, he's had just one target in each of his last two games. Zachariason notes that's the first time Andrews has seen two one-target games in a season since 2018, his rookie year.
In addition, expecting Harbaugh's prediction of a big outing to come this week seems like a reach because the Ravens next face the Bengals, whose defense ranks 25th against the run and 10th against the pass.
Andrews is currently TE39 with an average of 3.1 fantasy points per game. It could get uglier before we see a resurgence . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
You can listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
